How Often does the "Favorite" Team Win World Series?

[Trov]

I read many fans on hear talking about how we will not be the "favorite" to win the world series and we need to make trades to make it happen.  I decided to look and see historically how often the "favorite" team actually wins the World Series.  It is a basic look by looking at betting odds pre-season and then post season, as teams most likely changed roster as year moved on. I did not do a deep dive or anything.  If the team had the best odds to win either the pre-season or post I considered them the favorite.  There was 1 time the preseason favorite was not the post season favorite, but most of the time they were either both, or was a post season favorite.  If they tied with another team I counted it as a favorite. I went back to 1995, when the playoffs first expanded to 8 teams. 

Now I get it, betting odds are not the best judge of who is the favorite, but it gives a decent look as to how book makers and betters may have thought about the team. When thinking about it I was guessing about 20% of the time it happened.  It was actually 34% of the time.  Two times the pre-season was then tied going into playoffs. Two times the winner was not a pre-season favorite but was entering playoffs.  As I said I did include the 2009 Yankees who pre-season was favorite but not entering the playoffs.  

There are some years where the winning team was considered one of the least likely entering the playoffs, and some years they were close second if they were not the favorite.  Overall, if you are the favorite betting odds wise either entering season or entering playoffs, you win it 1 third of the time.  Not bad, but far from a lock.  Yes, there are years where the second favorite wins, I did not calculate those as the question was just for favorite.  There are also years where very deep odds teams and least favorite entering the playoffs manage to win as well.  For those who may be wondering, Dodgers were the favorite entering the year this year.  

[nicksaviking]

THE favorite? Rarely. 

One of the top four or five favorites? Nearly every time.

The Twins need to stop being satisfied going into the playoffs as an underdog. Makes for cute Hollywood sports movies, but sucks for winning championships.

[Parfigliano]

I wonder what the correlation is between highest payroll entering the playoffs and winning the WS is?

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I wonder what the correlation is between highest payroll entering the playoffs and winning the WS is?

'Higher payroll' surely correlates to 'best players'.

A team like the Twins can (and has) gotten around that correlation by trading for good players while they were still affordable.

[Trov]

On 8/7/2024 at 10:31 AM, nicksaviking said:

THE favorite? Rarely. 

One of the top four or five favorites? Nearly every time.

The Twins need to stop being satisfied going into the playoffs as an underdog. Makes for cute Hollywood sports movies, but sucks for winning championships.

Up until recently only 8 teams made the playoffs, so to be in top 4 or 5 means the top half or more than top half the teams.  That is a pretty big ratio. 

[Trov]

On 8/8/2024 at 8:16 AM, Parfigliano said:

I wonder what the correlation is between highest payroll entering the playoffs and winning the WS is?

Since 1995, the wild card era, 5 times has the top payroll team, entering the season won the world series, 4 of those times were the Yankees, 96, 99, 00, 09.  The other was the Red Sox, 18.  3 times the 2nd highest payroll was the winner, Yankees 98, Red Sox 04 and 07.  The 3rd highest has never done it.  The 4th 3 times Braves 95, Red Sox 14, Nats 19. 5th did it 1 time Marlins 97.  6th did it 2 times Giants 12 and Cubs 16. 

Overall, a team does have a at least a top half payroll, but that is not surprising.  It is not always because of signing big time FA, but rarely does an all rookie or guys within first few years make playoffs.  So if they have value when they hit arb years they will start making good money.  Throw in a few resigning your own players or a supplemental FA and your payroll will rise. There are few times the highest paid player ends up taking a team to the WS, but having more high floor guys, or taking on a guy in a trade that is making bigger money normally helps too. 

[nicksaviking]

57 minutes ago, Trov said:

Up until recently only 8 teams made the playoffs, so to be in top 4 or 5 means the top half or more than top half the teams.  That is a pretty big ratio. 

There hasn't been a four team playoff in 30 years. Seems like just yesterday to me too, but baseball played in those days was a completely different game than it is now.

[Trov]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

There hasn't been a four team playoff in 30 years. Seems like just yesterday to me too, but baseball played in those days was a completely different game than it is now.

Yes, I said up until recently, was had 8 team playoffs, 3 division winners and the wild card team per league.  Then we added a second wild card team in 1 game playoff which started in 2012, which expanded to 10, but only a single game for 2 teams and not a series.  Then in 2022 it was expanded to the current format of 3 wild card teams and 3 division winners per league for a total of 12 teams. That is what I was referring to that we recently had 8 team playoffs. 

[Trov]

On 8/8/2024 at 10:35 AM, nicksaviking said:

'Higher payroll' surely correlates to 'best players'.

A team like the Twins can (and has) gotten around that correlation by trading for good players while they were still affordable.

I would push back against highest payroll correlates to best players.  Generally, the better the player the more they get paid, after they reach arb years or FA, however, many vets sign long term deals that equal very overpaid player.  For teams that are not big market teams they cannot have too many of them on their team.  I could go on many examples of players that are on contracts but no where near earning their money. Heck, on Twins CC could be argued to be one of them. Last year the top 3 paid teams failed to make the playoffs. 

[lecroy24fan]

My favorite team has won 2 World Series in my lifetime.

[Parfigliano]

I know TC wasn't the favorite going into the year either year they won.  I'm pretty sure they weren't even the favorite between the two teams in the World Series they won.