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    How Will the Twins Approach a Thin Free Agent Pitching Class?

    Ted Schwerzler

    By Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins constructed a 2023 team built around significant depth. After having to cycle through a handful of arms to complete the season, they became one of the best rotations in baseball. Repeating means they’ll need to add, but how?

     

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    Going into the season, the front office made a difficult decision to flip fan-favorite batting champion Luis Arraez in exchange for Pablo Lopez. That worked out wonderfully for both teams, and the Twins got an Ace. They backfilled Arraez’s spot with Edouard Julien and now have much more praise for the move.

    Lopez will be back and start on Opening Day for Minnesota. Behind him, Sonny Gray is not expected to be back. Sure, he is a free agent and could be signed to a new deal by Minnesota, but he will have no shortage of suitors, and the front office shouldn’t be paying him for the Cy Young performance he put up this season. Allocating dollars to Gray would need to include a belief in his performance over the next two or three years, and Derek Falvey could undoubtedly opt to spend those dollars elsewhere.

    Therein lies the rub. This free-agent pitching class isn’t exactly ideal. Shohei Ohtani wasn’t ever going to be likely for the Twins, but he isn’t a pitcher next season, and the prognosis for the future remains uncertain. That leaves the top names being Blake Snell and Aaron Nola. Again, there will be no shortage of suitors for their services this year, and Snell coming off a Cy Young award isn’t going to drive his price down at all.

    Looking at the Twins rotation, though, it might not be about spending on the open market at all. The Twins know they need to increase pitching depth and doing something like pushing Bailey Ober to Triple-A makes sense. This year, that would probably come in the form of Louie Varland, but doing so with a starter that slots in just above him can’t happen.

    Lopez will be the ace, and then some combination of Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and Ober will work behind him. Adding a Gray-level starter or someone better than Kenta Maeda needs to be the plan, and they can find that match by contacting the 29 other teams.

    When looking to restock the Twins rotation, Derek Falvey hasn’t spent significantly on a starting pitcher. Lopez’s dollars came through an extension, and Gray had already brought team control with him. That means working a trade is already a path he has shown plenty of ability to do and has created depth within the rotation.

    The front office may consider a few depth arms worth packaging toward a more prominent player. Brent Headrick, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Cory Lewis are all varying degrees of players who may fall into this category. There is also the glut of infield options that the Twins have at their disposal. Brooks Lee is likely off the table, but Yunior Severino, Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, Luke Keaschall, and Tanner Schobel are prospects for which playing time may eventually need to be found.

    Hitting on another arm through trade is something that should also bring a level of comfort due to the recent track record. Sure, the Twins front office has their fair share of misses, but the last two frontline starters that have been acquired represent substantial wins. It’s not every trade that you’ll find a Joe Ryan-for-Nelson Cruz lopsided outcome, but being able to effectively scout yourself and the competition when making big swings is a skill.

    No matter how the Twins go about player acquisition this offseason, they will have multiple options. Just because the crop on the open market may be expensive or less-than-ideal doesn’t mean the Twins have to participate. Falvey has done a great job reminding us that his work construction isn’t done until Opening Day arrives. 

    A blogger for over a decade, passion for baseball and the Minnesota Twins runs deep. Whether at the ballpark or on the couch, I'm probably tweeting.
    Follow Ted Schwerzler on Twitter: tlschwerz

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    Wizard11

    Wizard11 479

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Given the unknowns about the Twins TV deal I think the chance of one of the “top” (aka expensive) starters landing in MN is zero.  MN has the nation’s fifth highest state tax rate and is the coldest place baseball is played.  Local fans often try to discount these factors but for those outside of MN it is a big deal. For most high end FAs it is going to require more than matching big market bids. We are mostly going to get the overpays like Donaldson or those with limited choices like Correa.  Not a lot of these in most off seasons.  Many fans chant the annual chorus of “they should go get…(fill in name with a hyper expensive FA) as if it were a matter of simply ordering from Amazon.  This year more than most I think the odds of that are near zero.  
     

    I suspect the FO hope is that Paddack can replace some of Gray’s production.  Bringing Maeda back would make a lot of sense.  He pitched well last year and one more year removed from TJ should bring better results and stamina.  
     

    A trade may be an option but a lot of player capital was spent on the Gray, P. Lopez, Mahle, and J. Lopez trades.  A rebound candidate like Gioloto and/or a Pineda like deal for Mahle seem more probable

    Brandon

    Brandon 3,757

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    18 minutes ago, Wizard11 said:

    Given the unknowns about the Twins TV deal I think the chance of one of the “top” (aka expensive) starters landing in MN is zero.  MN has the nation’s fifth highest state tax rate and is the coldest place baseball is played.  Local fans often try to discount these factors but for those outside of MN it is a big deal. For most high end FAs it is going to require more than matching big market bids. We are mostly going to get the overpays like Donaldson or those with limited choices like Correa.  Not a lot of these in most off seasons.  Many fans chant the annual chorus of “they should go get…(fill in name with a hyper expensive FA) as if it were a matter of simply ordering from Amazon.  This year more than most I think the odds of that are near zero.  
     

