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    2018 Minnesota Twins Roster Projections (1.0)


    Seth Stohs

    The Twins have now played four spring training games. The regular season is only a month away. Many spots on the roster are pretty well set, but there are still some jobs up for grabs. Today, we’ll take a first run at an Opening Day roster. There are already a couple of disabled list moves, and there could be more of those, or other transactions. But, knowing what we know right now, we’ll attempt to make predictions and discuss the other options.

    Image courtesy of David Richard, USA Today

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    So here is my first attempt at projecting the Twins Opening Day roster for 2018… I encourage you to read my thoughts, develop your own and then post your thoughts and projections in the comments below.

    THE HITTERS (13)

    Catchers (2): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver

    Jason Castro will be the primary catcher. He will likely catch 110-120 games, so the question will be who can start behind the plate in the other 40-50 games.

    The front office, at least to this point, has not provided Mitch Garver with any real competition for the #2 catcher spot. And, frankly, that is the right decision. Garver has hit at each level on the way up the system, including a big 2017 in Rochester. It’s his time to get a full season of service time. Also, his bat should play against left-handed pitchers and more.

    Infielders (7): Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison, Ehire Adrianza, Erick Aybar, Miguel Sano (DL or suspended)

    The starting infield is pretty well set, pending the Miguel Sano situation. Joe Mauer will be the main first baseman. Logan Morrison will play some first but primarily DH. Brian Dozier will start at second base. Jorge Polanco will be the shortstop. Miguel Sano will get a lot of time at third base when he’s able to play, but he’ll also likely spend plenty of time as the DH. Until then, Eduardo Escobar will get a lot of the playing time at third base.

    When Sano is on the roster, Escobar again the primary utility infielder. In that scenario, Ehire Adrianza will most likely fall back to the second utility infielder. In that scenario, The addition of Erick Aybar is interesting. If Sano is not on the active roster, Aybar likely becomes the second utility infielder along with Adrianza. When Sano then is active, it will be interesting to see how the Adriana/Aybar situation plays itself out.

    Still in the game: Kennys Vargas remains on the 40-man roster, but unless there is an injury, it’s hard to imagine a spot on the 25-man roster. Since he’s out of options, I would assume that the Twins will be looking to deal Vargas for something.

    Outfielders (4): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman

    Nothing falls but raindrops. The starting outfield remains intact from last year. Rosario had a bit of a breakout season in 2017. Byron Buxton was tremendous in the secomd half and won not only the Gold Glove but the Platinum Glove as well in 2017. Kepler had a similar 2017 as he had in 2016, and we’re all hoping that he’ll take a step forward in 2018. The defense is strong.

    With the additions of Morrison and Aybar, the fourth outfield spot is now up for grabs. Robbie Grossman and Zack Granite are the two options, so there may be a bit of a competition. Right now, I’m projecting Grossman because he’s out of options and Granite has two options remaining.

    POSSIBLE LINEUPS

    Since it’s more fun to consider the Twins lineup with Miguel Sano in it, that’s what I’ve done below.

    Primary lineup versus RHP: Joe Mauer 1B, Brian Dozier 2B, Jorge Polanco SS, Miguel Sano 3B, Logan Morrison DH, Eddie Rosario LF, Byron Buxton CF, Max Kepler RF, Jason Castro C.

    Versus LHP: Joe Mauer 1B, Brian Dozier 2B, Jorge Polanco SS, Miguel Sano 3B, Logan Morrison DH, Byron Buxton CF, Eddie Rosario LF, Mitch Garver C, Max Kepler/Robbie Grossman RF.

    THE PITCHERS (12)

    Starting Pitchers (5): Ervin Santana (DL), Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, Phil Hughes

    Will the Twins add another starter? Should they? Ervin Santana will miss the first month of the season with his finger injury. Obviously as soon as he is ready, he jumps right back into the rotation.

    Jose Berrios has a chance to take a big step in 2018. Acquiring Jake Odorizzi recently for Jermaine Palacios was a very nice trade. Kyle Gibson? We can all hope that he truly figured something out over his final 12 starts last year. If he can be that for the full 2018 season, that’s going to be huge for the Twins.

    I think there are two spots open in the Twins rotation until Santana comes back. I think Adalberto Mejia comes in with the first opportunity to win the job. I think that Stephen Gonsalves and Aaron Slegers also have at least some sort of chance to win a spot. But for right now, I’m going to put Phil Hughes as the fifth starter for right now. I mean, it would be great if the second thoracic outlet surgery is the charm. Reports from his first spring start indicated that he was hitting 91 mph with his fastball. That’s a good start.

    It will also be very interesting to see how the Anibal Sanchez situation plays out. He has the non-guaranteed contract, so I think he’s going to have to pitch real well to make the ball club. Trevor May and Michael Pineda are on the 60-day disabled list already.

