Don't trade prospects

[Major League Ready]

I'm saying they have arms on the brink to help cushion the loss of Santana. Now, on top of that, as late as early August, they had 5 players who had a combined OPS of 500 points lower than it was just the year before. With the turnaround some of those guys had as the end (living up to what they were capable of all year), I expect that will continue and, with the addition of Ventura for a full season and Zimmer probably mid-season, I think they will be fine.

 

OK, I have to agree your long-term perspective here but I don’t think their emergence of these players is relevant to the subject at hand which I thought was the wisdom of KC trading Meyers, Montgomery, and Odorizzi for Shields/Davis. The value proposition in that transaction was 2 years of Shields/Davis for six years of Meyers, Montgomery, and Ordozzi. Their remaining value in that deal is one more year of Shields/Davis. That’s what they traded for in this transaction.

 

If you are correct that Zimmer and Ventura are legitimate replacements for Santana and Shields, KC pushed the orchestration of this rebuild IMO and it will likely prove to be a big mistake. Instead of a two year run with shields/Davis, they could have had the following scenario.

 

#29 Zimmer, #31 Montgomery, #34Ventura, and #45 Odorizzi for 6 years instead of Shields/Santana/Davis for 2. These players would not only be assets for an additional 4 years, they would net a payroll flexibility/availability in the neighborhood of $25M

 

Retaining Meyers would have allowed them to trade Alex Gordon. KC could get some pretty nice prospects for Gordon, gain another 8M+ in payroll flexibility while inserting a roughly equivalent player. Gordon is a little better right now in his prime as compared to Meyers as a rookie. Meyers is likely the better player in the long run.

 

With the $33M, KC can cover all of the arbitration increases and now have several years of their core in their prime. They also would have gained the prospects from trading Gordon. Instead, they panicked for a short-term gain.

 

They also have Manaea who could find it again and be a top 25 prospect.

#40 Starling and #46 Mondesi. They could also potentially trade Escobar now that his cost will be going up and gained more prospects and more salary flexibility. Starling is a Rosario level prospect. You have to believe he makes them better.

 

Had this scenario played out, they could afford to extend Hosmer, cover their other arbitration cases ’s and probably still have some money left over for free agent additions.

 

The net is that they lost Meyer, Montgomery, Odorizzi, and some additional prospects (had they traded Gordon) from what should be a pretty good team for a few years. Would they have made them a contender? Only time will tell but they very likely would have been better for several more years had they not rushed the process.

[ThePuck]

OK, I have to agree your long-term perspective here but I don’t think their emergence of these players is relevant to the subject at hand which I thought was the wisdom of KC trading Meyers, Montgomery, and Odorizzi for Shields/Davis. The value proposition in that transaction was 2 years of Shields/Davis for six years of Meyers, Montgomery, and Ordozzi. Their remaining value in that deal is one more year of Shields/Davis. That’s what they traded for in this transaction.

 

If you are correct that Zimmer and Ventura are legitimate replacements for Santana and Shields, KC pushed the orchestration of this rebuild IMO and it will likely prove to be a big mistake. Instead of a two year run with shields/Davis, they could have had the following scenario.

 

#29 Zimmer, #31 Montgomery, #34Ventura, and #45 Odorizzi for 6 years instead of Shields/Santana/Davis for 2. These players would not only be assets for an additional 4 years, they would net a payroll flexibility/availability in the neighborhood of $25M

 

Retaining Meyers would have allowed them to trade Alex Gordon. KC could get some pretty nice prospects for Gordon, gain another 8M+ in payroll flexibility while inserting a roughly equivalent player. Gordon is a little better right now in his prime as compared to Meyers as a rookie. Meyers is likely the better player in the long run.

 

With the $33M, KC can cover all of the arbitration increases and now have several years of their core in their prime. They also would have gained the prospects from trading Gordon. Instead, they panicked for a short-term gain.

 

They also have Manaea who could find it again and be a top 25 prospect.

#40 Starling and #46 Mondesi. They could also potentially trade Escobar now that his cost will be going up and gained more prospects and more salary flexibility. Starling is a Rosario level prospect. You have to believe he makes them better.

 

Had this scenario played out, they could afford to extend Hosmer, cover their other arbitration cases ’s and probably still have some money left over for free agent additions.

 

The net is that they lost Meyer, Montgomery, Odorizzi, and some additional prospects (had they traded Gordon) from what should be a pretty good team for a few years. Would they have made them a contender? Only time will tell but they very likely would have been better for several more years had they not rushed the process.

 

If you read the post I responded to, your I believe, and what I said, the only thing I was talking about was the loss of Edwin Jackson and how they'll replace him. The Shields/Myers trade I'm not going to get into again...I've debated that enough. Some think it was a good idea, some think it wasn't. Some are sure it didn't work out, some think it worked out fine. No minds getting changed there, and since it's not about our team, it's not worth the hassle.

[FSP]

Retaining Meyers would have allowed them to trade Alex Gordon.

 

I don't understand why you think they would have traded Alex Gordon. He is good, he is cheap, and he plays LF while Wil Myers play RF. They likely would have just had Myers replace Jeff Francour since he is the worst player in baseball and improved in that way.