    I suspect the FO hope is that Paddack can replace some of Gray’s production.  Bringing Maeda back would make a lot of sense.  He pitched well last year and one more year removed from TJ should bring better results and stamina.  
     

    A trade may be an option but a lot of player capital was spent on the Gray, P. Lopez, Mahle, and J. Lopez trades.  A rebound candidate like Gioloto and/or a Pineda like deal for Mahle seem more probable

    Ouch!  This hurts cause you’re probably right.  And that is why we look more towards the trade market for starters. I wonder if the Twins could help Giolito get back on track.  I could be on board with this. 

    I like the idea of Odorizzi or even resigning Keuchel as a depth piece in AAA.  

    LA Vikes Fan

    LA Vikes Fan 8,136

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

    Given the unknowns about the Twins TV deal I think the chance of one of the “top” (aka expensive) starters landing in MN is zero.  MN has the nation’s fifth highest state tax rate and is the coldest place baseball is played.  Local fans often try to discount these factors but for those outside of MN it is a big deal. For most high end FAs it is going to require more than matching big market bids. We are mostly going to get the overpays like Donaldson or those with limited choices like Correa.  Not a lot of these in most off seasons.  Many fans chant the annual chorus of “they should go get…(fill in name with a hyper expensive FA) as if it were a matter of simply ordering from Amazon.  This year more than most I think the odds of that are near zero.  
     

    I suspect the FO hope is that Paddack can replace some of Gray’s production.  Bringing Maeda back would make a lot of sense.  He pitched well last year and one more year removed from TJ should bring better results and stamina.  
     

    A trade may be an option but a lot of player capital was spent on the Gray, P. Lopez, Mahle, and J. Lopez trades.  A rebound candidate like Gioloto and/or a Pineda like deal for Mahle seem more probable

    I agree although i would prefer to se them re-sign Gray than Maeda. I suspect the Twins will re-sign one of those two - maybe Gray for 3 years 65-70m, or Maeda for 2 years, 15m - and then seek depth by picking up a bounce back candidate like a rehabbing Odorrizzi or someone coming of a poor year like Giolito, Paxton or Montas. I'd love to see them make a run at Montgomery or Rodriquez but I think they will be too expensive.  Paddack goes to #3 after Lopez and Gray, or #2 wiwth Maeda #4. 

    KBJ1

    KBJ1 162

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Austin Martin needs to be up here playing center field next year.

    The free agent pitcher market is going to be way overpriced for the top 3 guys.

    The lefty Rodriguez makes some sense, but the most interesting flyer for me is the young Japanese pitcher coming on the market. Pitchers from Japan have had a lot of success here for a while now and he could be a real steal.

    Walner is at best another Kepler right now and with Julien & Brooks Lee coming up there is no reason to keep Polanco & Kepler anymore. Youth movement, unknown quantities,  scary I know, but sign a big RH bat and then move forward with the youngsters.

    Depth at 1B is an issue as well as bullpen. Need people there. 

    TwinsFan98

    TwinsFan98 10

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I am not looking forward to this offseason of the Twins looking for SP is we lose Sonny or Kenta. I was open to Lorenzen, but the fact he got moved to the pen just soured me. Hopefully Heaney opts out or by some miracle we can get Montgomery.

    SotaSports in NM

    SotaSports in NM 155

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I don't want to be a doomsday crazy guy, but a starting rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock, Varland might get us a division title in a bad division, but that won't win a playoff series, I think. To win past the Wild Card series, at least, you've got to have a very good 1-2 (and even 3) punch. I'm not saying we need to win the ALCS next year (especially because 2025, 2026 are going to be huge opportunities for us), but we need a true Sonny Gray replacement (or the man himself) if we're going to do so (yes it's risky business for a big Sonny deal, but dare I say we can afford it (considering Vasquez and Polo off the books in 27, Kep in 26, and the plethora of rookie deals to be in effect)? Yes, despite uncertainty with the TV deal. Yea, I haven't checked the payroll math, but nonetheless.

    I'm more confident in a SG deal of 3 for $75 than a Maeda deal for 2 for $15 mil (as has been discussed here).

    Granted, though. Our offense in 24 should be more potent than 23, with full seasons from healthier Lewis, Correa, Polo, and maybe even improvements from the kids (although regression is just as likely).

    I'm sorry for a long rant, but in addition to building pitching depth back up, I think we need to make a move for an equivalent of Sonny Gray, or at least a better #2 than Ryan/Ober, to get back to the ALCS. If it's gonna be a no -Sonny Gray, it'll be via trade.



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