    Bullpen (7): Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly, Zach Duke, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey.

    The Twins front office made over the bullpen, to some degree. Veteran Fernando Rodney comes on as the team’s closer after a 39 save 2017 in Arizona. In 55.1 innings, he struck out 55. Addison Reed got a two-year deal. He’s been a strong reliever throughout his career and has 425 strikeouts in 401 innings. Hildenberger came up in June last year. By the end of the season, he was Molitor’s go-to guy in the bullpen in any situation. Ryan Pressly continues to be interesting. While he needed to spend time in AAA in 2017, he continues to have the best stuff in the organization. He throws hard and has that breaking ball.

    Taylor Rogers was as reliable as any left-handed reliever in baseball the first three months of the season last year. He was probably over-used a bit and slowed in the second half. The addition of veteran Zach Duke should really help the Twins bullpen. He returned very quickly from Tommy John surgery last year and pitched well.

    Tyler Duffey gets my choice for a job in long relief. Of the other six spots, there really isn’t anyone who should work more than two innings. And if the Twins decide to go with an eight-man bullpen to start the season, Phil Hughes might be the right choice because he too can eat innings and make those fifth-starter starts.

    Others in Contention: Alan Busenitz also became very reliable down the stretch for the Twins last year. John Curtiss got called up right before September. Gabriel Moya came up from AA after helping the Lookouts to the Southern League championship. Dietrich Enns could be another long-relief candidate if he pitches well in spring. Tyler Kinley is the team’s Rule 5 pick, which in many years would give him the advantage. It may not for this year’s Twins team. The Twins want Fernando Romero to get stretched out as a starter, but his fastball/slider combination may be really, really intriguing to the Twins staff, especially in the second half.

    In one month, the Twins will have broken camp and be preparing for Opening Day. So there is a lot of time left and a lot can happen. Who knows? The Twins could potentially add another player, or two, or three.

    What are your thoughts? What does your roster look like?

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    Everyone has an insurance policy on their car and home, a policy from company X (no, this isn't a State Farm advertisement).  It is possible company X has re-insured their losses to some extent with company Y.  I look at Aybar as being the Twins re-insurance policy.

     

    Should Sano begin the year suspended or on the DL because his leg still isn't 100%, Escobar will be starting at third.  Their insurance, should that happen, is to have Adrianza as their utility player and Gordon available at AAA.  Should something also happen to Adrianza, or Gordon prove this spring that he isn't ready for the show, they signed Aybar to a minor league deal.  Kind of like re-insurance, something you have but never expect to use! 

     

    I just think we should have been able to find a better insurance policy than a Erick Aybar, who hasn't hit in three years and whose defense is on the decline. And I'm completely baffled by the people who think he should be considered an option over Adrianza; there's almost no chance Aybar becomes the player he was 4 years ago again.  It's much more likely he's unable to replicate even last season's modest success being on the downward plane of his fine career. Adrianza is almost 6 years younger and was a better player last year. He's much more likely to do at least as well this season than the guy who just turned 34. 

     

    I'd say 3B is an area where we don't have much system depth right now.

     

    Sorry, do not see Aybar making this club.  He probably would have to do more than he is capable of to make it. I see Adrianza a better shot than Aybar, defends as well and is cheaper.  I also see Grossman gone as do not see a role for him here with the Morrison signing.  Would like to see Granite or Wade be the 4th outfielder, they both can field and run.  I guess Grossman could make it as a platoon partner for either Rosario or Kepler, but think it is early in their careers to call them platoon players.

    Aybar makes it if Sano can't go...either due to injury or suspension.  Gotta be the only reason he was brought in.

    It is way too early to predict who will make the team as there still could be trades made. I like Aybar for his versatility but he is on the downside of his career. I do not like Duke though he is a veteran. I hope he doesn't take away a good kid's spot that we could lose. The issue with the Twins is not who will make the roster but are guys like Escobar and Rosario for real. They made good strides last year but can they come close to those numbers again? Let's hope so. Rodney scares me and I can see Reed becoming the real closer before it is all done. I like Vargas but he doesn't produce- especially from the right side. And Pressley may need a better pitching coach. With his stuff, there is no excuse for him not blossoming. 

     

    I can't find a way to sort by spin rate leaders (the statcast and savant websites are pretty terrible), but on a statcast podcast last year petriello mentioned Busenitz having the second highest spinning fastball of any reliever who threw 100 fastballs. The outliers at the top and bottom of the spin rate list (according to petriello) generally have fantastic outcomes. The names he was surrounded by are basically the who's who of best relief pitchers in the game and petriello adamantly suggested he will be the future closer for the Twins. I hope he makes this squad as he is one of the five best RH relief pitchers the organization has right now.

