3 Years Experience/Payroll All 30 teams - LH/RH starting pitcher win tracker

[Jim H]

I haven't commented on this thread for quite awhile, haven't seen much point. A few observations. Even though the Twins have a losing record against left handed starters, they averaged more runs per game against them than against right handers. I expect part of reason for that could be that the 3 best hitters during the 1st quarter of the season were right handed, Jeffers, Buxton, and Martin.

I am glad the Twins gave Lee, Keaschall, and Martin enough runway to prove they deserved consistent playing time. I appreciate the fact they did the same for Wallner and Lewis and also the fact they were demoted when they couldn't take advantage of the runway.

I don't appreciate the fact that to this point, Bell and Caratini have been as bad of investments as I was afraid they would be. They along along Lewis and Wallner are the major reasons there is little consistent production or continuity from the 3-4-5 hitters.

I appreciate the fact that all the career backups and platoon players currently on the roster play hard, take good at bats, and play most of the good defense we see from this roster. I don't appreciate the fact that nobody among our top prospects has been able to either stay healthy or play well enough to replace them.

[Riverbrian]

On 6/3/2026 at 6:55 AM, Riverbrian said:

Last Game Right Handed Starter

June 2 - Davis Martin - Won - 6 Runs Scored

Lineup Composition: 4 RH - 2 Switch - 3 LH

Season Record vs RH Starters: 21-21

Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.64

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters

Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12

Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70

 

Last Game Right Handed Starter

June 3 - Erick Fedde - Loss - Zero Runs Scored

Lineup Composition: 4 RH 3 Switch 2 LH

Season Record vs RH Starter: 21-22

Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starter: 4.53

------------------------------------------------------------------

Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters

Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12

Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70

 

[Riverbrian]

Last night was the first time the Twins were shut-out. 

It took 63 games for the first shutout.  I don't if that's impressive or not. It feels slightly impressive. 

I also think it's notable that Erick Fedde was able to lower his ERA from 5.40 to 4.96 with his 5 innings of zeros hung.

The night before... we scored 6 runs on Davis Martin and raised his ERA from 2.00 to 2.64. 

Fedde beat Bradley and Prielipp beat Martin. There are no absolutes in the game of baseball. 

 

 

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It took 63 games for the first shutout.  I don't if that's impressive or not. It feels slightly impressive. 

It feels misleading to me. 

1) The Rays are having a good season.  Their run-scoring is about the same as the Twins.  They've been shut out 3 times.  But they've been held to 1 run only five times.  Our Twins have been shut out just once, but they've scored 1 run ten times.  Not much difference in win probability, 0 versus 1 run.  The Rays happened to pitch a shutout one of the times I mentioned, the Twins won none of their 1-run offense games, "as expected".  Bottom line, there's not much difference in scoring a run versus not, if we're looking at shutouts only.

1a) Atlanta is right up at the top with the Nationals and Dodgers, in runs scored.  They've been shut out five times this season, and scored 1 run five other times.  Lost 'em all, "as expected."  As for the Nationals and Dodgerts, two shutouts and six 1-run games, for each of them - no wins.  Anyway, none of these offenses have demonstrated the same kind of futility as often as our Twins have.  To be "impressive", I'd want to see the Twins be on more of a par with the big boys, in avoiding the no-chance-to-win games.

2)  The eye test tells me this is just not a reliable offense.  I realize their runs per game are a titch above league average.  They racks up runs, like any team does, when the opposition is weak in some way.  But it "feels" to me like it's more of a factor with this team than average.  The eye test also tells me a lot of times they score meaningless runs to avert the shutout; that's hard to define a metric for and I certainly don't know how.  It's perplexing that now and then they'll score against top opposing pitchers, and I don't know how to separate out "good pitcher having a bad day" versus "good pitcher unable to shut our unstoppable guys down," either.

 

[Jim H]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

It feels misleading to me. 

1) The Rays are having a good season.  Their run-scoring is about the same as the Twins.  They've been shut out 3 times.  But they've been held to 1 run only five times.  Our Twins have been shut out just once, but they've scored 1 run ten times.  Not much difference in win probability, 0 versus 1 run.  The Rays happened to pitch a shutout one of the times I mentioned, the Twins won none of their 1-run offense games, "as expected".  Bottom line, there's not much difference in scoring a run versus not, if we're looking at shutouts only.

1a) Atlanta is right up at the top with the Nationals and Dodgers, in runs scored.  They've been shut out five times this season, and scored 1 run five other times.  Lost 'em all, "as expected."  As for the Nationals and Dodgerts, two shutouts and six 1-run games, for each of them - no wins.  Anyway, none of these offenses have demonstrated the same kind of futility as often as our Twins have.  To be "impressive", I'd want to see the Twins be on more of a par with the big boys, in avoiding the no-chance-to-win games.

