Article: Twins Center Field Depth Is Tested

[jokin]

If you want to make the WAR argument that Borbon would have made a difference over Hicks then check out Borbon's WAR for this year. It is also negative. Projecting to full season, they would be similar. That is using WAR as you did.

 

Uhh, "nope". Borbon is a late-inning replacement for the Cubs, mostly not in CF, with all of 56 PAs. Not the same comparison to Hicks, whatsoever. Borbon has been an above-replacement level and competent CF throughout his career. The part of my comment that you bolded has still not been refuted. Assuming that Borbon gives you career average, the numbers would not be similar at all.

[LaBombo]

If you want to make the WAR argument that Borbon would have made a difference over Hicks then check out Borbon's WAR for this year. It is also negative. Projecting to full season, they would be similar. That is using WAR as you did.

If your point was that WAR isn't the ideal tool to compare small samples of AB's like Hicks and Borbon in 2013, fair enough; even a more detailed analysis is of limited use with sss's like these.

 

But if you're suggesting that Borbon, at age 27 and having posted a career.279/.321/.354 MLB line, along with a 1.6 WAR in the 3 seasons he received significant playing time, wouldn't be a significant upgrade over Hicks... that's a hard sell.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

All this talk about CF depth? Yikes! There are so many holes on this team that to focus on a short-term problem is myopic. Power-hitting, timely hitting, plain 'ol hitting are a lot bigger problem than CF. Middle infield? Wasn't Sunday's doubleheader sufficient evidence to realize that problem is far worse? No need to even mention the elephant in the room.

 

I agree. I was at the Sunday game. Our middle IF totally sucks and farm system replacements (Polanco) are years away. Hicks has improved on the year--I think he is batting about .280 over the last month--better than Revere. He and Parmalee looked good in the OF. Hicks will be a good LF in 2015 when Buxton gets here.

 

Injuries happen--I like someone's idea--play Arcia in CF--keep Parmalee in the lineup until Wilken is healthy. Until we solve our middle IF and starting pitching problems (why we traded Span and Revere) we are not going to be a contending team.

[Shane Wahl]

My problem with Ryan is that, once he made the trades, he decided that the team's best option was to sacrifice a year of control on Hicks and rush him up the the majors and then leave him there once it was clear he wasn't ready. It's a wasted year no matter what at the ML level (and if they didn't think it was going to be a wasted year, they would have gone after much better pitching than they did) but now they may have wasted one of the better assets they had in the organization at the moment.

 

Yes, Hicks was not the guy, and I still think that even Brandon Boggs could have filled in with Mastro hurt. But after a certain point when Hicks started to get it slowly but surely there is no way that he should be demoted.

 

Think of it this way: If Joe Mauer got off to such a terrible start of .075 or whatever after a three-four weeks, Mauer's average would be up to about .260 right now. Hicks is not a .330 hitter. He likely is a .260 hitter and so a player like that is going to take awhile to make his batting average appear at all respectable.

[Shane Wahl]

I think the trades for quality starting pitching prospects with high upside was a must with the Twins situation at the end of the year last year. Especially considering the free agent market. (Just think we could have Edwin Jackson's bloated 5+ ERA right now for the minimal price tag of 52 million over 4 years.. Or Lohse at 33 million/3 years and give up our 2nd round pick)

 

With that said I think our CF situation now is only a short term issue brought on by injury. Hicks has been improving since his horrid April which is what the Twins want out of him - to continue to develop. People are blowing the arbitration issue way out of proportion. IMO he is more valuable to the Twins now than he will be in his final year of arbitration because of the outfield talent coming up in the minors. If he can play a sound CF while learning to hit MLB pitching he will have a lineup spot for the next few years (until Baby Jesus arrives). The fact that Benson was lost on waivers (not released as some people seem to think) shortens the list of viable options but with the offensive numbers he was putting up in AAA there is no guarantee he would have been called up anyways.

 

There is no way to judge how Jackson would have been in Target Field. Wrigley is a very different place.

