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    Arms Race: The Search For Young Starters

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    On Tuesday night, the Tigers and Twins kicked off a series at Target Field. On the hill for Detroit was Matt Boyd, a 25-year-old lefty who owns a 2.38 ERA since the beginning of July. Along with Rookie of the Year frontrunner Michael Fulmer, Boyd is a key component in a resurgent rotation that ranks sixth in the AL in ERA after finishing last in 2015.

    Neither was in the organization 13 months ago.

    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, USA Today

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    Fulmer, who the Twins will be lucky enough to avoid this week, has gone 10-4 with a league-leading 2.58 ERA in 20 starts since joining Detroit's rotation at the end of April. The Tigers got him back from the Mets in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes at last year's deadline. Boyd was acquired a day earlier, as part of the package that netted the Blue Jays David Price.

    Detroit made four straight postseason runs before spiraling to fifth place in 2015. They used the opportunity to bring in more young impact pitching talent than the Twins have during five years of futility, and now the Tigers are back in the playoff race again. Astonishing, really.

    Granted, it's not every day you have high-caliber rentals like Price and Cespedes to dangle. But neither Fulmer nor Boyd was an elite prospect. General manager Al Avila and his front office simply targeted the right guys.

    In order to get their woeful staff back on the track, the Twins must absolutely do the same.

    They may have found something in Adalberto Mejia, who came over from San Francisco in the Eduardo Nunez trade last month. But they need to keep adding to their pipeline in order to enhance their chances at striking.

    Watching Minnesota's pitchers get clubbed around on a regular basis, it feels like a return to respectability is far away. But the Tigers are showing that a turnaround can happen rather quickly. The Twins themselves have shown this, jumping from 15th in runs allowed in 2014 to eighth last year before falling back off a cliff.

    Run production is not a problem for this team. For a third straight season, they are at or above the league average in scoring. Preventing runs is the hold-up, and needs to be the primary focus heading into 2017. Pressure is growing with the postseason drought extending and the youthful offensive core gaining traction.

    Some of the improvement will need to come internally, of course. They can't really count on Phil Hughes coming off shoulder surgery but he's a possible factor. It sounds like Trevor May will get another shot at starting. Kyle Gibson ought to rebound from this strangely dismal season. Most importantly, Jose Berrios will hopefully find his way and become a force to be reckoned with.

    But relying solely upon those pieces to form a quality rotation around Ervin Santana is not an option. If the Twins actually have aspirations of returning to contention next year – and I truly believe they do – they need to add at least one more arm with high-end potential. They subtracted one, albeit one with fleeting appeal, when they sent Alex Meyer to the Angels.

    So, where to find such an arm? Free agency is probably not the answer. Even with some spending flexibility and Ricky Nolasco off the books, there just isn't a single name on the upcoming market that pops out.

    I would suggest that the best approach is following the same path the Tigers did to acquire Boyd and Fulmer, and the same one the Twins did with Meyer: trading established MLB players for fast-tracked minor-league pitching with sizable upside.

    There are a few different assets that could be considered for such a move, but when it comes to making a transformative splash, only one solution makes sense. That would be shopping Brian Dozier.

    While sitting in as co-host on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast on Sunday, I discussed the notion of dealing Dozier extensively with Aaron. I recommend clicking here and giving it a listen, if you haven't. But the bottom line is that, as a power-hitting second baseman who is under 30 with a favorable contract, Dozier is extremely valuable. He hit his 30th home run on Wednesday night and is enjoying a career year. This would be the definition of selling high.

    And as it happens, the Twins are equipped to replace him. Second base is Jorge Polanco's best position. While losing Dozier would obviously hurt, it's the kind of major shakeup that is warranted at the conclusion of another disastrous 90-loss season. Given the relatively lopsided nature of the offense and pitching staff at this point, it only makes sense to draw from one to help the other.

    Yet, this idea is contingent on targeting the right guys. Otherwise, it's a catastrophe in the making. If the Twins don't trust Rob Antony to do it, they need to find someone they do. The stakes are high.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Featured Comments

    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 38,018

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    Last year, the discussion about trading Gibson came up.  I was a proponent of it, many others said it would be a bad move because he was turning a corner and about to be a quality starter.

     

    Is it okay to trade Gibson now (or just not tender him a contract), or are we going to bank on the supposed potential of a guy who will be 29 in a few months?

     

    I was in the boat to trade Gibson last year too. I'm not in that boat now though.