    Sorting by spin rate on the baseball savant website is actually pretty simple. Once on the website go to Statcast Search. On that page in the Pitch Type category filter by the fastballs; under Position select RP; under Min # of Results select 100; under Sort By select Avg. Spin Rate. This should give you the list that you are looking for.

    Twins have other players who can play LF against lefties and everyone needs a day off.  Grossman will not start against a righty (maybe if Buxton sits).  That is the reason I am against Grossman(he has value), but against lefties Morrison could play LF or RF, Sano at first, Escobar at 3rd and either Mauer or another bench piece at DH.  That would be a better use for me than carrying Grossman for the few times he would play.  Also you would have Granite (or Wade) as your 4th outfielder and they can play all the outfield positions.

    Wade is not that far away and he could be up this year.

     

    but against lefties Morrison could play LF or RF...

    I've read this a few times here.  And, no.  He can't.

     

    There is no evidence to suggest the Twins would even consider it in an abolute emergency.  He has exactly zero appearances in the OF over the last two seasons, and a total of 2 starts the year before that.  2012 was the last time a MLB team saw fit to give him even as many OF starts as Grossman had last year.  Escobar would play OF (and has) before they would move Morrison out there.

    Twins have other players who can play LF against lefties and everyone needs a day off. Grossman will not start against a righty (maybe if Buxton sits). That is the reason I am against Grossman(he has value), but against lefties Morrison could play LF or RF, Sano at first, Escobar at 3rd and either Mauer or another bench piece at DH. That would be a better use for me than carrying Grossman for the few times he would play. Also you would have Granite (or Wade) as your 4th outfielder and they can play all the outfield positions.

    Wade is not that far away and he could be up this year.

    Morrison has played a combined 13 games in the outfield the last 5 seasons.

    I'm guessing Morrison isn't an option out there as anything more than an emergency basis.

    When I look at what Grossman brings to the club, he certainly takes quality at bats and offers a bit of pop.  He's probably not ideal for a pinch runner, can only play the corner OF spots and is a bit of a liability when he is in one of those spots.

     

    When I look at what Granite brings to the club, he also takes quality at bats but doesn' offer much pop.  He is a good option for a pinch runner and can play all 3 OF positions without much of a drop off if any.  He is also a cheaper option than Grossman.

     

    If the Twins are intent on keeping both, the job is Grossman's, but I don't know why we would be intent on keeping both given that Wade is close.  Grossman has over achieved in my mind and hats off to him, but I just don't see a spot for him if your intent is to break with the strongest and most flexible team.

     

    If they are going to cut Grossman lose, the right thing is to cut him early and give him a chance to catch on with another team.

     

    Twins have other players who can play LF against lefties and everyone needs a day off.  Grossman will not start against a righty (maybe if Buxton sits).  That is the reason I am against Grossman(he has value), but against lefties Morrison could play LF or RF, Sano at first, Escobar at 3rd and either Mauer or another bench piece at DH.  That would be a better use for me than carrying Grossman for the few times he would play.  Also you would have Granite (or Wade) as your 4th outfielder and they can play all the outfield positions.

    Wade is not that far away and he could be up this year.

     

    Other people addressed the defense but even offensively that makes no sense. Grossman has 50 points on Morrison in career OBP vs. LHP. He would be a way better bat.

     

    Wade hits lefty. He's pretty redundant unless he really really hits. Granite/Wade should likely be part of a midseason trade if they play well -- they're maybe good players but they don't fit a team that has Buxton in CF and a pair of lefties in the corners.

     

    Maybe they can trade Vargas to Miami and keep Kinley?  I'm not really sure what they see in Kinley, but they clearly like something and, barring an injury, there's no room for him in the bullpen.  They can't expect to get much back for Vargas when teams are just waiting for them to DFA him, but this way they'd at least get to keep working with Kinley. 

    I had the same thought. They can clear off 2 spots on the 40 man with one move.

     

    Pressly is the other guy who I think might be out in the final end.  Busenitz is the player I expect to make it.  Pressly has never put it all together and with this club, potential is going to mean less than results. (At least I hope so). Would almost like them to deal him early, because late teams become more aware of who might be picked up at no cost (except for salary) and will not offer anything.  

    Maybe he can be fixed, just do not think Twins can afford and try to figure that out.

    When you have the stuff that Pressly has, you have to go that extra yard. Twinkietown did quite an article on Pressly in 2016.

    I had the same thought. They can clear off 2 spots on the 40 man with one move.

    Not quite that simple. Kinley would have to clear waivers too, before we could make this deal. If the Twins see enough from him this spring to want to keep him in the org, it seems possible another team would put in a claim. Hence these kinds of Rule 5 trades are quite rare.

    Edited by spycake



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