Comparing The Rays, the Brewers, and the Twins, Part 1 (The Draft)

20 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

The Rays being as good as they are with only three drafted and developed players shows how important it is to remember that acquiring young talent can happen in a multitude of ways.  The Rays churn the trade market and aren't afraid to move players when the timing calls for it.

I appreciate this article though, one of the best on TD in quite some time.  Looking forward to the next one!

I'm sure you know this but I'll mention it for others who may not be thinking about it when they look at 24 players via trade and only 8 homegrown on the Rays roster. 

Draft and Development doesn't always mean playing for the same team. 

Sometimes draft and development success means developing players that have value in trade and are then traded.  

For example (and this is going to end up involving the Rays, Brewers and Cleveland). Caminero was acquired in a trade with Cleveland for Tobias Myers who was a prospect at the time. Cleveland I'm sure regrets this. 

Myers struggled and was released by Cleveland? The Brewers signed him as minor league free agent at age 24. Milwaukee fixed some stuff. Got some production out of him and included him in a deal with Peralta to the Mets for Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams. 

The Brewers reload and still make the world series. 

The Twins don't do this stuff very well.  

On 10/25/2026 at 7:51 AM, SE23 said:

They also are better at roster management, trading productive players at peak value to maximize returns. The Rays and Brewers are thinking 3 or 4 moves into the future, while the Twins struggle to solve today's problems (which are all-to-often yesterday's problems as well.).

We are addicted to yesterday's choices and dread admitting mistakes.

What a great post.

On 10/25/2026 at 9:51 AM, SE23 said:

while the Twins struggle to solve today's problems (which are all-to-often yesterday's problems as well.)

This sentence sums it up pretty good for me. 

This constant fixing today at the expense of tomorrow drives me crazy. 

Why is Milwaukee and Cleveland and Tampa consistently beating us today when they consistently make moves for tomorrow? 

Is it possible that you can successfully target tomorrow and still win today?

Milwaukee says yes you can. 

jmlease, I think you missed the point I was trying to make, which is probably on me for not explaining it well enough.  When a team hits 307 HR's, no one would expect them to lead the league in SB's or even be middle of the pack.  But that first season with Rocco set a tone and philosophy that the Twins would just out slug other teams.

With power such a sought after commodity, and expensive as well, it was never a sustainable model.  I don't disagree with the points you made, in fact I agree.  Guys like Kepler, Polanco and Rosario could have run more, but how that would have improved a team that struck out a lot is questionable. 

But year after year, the Twins just didn't add any players who were capable of supplying speed or even a higher level of defense to their lineup or bench.  And even after the rule changes to enhance and encourage the running game were instituted, Rocco was extremely slow to react.  Willi Castro kind of lit the fire somewhat in the 2nd half of 2023 but the Twins under Rocco just generally ignored the SB.  We never added a player like David Hamilton or Chandler Simpson who could pressure a team in late game situations as a pinch runner.

The Brewers employ David Hamilton at 3B.  A generally accepted "power" position.  Would the Twins, under Rocco, ever play a 3B with a .650 OPS and 4 HR's but 30 SB's at 3B?  Probably not.  When Cesar Tovar joined the Twins he played 70 games at 3B in 1967 and 78 in 1968.  Killebrew was primarily playing 1B with a little Rich Reese here and there.

I don't know what kind of manager Rocco was in the minor leagues.  But as a major league manager, he didn't believe in the running game.  If the Twins weren't drafting or developing speed as you say, that's on the FO for sure, but was Rocco requesting some speed and defense guys be included in drafting and developing or had he bought into the 3 run HR or a strikeout and 2 men LOB philosophy?  

The game has changed a little from 2019 and Rocco will probably get another chance to manage somewhere.  It will be interesting to see how Rocco approaches his lineup.  I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but my gut tells me speed will not be a priority to him.   

6 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

jmlease, I think you missed the point I was trying to make, which is probably on me for not explaining it well enough.  When a team hits 307 HR's, no one would expect them to lead the league in SB's or even be middle of the pack.  But that first season with Rocco set a tone and philosophy that the Twins would just out slug other teams.

With power such a sought after commodity, and expensive as well, it was never a sustainable model.  I don't disagree with the points you made, in fact I agree.  Guys like Kepler, Polanco and Rosario could have run more, but how that would have improved a team that struck out a lot is questionable. 

But year after year, the Twins just didn't add any players who were capable of supplying speed or even a higher level of defense to their lineup or bench.  And even after the rule changes to enhance and encourage the running game were instituted, Rocco was extremely slow to react.  Willi Castro kind of lit the fire somewhat in the 2nd half of 2023 but the Twins under Rocco just generally ignored the SB.  We never added a player like David Hamilton or Chandler Simpson who could pressure a team in late game situations as a pinch runner.

The Brewers employ David Hamilton at 3B.  A generally accepted "power" position.  Would the Twins, under Rocco, ever play a 3B with a .650 OPS and 4 HR's but 30 SB's at 3B?  Probably not.  When Cesar Tovar joined the Twins he played 70 games at 3B in 1967 and 78 in 1968.  Killebrew was primarily playing 1B with a little Rich Reese here and there.

I don't know what kind of manager Rocco was in the minor leagues.  But as a major league manager, he didn't believe in the running game.  If the Twins weren't drafting or developing speed as you say, that's on the FO for sure, but was Rocco requesting some speed and defense guys be included in drafting and developing or had he bought into the 3 run HR or a strikeout and 2 men LOB philosophy?  

The game has changed a little from 2019 and Rocco will probably get another chance to manage somewhere.  It will be interesting to see how Rocco approaches his lineup.  I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but my gut tells me speed will not be a priority to him.   

 

I'll add a couple of thoughts to your excellent post.

2019 was also prior to the rule changes limiting the amount of throws to hold runners on and the wider base.

Those rule changes significantly changed baseball in 2023.

I just did a quick AI search and the numbers were generated via AI and sometimes when I do that... They are not accurate so take the numbers with a grain of AI Salt.

Stolen Bases went up 40% league wide. The success ratio went up as well. Twins stolen attempt percentage went up even higher but we were 30th in the league in 2022 so the percentage uptick still left them well below the rest of the league. According to AI... The Twins went from 55 to 99 attempts. To compare... The Reds went from 91 to 238 attempts. Ronald Acuna by himself attempted 87 stolen bases in 2023. Castro was our leader with 38 attempts. 

The Twins were only caught stealing 13 times (Again According to AI). The Reds were caught 48 times. 

In my opinion... we have an opportunity this year to display increased athleticism this year. Don't know if Culpepper, Emma and Jenkins will be big stolen base guys but they should increase the possibility of a stolen base than what we have been typically rostering.  

On 10/25/2026 at 12:40 PM, tony&rodney said:

The Twins won't be close to anything until the club completes a transition to a "Defense Matters" mantra. Without gloves behind them (or a decent catcher) the pitchers are rendered virtually helpless. Striking out 15 batters per game as an average isn't a thing. Count for yourselves the number of plays made in any game in this World Series that could not be made by the Twins Opening Day 2026 lineup. 

I don't disagree with this, but I do want to call out the strawman and say the opening day 2026 defense was no longer a thing by about the six week mark.  In mid-May Lewis lost his 3B job, Lee left SS and a couple weeks later Keaschall moved to the outfield for good. Josh Bell played 1B 7 times in April, ten in May and three the rest of the way. And Wallner's glove was taken from him and flung across the river in May as well.  Most of those changes were not driven by injury or necessity, as the guys mostly kept playing, just at new places. (Lewis was in St Paul for a bit, but others just moved around.) 

The defense has been much better since things settled down. Do try to give credit when they do things better, as I think it makes for a more pleasant mood and it may encourage them to keep it up. 

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

I don't disagree with this, but I do want to call out the strawman and say the opening day 2026 defense was no longer a thing by about the six week mark.  In mid-May Lewis lost his 3B job, Lee left SS and a couple weeks later Keaschall moved to the outfield for good. Josh Bell played 1B 7 times in April, ten in May and three the rest of the way. And Wallner's glove was taken from him and flung across the river in May as well.  Most of those changes were not driven by injury or necessity, as the guys mostly kept playing, just at new places. (Lewis was in St Paul for a bit, but others just moved around.) 

The defense has been much better since things settled down. Do try to give credit when they do things better, as I think it makes for a more pleasant mood and it may encourage them to keep it up. 

I agree with that. I guess I could have included that. In more than a few other posts I have credited Shelton and his staff on those changes. I want them to complete the transition with a strong defensive catcher. Sory, but I did not include the credit in this case and you were correct in calling that out. 

I'm hoping Marek Houston is ready by June, but agree with others that someone else needs to be in place from the beginning of the year.  I also disagree with those who believe Ryan Kreidler does not have a role on the roster. Kreidler is a solid 13th player. He gets playing time at many positions when needed but is not someone who needs help dealing with his status. He will get close to 200 PA and play excellent defense everywhere. That is not as reliable/easy catch as some feel it is when filling out a roster.