Article: Mauer and the Monster

[ThePuck]

He'd have a lot more RBI so yeah, I'd take those 20 GIDP.

 

Really, GIDP don't matter much. They're a by-product of seeing a lot of runners on base.

 

Yup...a by-prodcut of seeing a lot of runners on base and making contact so much.

[Guest USAFChief]

Also, Mauer and Puckett have a career SLG difference of .011. Singles hitter, indeed.

That's playing kind of fast and loose with numbers, IMO. While true, it really doesn't tell the whole story.

 

Pucketts SLG is weighed down by his first 2 yrs in the majors, where he SLG'd .336 and .385 in over 1300 PAs. After those two yrs, he SLG'd over .500 five times, .490 once, and never below .446. 9 seasons of 30 or more doubles, including 3 over 40 and another 2 of 39. Six seasons of 20 or more HRs. Puckett started out as a singles hitter, but by his third season he was a legitimate middle of the order hitter with good power.

 

Mauer has only 2 full seasons of .500, plus his partial rookie season, and tops out at .469 in all his other seasons. Six seasons of 30 or more doubles, only one of which is over 40' and the next best topping out at 36 (he may improve on that this year.). One season over 20 HRs.

 

Mauer doesn't have the power Puckett did (nor did Kirby have Joe's OBP), at least not yet, despite what career SLG numbers might imply.

[Teflon]

He'd have a lot more RBI so yeah, I'd take those 20 GIDP.

 

Really, GIDP don't matter much. They're a by-product of seeing a lot of runners on base.

 

I would too if they directly correlated to additional scoring opportunities. Joe Mauer of 2013 has less of a correlation, however.

 

First, more of Joe's outs are ending with the ball in the catcher's glove than an infielder's. (His 18% strikeout ratio is an all-time high; His 46.0% groundball rate is his lowest since he was a rookie playing 35 games in 2004)

 

Second, more of his outs are ending with the ball in an outfielder's glove than an infielder's glove. (His GB/FB ratio is 1.82 this year compared to 2.35 in 2012 and 2.57 in 2011.)

 

You'll notice I didn't say any of those were bad.

 

With fewer runners on base ahead of him and a lack of a Morneau-of-old or Willingham-of-last-year to hit behind him, Joe is getting the lowest percentage of fastballs he's ever seen. (59.6%) Given some protection back in the lineup and a modicum of threats on base, Joe will get more fastballs and his K-rate likely reverts to his norm. Not sure about the GB/FB rate - but guessing that from the increased off-speed pitches Joe's getting he might be trying to make hay with more high fastballs than in the past.

 

If you look at other aspects of Mauer's season at the plate, he's hitting a higher percentage of line drives than ever before and his ratio of runs created per game is higher than any season since 2009. (I didn't say anything about GIDPs in regards to runs created; infer what you will.) He isn't a worse player at the plate but he is a different player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's playing kind of fast and loose with numbers, IMO. While true, it really doesn't tell the whole story.

 

Pucketts SLG is weighed down by his first 2 yrs in the majors, where he SLG'd .336 and .385 in over 1300 PAs. After those two yrs, he SLG'd over .500 five times, .490 once, and never below .446. 9 seasons of 30 or more doubles, including 3 over 40 and another 2 of 39. Six seasons of 20 or more HRs. Puckett started out as a singles hitter, but by his third season he was a legitimate middle of the order hitter with good power.

 

Mauer has only 2 full seasons of .500, plus his partial rookie season, and tops out at .469 in all his other seasons. Six seasons of 30 or more doubles, only one of which is over 40' and the next best topping out at 36 (he may improve on that this year.). One season over 20 HRs.

 

Mauer doesn't have the power Puckett did (nor did Kirby have Joe's OBP), at least not yet, despite what career SLG numbers might imply.

 

Puckett also played his early years in a giant pinball machine while Joe gets to play in Target Field. The AstroTurf that Puckett got to enjoy watching singles turn to doubles and doubles turn to triples was gone by the time Joe came around.

 

There's a good chance Joe Mauer hits .360 every season if he was able to play 81 games in the turf-field Metrodome.