26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[drjim]

People expect the Twins to improve the product on the field by all means available instead of decreasing payroll two years in a row (and likely continuing the next two years)while we continue to stink. You take it to extreme to make your point when no one is arguing the extreme. No one that I've seen in here expect us to have payroll in the mid 100s.

 

I think this type of thinking fails to take into account the lack of free agent options and the reality of a rebuild.

 

We all want the Twins to be better but these two realities provide limits to what could actually be done in an offseason.

 

I'm amazed at how much confidence people put in free agents. The Twins are getting out of this mess through internal improvement supplemented by free agents. Free agents themselves are not going to move the needle.

[ThePuck]

Have the Braves, Cards or Mariners responded to new stadium revenues by cutting payroll 30% (with further cuts likely on the way), to the point where they are within a stone's throw of 2007 levels? All while losing 90+ games 3 yrs in a row?

 

If we take normal national inflation into account, we are below 2007 payroll. Without knowing for sure, I believe players' salaries have increased more than the national inflation rate.

[Mike Sixel]

I think this type of thinking fails to take into account the lack of free agent options and the reality of a rebuild.

 

We all want the Twins to be better but these two realities provide limits to what could actually be done in an offseason.

 

I'm amazed at how much confidence people put in free agents. The Twins are getting out of this mess through internal improvement supplemented by free agents. Free agents themselves are not going to move the needle.

 

Name one person here arguing FA is the only answer. Not one person has said that. No one here would.

[ThePuck]

I think this type of thinking fails to take into account the lack of free agent options and the reality of a rebuild.

 

We all want the Twins to be better but these two realities provide limits to what could actually be done in an offseason.

 

I'm amazed at how much confidence people put in free agents. The Twins are getting out of this mess through internal improvement supplemented by free agents. Free agents themselves are not going to move the needle.

 

Do you mean the lack of free agents within some preconceived price range we set for ourselves?

[drjim]

I thought it was obvious I was comparing McPhail in dome constraints to Ryan in dome constraints, I really need to be more explicit in my posts......of course constraints have changed, not that you could tell from the last two years, as payroll has plummeted.

 

Fine. The financial realities of 1991 were also significantly different than the 2000s. The model really shifted after 1994.

[drjim]

Do you mean the lack of free agents within some preconceived price range we set for ourselves?

 

No. Lack of free agents in total.

[drjim]

Name one person here arguing FA is the only answer. Not one person has said that. No one here would.

 

Everyone constantly complains about a lack of free agents signed. Why would you do that unless you thought it was the answer?

[Mike Sixel]

Fine. The financial realities of 1991 were also significantly different than the 2000s. The model really shifted after 1994.

 

How many years of Ryan NOT signing FAs, or trading prospects for legit players, do you need before you will say it is part of how he acts? Not what he says, because talk is cheap, but how he acts?

[Mike Sixel]

Everyone constantly complains about a lack of free agents signed. Why would you do that unless you thought it was the answer?

 

PART of the answer, not the whole answer. Your post stated it was the only way we wanted talent added. What the negative nancies want is for Ryan to use all of the channels for adding talent, not just the ones that cut costs. We want a big time FA signed, or maybe two, when there are literally 10x of millions of dollars sitting around, gathering dust.

[ThePuck]

No. Lack of free agents in total.

 

So the argument every year will be lack of free agents available...that's a convenient argument.

[ThePuck]

PART of the answer, not the whole answer. Your post stated it was the only way we wanted talent added. What the negative nancies want is for Ryan to use all of the channels for adding talent, not just the ones that cut costs. We want a big time FA signed, or maybe two, when there are literally 10x of millions of dollars sitting around, gathering dust.

 

exactly...part of the answer...but that's harder to argue against than the extreme end of the spectrum.

 

Just like expecting them to spend 100M isn't the same as expecting them to compete with the Dodgers and Yankees for spending...

[Guest USAFChief]

No. Lack of free agents in total.

But you just told us the Twins would improve through internal improvements supplemented by FAs.

[drjim]

How many years of Ryan NOT signing FAs, or trading prospects for legit players, do you need before you will say it is part of how he acts? Not what he says, because talk is cheap, but how he acts?

 

I want to see it when team is in position to compete and not clearly rebuilding.

 

If Ryan leaves money on the table at that point it would be unacceptable.

[ThePuck]

But you just told us the Twins would improve through internal improvements supplemented by FAs.

 

apparently there will be a lot more free agents when we're ready to compete :-) You know, in that year...

[drjim]

But you just told us the Twins would improve through internal improvements supplemented by FAs.

 

Correct. They have signed complimentary type of free agents. When the Twins are in position to compete I expect a slight upgrade but not to the point some people want them to sign even now.

[jay]

Guys, 3 on 1 isn't fair!

 

Pre-TF, it's easy to understand.

 

The payroll trajectory was right the first couple years of TF, but it's certainly hard to understand the last 2 years. Those years did coincide with a clear reversal in performance from the previous few years. I wish the payroll was higher both this year and last, and it's hard to clearly explain why it's not because we don't have full access to the internal decision making and information. Conversely, it's very easy to argue that more money should have been spent on x and y.

