Improving the FIP stat

[robbie111]

Since all homers are considered equal in this stat with a 13 multiplier why not change that to a 7 with no one on, an 11 with one man on a 15 with 2 men on and a 19 for grand slams. It would punish pitchers who perform badly in pressure situations and reward those who mostly give up Hr's in garbage situations.

[Parker Hageman]

I'm not opposed to that.

[jay]

While I agree with the premise, we have to balance it with relative simplicity. I can find the inputs to calculate FIP for a pitcher quickly. It would take longer to track down those breakdowns.

[ThePuck]

Just a question. Hasn't the pitcher's FIP already taken a hit for getting runners on base to begin with, if they got on by a walk?

[Boone]

Since all homers are considered equal in this stat with a 13 multiplier why not change that to a 7 with no one on, an 11 with one man on a 15 with 2 men on and a 19 for grand slams. It would punish pitchers who perform badly in pressure situations and reward those who mostly give up Hr's in garbage situations.

 

I think this actually goes against the purpose of FIP, which is intended to eliminate the situational aspect of pitching and give an expected ERA based solely off of hits, walks, etc. According to Fangraphs, "Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average."

The important thing to note here is "timing," which is why it doesn't factor in how many men were on base when a home run is hit. The general premise is that over an extended period of time, performance would regress to the mean and be similar regardless of how many men were on base; this is similar to looking at LOB% to determine if a player will regress or improve from one season to the next.

[jay]

Great post, Boone.

 

Just a question. Hasn't the pitcher's FIP already taken a hit for getting runners on base to begin with, if they got on by a walk?

 

Yes, or HBP for that matter.

[ThePuck]

Great post, Boone.

 

 

 

Yes, or HBP for that matter.

 

exactly. since that's the case, why have the pitcher take a hit on his FIP twice?

[ashbury]

I think this actually goes against the purpose of FIP

 

I think Robbie is therefore proposing something new, based on a supposition that there are differences among pitchers in how they give up HRs. Jack Morris was supposed to be good at pitching-to-the-score, for instance. Except, as I recall it, when someone actually dug into his results game by game, they couldn't actually detect any such pattern. I'd need to see some evidence that some pitchers are more prone to situational HRs than others, before investing much time in constructing a new stat. My guess is that pretty much every pitcher gives up more HR with the bases empty, because they all pitch differently when men are on base - and if some pitcher happens to have results that vary from this pattern in a given season, it probably is just Small Sample Size (only a dozen or two HR in a season, after all) and the pattern doesn't carry over to the next season.

[jay]

exactly. since that's the case, why have the pitcher take a hit on his FIP twice?

 

 

Good point. The proposed men on-base factoring would probably need to subtract out that effect.