2)  The eye test tells me this is just not a reliable offense.  I realize their runs per game are a titch above league average.  They racks up runs, like any team does, when the opposition is weak in some way.  But it "feels" to me like it's more of a factor with this team than average.  The eye test also tells me a lot of times they score meaningless runs to avert the shutout; that's hard to define a metric for and I certainly don't know how.  It's perplexing that now and then they'll score against top opposing pitchers, and I don't know how to separate out "good pitcher having a bad day" versus "good pitcher unable to shut our unstoppable guys down," either.

 

Well written post. Your no.2 is spot on. The eye test seems to say there is no real  consistency with this team.I feel like there are too many boom or bust guys on this roster, too many platoon, guys, and not enough real hitting talent. It doesn't help that some of the guys who were expected to be at least big league everyday regulars, are not and may never be.

[Riverbrian]

On 6/3/2026 at 11:57 AM, Jim H said:

I haven't commented on this thread for quite awhile, haven't seen much point. A few observations. Even though the Twins have a losing record against left handed starters, they averaged more runs per game against them than against right handers. I expect part of reason for that could be that the 3 best hitters during the 1st quarter of the season were right handed, Jeffers, Buxton, and Martin.

I am glad the Twins gave Lee, Keaschall, and Martin enough runway to prove they deserved consistent playing time. I appreciate the fact they did the same for Wallner and Lewis and also the fact they were demoted when they couldn't take advantage of the runway.

I don't appreciate the fact that to this point, Bell and Caratini have been as bad of investments as I was afraid they would be. They along along Lewis and Wallner are the major reasons there is little consistent production or continuity from the 3-4-5 hitters.

I appreciate the fact that all the career backups and platoon players currently on the roster play hard, take good at bats, and play most of the good defense we see from this roster. I don't appreciate the fact that nobody among our top prospects has been able to either stay healthy or play well enough to replace them.

Yeah... these posts are hard to discuss... unfinished data builds with no conclusion but I appreciate the discussion and the posts. 

Runs scored are just extra data that I'm tracking because I'm really after wins, losses and composition but it is still interesting. 

I think you raise a good point with Jeffers, Buxton and Martin being among our best and all right handed so therefore we score more against left handers. This genesis of everything on this thread is really a talent discussion.

I don't entirely disagree with you but I think it's important to point out that 4.70 vs 4.53 is really close. It's essentially one more run every 6 games. That's 20 starts vs left handers and now 43 starts vs RH. The first 20 starts against Right Handers. The Twins sat at 4.98 vs Right Handed Pitchers. The 2nd 20 games against right handers the Twins were 4.15 vs Right Handers. That's about 15 less runs. 

The real killer stretch against right handed pitching was from May 6 to May 28. There were 16 games against Right Handed Pitching. The 22nd game against right handed pitching to the 37th game against right handed pitching. During that stretch the Team went from averaging 5.19 on game 21 (Highest 2026 Average) per game against the RH Starter to 4.41 on game 37 (Lowest 2026 Average). The average during those 16 games was 3.43 per game. And Oddly enough... The Twins were 8-8 against right handed starters during that 3.43 per game stretch. 

The average in 20 games can really be influenced by big numbers in single games or a streak of them. The Twins scored 22 runs in vs three left handed starters from May 14 to May 22 vs Garrett, (9) Gasser(5) and Tolle(8). They were at 4.44 before that really good week. What will the next 20 games bring... You and I will have to watch.

I just believe in doing data entry myself because doing the data entry lets you watch the wheels turn. The gaps tighten. The differences narrow. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

It feels misleading to me. 

1) The Rays are having a good season.  Their run-scoring is about the same as the Twins.  They've been shut out 3 times.  But they've been held to 1 run only five times.  Our Twins have been shut out just once, but they've scored 1 run ten times.  Not much difference in win probability, 0 versus 1 run.  The Rays happened to pitch a shutout one of the times I mentioned, the Twins won none of their 1-run offense games, "as expected".  Bottom line, there's not much difference in scoring a run versus not, if we're looking at shutouts only.

1a) Atlanta is right up at the top with the Nationals and Dodgers, in runs scored.  They've been shut out five times this season, and scored 1 run five other times.  Lost 'em all, "as expected."  As for the Nationals and Dodgerts, two shutouts and six 1-run games, for each of them - no wins.  Anyway, none of these offenses have demonstrated the same kind of futility as often as our Twins have.  To be "impressive", I'd want to see the Twins be on more of a par with the big boys, in avoiding the no-chance-to-win games.

2)  The eye test tells me this is just not a reliable offense.  I realize their runs per game are a titch above league average.  They racks up runs, like any team does, when the opposition is weak in some way.  But it "feels" to me like it's more of a factor with this team than average.  The eye test also tells me a lot of times they score meaningless runs to avert the shutout; that's hard to define a metric for and I certainly don't know how.  It's perplexing that now and then they'll score against top opposing pitchers, and I don't know how to separate out "good pitcher having a bad day" versus "good pitcher unable to shut our unstoppable guys down," either.