[Oxtung]

Really, I think you're not that far off the mark. I'd say Sano, May, Rosario, and Danny Santana would be a good comp. Hicks is still regarded too highly to be on that list, I think. I don't like the Sano/Escobar comp that much but the Twins don't have anyone between Sano and Meyer so it'll have to do.

 

As for Greinke, we'll just have to disagree. His 2009 was so much better than anything Price has posted (and is the closest thing to a 1999 Pedro we've seen since Martinez was in his prime) that it (unfairly or not) skewed the perception of each pitcher.

 

And, while Johan may have been traded a half decade ago, he's a far better pitcher than either Greinke or Price. The comp has merit, I think. The evaluation tools may have changed a bit since then but Johan was just so much better than Greinke and Price that it more than compensates for the difference. Johan had four seasons with an ERA+ over 150.

 

Greinke, Shields, and Price have one combined.

 

God, it's frustrating to go back and look at Johan's numbers as a Twin.

 

Oh I agree Santana was a better pitcher and would have been a good comp but for a couple things. First he pitched at a time when a good offense, and therefore a good slugger like Bonds, was more important to a team than an ace. That isn't true today because people aren't getting on base at as high a clip a sluggers HRs aren't as valuable as they were even 5 years ago. If you want to be a World Series contender the first thing you need to start with is a rotation and that is lead by an ace. Second, as you mentioned earlier, the twins didn't do a particularly good job with that trade. That is why I think it isn't relevant. He was certainly good enough.

 

If , despite that, the consensus is that people think the Johan comp is valid then we should determine comparable a from the Twins farm system currently.

 

I'm at work and can't look right now but if anyone wants to take a shot at the Johan trade or the shields trade ill look when I get home tonight.

[Major League Ready]

I don't understand why you think they would have traded Alex Gordon. He is good, he is cheap, and he plays LF while Wil Myers play RF. They likely would have just had Myers replace Jeff Francour since he is the worst player in baseball and improved in that way.

 

You are absolutely right. They might not have traded Gordon. I offered that only because some have suggested (probably correctly) they had to make move when they did because they would not have been able to affford to keep their core together when they reached the arbitration years. I love Gordon but that's how I would have played that situation given KCs budget. They could afford to retain their core and had a very nice group of young pitchers. It is also in keeping with the sell high theme that has been discussed here of late. They would have had an equivalent player + a couple nice prospects unless I misjudge Gordon's value + addition financial capacity to retain Hosmer and others.

 

No, this is not about our team but the two situations in terms of orchestrating the timing of a rebuild, maximizing assets, and the need for patience are very similar in IMO.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I did a little bit of digging.

 

Cleveland could offer a comparable package fronted by either or both of Lindor and Kipnis plus Trevor Bauer and sweetners. The Red Sox certainly have the talent in their minor league system to match our offer. Some combination of Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Webster, Owens, Barnes plus sweeteners. I don't think they will though because they look pretty set at pitcher for the foreseeable future. The Mariners probably could put a package together between Zunino, Walker, Paxton, Hultzen, Montero and Franklin. Again though I don't think they would because they have quite a few pitching prospects lined up to go with Hernandez and Iwakuma. The Rangers are intriguing though. They have Darvish and Holland and ... ? They could build a package fronted by Profar and some combination of Sardinas, Odor, Alfaro and Gallo plus sweetners. The Cubs absolutely could, they are stocked with young talent, and they are in need of pitching. My question is if the timing is right for them to make this move (just like the Twins). The Reds might be able to depending on how you view Billy Hamilton but I don't think they would. They have quite a bit of pitching talent at the major league level right now. The Pirates could muster up the prospects but it seems unlikely they'd be able to afford Price any more than the Rays can. The Cardinals could probably make a similar offer with Taveras and Wong but they too have quite a few nice young pitching prospects so they won't be interested. The Dodgers are interesting. They don't necessarily need Price but they are definitely in win now mode, so if they wanted an absolutely dominant rotation he would be interesting. They don't have any top end talent but they do have quite a bit of middle end talent they could perhaps package four 50-100 type prospects together.

 

So the Rangers, Dodgers, Cleveland and Cubs in that order of likelihood IMO. Toss the Twins in where you feel appropriate.

 

Several of these teams could offer that type of package, but as Brock said, that type of package would make them certifiably insane. I want the Twins to add talent as much as everyone else here, but with wave coming up, and all the holes at the ML level, trading prospects right now (unless they are marginal) is not how you do it.

 

That's how you end up with a 85 loss team and a barren farm system.

[Oxtung]

I agree for the most part. The twins shouldn't be lookin to make a trade like this currently. I was trying to flesh out the idea to see what it would really look like, who the competitors would be and then what the cost might be. In the end this doesn't currently make sense for the twins this season.

 

There is a caveat I have and haven't looked into yet. When will the next opportunity be to trade for a sure thing ace? They certainly don't appear very often it seems. We are seeing with this years class of FA pitchers that you can't just assume one will be there when you're "ready" whatever that word means to you.

 

Several of these teams could offer that type of package, but as Brock said, that type of package would make them certifiably insane. I want the Twins to add talent as much as everyone else here, but with wave coming up, and all the holes at the ML level, trading prospects right now (unless they are marginal) is not how you do it.

 

That's how you end up with a 85 loss team and a barren farm system.