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    How Can the 2024 Season Be Viewed as a Success for Byron Buxton?

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    Byron Buxton’s health and performance have been a positive storyline throughout spring training. With Opening Day quickly approaching, what would make the 2024 season a success for the Twins’ center fielder?

     

    Image courtesy of William Parmeter

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    One year ago, Byron Buxton was trying to find a way to get healthy enough to help the Twins during the 2023 season. Spring training was a nightmare, as he dealt with continual knee pain, so the team announced he’d begin the year in the designated hitter role. Some thought that Buxton would return to the outfield later in the season, but he was never truly healthy and was limited to 85 games, all as a DH. He hit .207/.294/.438 with 35 extra-base hits and a 98 OPS+. He described his condition last year as “feeling like a knife is in your knee every morning.” So, what’s changed for the 2024 season?

    Earlier today, our Nick Nelson published his analysis of the center field position for the Twins in 2024, and Buxton's various potential dimensions of success and failure are the main variable being analyzed there. During the offseason, Buxton underwent an arthroscopic procedure to excise the plica, a membrane flap, in his right knee. This type of surgery has a shorter recovery time than his previous procedures, and the Twins believed it would alleviate the issues he suffered through in recent years. Buxton’s attitude and performance look to be back on track this spring, which the Twins hope translates to a better regular season performance. Success in 2024 can take on multiple forms, and he likely has multiple goals he is aiming for to deem the season a success. 

    Games in Center Field
    Buxton’s career high for games in center field came in 2017, when he played 137 games and logged 1,143 innings. His defense was so good that season that he was honored with the AL’s Platinum Glove as the league’s top defender. From 2021-22, he averaged fewer than 60 games in center field while dealing with multiple injuries. Earlier this winter, reports had the Twins hoping he’d start around 80 games in center, with his remaining time coming at DH or used as rest days. However, he needs to do more than play games in center field for the season to be deemed a success, so he likely needs to accomplish more on this list. 
    Successful Season Goal: 75+ games in center field  

    OPS+
    Buxton’s offensive ability can change the entire dynamic of the Twins’ lineup. Over the last three seasons, he combined for a 131 OPS+ while averaging fewer than 80 games per season. ZiPS projects Buxton to finish the season with a 124 OPS+ in 364 plate appearances, which is more playing time than he has averaged over the last three seasons. Baseball-Reference projects him for an .817 OPS, an 86-point increase from 2023. In 2022, Buxton was an All-Star and posted an .824 OPS with 23 home runs in the season’s first half. Those totals are significant, especially if he is playing center field regularly.  
    Successful Season Goal: 120 OPS+

    Total Games Played
    In previous seasons, Buxton discussed a goal of reaching 100 games played, which he has only previously accomplished once in his big-league career. Even with limited availability, Buxton has provided tremendous value to the Twins. According to FanGraphs, Buxton averaged over 4.0 WAR in 2021-22, which translates to him being worth over $30 million per season. In 2024, the Twins will pay Buxton just north of $15 million, a value that has been easy for him to reach in previous seasons. Minnesota has paid Buxton close to $36 million in career salary, and he has provided the team with $151.7 million worth of value. 
    Successful Season Goal: 100 games played 

    Availability in October
    The Twins ended the playoff losing streak last season, but Buxton couldn’t contribute in October. He was added to the team’s roster in the Houston series after Alex Kirilloff landed on the IL with a shoulder injury. Buxton made one plate appearance, but failed to reach base. After the game, he said there was no way he could play in the field. Buxton has missed time in other playoff series during his career, too. In 2019, the Bomba Squad didn’t have Buxton in the lineup as the Yankees swept them in three games. Back in 2017, Buxton was removed from the Wild Card Game after crashing into the outfield wall. For the Twins to make a deeper run in the playoffs, the club needs its stars to play at their highest level in October. Carlos Correa showed the team what he could do in October, and he was playing through plantar fasciitis at the time. A healthy Buxton and Correa can wreak havoc on the AL playoff picture. 
    Successful Season Goal: Peak Performance in October

    Some fans likely won’t be happy unless Buxton is playing every day in center field and performing at an All-Star level. Those aren’t realistic expectations at this point in his career, but there are performance milestones he can accomplish during the 2024 campaign. The Twins are better with a healthy Buxton in the lineup, as he can be one of baseball’s best players on both sides of the ball.

