Could Walker Jenkins Go on a Holliday Tour?

Two years ago, during the 2022 Major League Baseball Draft, the Baltimore Orioles selected Jackson Holliday with the first overall pick. The son of former big leaguer Matt Holliday, Jackson was a tooled-up shortstop with the polish to blitz through a farm system. He was a consensus top-15 prospect across the sport before his first full season, and he did nothing to throw water on that.

After watching an impressive debut in 20 games at Low A post-draft, the Orioles started Holliday at that level in 2023. He spent just 14 games there, before making a 57-game stop at High A. Holliday posted a .940 OPS in South Atlantic League action and found his way to Double-A Bowie. More of the same results came, and his .928 OPS allowed for a 14-game cameo at Triple-A Norfolk to end the season.

Although Baltimore doesn’t need Holliday to crack their Opening Day roster, he will be in big-league camp with a wide-open opportunity to do so. Reigning American League Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson split his time between shortstop and third base last season, but figures to slide to the hot corner more permanently to make room for Holliday.

A rise through the entirety of the farm system in less than two seasons as a teenager is something we don’t see often. Nor is it something the Twins have been known to lean into. The Bryce Harper path is undoubtedly one less traveled, but if Holliday is going to make it work, it’s a blueprint that Minnesota wouldn’t hate to see Walker Jenkins follow.

Already in Fort Myers getting prepared for the season, Jenkins ranked 13th on Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list for 2024, and 16th on the Baseball Prospectus Top 101. In a 26-game sample that included 12 contests at Low A, the North Carolina native owned a ridiculous .989 OPS. He showed off the power, the speed, and the plate discipline that made him a prized prospect, while still looking like a player who could contribute in center field.

We likely won’t see Jenkins bulk up substantially this early in his professional career, but as he matures into his body, there is a sense that a future home may be on one of the corners in the outfield. His athleticism will give him every opportunity to stay in center, but the power profile will fare fine if he has to move to a corner. That's not the traditional blueprint for a player who makes such a rapid surge to the big leagues, though, so Jenkins would need to buck that trend. He profiles more like Harper or Juan Soto than like Holliday, but to get to the doorstep of the majors in a single season, he'll need to show some Holliday traits.

The Twins could have gotten more aggressive with Jenkins last season if they wanted to infuse his talent into the High-A Cedar Rapids roster for their playoff run. They opted against that, but it should be where he is expected to start most of his first half. Staying in Fort Myers until Iowa warms up makes some sense, but that shouldn’t be expected to be an extended stay. Besides, he needs to learn to hit in the cold. The sky becomes the limit if Jenkins can show well in 50 games or so for the Kernels.

Like Holliday last season, Jenkins could utilize his talent and production to push for somewhere around 50 games at Double A in 2024. He may find a way to get a Triple-A look, but that doesn’t necessarily need to happen for a 2025 debut. Also like Holliday, he would be unlikely to make the Opening Day roster next year, but being within sniffing distance at 20 years old would be great.

Rocco Baldelli must find a new corner outfielder after Max Kepler leaves. Even if he isn’t traded this offseason, it doesn’t seem likely the franchise would retain his services on the open market, and Matt Wallner has plenty to prove in 2024 if he wants to be a regular for years to come. The outfield could look much different at Target Field in a year or two, and seeing a superstar prospect be a part of that would be exciting.

What Holliday did for the Orioles last season, and the position he has put himself in to start 2024, is eye-opening to say the least. Expecting that from Jenkins probably isn't fair, but he's close to that level. He has appeared within the top 20 of multiple top-100 lists, and replicating 2023 production is only going to push him further up. Acclimating further as he rises the ranks is a must, and consistently producing loud contact is something that made him appealing in the first place. Jenkins has a plan in place for the season, and putting it together should be fun to watch.

The Twins haven’t had a prospect with Jenkins’s talent since Royce Lewis, and they haven’t had one stay healthy on the farm in even longer. This is a kid from the same vein as Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Joe Mauer. Those don’t happen often, and seeing what the meteoric rise could look like will definitely be worth watching in the year ahead.