 

However, we truly don't have enough information to say what will happen when this team shows even flashes of being on an upswing. I certainly expect and hope that a few, select FA (six year or Int'l) acquisitions will be a part of that at a level higher than our previous forays into FA.

[Mike Sixel]

Assuming they will be good in 2 years (which I doubt), wouldn't siging a cuban in his prime to play 1B to a long term deal actually help in years 2-4/5? Can they jump start the rebuild some, or does it have to wait? And, who have they signed as complimentary free agents that cost more than a million or two, ever, under Ryan or even Smith? And, to me, RP don't really count.....but for some I am sure they do.

[Mike Sixel]

btw, I love that drjim is willing to stand up for his opinion against three people. I hope he is taking this in the spriit (we all want the Twins to be good) it is meant. I feel no anger or acrimony in this discussion at all.

[ThePuck]

Assuming they will be good in 2 years (which I doubt), wouldn't siging a cuban in his prime to play 1B to a long term deal actually help in years 2-4/5? Can they jump start the rebuild some, or does it have to wait? And, who have they signed as complimentary free agents that cost more than a million or two, ever, under Ryan or even Smith? And, to me, RP don't really count.....but for some I am sure they do.

 

I'm going to guess Willingham, Doumit and Carroll will be the answers while leaving out we lost Kubel, Cuddy and Nathan in the same offseason. :-) Willingham, our biggest FA signing ever.

 

Oh wait, tjhose weren't complimentary pieces while we were competitive, so I don't know..

[jay]

Assuming they will be good in 2 years (which I doubt), wouldn't siging a cuban in his prime to play 1B to a long term deal actually help in years 2-4/5? Can they jump start the rebuild some, or does it have to wait? And, who have they signed as complimentary free agents that cost more than a million or two, ever, under Ryan or even Smith? And, to me, RP don't really count.....but for some I am sure they do.

 

Absolutely. This coming offseason or the next would seem to be the time to strike a mid-to-longer term deal. Supplement your young talent with veteran/prime talent and take the payroll hit while you prepare for the kids to get paid big.

 

However, it's extremely hard to attract those talents to a losing team without a clear overpay and that makes me a bit pessimistic about this coming offseason. It makes me hope for the int'l FAs a little more who might be more likely.

[drjim]

Assuming they will be good in 2 years (which I doubt), wouldn't siging a cuban in his prime to play 1B to a long term deal actually help in years 2-4/5? Can they jump start the rebuild some, or does it have to wait? And, who have they signed as complimentary free agents that cost more than a million or two, ever, under Ryan or even Smith? And, to me, RP don't really count.....but for some I am sure they do.

 

This is a good point. The three international guys are separate from what I am talking about. The Twins absolutely should be aggressive here.

 

They certainly have money and needs at the positions and they are players entering their primes.

 

My concern is the large market teams will make offers the mid tier teams can't match. I want to see the final contracts signed.

[drjim]

btw, I love that drjim is willing to stand up for his opinion against three people. I hope he is taking this in the spriit (we all want the Twins to be good) it is meant. I feel no anger or acrimony in this discussion at all.

 

Oh I love it. And I have great respect for you as posters and your opinions (even though I often disagree).

 

I think this is an interesting debate about the right method for a rebuild. I feel strongly about my position but there are clear and reasonable objections that can be raised and should be answered.

[old nurse]

Unfortunately, if the Twins don't make any signings it's backdoors like this that allow people to continue to assert that we "don't know" what Ryan would do or that the situation wsan't right, or whatever. There is a never ending supply of weak supports people can concoct.

 

The problem is that the much stronger evidence contradicts them, unfortunately they continue to put the burden of proving the future on other people and asserting that their guess is just as good as anyone else. When, in fact, it isn't - even if it comes true in the future.

 

You fail to even acknowledge that there is a difference in the career trajectories for the internationals versus domestic FA. If Ryan does not add multiple near ready major league talent as well as a high quality FA this off season then there probably shouldn't be much support for Ryan. On the other hand, even if he does do that, there still will be the negatives with scenarios based in what they believe to be true lining up criticisms.

[josecordoba]

Few Thoughts

 

1. Let's assume the Twins are a 72 Win Team (Fangraphs Projections). This is factoring in a slight overachiement due to Phytagorean numbers. The reality is the team's overall talent level probably isn't worth huge expenditures in Free Agency. If one goes by the Standard assumption of 5-6 Million Dollars per 1 War. The Twins to use Free Agency to be competitive (.500) would have probably needed to increase Payroll $50-60 Million Dollars. One can't assume every Free Agent investment is going to strike gold.

 

2. I know nothing about this Guerrero fellow. What I can say for certain is his value might reach a point where the Twins don't consider it a prudent use of resources. Let's says the Twins project him as a 3 possible three WAR player then perhaps 15 Million Dollars could be spent on something of a surer bet.

