What to Watch For with Pablo López’s Decreasing Velocity

[Cody Christie]

Pitching injuries have been a conversation across baseball in 2024. After some discouraging signs in Pablo López's last start, the Twins hope their ace can get back on track.

Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

On Tuesday, Pablo López took the mound against the lowly Chicago White Sox in what should have been an overpowering match-up. Instead, López struggled through four innings by allowing three runs on four hits with two walks. He struck out six and earned a no-decision, but there were other concerns with his performance. His final pitch in the fourth inning registered at under 92 mph, which was his slowest fastball since joining the Twins. Both Rocco Baldelli and López said he is physically fine with López blaming the fourth-inning issues on mentality and conviction issues. Still, it will be something for the team to track in future starts. 

López had previously dealt with injuries before being acquired by the Twins. During the 2019 season, a shoulder injury caused him to miss over two months. He returned in August but posted a 7.01 ERA with opponents combining for a .940 OPS against him. In 2021, a rotator cuff injury limited him to one start after July 11th. He pitched just over 100 innings with a 3.07 ERA and 10.1 K/9, but nearly all his innings were in the first half. In the 2022 season, López pitched 180 innings, a career-high at the time. He had a minor wrist issue during the season, but it wasn’t enough for him to miss significant time. Every pitcher has an injury history, so this information should not be surprising.

Since joining the Twins, López has changed his workout regime during the offseason, including stops at Driveline, the baseball pitching factory utilized by multiple Minnesota pitchers. The 2023 campaign was the best of his career, as he posted a 3.66 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 234 strikeouts in 194 innings. He became a first-time All-Star and finished in the top-10 for the AL Cy Young. López ranked in the AL’s top-10 in WHIP, BB/9, K/9, IP, K, GS, and CG. He redefined his career with the addition of a sweeper and developed into one of baseball’s best pitchers.  

Fans can keep an eye on a few different things when López takes the mound in Los Angeles. His fastball velocity has averaged 94.5 mph this season, so another drop into the low 90s would be concerning. That pitch has been so good for him that his fastball run value ranks in the 89th percentile so far in 2024. Also, fans can track how regularly he is using his four-seamer. Last season, he used his fastball 34.5% of the time, but that percentage has increased to 44.8%. Batters struggle to make consistent contact versus that pitch with a .103 BA and a .205 SLG. He’s only allowed four hits (two extra-base hits) versus his fastball, throwing it nearly 200 times. 

López’s other pitches also play off his fastball, including his much-improved sweeper. He uses the pitch more regularly, and the peripheral numbers show it is getting more swings and misses. His Whiff% (37.8) has risen, and he has gotten eight strikeouts in 21 at-bats ending on the pitch. Opponents have a .476 SLG against it, but the xSLG is over 160 points lower. His changeup, curveball, and sinker have all been used less regularly this season, with his sinker usage dropping from 10.6% last season to 4.3% in 2024. He could turn to his sweeper more regularly if his fastball lacks its normal velocity, or his other offspeed offerings might get more use. 

The Twins and López don’t seem too worried about his velocity drop in his last start, but plenty of eyes will be on the radar gun in LA. Hopefully, it was a one-start blip, and López can return to being one of the league’s best pitchers. 

Should fans be worried about his velocity drop? What will you be watching in his next couple of starts? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Thebigalguy]

A consistent velocity drop would be concerning, that's for sure. Not much of a sample, though. Let's see what he looks like today before we start worrying. Can't afford to have another starter go down, can we, especially now that the bats seem to be coming alive? Still, look at Ober's first start this year and what he's done since. That start was a blip. Could be the same for Lopez, who might have taken the White Sox too lightly, given their record this year. I expect an offensive letdown today after the 16 runs yesterday, so let's hope he has good stuff. 

[Doctor Gast]

I believe that it was cold his last start. For someone who's not used to it, it could be a factor. It's still something to be concerned about & keep track of.

[CRF]

Velo looks ok today. I believe he's fine.

[HrbieFan]

16 hours ago, CRF said:

Velo looks ok today. I believe he's fine.

He looked fine until the 5th and then he got jumped hard