[LaBombo]

These rants indicate (to me) someone who drank the Kool-Aid before the season started about "competitive" and now has realized that there never was a scenario for "competitive" in 2013. Take a nap, no more sugar, and definately no more Kool-Aid!

There was a river of kool-aid regarding Hicks, Parmelee, and Gibson before the season started, but that seems to be gradually drying up.

 

Also, you might be lumping 'competitive' and 'competent' together in the same expectations pile. Lack of competitiveness may have been a foregone offseason conclusion, but little things like a center fielder who can play ball, or Marcum instead of Pelfrey, those are things that help restore competence to the product on the field.

 

And if even competence is too much of a stretch for people, then a decent CF alternative would at least ensure that Hicks is in the majors because it's the best place for him, not because the Twins don't have anyone else to put out there.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, call me whatever you want, but I bet a lot of da moneys that Joe Benson would have been better in April than Hicks was, and Hicks would have benefited from a month or more in AAA. Boggs would have been better too. It's pretty damn remarkable that the Twins went from Span, Revere, Hicks, Mastro, Benson, and Thomas, to just Hicks and Thomas AFTER adding Brandon Boggs into the mix in the offseason. 7 guys down to 2. If they had a short leash on Benson I am not sure why they didn't keep Boggs around.

 

And now Thomas is going to force the hand of the Twins because it ain't going to go well for him. Who on earth at this point of the season would be thinking: "please WILKIN RAMIREZ get back to being healthy" or "Antoan Richardson, hell yeah, join this team"???

[johnnydakota]

This. Let's see how they hit. We'll worry about positions in 2 years when it matters.

 

A-friggin-men

[johnnydakota]

The trades were the correct trades to make. I don't see how anyone could have predicted Worley to be this damn terrible. Maybe bad, but not like this.

 

Benson didn't need to go anywhere so he would have been available instead of using true organizational filler to fill-in with a likely sub-500 OPS.

 

So you dont think a kid whos not pitched a full season and had an ERA over 4.25 in the national leaque last year , who was twice hurt , was a good investment? Didnt he also have to under go surgery this off season?

[old nurse]

Uhh, "nope". Borbon is a late-inning replacement for the Cubs, mostly not in CF, with all of 56 PAs. Not the same comparison to Hicks, whatsoever. Borbon has been an above-replacement level and competent CF throughout his career. The part of my comment that you bolded has still not been refuted. Assuming that Borbon gives you career average, the numbers would not be similar at all.

That bold showed up on your original post, I don't do that stuff. Borbon at his best year was a 1 WAR player. On average .5. There isn't a track record for Hicks to compare to. For this team Borbon playing full time versus Hicks would make a slight difference this year, but over time could be disputed. What is Hicks ceiling. Borbon's would appear to be 4th outfielder.

Yes the Twins traded away 2 successful players with someone who did not start out playing at their level. Hicks isn't even playing at the level Revere and Span played at. They also had a year more of minor league experience.

[LaBombo]

But after a certain point when Hicks started to get it slowly but surely there is no way that he should be demoted.

He's improved, but some of that improvement is really just his bad luck with batting average on balls in play evening out. He still often looks lost batting left-handed, and the numbers show most of his improvement since April has come against lefties.

 

It's way too early to worry much about his future, but it would be nice for Hicksie to work on his game in AAA, where he doesn't have as much to think about.

[jokin]

I agree. I was at the Sunday game. Our middle IF totally sucks and farm system replacements (Polanco) are years away. Hicks has improved on the year--I think he is batting about .280 over the last month--better than Revere. He and Parmalee looked good in the OF. Hicks will be a good LF in 2015 when Buxton gets here.

 

Injuries happen--I like someone's idea--play Arcia in CF--keep Parmalee in the lineup until Wilken is healthy. Until we solve our middle IF and starting pitching problems (why we traded Span and Revere) we are not going to be a contending team.