     

    His value is low but I still want to see if a new GM comes in here and tells him to change his act. He has always been labeled a sinkerball pitcher, and I guess he is, however his sinker is his worst pitch, and it seems to me he is always throwing it as his "out" pitch with two strikes. I'd bet a more analytical team would have long ago told him to use his change and slider more often in two strike counts as opposed to his extremely hittable sinker.

    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I was in the boat to trade Gibson last year too. I'm not in that boat now though.

     

    His value is low but I still want to see if a new GM comes in here and tells him to change his act. He has always been labeled a sinkerball pitcher, and I guess he is, however his sinker is his worst pitch, and it seems to me he is always throwing it as his "out" pitch with two strikes. I'd bet a more analytical team would have long ago told him to use his change and slider more often in two strike counts as opposed to his extremely hittable sinker.

     

     

    Perhaps you meant to say if a new GM comes in here and tells his new pitching coach to get Gibson to change his act. Has a certain appeal, eh?

    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Sheffield appears to be in the 80-something range at BA and MLB, and those other two guys did not appear in either MLB's or BA's midseason top 100 list (even though BA's doesn't include recent signings, so it's really probably more like a top ~140 or so).  MLB has them at 9 and 10 in the Yankees system right now, although it's an admittedly good system -- the top 7 were in MLB's top 100, although Sheffield is the only pitcher in that group.

     

    I was thinking along the lines of the article, and Vanimal's preference for quality not quantity to help our 2017 rotation.  In those terms, there is no match with the Yankees.

     

    If you are willing to take a mix of non-elite, lower level prospects, perhaps even position players, I suppose the Twins could find a match with the Yankees.  It might look something like the return in the Rich Hill trade.  Although the utility of such a trade would be more questionable, of course.

     

    All of these guys were in Sickle's top 100 at the beginning of this year, and none have done anything to move off of it. If anything, they should be a bit higher this offseason on some of the other national publications.... and for the record, I'm not really a fan of the MLB list in general. I'll defer more to BA, BP, and Sickles. 

     

    That said, I'm not sure what you're expecting if you want quality as all of those guys will have a case for top 100 this offseason. I suspect Sheffield will be midway up the list, but there's a good chance the others will be on the low end of the top 100. I think we agree there that quality over quantity is the right play for BD, but if you're narrowing it down to literally two dozen or so prospects, you're likely not going to find much of a buyer at all. 

     

    That being said, knowing they Yankees, they will go out and sign Ramos or Weiters and then trade Sanchez and Sheffield for BD or some other big upgrade.  I wouldn't necessarily rule out Sanchez as an option this fall as the Yankees have the resources needed to get a top catching FA if they think it makes sense.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    All of these guys were in Sickle's top 100 at the beginning of this year, and none have done anything to move off of it. If anything, they should be a bit higher this offseason on some of the other national publications.... and for the record, I'm not really a fan of the MLB list in general. I'll defer more to BA, BP, and Sickles. 

     

    That said, I'm not sure what you're expecting if you want quality as all of those guys will have a case for top 100 this offseason. I suspect Sheffield will be midway up the list, but there's a good chance the others will be on the low end of the top 100. I think we agree there that quality over quantity is the right play for BD, but if you're narrowing it down to literally two dozen or so prospects, you're likely not going to find much of a buyer at all. 

     

    That being said, knowing they Yankees, they will go out and sign Ramos or Weiters and then trade Sanchez and Sheffield for BD or some other big upgrade.  I wouldn't necessarily rule out Sanchez as an option this fall as the Yankees have the resources needed to get a top catching FA if they think it makes sense.

    Thanks, I didn't check Sickels.  If you like BA, note that in their midseason list from July, Sheffield was #69 and the other two pitchers you mentioned were not ranked.  Despite the fact that BA's midseason list excludes new draftees and amateur signings (hence how Mejia was able to sneak in a #91, even though on their offseason list he would probably rank no better than 130-140).

     

    I wasn't really picking on your trade idea except in the context of this thread and discussion, which is about helping our 2017 pitching staff.  There's no way to do that in trade with the Yankees.

     

    If you want to talk other trade returns, you can certainly talk Yankees and those players you mention could be in the mix.  I would be surprised if the Yankees traded Sanchez, though -- their reputation for aggressively trading prospects has long since passed, and it would be very difficult for them to upgrade their catcher production in 2017 without Sanchez.  (Note that Wieters is worse than McCann.)

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I also tend to doubt that Dozier will be seen as an elite trade target (which he would pretty much have to be, for the Yankees to consider dealing Sanchez right now).  Dozier is having a heck of a year, but he's tracked Neil Walker pretty closely for the last few years (and isn't that far ahead of him this year, 132 wRC+ to 118 with some season left to play).

