How Long Is Eddie Rosario's Leash?

diehardtwinsfan · June 21, 2017

did you just compare him to the league as a whole, including catchers, SS, and CF and even pitchers in NL games? that doesn't make any sense to me.

He's not a good hitter. he's not a good fielder. He throws to the wrong base, and makes baserunning mistakes. He's replacement level. After 1000 ABs in the majors, not just starting out.

I did that in another post just a few days ago. I didn't do SS comparisons as he's not an SS. Rosario is an MLB league average hitter. The numbers have likely changed slightly, but he is basically a league average hitter and slightly below average for LF.

I think we need to have some reasonable expectations at the moment. Given his age and success thus far, there is little reason to think that he cannot have a successful MLB career. He may not be an all star, but he can be an above average player.

Again, if he can be upgraded, I'd do it. But I don't see Palka or Granite being an upgrade (not yet at least).

diehardtwinsfan · June 21, 2017

Like I said, I am not saying give up on him at all....I'm saying he's not all that good right now. And, not being good, that's part of the problem. While the pitching is terrible, their lack of even above average players, or great players, is a real problem. They have Sano and who else that we know is even going to be a good hitter on this roster after next year?

We are saying that your conclusion of him being "not good" is wrong. He's an average player right now, but just about every metric you look at. That's not great, but it is not the weak link on this team.

I would also add that with his offensive metrics trending in the right direction, his offensive output is likely to start changing, and that is a very good thing for Eddie as well as the Twins. I'm not saying he cannot improve, but I am saying, he is not the problem here.

diehardtwinsfan · June 21, 2017

Which is why some of us want even more young players up, to get their feet wet....like some RPs for example. So the manager might trust them next year when needed.

I doubt anyone will argue with you about the RPs, because the FO's behavior there is definitely odd, but we have also all seen what happens when a young player is called up too soon. Just look at Hicks, Buxton, or Berrios.

Mike Sixel · June 21, 2017

We are saying that your conclusion of him being "not good" is wrong. He's an average player right now, but just about every metric you look at. That's not great, but it is not the weak link on this team.

I would also add that with his offensive metrics trending in the right direction, his offensive output is likely to start changing, and that is a very good thing for Eddie as well as the Twins. I'm not saying he cannot improve, but I am saying, he is not the problem here.

There are 165 qualified hitters on the FG leader board. Rosario is 130th.

Dropping to 200 ABs, Rosario is 153rd out of 197.

Mike Sixel · June 21, 2017

I doubt anyone will argue with you about the RPs, because the FO's behavior there is definitely odd, but we have also all seen what happens when a young player is called up too soon. Just look at Hicks, Buxton, or Berrios.

And yet, I'd argue calling up Berrios last year is part of why he's good this year. He got some experience, and found ways to get better.

drjim · June 21, 2017

And yet, I'd argue calling up Berrios last year is part of why he's good this year. He got some experience, and found ways to get better.

I would also think having the talent of a top 30ish prospect and getting representative time at AAA helped him succeed.

That has very little to do with a development schedule for a handful of borderline relief "prospects".

Otto von Ballpark · June 21, 2017

I would agree. Basically every relief pitcher that people are lamenting about a lack of a call up are at best in that 13th/14th pitcher range. Can be up and down for stretches, some value while they still have options, but easily replaceable.

FWIW, the issue many of us had is that they weren't cycling guys like that. Randy Rosario wasn't called up until June 1; he and Busenitz have a combined ~14 days of MLB service so far.

They still aren't cycling guys like that, really, considering Breslow is still soaking up short low-leverage work for no discernible gain.

Dr. Evil · June 21, 2017

Eddie Rosario is 25 and coming in to his own. When I think of him the term "leash" does not even enter my mind. Yes he still has things to work on. That is to be expected. But seriously.....a leash?? No disrespect intended. But, I don't get that at all.

Otto von Ballpark · June 21, 2017

Plus they have now called up Rosario and Busenitz and it wasn't exactly inspiring. And they are probably the best of the options until Reed gets here, perhaps Melotakis.

At this point, I think Randy Rosario's struggles are more indicative of more bad bullpen judgement on the FO, than any kind of blanket condemnation of all of our minor league relievers. (And I still think Rosario's presence was more about his 40-man status than anything else, which likewise isn't an excuse when we've had 40-man spots to play with.)