 

Hicks has improved, but his improvement is off of an incredibly awful debut month. Any signs of showing a pulse had to look better by comparison. For the record, he hasn't batted .280 over the last 30 days, Hicks has in fact, produced this:

 

.227/.261/.455/.715

 

His April line was this:

 

.113/.229/.127/.356

 

It's clear Hicks is experimenting with his approach at the plate. From April to May he morphed from being a very lousy NL pitcher at the plate, into a better-average-but-lower-OBP Adam Dunn. You're right in the big picture though, by 2015 he will have likely figured out who he really is at the plate (probably ~.275 BA/.735 OPS), and likely in LF and hopefully leading off, but that remains in doubt.

[johnnydakota]

So basically your position is that the Twins should have made a FA acquisition for CF before the season started, or shortly after it did, or possibly not traded Span and/or Revere.

 

I'm going to disagree. We knew it would be weak, but between Hicks, Ramirez & Mastroianni I thought we would be OK, so I'm OK with not adding. We're basically waiting for Buxton at that position anyway, and Hicks seemed to be a good stopgap (and I think may still be so with a little more experience). Benson had his chance to make the position his in ST and fell on his face, and continued doing so in Rocheser. And Borbon, by the way, is not exactly lighting up the scoreboard at his new team (Chicago NL), with a .591 OPS.

 

And I'm not going to address the WAR argument, because I think the metric is inherently flawed and doesn't add to my understanding of baseball. I'll accept other metrics for discussion but not WAR.

 

Once Mastroianni was hurt, Hicks struggling and Benson flopping , It would have been the right thing to do is accuiring a replacement ...After looking at Terrys off season , it is plain to me, that this team is playing better then he expected.What he assembled was pieces to make us bad enough to have a july fire sale, and start next year with a 30 million dollar payroll....Plain and simple

[jokin]

He's improved, but some of that improvement is really just his bad luck with batting average on balls in play evening out. He still often looks lost batting left-handed, and the numbers show most of his improvement since April has come against lefties.

 

It's way too early to worry much about his future, but it would be nice for Hicksie to work on his game in AAA, where he doesn't have as much to think about.

 

The 45% K rate in April was one element of some of that "bad luck", too!:fenforcer:

 

But on your meta-point, how did the TWins FO not understand that Hicks has made demonstrably slow and painful adjustments at each successive level and jumping 2 levels without an adequate backup plan was a recipe for short-term disaster?

[Shane Wahl]

Benson was "flopping" in a place Hicks had never even been, Jokin. I do not like going outside the organization to find replacement players. Hicks will end up being perfectly fine and will be a RF anyway by some point in 2015 with Buxton coming. I am not worried there. I saw Borbon make a ridiculously dumb defensive play last week for the Cubs. No thanks.

[jokin]

Benson was "flopping" in a place Hicks had never even been, Jokin. I do not like going outside the organization to find replacement players. Hicks will end up being perfectly fine and will be a RF anyway by some point in 2015 with Buxton coming. I am not worried there. I saw Borbon make a ridiculously dumb defensive play last week for the Cubs. No thanks.

 

One play is the basis for your decision-making on a player with pretty reliable career numbers? I am all for looking in-house first, as well. The Twins simply didn't have viable options with major league CF experience, hence, why a Pods or Borbon Plan B makes perfect sense to stabilize things when things go south.

[Shane Wahl]

The 45% K rate in April was one element of some of that "bad luck", too!:fenforcer:

 

But on your meta-point, how did the TWins FO not understand that Hicks has made demonstrably slow and painful adjustments at each successive level and jumping 2 levels without an adequate backup plan was a recipe for short-term disaster?

 

Well, yeah. I am all for promotion when players are just past their stride at a level, but when players are repeating levels and then SKIPPING levels (Parmelee, Dozier and Revere--for the most part, also apply here) something is wrong with the thinking in terms of development. It's terrible. Who can skip a level when it comes to AA to the majors? Sano and Buxton and that's probably it. Arcia basically did and he is the borderline case. And what's true about those three? They didn't repeat levels at all!