 

I love when you do this type of research. 

When I said slightly impressive. I meant they should have been shut out by now. Historically... statistically... teams usually get shut out 4? 5? times a year. They shouldn't have lasted 40 games without a skunk. 63 is fairly impressive. It certainly wasn't a statement about the glory of this patched together offense. 😉

Runs Scored? Nothing makes much sense with the 2026 Twins. I know you are already on this stuff so I don't have to point it out. But... Wow...  The Twins are 7th in runs scored.

The Twins are also 19th in OPS, 18th in OBP, 16th in Slug, 20th in BA. 13th in SB while they have been caught stealing the 5th most. 16th in BB's, 14th in HR's, 12th in Total Bases. 24th in K's. 

Exactly how is this team 7th in Runs Scored. What statistic or combination of statistics is producing the 7th most runs scored in MLB. This team is excelling at nothing besides crossing the plate. 

You and I talked about sequencing in regards to Wallner awhile back. Perhaps this would be a time to talk about sequencing again from the opposite direction. I honestly don't know and can't explain it. Certainly doesn't feel sustainable. 

[ashbury]

56 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I love when you do this type of research. 

When I said slightly impressive. I meant they should have been shut out by now. Historically... statistically... teams usually get shut out 4? 5? times a year. They shouldn't have lasted 40 games without a skunk. 63 is fairly impressive. It certainly wasn't a statement about the glory of this patched together offense. 😉

Runs Scored? Nothing makes much sense with the 2026 Twins. I know you are already on this stuff so I don't have to point this stuff out but... 

The Twins are 7th in runs scored. 19th in OPS, 18th in OBP, 16th in Slug, 20th in BA. 13th in SB while they have been caught stealing the 5th most. 16th in BB's, 14th in HR's, 12th in Total Bases. 24th in K's. 

Exactly how is this team 7th in Runs Scored. What statistic or combination of statistics is producing the 7th most runs scored in MLB. This team is excelling at nothing besides crossing the plate. 

You and I talked about sequencing in regards to Wallner awhile back. Perhaps this would be a time to talk about sequencing again from the opposite direction. I honestly don't know and can't explain it. Certainly doesn't feel sustainable. 

They should get credit for their effort, because I know no one is intentionally trying to fail.  But if you are flipping coins, or playing some other chance-based games, you can get anomalous results such as seen above, with a string of low-offensive output that just happens to scratch across a run.  I don't believe baseball is anything like coin-flipping, but you can use probability methods to make sense of a lot in the game.  Neither do I think the Twins hitters have a mystical ability to Try Real Hard when facing a shutout and get that all-important tally across the plate to make the final score 5-1.  They try real hard all the time - for all the good it does them in many of these cases.  The chips fall where they may and the spreadsheets of results are not tidy.

As for sequencing...  I did a bit of checking, details which I won't bore you with except in summary, to say, yep, sequencing seems the likeliest cause.  OPS generally correlates very strongly with run scoring, but even at a team level it takes a long time for it not to be "small sample."  Right now the Twins are scoring runs at a much higher rate per game than last season, even with OPS still in that same range as last year - while at the same time, compared to two seasons ago they're scoring at about the same rate but based on a much lower OPS.  IOW the last two seasons line up like someone might expect, OPS to R/G, while this year's an outlier so far.

Meanwhile league-wide the correlation remains steady across the three seasons.  This season's runs per game across the majors is up a tiny, tiny bit, on slightly lower aggregate OPS - perhaps due entirely to the anomaly in scoring by our Twins.

Asking whether productive sequencing can persist amounts to the "does clutch hitting exist?" argument, and I don't want to provoke a lengthy back and forth but will put my chips on the "not likely to persist long-term" side.  Maybe the hitting coaches found the magic elixir but I doubt it.  Even if sequencing goes back to normal for the rest of the season, 2026 may end up with slightly high run scoring compared to similar other team OPSes - I don't believe "luck" (which I think is the wrong term to use anyway) evens out, merely regresses to some mean eventually.

Wallner, I believe, is a different story than this team-wide sequencing effect for the Twins.  I think opposing pitchers know how to pitch to him.  Bases empty, or even with runners but a large lead (or deficit), he can't really hurt them.  So they give him pitches that give him a chance to park one over the fence but also a greater chance of an out, when he can't hurt them, and his stats (which he's NOT intentionally padding) go up in those cases, and make you think he is producing when it counts.  But, by this theory, he somehow can't compensate enough for the different way he's pitched when the chips are down.  (I'm not enough of a scout or pitching/hitting coach to describe what the pitchers are doing, or what Wallner is failing to do.)  Again, that's a lengthy discussion that I don't plan to defend again, merely putting down explicitly as my view for the sake of this little dialog.  

Good stuff.