    How will you view this season as a success for Buxton? Is it based on games played, offensive performance, or wins in October? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Featured Comments

    rv78

    rv78 3,125

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    17 minutes ago, UK Twin said:

    In a perfect world yes but that doesn't exist. If we look at some other star players, Ohtani won't be pitching at all this year and will be limited to DH. Angels will almost certainly manage Trout's workload to some extent after his injury problems. 

    Both are earning a LOT more than Buxton (backloaded contract notwithstanding).

    If Buxton does get any of the incentive bonuses in his contract then quite frankly we'll all be delighted and the 15mill AAV will an absolute bargain. 

    The last 2 CFers for the Twins that showed any talent remotely comparable to Buxton were Puckett and Torii Hunter. They must have lived in a perfect world that didn't exist. They played everyday. Shame on me for expecting that out of the great Byron Buxton. Between Buck and Sano, they're two of the most highly OVER-RATED and OVER-HYPED players ever to put on a Twins uniform.

    Whitey333

    Whitey333 3,632

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Anyone the values Buxtons "production"  in his career at over $150 million is certai ly not watching him "play"  To play you must be on the field or in the lineup regularly.  That value for Buxton is as absurd as the new metric era is in the game itself.

    Trov

    Trov 4,797

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    For me, if he can play 80 games in CF and 20 plus games as DH with above average offense, while stealing some bases, it will be a huge success.  I do not expect it at all.  It is great he is playing CF, but he has found about one hundred different ways to miss games in his career, I am sure he will find a new way even if he knee holds up. 

    Otaknam

    Otaknam 1,245

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    We don’t have to over think this. It’s about his health. No pulled hamstring running to first base. No concussion running into the wall. No broken hand when hit by a pitch. Sarcastically no hangnails or mystery injuries that keep him on the injured list for a month. He needs to play 140 games, with at least 120 in the outfield. 260 BA, high OPS, 25 home runs, 90 RBI. 

    bean5302

    bean5302 9,281

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    15 hours ago, mnfireman said:

    Several publications/websites are out there that have put a $$$ value on WAR, and $8 MM is about the value they have  come up with....so yes you can put a value on WAR.

    That's not exactly what those values indicate. The $8MM value is basically the total money spent / total production for free agents that teams signed. It's the free agency market value. Not truly production value.

    I generally advocate for a $6MM per WAR value for free agents as it seems like teams generally pay about $6MM per WAR they expect to get. i.e. player is expected to be a 4 WAR player = $24MM AAV. 5 WAR player = $30MM AAV, etc.

    What happens is the player expected to produce 5 WAR for $32MM actually produces 4 WAR so the teams wind up paying about $8MM/WAR due to lower than expected production.

    In terms of valuing WAR directly, it is absolutely not a direct correlation in reality and most sources make that very clear. Fangraphs talks about that specifically in that 1 WAR for an 87 win team is worth an enormous amount more than for, say, a 68 win team or a 105 win team.

    I'd also say the more value a player generates over the expected every day player is truly worth more because the additional contribution they provide reduces the burden on the rest of the entire roster. The roster is fixed. 26 people. Those 26 people need to contribute a total of about 44 WAR to expect to get into the playoffs. 9 hitters 2.5 WAR, 5 backups 1.0 WAR, 5 starters 2.3 WAR, 8 bullpen 0.6 WAR. Something like that. A position player who generates 10 WAR means the rest of the starting position players only need to average 1.5 WAR instead of 2.5 WAR, and 1.5 WAR players are easy to come by for cheap.

    mnfireman

    mnfireman 4,070

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    In terms of valuing WAR directly, it is absolutely not a direct correlation in reality and most sources make that very clear. Fangraphs talks about that specifically in that 1 WAR for an 87 win team is worth an enormous amount more than for, say, a 68 win team or a 105 win team.

     

    So, in 1972 Steve Carlton put up a 12.5 WAR season, the second best post-1927 WAR season, for the 59-97 Phillies and Gaylord Perry put up 11 WAR for the 72-84 Guardians. By this logic, the A's (WS Champions) Joe Rudi (6.1 WAR), Catfish Hunter (5.9 WAR) and two players at 5.6 WAR, were each worth close to or more than either of those 2. It wasn't their fault they put up GREAT seasons for also-ran teams. That is why I don't place much value on those type of metrics, especially when the metrics have to be quantified.



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