 

Boggs was going to be a .650-.700 OPS guy, likely. Not worthy of actual real MLB time, but certainly a better risk than Hicks. Hicks could have used 200 PAs in AAA. I just don't get it. But now, I don't think demotion does any good whatsoever, especially when the Twins got rid of everybody else!

[mako83]

Ok I was thinking Parmalee in center. Who cares about natural centerfielders any more. Treat it like basketball throw a right fielder who can push the ball over the fence from time to time.

[LaBombo]

The 45% K rate in April was one element of some of that "bad luck", too!:fenforcer:

 

But on your meta-point, how did the Twins FO not understand that Hicks has made demonstrably slow and painful adjustments at each successive level and jumping 2 levels without an adequate backup plan was a recipe for short-term disaster?

Yep, lower K rate = real improvement, higher babip = mostly just better-looking numbers...

 

It would be interesting to hear the real behind-the-scenes Hicks promotion thought process, not the Ryan PR spin about owing it to Justin, Joe, and Josh to bring the best spring training CF north. Even if they were 90% sure he'd succeed, it seems like the 10% contingency plan was a little weak even before Mastro's flat tire.

[jokin]

That bold showed up on your original post, I don't do that stuff. Borbon at his best year was a 1 WAR player. On average .5. There isn't a track record for Hicks to compare to. For this team Borbon playing full time versus Hicks would make a slight difference this year, but over time could be disputed. What is Hicks ceiling. Borbon's would appear to be 4th outfielder.

Yes the Twins traded away 2 successful players with someone who did not start out playing at their level. Hicks isn't even playing at the level Revere and Span played at. They also had a year more of minor league experience.

 

My point involved nothing about over time- of course Borbon is ideally a 4th OF, and a .5 WAR player backing up a struggling negative WAR player is more than a slight difference-especially if Hicks could make a couple 30 day trips to AAA to correct his deficiencies in a lower-stress environment. The point being, it was incumbent upon the Twins FO to just have properly anticipated legitimate options in worst-case scenarios.

[Shane Wahl]

One play is the basis for your decision-making on a player with pretty reliable career numbers? I am all for looking in-house first, as well. The Twins simply didn't have viable options with major league CF experience, hence, why a Pods or Borbon Plan B makes perfect sense to stabilize things when things go south.

 

Borbon hasn't been good this year at all. He's basically Brandon Boggs.

[Cris E]

I am all for looking in-house first, as well. The Twins simply didn't have viable options with major league CF experience, hence, why a Pods or Borbon Plan B makes perfect sense to stabilize things when things go south.

 

That's what Mastorontonioinio was for. He got hurt. Ramirez was the third choice. Three deep seems like a fair effort when the alternative is paying money for players like Borbon. The one decision that bears a little second-guessing is not protecting Benson better, but he played his way out on to the thin ice.

 

I guess I don't understand why you go out of your way to clutter the 40 man roster with this debris instead of biting the bullet for a week or two in a lost season. There are plenty of ways to get by while your guys get healthy, but at least when I watch Hicks I'm seeing an investment in the future of the team. People who insist on measuring management's commitment solely in terms of payroll or wins frustrate me.

[Kwak]

Look on the bright side--next June the Twins will select one or two slots higher--and hopefully get a more useful player!

[jokin]

People who insist on measuring management's commitment solely in terms of payroll or wins frustrate me.

 

People who insist that there are other ways to measure success besides actually achieving, you know, "success", frustrates me.

[jokin]

That's what Mastorontonioinio was for. He got hurt. Ramirez was the third choice. Three deep seems like a fair effort when the alternative is paying money for players like Borbon. The one decision that bears a little second-guessing is not protecting Benson better, but he played his way out on to the thin ice.

 

I guess I don't understand why you go out of your way to clutter the 40 man roster with this debris instead of biting the bullet for a week or two in a lost season. There are plenty of ways to get by while your guys get healthy, but at least when I watch Hicks I'm seeing an investment in the future of the team. People who insist on measuring management's commitment solely in terms of payroll or wins frustrate me.

