Astros 9, Twins 7: Twins Get to Blanco Early, Astros Chip Away and Pull Away in Extras

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack: 4+ IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K (68 Pitches, 44 Strikes, 64.7%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Louis Varland (-.419), Griffin Jax (-.294), Paddack (-.140)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The Twins had returned to functionality following Chris Paddack's last start, in which he allowed nine earned runs to the White Sox. That newfound competitiveness would be put to the test again Sunday, as Paddack took the mound against the Houston Astros in the rubber match of a three-game set in Minneapolis.

As terrible as Paddack was in Chicago, his stuff appeared a little better than last year, another year removed from his second Tommy John surgery. He started Sunday's tilt with the same poor results. Jose Altuve smacked a single up the middle, the scuffling Isaac Paredes laced a single down the left-field line, and after two pitches, Paddack was facing a first-and-third situation. The fastball was 94-96 MPH, but he was locating it high in the zone, where it looked like it was hanging.

Houston stacked their lineup with right-handed hitters, perhaps to counteract Paddack's changeup, but I'm not sure that was a smart strategy, as the White Sox lefties did damage in Paddack's first start. To Paddack's credit, he retired the fearsome Yordan Alvarez on a sacrifice fly, and after another single from Christian Walker, he retired Jeremy Pena and Yainer Diaz quickly to end the threat.

Facing the impressive Ronel Blanco, who recorded both a sub-3.00 ERA and a no-hitter last year, the Twins responded. Matt Wallner led off with a line-drive single, Carlos Correa walked, and Byron Buxton nearly made the game 3-1, but his fly ball was caught on the warning track in left-center field.

Normally, Twins lineups pack it in after a near miss like that, but Sunday was different. Wallner had advanced to third on Buxton's fly out, and Trevor Larnach tied the game with a sacrifice fly to right. Willi Castro worked an impressive at-bat, fouling off some 3-2 pitches and finally getting one to his liking, rifling a single to right that advanced Correa to third. Ryan Jeffers then worked a 2-2 count and launched an elevated slider off the big wall in right-center to produce a second and third run against Blanco. Blanco ended up throwing 33 pitches in the frame.

I was not overly confident in Paddack throwing a shutdown inning at this point, especially after he left another fastball elevated in the zone that Brendan Rodgers scalded up the middle for another leadoff hit. Fortunately, Zach Dezenzo grounded to Correa's right, and he made a sharp feed to Edouard Julien at second, who completed the relay for an impressive double play. Paddack then dotted a 3-2 breaking ball to Jake Meyers that was clearly a strike, but it was called a ball. Luckily, Altuve did not make Paddack pay and bounced out weakly.

The Twins continued to make Blanco work, as Mickey Gasper worked a 10-pitch walk, and Harrison Bader lined a single to left. Wallner struck out, but Correa delivered a soft liner to left to score Gasper and increase the lead. Buxton then struck out, but Larnach worked a walk. That was the end of the day for Blanco, who had thrown 62 pitches to record five outs.

Paddack allowed a 400-foot foul ball to Paredes before retiring him on a 350-foot fly ball in fair ground. Alvarez then popped out on a fastball at the top of the zone... or did he? Jeffers dropped the pop-up, but Alvarez was called for interference, since Jeffers briefly bumped him on the way to mishandling the play. The call seemed unecessary. Alvarez didn't have much of a chance to get out of the way, and Jeffers still could have gotten to the ball. Besides that, Gasper (at first) could have made the play, as well.

Paddack took the gift and struck out Walker to complete the frame. By that point, Paddack was emphasizing his breaking ball and changeup over his fastball, and locating them well, eliciting swing-and-miss and weak ground balls from the Houston hitters the second time through the lineup. Houston has struggled offensively, so that could be a factor, as well.

Either way, the Twins jumped all over reliever Luis Contreras in the fourth. Wallner stroked another single to right, Correa walked and Buxton hit a missile off the right-field (yes you read that right) wall for a double to score Wallner. Larnach then golfed a low changeup over Walker's glove to score two more.

Paddack's velocity dipped a little as the outing went along, sitting 91-93 MPH in the fifth inning. After Dezenzo walked, Meyers doubled down the left field line and Altuve reached on an error by Castro at third, to cut into the Twins' lead. Rocco Baldelli challenged the play, to no avail, and said after the game that he thought they "had completed the play, but that wasn't the ruling."

That left Paddack staring down the middle of Houston's lineup the third time through, with two on and nobody out.

Paredes hit a sharp single on a Paddack fastball to bring home Meyers, and that caused the Twins' bullpen to stir, with a presumably angry (based on the somewhat bogus interference call) Alvarez up to bat. Paddack induced a pop-up, but the ball fell right between Bader and the third baseman Castro. That prompted Baldelli to come get Paddack.

