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    As Twins Bullpen Struggles, Louis Varland Is Unlocking Another Level in Toronto

    Don't look now, but Louis Varland has been the league's best reliever through the first month of the season while Minnesota's talent-deficient bullpen predictably flounders.

    Nick Nelson
    Image courtesy of William Liang-Imagn Images

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    On Tuesday night against the Mariners, Joe Ryan threw six innings of one-run ball before surrendering a leadoff double in the top of the seventh. He exited in a very winnable 1-1 tie game. Before long, the score was 7-1 and the Twins were lopsided losers.

    Kody Funderburk quickly allowed the inherited runner to score. In the eighth, Cole Sands gave up a three-run homer to Josh Naylor. (Who pimped the living hell out of it.) In the ninth, newly acquired veteran Luis García — recently waived by the Mets after posting a 7.11 ERA through six appearances — allowed two more runs to cap off a bullpen meltdown that torpedoed Minnesota's chances of locking up a series win. On Wednesday, Eric Orze entered in the ninth to protect a one-run lead and gave up three earned runs while recording one out, sealing another series loss. 

    These were the the 10th and 11th losses in 13 games for the Twins, dropping them five games below .500. For the season, their relievers rank 25th in baseball with a 5.31 ERA and 27th in Win Probability Added at -1.58. It hasn't quite been the worst relief corps in the league, but it's been close, and costly. As expected.

    Making matters worse: Louis Varland is reaching new levels of dominance in Toronto. After setting a record for reliever usage in the playoffs last year, and prompting Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman to call his deadline acquisition "one of the greatest trades we've ever made," Varland is further elevating his game here in 2026. Through 16 innings, he has a 0.56 ERA and 26-to-4 K/BB ratio with zero home runs allowed. 

    His fastball is averaging 98 MPH. His strikeout rate (43%), FIP (0.63) and fWAR (1.0) all lead the American League. In fact, Varland's WAR is more than double that of the entire Twins bullpen (0.4). It's hard to overstate what a difference he could be making as leader of this reconfigured unit.

    varlandstatcast.png

    Alas, Varland is now a Blue Jay, due to the controversial decision to ship out the breakout reliever and his five remaining years of control as part of last year's deadline teardown. Whereas the Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran trades were fairly conventional rebuild moves, the Varland trade was much more of a head-scratcher. Up until he was dealt just minutes before the deadline, he seemed likely to stick around as the long-term leader of a rebuilding relief corps. We're seeing now why that may have been a good idea.

     

    Instead, we're seeing the downside of an audacious, risk-laden decision. Varland is starring in the Blue Jays bullpen while the Twins flounder in part because of their complete lack of late-inning weapons. Alan Roden seemed like an odd fit when Minnesota's front office targeted him and only looks more so now — he was buried in the minors on the LH-hitting OF depth chart before suffering another significant injury last week. Roden is out for the next month at least and possibly much longer. Ouch.

    Which brings us to Kendry Rojas, the other half of the Varland return. He was always the centerpiece of the deal from the Twins' view, and we're seeing why this year. Rojas looked great in camp and has been stellar in his handful of appearances for the Saints. He's already debuted for the Twins, tossing two scoreless innings of relief while filling in for Funderburk last week, and as long he stays healthy it won't be long before he's back.

    With his upper-90s heat and whiff-centric stuff from the left side, Rojas is a high-caliber arm with the realistic potential to flip the narrative (at least somewhat) on the Varland trade. Fair or not, there's going to be a lot of pressure on him to do so. 

    Right now, the contrast is impossible to ignore. Varland is becoming exactly the kind of late-inning force the Twins desperately lack — dominant, reliable, game-altering — just in someone else’s bullpen. Minnesota is left searching for answers in the innings that matter most, hoping Rojas can eventually help bridge that gap.

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    I'm a big Louie Varland fan, even when everyone was down on him. I knew he'd be very good in the pen & didn't understand the Twins keeping him in AAA wasting his bullets trying to force him to be a starter (starting out in the pen doesn't mean you can't graduate from there). Being a Minnesotan added to his fan value, so why alienate the fan base? I didn't get the trade because Varland was so valuable to the Twins for the center of the trade Rodon (like we really needed another LH  cOFer) & unproven Rojas. Just on face value, IMO, we lost the trade. You could debate & say it was a fair trade but for an impact arm at the deadline, you need to kill the trade. We didn't come close. They wanted to hold on to Jax instead, but he wanted out, so they got Bradley (IMO, the best sell-off trade).

    Our greatest need is a RH closer; Varland would have been the difference in lost games. His presence could have staved off many of our steady slumps.

     

    Would the Twins have been better served by trading Glen Perkins in 2011?

    In 2011, Perkins was a local boy experiencing his big league breakout in his first full relief season while his team sat around 6 games under .500 in late July, just like Varland in 2025. Both turned 28 those years, and although Perkins only had two years of club control remaining versus Varland's five, Varland is expected to have four years of arbitration eligibility and Perk ultimately gave up his first two free agent years in a modest extension that offseason.