 

Mastro has never been a major league starting outfielder. Not a viable every-day alternative.

 

Ramirez has never been a major league anything. Not a viable alternative for anything, except translating.

 

Having a legitimate back-up that no one will shed a tear over if he gets cut, hurt or doesn't play is not "roster clutter", it's called insurance.

[Cris E]

People who insist that there are other ways to measure success besides actually achieving, you know, "success" frustrate me.

 

So there are no intermediate steps, just pain followed by the 1991 WS? That's not how things work. The Dodgers are trying to win that way this year and it usually fails.

 

Mastro and Ramirez were the insurance, not regulars. You keep complaining about lack of insurance and backups and "every-day alternatives" and then waving away the existence of the Twins backup CFs. I'm not sure what you want to hear. I'm sure Terry Ryan is sorry Benson sucked and Hicks got hurt at the same time Mastro got hurt at the same time Ramierez got hurt. What are you hoping for, a fourth CF on the roster? This is a team feeling its way back to contention and they're going to churn through some bodies. At times the roster is going to look a little rough but they'll make a few short term shortcuts to stay focused on the future. Three wins mean nothing this year compared to keeping as many youngsters in the organization as possible while trying to figure out who can play. You really think they should have tried to pass good players thru waivers to keep Borbon on the 40 man this spring? Really?

[jokin]

People who insist that there are other ways to measure success besides actually achieving, you know, "success" frustrate me.

 

So there are no intermediate steps, just pain followed by the 1991 WS? That's not how things work. The Dodgers are trying to win that way this year and it usually fails.

Mastro and Ramirez were the insurance, not regulars. You keep complaining about lack of insurance and backups and "every-day alternatives" and then waving away the existence of the Twins backup CFs. I'm not sure what you want to hear. I'm sure Terry Ryan is sorry Benson sucked and Hicks got hurt at the same time Mastro got hurt at the same time Ramierez got hurt. What are you hoping for, a fourth CF on the roster? This is a team feeling its way back to contention and they're going to churn through some bodies. At times the roster is going to look a little rough but they'll make a few short term shortcuts to stay focused on the future. Three wins mean nothing this year compared to keeping as many youngsters in the organization as possible while trying to figure out who can play. You really think they should have tried to pass good players thru waivers to keep Borbon on the 40 man this spring? Really?

 

If Mastro and Ramirez were the insurance policies, they should sue their insurance agents.

I was hoping for a competent 4th OF with previous major league starting experience. That was really too much to ask on an active-player payroll of ~$75M?

 

"Feeling your way back to contention" after 2 disastrous years, and still carrying high dollar players on the payroll like Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Perkins makes utterly no sense whatsoever.

 

And yes, I think they should have tried to pass "bad players" through waivers to keep Borbon on the roster this spring. "Really". (Oh, wait, that's right..... It turns out they have already cut some of the detritus off the 40 man, and ironically, there's still a lot of gristle to hack away at until they actually reach the "good players" on the 40-man).

[Guest USAFChief]

If Mastro and Ramirez were the insurance policies, they should sue their insurance agents.

I was hoping for a competent 4th OF with previous major league starting experience. That was really too much to ask on an active-player payroll of ~$75M?

 

"Feeling your way back to contention" after 2 disastrous years, and still carrying high dollar players on the payroll like Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Perkins makes utterly no sense whatsoever.

 

And yes, I think they should have tried to pass "bad players" through waivers to keep Borbon on the roster this spring. "Really". (Oh, wait, that's right..... It turns out they have already cut some of the detritus off the 40 man, and ironically, there's still a lot of gristle to hack away at until they actually reach the "good players" on the 40-man).

What, exactly, is the difference between Thomas, Mastro, and Borbon? As near as I can tell, they're pretty much the same player.

 

Or is it your contention the Twins should have had all three of them available, just in case?

[Kwak]

His contention is to have a running conversation.

[old nurse]

His contention is to have a running conversation.

and the last post in the thread.