I mean, the guys who are committed to Belisle and Breslow -- it's not much of a stretch to say they might pick the wrong reliever out of a group of minor leaguers too. (Which is why cycling through a couple more and letting performance dictate who stays may have been the more prudent strategy.)

diehardtwinsfan · June 21, 2017

There are 165 qualified hitters on the FG leader board. Rosario is 130th.

Dropping to 200 ABs, Rosario is 153rd out of 197.

qualified or unqualified, Rosario is major league average at the plate, and if you're using WAR, everyone has already pointed out to you why that is. I'm not trying to be a Rosario apologist. I do, however, think you are being very unreasonable in your assessment of his skills.

drjim · June 21, 2017

At this point, I think Randy Rosario's struggles are more indicative of more bad bullpen judgement on the FO, than any kind of blanket condemnation of all of our minor league relievers. (And I still think Rosario's presence was more about his 40-man status than anything else, which likewise isn't an excuse when we've had 40-man spots to play with.)

I mean, the guys who are committed to Belisle and Breslow -- it's not much of a stretch to say they might pick the wrong reliever out of a group of minor leaguers too. (Which is why cycling through a couple more and letting performance dictate who stays may have been the more prudent strategy.)

Maybe. I'll grant Rosario was probably a longshot based on a 40 man issue, but they did give him a chance to flash something. Clearly wasn't ready though.

And I think they are at least partially still committee to Belisle and Breslow because they just don't have other options. I would personally get rid of both and replace with Pressly and a cycle of relievers, but that's not exactly an inspiring option either, especially in light of what Busenitz has done. I would expect more of the same from the rest of the oft mentioned options.

Reed strikes me as the first talented relief prospect that is both healthy and close, will be interesting to see what they do with him. He may be the one that finally cooks Breslow.

drjim · June 21, 2017

Seems to me they are going with a hope for a rebound from Belisle to previous production (which is unlikely) over the small chance there is any upside in the relievers still in the minors.

Brandon Warne · June 21, 2017

He's got a 101 wRC+, has already walked more than last year and it probably requires some faith in one-year defensive stats to really bury him.

I don't think he's in any imminent danger. He makes too many boneheaded plays, as I tweeted multiple times during the Indians series, but I don't think Zack Granite is a threat to steal his starting spot.

Granite is the kind of guy you bring up as the fourth, and let him earn that kind of playing time based on how he plays in short bursts.

Brandon Warne · June 21, 2017

At this point, I think Randy Rosario's struggles are more indicative of more bad bullpen judgement on the FO, than any kind of blanket condemnation of all of our minor league relievers. (And I still think Rosario's presence was more about his 40-man status than anything else, which likewise isn't an excuse when we've had 40-man spots to play with.)

I mean, the guys who are committed to Belisle and Breslow -- it's not much of a stretch to say they might pick the wrong reliever out of a group of minor leaguers too. (Which is why cycling through a couple more and letting performance dictate who stays may have been the more prudent strategy.)

I'm confused. Why are we talking about a two-game stretch for a guy who was jumping from Double-A? It's clear he's talented.

Otto von Ballpark · June 21, 2017

Reed strikes me as the first talented relief prospect that is both healthy and close, will be interesting to see what they do with him. He may be the one that finally cooks Breslow.

Hmmm... why Reed and not Bard, even just for a AAA look at this point? 2 years age difference, but the same number of minor league innings. Bard was a first round (supplemental) pick, way back in 2012 but he basically missed his first 2-3 years with injury.

Reed was a 5th round pick in 2014, and has been relatively healthy among Twins relief prospects since then, but he just hasn't performed all that well since 2014.

And if Reed is our best hope, why did they have him first report to AA this year, and not AAA where he finished 2016? He could have been ready for a MLB look right now.

Otto von Ballpark · June 21, 2017

I'm confused. Why are we talking about a two-game stretch for a guy who was jumping from Double-A? It's clear he's talented.

Not sure. Was brought up as evidence that maybe the Twins were right not to promote any other relievers. I'm not picking on him, I've barely seen him.

Taildragger8791 · June 21, 2017

Hmmm... why Reed and not Bard, even just for a AAA look at this point? 2 years age difference, but the same number of minor league innings. Bard was a first round (supplemental) pick, way back in 2012 but he basically missed his first 2-3 years with injury.

Reed was a 5th round pick in 2014, and has been relatively healthy among Twins relief prospects since then, but he just hasn't performed all that well since 2014.