    Perkins was very good for the Twins the next few years, becoming an all-star and marketable leader, although the Twins somewhat predictably failed to return to contention. We finally snuck in a wild-card chase just as Perkins began losing his effectiveness in the second half of 2015.

    It's often said that it's better to trade a player too early rather than too late, and the Twins appear to have taken that approach with Varland.

    40 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

    I'm a big Louie Varland fan, even when everyone was down on him. I knew he'd be very good in the pen & didn't understand the Twins keeping him in AAA wasting his bullets trying to force him to be a starter (starting out in the pen doesn't mean you can't graduate from there). Being a Minnesotan added to his fan value, so why alienate the fan base? I didn't get the trade because Varland was so valuable to the Twins for the center of the trade Rodon (like we really needed another LH  cOFer) & unproven Rojas. Just on face value, IMO, we lost the trade. You could debate & say it was a fair trade but for an impact arm at the deadline, you need to kill the trade. We didn't come close. They wanted to hold on to Jax instead, but he wanted out, so they got Bradley (IMO, the best sell-off trade).

    Our greatest need is a RH closer; Varland would have been the difference in lost games. His presence could have staved off many of our steady slumps.

     

    Varland's dream was to pitch for his Twins. His heart was to win games for them. It broke my heart to see him crushed after he was surprised that he was traded. Heart isn't on the spreadsheet, so it's not appreciated.

    As other have said, the Varland trade is the one I disliked the most. He was breaking out as dominant here. With him, maybe, just maybe we are able to close out some of these games the bullpen has lost for us. In theory, his success and energy could have potentially elevated the performance of some of the other guys as they feed off each other. 

    Acquiring Roden made zero sense at all and mostly due to injuries, his performance has made this trade seem worse. At this point, we need Rojas to be a very high end starter just to come close to evening this trade out. 

    7 hours ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

    Yeah, Varland is looking lights out in Toronto thus far this season. Sigh. I didn't like that trade at that time (most of those trades the Twins made last year I was fine with, but I hated the Varland trade) and now I like it less, obviously. Sure, Rojas may  turn into a very good MLB pitcher, and perhaps Roden can stay healthy and become productive too, but man, I sure wish we had held onto Varland. 

    with the others they went before him and was like 5 seconds left. they took away their only chance they have some kind of relief pitching this year, especially at the end of the game. if we can actually hold a lead. The guy's a superstar oh we love Louie but we couldn't pass this up. well you sure should have. now we have no full pen. we have no chance for a winning team and the starter should all want out. we can't get a win because nobody can keep the runs from coming across once the starter leaves. this is ridiculous. twins fan nearly 60 years. never seen anything this stupid.

    Let's see what happens with Roden and Rojas. Maybe the Twins wind up 'winning' the trade one day in the future. But, for the present, it was a terrible trade and Lou is the exact kind of player that rebuilding teams try to keep. It didn't make sense when it happened and makes even less sense when you consider how they handled the bullpen this off-season.

    1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

    First off Varland is the 1 trade I have consistently said I wish we wouldn't have done.  He could have been the closer we needed.  

    However lets look at the big picture.   Last year he was a 0 WAR after the trade deadline.  With a good month he has a .9 WAR.  We received 2 decent prospects an outfielder that shows some decent bat skills,  ok defense,  but is now on his 2nd minor injury stint since being with the Twins.  Rojas - has some real talent.   This trade as it stands now still slightly favors the Twins.  However had Varland remained on the Twins last year, I don't think its inconceivable we win 4-6 more games and we likely aren't picking 3 in this draft.  All of this ties together.   

    If Varland was in this bullpen he would really solidify it.  We don't have that 1 shut down guy we need.   

    I don't think you can say it favors the Twins until players that result from the trade actually perform at the big league level. 4-5 years of team control on a cheap, solid, young reliever is pretty valuable and they didn't get that much in return. If they'd held him for a year and he took off like this they'd have gotten a Duran-like return instead. Or they'd have won 3 more games this year and be in better shape for a competitive rebuild. Either way it was a poor use of resources to throw Varland into the firesale.

    3 minutes ago, Taildragger8791 said:

    I don't think you can say it favors the Twins until players that result from the trade actually perform at the big league level. 4-5 years of team control on a cheap, solid, young reliever is pretty valuable and they didn't get that much in return. If they'd held him for a year and he took off like this they'd have gotten a Duran-like return instead. Or they'd have won 3 more games this year and be in better shape for a competitive rebuild. Either way it was a poor use of resources to throw Varland into the firesale.

    I've always said the firesale was to ensure a higher draft pick.   

    On 4/30/2026 at 3:01 PM, USAFChief said:

    Good lord let's hope not. 

    Surely no front office could be that idiotic. 

    Yeah I mean its such a stupid idea that obviously would never work.  Until you remember,  Houston (2011-14),  Cubs (2011-2014)  Orioles (19-22).    

    If you cant understand a #3 pick would be more valuable or more successful at finding a really good prospect than say a pick in the #10--#15 range I really can't have a valid discussion with you.   




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