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Throughout the first half, fans have frequently speculated about whether the Twins would be shopping in the starting pitcher department at the 2024 trade deadline. Chris Paddack’s recent forearm injury all but confirmed that they will be.
Paddack is in his first full season back from his second Tommy John surgery, and he already took a trip to the injured list at the end of June for arm fatigue. After returning ahead of the All-Star break, he started two games, but over the break, he felt some forearm soreness that re-shelved him.
Paddack’s season was somewhat wait-and-see. The Twins signed him to a low-end extension in 2023 as he recovered from Tommy John, because they saw something in the 28-year-old. Throughout his Twins (and Padres) career, there have been questions about his effectiveness, with high highs (such as his 2019 rookie season) and low lows (two torn UCLs).
This season has been a bit of the same story for Paddack, as he’s been inconsistent. He’s had great starts, like his eight innings of two-run ball against Cleveland in May; and he’s had terrible starts, like his five innings of nine-run ball against Baltimore in April. The Twins had four months to figure out who Paddack was.
Given that the team’s top three pitchers were already somewhat established coming into the season—some arrangement of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober—it’s understandable that the club would be interested in slow-playing Paddack, letting him prove his worth. Now, though, he’s out through at least the deadline. They have all the information they’re going to get.
Internal replacements for Paddack are scarce. Simeon Woods Richardson has already replaced Louie Varland in the rotation, and Varland has not been promising as a starter in St. Paul this season. The only other pitcher to start a game for the Twins this year is rookie David Festa, whose two spot starts for Paddack left much to be desired. Other options internally would include Randy Dobnak, Caleb Boushley, or newly-promoted Triple-A starter Zebby Mathews.
But the Twins need someone who can start a playoff game, and Paddack, at this point, can’t be counted on for that. Woods Richardson would be the best bet, but there’s not a ton of confidence in the rookie, who has overperformed both his expectations and his expected numbers this year. If he does start in the playoffs, it would more likely be at the beginning of a bullpen-heavy game.
Making a trade for a Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, or Jack Flaherty is the best way to counter this injury for Paddack and fill the playoff rotation spot. However, the injury and uncertainty might lower the bar for an acquisition below the Bailey Ober threshold.
It’s not sexy, but without Paddack, the Twins need to at least find someone who can throw competent innings down the stretch. Even if that pitcher doesn’t start a playoff game, or only goes once through the order, relying on some combination of Varland, Festa, and Dobnak to take the mound every fifth day is unbecoming of a team chasing Cleveland for the division. That opens the door for someone in the Michael Lorenzen or Tyler Anderson range. Even recently-waived James Paxton could be an option, if the goal is simply to find someone to throw innings down the stretch, a la 2023 Dallas Keuchel.
This discussion might seem like it’s ruling out a return for Paddack this season, but it’s not. Although we don’t have a timetable for his return, it’s possible that he recovers and is ready to pitch again this year. At this point, though, the Twins probably shouldn’t be planning on that. We’re weeks from that hypothetical (but not improbable) return, and by the time they have an answer, it might be too late. That’s not even factoring in potential injury to the rest of the rotation.
If Paddack is eventually back and healthy and the Twins have made a move to fill his spot in the rotation, there are a few different ways the rest of the season can go. First, as just mentioned, it’s possible that, by his return, the starting rotation (which has been largely healthy all year) is in need of an injury fill-in. That’s straightforward, though disappointing. Another disappointing option could be Paddack replacing Woods Richardson, while the rookie takes a few weeks to rest and consolidate in St. Paul as the season winds down. Paddack (as well as the rest of the rotation) is under contract for 2025, so it’s not like they’ll be cutting bait on him.
Another option may be a transition to the bullpen for the stretch run and postseason. Paddack agreed to play such a role last season, knowing he wouldn't have time to ramp up as a starter after rehabbing from the previous year's surgery. He only pitched five innings in relief across three appearances in the regular season, but he pitched well in the postseason, with two appearances totaling 3 2/3 innings, no runs, and six strikeouts. If he returns in mid-August and the rotation is full, that move might benefit the recovering pitcher whose 88 innings are already his most since 2021 (108) and the third-most of his six-year career.
No matter what the plan or outcome of Paddack’s latest injury may be, it’s clear that the Twins need to do something, and soon. They don’t have the luxury of being able to see into the future with Paddack’s arm. The odds of a move, big or small, went up drastically when Paddack hit the injured list again, which should excite fans who have been clamoring for a move (though we never celebrate an injury, of course).
Of course, all of this speculation is moot if the team is too hamstrung by budget constraints to add any players at all. Here's hoping that, given the fairly clear and increased degree of need at hand, the team is able to work around the financial constraints foisted on them by ownership, and that soon, we can stop talking about that at the end of this kind of article. The organization's voluntary self-defeat is no fun for anyone, from fans to the very people entrusted with building the team each year.
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