And if Reed is our best hope, why did they have him first report to AA this year, and not AAA where he finished 2016? He could have been ready for a MLB look right now.

Reed missed the first two months with an injury. They sent him to AA to get his feet under him and prove he was healthy.

jorgenswest · June 21, 2017

There are 165 qualified hitters on the FG leader board. Rosario is 130th.

Dropping to 200 ABs, Rosario is 153rd out of 197.

By what measure? I tried wOBA, RC+ and neither was that bad.

I am thinking it must be WAR but WAR has a significant problem comparing across positions and doesn't in any way project future value. Playing LF he will get significant positional adjustment that he wouldn't get as a CF.

The reality is the sum of the CF WAR is almost twice the sum of all LF WAR and left fielders as a group have the lowest combined WAR mostly due to positional adjustment.

Otto von Ballpark · June 21, 2017

Reed missed the first two months with an injury. They sent him to AA to get his feet under him and prove he was healthy.

I get that, but it doesn't seem terribly consistent with being our best minor league shot at helping the pen in 2017. For example, Melotakis finished 2014 at AA, missed the whole 2015 season, and started back at AA in 2016.

Reed feels a lot closer to guys like Bard, Hildenberger, Melotakis, etc. than our definitive best minor league pen option.

drjim · June 21, 2017

I get that, but it doesn't seem terribly consistent with being our best minor league shot at helping the pen in 2017. For example, Melotakis finished 2014 at AA, missed the whole 2015 season, and started back at AA in 2016.

Reed feels a lot closer to guys like Bard, Hildenberger, Melotakis, etc. than our definitive best minor league pen option.

I'm more basing on the way he finished last year and the reports that were coming out of spring training this year before he got hurt. Don't think a straight look at numbers from 3 years ago tells the whole story.

drjim · June 21, 2017

I wouldn't be surprised if they moved Bard pretty soon, perhaps after the Rochester all star game, or other potential promotions. Bard and Melotakis are a tick behind Reed, and Hildenberger is behind all three.

Taildragger8791 · June 21, 2017

I get that, but it doesn't seem terribly consistent with being our best minor league shot at helping the pen in 2017. For example, Melotakis finished 2014 at AA, missed the whole 2015 season, and started back at AA in 2016.

Reed feels a lot closer to guys like Bard, Hildenberger, Melotakis, etc. than our definitive best minor league pen option.

Maybe it was an age thing? Melotakis was 25 when he came back, which is pretty old to go back to A ball for a reliever. Reed was about the same age, and the jump from AA to AAA is comparitivley small so I don't think it mattered which one he started at. There isn't going to be a prescribed number of AAA appearances before he'll be called up. I think once he proves he's healthy and can pitch effectively on short rest he'll be promoted. He's definitely got more talent than anyone else at AA/AAA right now.

yarnivek1972 · June 21, 2017

Since I missed this play the first go 'round, I searched it up at Baseball Savant (video).

The remark about Castro running over to field it made me think that it was a terrible offline throw. It was actually Sano, who was set up for the relay, who nabbed it, albeit offline as well. (You can see Sano throw his arms up to call for it as Rosario reaches it so that may have influenced Rosario's decision-making.)

The baseball play is that the throw should have gone into second to keep the double play in order with just one out. Plain and simple. Or, if Abreu insisted on continuing to second, he would have been toast (but it appears he only went ahead once Rosario committed to throwing to Sano).

I will add there is a benefit for the decision-making to throw home in that situation. There run expectancy difference between a runner on 2B with one out and an runner on first with one out is .665 vs .509 (so a reduction of .155 runs to the defense's favor). Meanwhile, had Rosario cut Cabrera down at home, with Abreu on 2B with two outs would have a run expectancy of .319. I'm guessing none of that was going through Rosario's head as he tried to get behind the baseball. With a two-run lead, you have to be positive you can get a throw to nail the runner.

Again, I think the throw should have gone into second but there's some logic behind the attempt to throw a runner out at home in that situation.

Not if there is 0% chance of actually throwing that runner out. Even a perfect throw would still have been way late.

gocgo · June 21, 2017

"fading club"...we're 1.5 out! Rosario lacks discipline and consistency, but he loves the pressure. He's a gamer. He will get there.

Otto von Ballpark · June 21, 2017

I'm more basing on the way he finished last year and the reports that were coming out of spring training this year before he got hurt. Don't think a straight look at numbers from 3 years ago tells the whole story.

