Article: Strike While It's Hot: Target The Mariners?

[TheLeviathan]

So the 3-4 wins you've added, is your actual net gain.

 

The problem is that it muddles the conversation and gets us into Oliver projections. All prospects have the same dollar attachment to them. So in the end it really comes back to your projection of them as a major league player. Teams that deal established talent for prospects do so because of financial restraints, so the relevant issues are - what are the finances for the team, what is the team's objective, how do the prospects project. Surplus value just deflects into irrelevant tangents.

 

They're unlikely to be willing to trade something that is such a rare commodity.

 

This is not a "rare commodity". If it was - Willingham would have long been dealt. 34 year olds who have a history of health issues, can't field, and aren't having career years do not possess a lot of value.

 

You seem to think the only place to find these type of players is on rebuilders, but teams calling up prospects also move these players. Take Aoki last week. Jason Kubel is available and would fit their park better. Same with David Murphy. They could sign Choo. Corey Hart. Logan Morrison is available. Lucas Duda. I could go on and on.

 

Plodding, position-less, aging players are not exactly a rare or premium quantity people are knocking down doors to get.

[JP3700]

The problem is that it muddles the conversation and gets us into Oliver projections. All prospects have the same dollar attachment to them. So in the end it really comes back to your projection of them as a major league player. Teams that deal established talent for prospects do so because of financial restraints, so the relevant issues are - what are the finances for the team, what is the team's objective, how do the prospects project. Surplus value just deflects into irrelevant tangents.

 

 

Of course it comes back to how you project them as a major league player. If the Mariners considered any of these guys as untouchable than the point is moot. That's why I stated in the article that the prospects being involved are interchangeable. Although I have a great fondness for Taylor.

 

Every team has financial restraints, especially a team like the Mariners. I've touched on every single thing you mentioned. They have $40-50 million to spend, and have at least 5 or 6 positions to upgrade. Their objective is obviously to win now. I didn't supply scouting reports, other than a brief one on Taylor. I didn't want to make it too long, and I felt if someone was that interested, they could look up the other players discussed. They've all made top 10 Mariners prospect lists in various years, with Maurer and Taylor ranking as high as #5 on a couple.

 

This is not a "rare commodity". If it was - Willingham would have long been dealt. 34 year olds who have a history of health issues, can't field, and aren't having career years do not possess a lot of value.

 

Tell that to Michael Morse. Going into last year, he had only one productive season in the majors. Willingham had 7 straight until last year. Morse is actually an even worse defender than Willingham and even more injury prone. He was also coming off a down year. One year of Morse netted the Nats a package of prospects as good, if not superior to the one being suggested. Just by himself.

 

You seem to think the only place to find these type of players is on rebuilders, but teams calling up prospects also move these players. Take Aoki last week. Jason Kubel is available and would fit their park better. Same with David Murphy. They could sign Choo. Corey Hart. Logan Morrison is available. Lucas Duda. I could go on and on.

It's about lineup construction. Take a look at the Mariners roster. They have a left handed bat at second, short, third, center and right field. Their first baseman Smoak is a switch hitter who can't hit lefties (.548 OPS batting right handed in 2013) . There's a reason why I mentioned right handed. Corey Hart is the only player that fits, and he is coming off two major knee surgeries.

[TheLeviathan]

Tell that to Michael Morse.

 

Except that the year that netted the Nats a nice package for Morse was a career year followed by a good year with injuries. Willingham had a career year and then a garbage year. If this was last offseason, I'd agree with you because that was a career year for Willingham too. He should've been dealt then, but he wasn't so we have to deal with the value as it is. Not as we want it to be.

 

It's about lineup construction.

 

Their park plays poorly to right-handed power hitters. They tried with Morse and it failed, I'd assume they learned something from that. Willingham is not a rare commodity, not at his age and with his health issues. You're way overplaying his value.

[JP3700]

Except that the year that netted the Nats a nice package for Morse was a career year followed by a good year with injuries. Willingham had a career year and then a garbage year. If this was last offseason, I'd agree with you because that was a career year for Willingham too. He should've been dealt then, but he wasn't so we have to deal with the value as it is. Not as we want it to be.

 

That "good year with injuries", Morse was valued as a replacement level player(0.0 WAR). The same as Willingham this past year.

 

Their park plays poorly to right-handed power hitters. They tried with Morse and it failed, I'd assume they learned something from that. Willingham is not a rare commodity, not at his age and with his health issues. You're way overplaying his value.

 

If you've kept up with the reports on the Mariners, their two targets are Nelson Cruz and Corey Hart. So maybe they haven't learned their lesson.

 

I used Morse as a comparison to establish their need of a certain type of player and their willingness to overpay. If you read the article I stated..

 

Hammer is coming off a down, injury-riddled season. Although I hate the thought of selling low

 

Perkins is obviously the biggest piece in this trade

 

So in no way have I overplayed his value. There are just other factors involved here, including Perkins being involved in the deal.

[TheLeviathan]

That "good year with injuries", Morse was valued as a replacement level player(0.0 WAR). The same as Willingham this past year.

 

id argue that's an indictment of WAR and its use in this context. But if you believe he's even to a replacement player than more reason not to give up prospects for him.

 

Your overall trade was fine, I wouldn't do it but its fine.