[old nurse]

Few Thoughts

 

I know nothing about this Guerrero fellow. What I can say for certain is his value might reach a point where the Twins don't consider it a prudent use of resources. Let's says the Twins project him as a 3 possible three WAR player then perhaps 15 Million Dollars could be spent on something of a surer bet.

Say Guerrero was viewed as an average of 2 war per year player for the term of his contract. The 5 mil per WAR would make him a bargain at the 7/40 numbers posted various places that it is said that he is seeking.

A 3 WAR would mean he would be in the top 10 of shortstops in baseball. To be a 3 WAR he would have to probably OPS over .800 if his fielding isn't great.

[Mike Sixel]

Few Thoughts

 

1. Let's assume the Twins are a 72 Win Team (Fangraphs Projections). This is factoring in a slight overachiement due to Phytagorean numbers. The reality is the team's overall talent level probably isn't worth huge expenditures in Free Agency. If one goes by the Standard assumption of 5-6 Million Dollars per 1 War. The Twins to use Free Agency to be competitive (.500) would have probably needed to increase Payroll $50-60 Million Dollars. One can't assume every Free Agent investment is going to strike gold.

 

2. I know nothing about this Guerrero fellow. What I can say for certain is his value might reach a point where the Twins don't consider it a prudent use of resources. Let's says the Twins project him as a 3 possible three WAR player then perhaps 15 Million Dollars could be spent on something of a surer bet.

 

 

Well, I'm assuming Sano comes up, and adds 1-3 wins over Plouffe, for no money. I am assuming Gibson is reasonably effective next year, also at minimum salary. I'd hope Arcia being here all year makes them better. I'd hope that anyone would be better than Hicks was this year. All of that can happen at zero dollars.....if each of those is worth 2 wins, that means they only need to sign 1 legit FA pitcher to get to .500.

 

If you want to sign a guy that will be here for 4-6 years, and who can help Buxton and Hicks and Arcia, sign Ellsbury, that's worth 2-4 wins. Bring up Sano as early as possible, replace Plouffe, that's worth 2-4 wins. Sign a 1b/DH type that isn't awful like Doumit, and that is closer to the median than Morneau, that's 2 wins or more. Gibson isn't awful. Arcia is up all year and plays slightly better than this year. Some random pitcher isn't as bad as Diamond/Hendriks/pelfrey.....it isn't that hard, if you are willing to spend some money.

 

They lose a lot of payroll this year, sign actually good players (funny, the scouts that recommended KC, Worley, and Pelfrey, they are getting a free pass right now from fans), it isn't that hard. Heck, if Buxton can come up, you could have the greatest OF defense ever with him and Ellsbury and Hicks.

[TheLeviathan]

You fail to even acknowledge that there is a difference in the career trajectories for the internationals versus domestic FA. If Ryan does not add multiple near ready major league talent as well as a high quality FA this off season then there probably shouldn't be much support for Ryan. On the other hand, even if he does do that, there still will be the negatives with scenarios based in what they believe to be true lining up criticisms.

 

We are gonna find out real soon about that last part. I get the feeling the "negatives" are far more inclined to be effusive with their praise than you will ever find Ryans defenders be willing to assign criticism. Lots of people on the record that it will be "on Ryan".....we will see how true to their word they are.

 

I Would love to do nothing but shout the praises of Ryan this offseason. HE most definitely has the resources to do it.

[jokin]

They lose a lot of payroll this year, sign actually good players (funny, the scouts that recommended KC, Worley, and Pelfrey, they are getting a free pass right now from fans), it isn't that hard. Heck, if Buxton can come up, you could have the greatest OF defense ever with him and Ellsbury and Hicks.

 

Yes, the scouts that insisted to the GM that these 3 were all "better than their numbers" are all still in place, as is the basic philosophy from the GM about not making a big $ "mistake" at all costs, as long as this link is in place recommending and acquiring starting pitchers, it really is going to be this hard.

 

If the Twins actually would be willing to spend the big available dollars on legitimate SP talent, they can forgo signing Ellsbury, trade for Giancarlo Stanton, and still have the best defensive OF ever.

[Oxtung]

On your second point, sure Greinke could be a cornerstone. But no chance he was coming here - but that is my opinion and it has been debated to death and resurrected many times. I really don't want to go there.

 

So who were you originally talking about that would sacrifice our financial flexibility in the next 2-3 years?

[Oxtung]

This debate precisely echoes that of about a year ago. The undying Ryan supporters promised that this time they would be "lining up their criticisms" if Ryan failed to deliver in the offseason with "multiple near ready major league talent as well as a high quality FA SP". All the while, they were fully uninhibited in implying that the doubters were really just irrational haters, incapable of finding anything positive in Ryan's approach to the job.

 

Now we get to witness yet another round of their promises and admonitions...Ryan has even more resources to work with than last year...should be fun, or frustrating, or both.

 

I would like to fess up and state that I was on the "Ryan will change his tune" bandwagon last year. I was making the exact same arguments drjim is making right now, at least the his arguments about how things are different now then they were in the Dome. Fool me once....