Actually, Reed's best numbers were from 3 years ago. It's his more recent numbers that aren't very exciting. ~25% K% at AA last year and again this year, ranking about 8th on the team, similar to Van Steensel and Nick Anderson. 22% at AAA so far last year and this year, admittedly smaller sample. His BB rate doesn't stand out either. Thought about giving him credit for minimizing HR -- but same career HR rate as Bard, a tick higher than Hildenberger, etc.

I'll grant that I missed the reports out of spring training, but his numbers didn't look very good there either before he was reassigned.

Taildragger8791 · June 21, 2017

"fading club"...we're 1.5 out! Rosario lacks discipline and consistency, but he loves the pressure. He's a gamer. He will get there.

And a week ago we were 1.5 up.

Last 10 games:

Cleveland: 7-3

Kansas City: 8-2

Minnesota: 3-7

Pretty much the definition of fading. Doesn't mean they can't come back or stay near the top, but at the moment they're sliding backwards and it's for a very real reason (nearly AL-worst pitching).

Otto von Ballpark · June 21, 2017

I wouldn't be surprised if they moved Bard pretty soon, perhaps after the Rochester all star game, or other potential promotions. Bard and Melotakis are a tick behind Reed, and Hildenberger is behind all three.

I don't mind ranking them that way, but I don't hold up the line for going on 3 months to wait for Reed either. No reason other guys couldn't have gotten a look in the interim, either at AAA or in MLB.

Where would you put Curtiss? Same age as Reed, taken one round after him, much better numbers than Reed over the past year since going to relief full-time (35% K% at AA this year, 0 HR, .138 BAA).

Seems like enough interesting arms, and enough dead weight ahead of them, and enough of a need at the MLB level, that they shouldn't be looking at their first taste of AAA in late June or July.

drjim · June 21, 2017

Actually, Reed's best numbers were from 3 years ago. It's his more recent numbers that aren't very exciting. ~25% K% at AA last year and again this year, ranking about 8th on the team, similar to Van Steensel and Nick Anderson. 22% at AAA so far last year and this year, admittedly smaller sample. His BB rate doesn't stand out either. Thought about giving him credit for minimizing HR -- but same career HR rate as Bard, a tick higher than Hildenberger, etc.

I'll grant that I missed the reports out of spring training, but his numbers didn't look very good there either before he was reassigned.

This is where looking at numbers over thinking of the actual stuff the reliever brings to the table is a mistake. Reed has a legit two pitch mix that will play in the majors, that's where the excitement came from. Bard might be there but has even more work. Hildenberger has some deception but unlikely that works. The rest are org guys.

I'm not saying ignore numbers but I think of it more as red flags at that point rather than a straight comparison that is going to mean much. Reeds numbers as a college reliever in Low A are beyond meaningless.

drjim · June 21, 2017

I don't mind ranking them that way, but I don't hold up the line for going on 3 months to wait for Reed either. No reason other guys couldn't have gotten a look in the interim, either at AAA or in MLB.

Where would you put Curtiss? Same age as Reed, taken one round after him, much better numbers than Reed over the past year since going to relief full-time (35% K% at AA this year, 0 HR, .138 BAA).

Seems like enough interesting arms, and enough dead weight ahead of them, and enough of a need at the MLB level, that they shouldn't be looking at their first taste of AAA in late June or July.

I would probably bump Curtiss too. Seems in the Bard and Melotakis tier. They will shake out soon.

Otto von Ballpark · June 21, 2017

This is where looking at numbers over thinking of the actual stuff the reliever brings to the table is a mistake. Reed has a legit two pitch mix that will play in the majors, that's where the excitement came from. Bard might be there but has even more work. Hildenberger has some deception but unlikely that works. The rest are org guys.

I'm not saying ignore numbers but I think of it more as red flags at that point rather than a straight comparison that is going to mean much. Reeds numbers as a college reliever in Low A are beyond meaningless.

I'm not really "looking at numbers over stuff"-- I guess that's a tangent of a tangent. : ) I was just skeptical that there was enough difference between Reed and guys like Bard or Melo to explain the last few months of org bullpen inactivity (even just AA to AAA movement, since these level of arms are unlikely to successfully skip the AAA step).

I'll gladly give Reed a chance, and I hope you are right about him replacing Breslow very soon, even if it seems awfully late.

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How Long Is Eddie Rosario's Leash?

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