Can Austin Martin Become a Trusted Center Field Option for the Twins?

At the end of a recent Bobby Nightengale notebook article in the Star Tribune was this tidbit: "Austin Martin could see a lot of playing time in center field during spring training, manager Rocco Baldelli said, to become more acclimated to the position."

This is not terribly surprising, given that Martin made more starts in center (33) than anywhere else as a rookie, but as Nightengale points out, his tendency to get slow jumps led to substandard defensive performance.

“He’s a very good athlete,” said Baldelli in the piece. “I think first exposure in the big leagues, his work in the outfield probably could’ve been better than it was, but all the ability is there.”

In a small sampling of 277 innings as center fielder last year, Martin's defensive metrics were beyond brutal. Per FanGraphs, his Outs Above Average (OAA) was -4, and his UZR/150 was -15.5. Among the 60 MLB players who spent more than 200 innings in CF, only two had a worse OAA or a worse UZR/150. 

So yes, Baldelli's suggestion that Martin "could've been better" is well validated. But there are two other parts of his quote that I think are worth considering.

One: it was Martin's first exposure to the big leagues. Not only was he trying to get comfortable in the majors, but also in center field. The position is not necessarily natural for him. He spent much more time in the infield during his time in college and the minors. Martin likely struggled to make good reads and quickly react in part due to a lack of consistent reps to build muscle memory. So a commitment to giving him plenty of action there during spring training could play dividends.

Second: all the ability is there. He is indeed a good athlete. He runs well and he's got a solid arm. Martin had developed a pretty good rep as a center fielder in the minors, posting numerous highlight-reel catches, and we saw some occasional glimpses of that play-making pizzazz during his time in the majors. They were not frequent, and there were some ugly moments in between, but again: he was learning in the ropes.

Martin successfully establishing himself as a trusted option in center field is of critical importance, for both him individually and the team as a whole. 

The upside of Martin's career – the difference between a fringe big-leaguer or valued 10-year mainstay – could well hinge on this deciding factor. Although there are some reasons to believe he can tap into another level offensively (especially if he can find a bit more swing speed), Martin seems to project as an average hitter at best. Enough discipline to hold his own, but not enough power to be a threat.

That's a workable hitting profile for someone who can capably play center field. For a guy who is exclusively a left fielder, and maybe a useable second baseman? Tougher sell. 

From a team depth standpoint, the Twins desperately need Martin to be an option for them in center field, unless additions are on the way. Byron Buxton started his second-most games ever at the position (87) last year and Baldelli still needed to find another CF starter for 75 contests. With Manuel Margot out of the picture, the 40-man depth behind Buxton is currently Willi Castro, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Martin. 

Castro is also not a good defensive center fielder – his metrics were nearly on par with Martin last year – and he's got less potential to improve there. Besides, Castro can hardly be viewed as a backup when he's starting elsewhere in the lineup almost every day. 

So then you've got Keirsey, who arguably could be a rock-solid fourth outfielder but is 27 with six games of MLB experience. Keirsey is a late-blooming former fourth-round draft pick who was never a top prospect, and who was passed over by every team in the Rule 5 last offseason. Martin is a former top-five draft pick, targeted by the Twins as a key return in the José Berríos trade of 2021. It seems clear who the Twins would like to see emerge as Buxton's preferred backup, and who's got the most long-term potential, but Martin's got to go out there and prove he's up to it.

It's sounding like he'll get that chance in spring training. Even with Buxton apparently feeling as good as he has heading into a season for some time, the Twins will surely aim to keep his workload light in exhibition, so there should be ample opportunity for Martin to acclimate. Can he show enough growth to earn the team's faith? Much is at stake.