     

    I feel like Dozier would be viewed as a very good 2B on a hot streak, but still in Walker's class, or even Daniel Murphy's.  Murphy settled for 3/37.5 last winter.  I think Walker can get more than that, thanks to his defense, but not an obscene amount more.  4/60?  That would put him above Zobrist's deal too.  Seems like the Yankees or other big spenders would be far more likely to just write that check to Walker to fill a 2B hole, than to cough up elite talent to get Dozier at 2/15.  (Sorta like how the Yankees got Headley for 4/52 a couple winters ago, and took on Castro for $41 mil last winter.)

    gocgo

    gocgo 1,979

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    OK, so once again, we have the worst pitching in the majors going by BAA...and it isn't close.  One can argue that a better defense could cut that down, but if you've watched any games recently, our opponents are hitting rockets.

     

    If you go all the way back to 2011, the highest the Twins have been in BAA is....wait for it....28th!  There are only 30 teams in MLB and in the last 7 years, we have been dead last in pitching 4 of those years, 29th one time, 28th another, and there was that one glorious season where we ranked 24th (2010).

     

    Now, I'm no rocket scientist, but it would seem to me that we have a problem in the pitching area.  One would think that a GM should probably turn his or her focus to that area of the organization...just a thought.

    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    OK, so once again, we have the worst pitching in the majors going by BAA...and it isn't close.  One can argue that a better defense could cut that down, but if you've watched any games recently, our opponents are hitting rockets.

     

    If you go all the way back to 2011, the highest the Twins have been in BAA is....wait for it....28th!  There are only 30 teams in MLB and in the last 7 years, we have been dead last in pitching 4 of those years, 29th one time, 28th another, and there was that one glorious season where we ranked 24th (2010).

     

    Now, I'm no rocket scientist, but it would seem to me that we have a problem in the pitching area.  One would think that a GM should probably turn his or her focus to that area of the organization...just a thought.

    Defense and overall baseball fundamentals may need looking into as well. Having a team so poor in even basic fundamentals on top of having the 2nd worse defense in baseball makes for some rough baseball to watch. 

    Edited by jimmer
    howieramone2

    howieramone2 1,198

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    No doubt our need this off-season is starting pitching, starting pitching, and starting pitching in that order. Fortunately, we have all kinds of money, vets to trade, and the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is young starting pitching. I would look for our new GM to package Gonsalves and one of out IFA starting pitchers for an established starting pitcher. I would guess our scouts are out looking as we speak.

    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    No doubt our need this off-season is starting pitching, starting pitching, and starting pitching in that order. Fortunately, we have all kinds of money, vets to trade, and the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is young starting pitching. I would look for our new GM to package Gonsalves and one of out IFA starting pitchers for an established starting pitcher. I would guess our scouts are out looking as we speak.

     

    The problem:  Pitching has been needed for a very long time now.  They need a new approach first, because what they are trying isn't working.  

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    No doubt our need this off-season is starting pitching, starting pitching, and starting pitching in that order. Fortunately, we have all kinds of money, vets to trade, and the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is young starting pitching. I would look for our new GM to package Gonsalves and one of out IFA starting pitchers for an established starting pitcher. I would guess our scouts are out looking as we speak.

    I hope the new GM doesn't make a major move like that right away based on the recommendations of the old scouts / front office / coaches that are responsible for producing the current MLB staff.

    Rosterman

    Rosterman 4,525

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I still don't understand totally why they couldn't get anything for Suzuki and Plouffe last year, and also this year. Okay, maybe I can. Cost vs. production. They are overpaid. They are not essentials. There are other comparable players in the whole world of baseball.

     

    Sadly, the Twins somehow have a roster of players that are replaceable at little or no cost, except that the Twins have put them on payroll at a cost that is not appealing to anotehr team (except for Dozier, and anyone that is a rookie).

    sthpstm

    sthpstm 227

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I'm on board with filling the pipeline, but we can't ignore catching depth (lack of). I'd be targeting Barnes and Brock Stewart (because I don't think you can get De Leon, but try by all means). I'd also trade Santana - the Rockies seem like a team that could use a veteran that's not De La Rosa to team with their young guys. Maybe we could pry Marquez and Freeland or one of those plus a Castellani.

    I want to win in 2017, but I just don't see it.  All these guys could be up in 2017 and hopefully making positive contributions by 2018/2019.



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