Cole Sands came in and struck out Walker on a favorable call. Pena then lined out to Bader in left, but because Bader tried to catch the runner on second napping, Altuve read the play and scored from third. Yainer Diaz then popped out to Correa to end the threat. It could have been worse, but the blowout was no longer in order.

Darren McCaughan entered for the sixth, a somewhat surprising choice given it was at that point a three-run game. But Louis Varland and Jorge Alcala had thrown the most of anyone in the past week, Sands was used for the second day in a row, and Baldelli seemed to be prioritizing using Danny Coulombe and Griffin Jax in the late innings. McCaughan also has looked really good in his brief time in the majors this year.

Not so much today. He gave up a leadoff hit to Rodgers, retired Dezenzo on a grounder and walked Meyers on a borderline 3-2 pitch. He made a great pitch to Altuve, inducing a weak pop-up from the future Hall of Famer, but Paredes lofted a single to center to score Rodgers and make it a two-run game. Baldelli made the call for Coulombe to face Alvarez. It was an intense at-bat, and on the eighth pitch, Coulombe got a little too much of the plate and Alvarez lined sharply to left field. This time, though, Bader made a great read and came in to make a diving play and preserve the lead.

After the Twins went down quietly in their half of the sixth, Justin Topa was brought in to protect the two-run lead, his first back-to-back appearance of the season. He hit Pena with a pitch, but otherwise looked effective, striking out the hot-hitting Rodgers on a nice sweeper to end the frame.

The Twins made some decent contact against Houston lefty Bryan King, but didn't produce any baserunners in another scoreless inning.

That led to Jhoan Duran getting the call for the eighth inning. The choice was interesting, because the 8-9-1 spots in the order were coming up, and Griffin Jax hadn't pitched since Tuesday. Duran emphasized his breaking ball and splinker and got the first two outs fairly easily, including a nice strikeout on a curveball to Meyers, dotted at the bottom left corner of the zone. Altuve then swung at the first pitch and grounded back to the pitcher to conclude the easiest Duran inning of 2025 thus far.

Bader led off the eighth with a grounder to short that Pena threw wide to first on, allowing a hustling Bader to reach. Wallner then delivered his fourth hit of the game, and certainly his hardest (112 MPH) up the middle to set up the inning against tough righty Bryan Abreu.

Correa tapped to the right side, and the lead runner Bader was retired. Buxton then flew out weakly to center and Larnach struck out on a ball in the dirt. Would the missed opportunity come back to bite the Twins?

It did, and it didn't take long. Paredes singled sharply, his fourth hit of the game, and Alvarez took out his frustration on a Jax fastball at the top of the zone, tying the game in the blink of an eye.

Walker then doubled off the wall in right-center and questions started to arise:

Why has Jax not been used since Tuesday? Is he hurt? Did he catch the Ober/Julien illness?

He then proceeded to strike out the next three hitters in convincing fashion, so who knows? The velocity and overall stuff still looked great.

"Just matchup-based things," Baldelli said about using Duran before Jax, rather than the other way around. He noted that they've done that many times before, and might do so again. It's possible that, after Duran faced Altuve, Paredes and Alvarez in the ninth inning Saturday, his manager didn't want him to see the latter two on consecutive days. Still, plainly, the strategy didn't work.

Josh Hader made quick work of the Twins in the ninth and Varland took the ball for the top of the 10th. Chas McCormick bunted Rodgers to third, Meyers walked and Altuve rapped a single through the left side to score the "Manfred Man." Altuve then stole second and Jeffers threw through, allowing Meyers to race home from third. On the throw home, the Twins nearly nailed Meyers. The safe call was upheld upon review, but it looked like a 50/50 case. Altuve was then caught off of second and Paredes struck out to end the frame.

The Twins did not fare so well in their half. Miranda grounded out, Bader struck out, and since DeShawn Keirsey Jr. had pinch-run for Wallner, Christian Vazquez was brought in to face Hader. That went well last year but looked pretty pathetic this time around, although the ball that struck him out looked to be low.

Trends:

What’s Next: The Twins head to Kansas City for a three game set. Simeon Woods Richardson (0-0, 4.50 ERA) will face Michael Lorenzen (0-1, 5.06 ERA). Wood Richardson was adequate in a windy outing in Chicago last time out. SWR will be looking to maintain velocity deeper into his start against a light-hitting Royals team. Lorenzen is a fungible backend starter who peaked in 2023 when he was a default All-Star for Detroit, got traded to Philadelphia and immediately threw a no-hitter. The mirage has faded since.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart: