Dream the Dream - Mike Trout

[Fire Dan Gladden]

ESPN had an interesting article today about what a trade between the Phillies and Angels for Mike Trout could look like.  That article can be found here:

Why the Phillies should trade for Mike Trout

Trout's contract, age, and injury history play a big part in this type of deal, but the proposal offered by the Phillies seems very light considering you would be getting a still very effective Mike Trout.  Living in the dream world, assuming the Twins want Trout and Trout is willing to come to Minnesota, let's build an offer that might be acceptable.

The big factor would probably be how much salary the Twins would be willing to take on.  We know the Twins have discussed lowering salary, but I am tend to believe they will be somewhat close to last year.  Trout is owed $248m over the next 7 years, about $35.5m per season.  I don't think the Twins would assume that much salary, so they would have to offset some of it with prospect talent.  Here is what I think it would take:

Twins receive:
Mike Trout
$12m per season ($84m total)

Angels receive:
Max Kepler
Brooks Lee
David Festa
Simeon Woods Richardson
Matt Canterino

Kepler provides a quality short-term OF replacement.  The Angels get two strong prospects and two decent-but-questionable prospects.  The prospect quality helps to offset the salary.

I am in the middle on this... Granted Buxton or Trout would have to move to a corner OF spot, but Trout brings a huge jumpstart to the offense.  Having Trout also puts the Twins in a stronger national spotlight position.

Would you make this trade?  Would you look at a different offer?  Have at it...

[Linus]

That click you heard is the Angels hanging up the phone. Part of the problem is the Twins just don’t have enough minor league talent to pull off a trade like this. 

[chpettit19]

I can't read the article so I'm not sure what the package they suggested there was. 

If we're going to play the hypothetical "Angels are starting a rebuild so they're going to move Trout" game I think Kepler probably isn't a piece they'd want back as they likely can't spin him into much at the deadline so they'd probably prefer a full package of prospects. From there the question is what can the Twins offer in comparison to other teams, and how much are teams willing to pay for an "aging," oft-injured, expensive Trout.

I do think his contract lowers the prospect package they get if they don't eat a significant chunk. I'd guess they'd eat a chunk, and the amount would depend on what the prospect return would be. So its a little hard to get too specific, but I'd think a package likely starts with 2 of Lee, Jenkins, or ERod and the rest depends on what the Angels kick in for $. Probably looking at another top 10 system prospect (likely an arm) plus another 15-25 system type guy (again, likely an arm). I think that kind of package would be competitive compared to others, but not sure it'd be the winner.

Just Trout the player is worth more than any team could/would ever give up. But that contract, and his recent injuries, do change the calculus, and makes it pretty difficult to truly judge what he'd fetch in return.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

54 minutes ago, Linus said:

That click you heard is the Angels hanging up the phone. Part of the problem is the Twins just don’t have enough minor league talent to pull off a trade like this. 

I respectfully disagree.  The Twins have prospect depth and quality, especially in the infield.  The biggest in a trade like this is dollars.  If the Twins would need to eat the entire contract, the prospect package would be smaller think.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I can't read the article so I'm not sure what the package they suggested there was. 

If we're going to play the hypothetical "Angels are starting a rebuild so they're going to move Trout" game I think Kepler probably isn't a piece they'd want back as they likely can't spin him into much at the deadline so they'd probably prefer a full package of prospects. From there the question is what can the Twins offer in comparison to other teams, and how much are teams willing to pay for an "aging," oft-injured, expensive Trout.

I do think his contract lowers the prospect package they get if they don't eat a significant chunk. I'd guess they'd eat a chunk, and the amount would depend on what the prospect return would be. So its a little hard to get too specific, but I'd think a package likely starts with 2 of Lee, Jenkins, or ERod and the rest depends on what the Angels kick in for $. Probably looking at another top 10 system prospect (likely an arm) plus another 15-25 system type guy (again, likely an arm). I think that kind of package would be competitive compared to others, but not sure it'd be the winner.

Just Trout the player is worth more than any team could/would ever give up. But that contract, and his recent injuries, do change the calculus, and makes it pretty difficult to truly judge what he'd fetch in return.

I agree that Trout is probably only behind Ohtani in true value.  We are talking about off-field as well as on.  What makes it somewhat doable is the injury risk you assume with Trout on top of the monster contract he has attached to him.  There is a price for every player...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I can't read the article so I'm not sure what the package they suggested there was. 

If we're going to play the hypothetical "Angels are starting a rebuild so they're going to move Trout" game I think Kepler probably isn't a piece they'd want back as they likely can't spin him into much at the deadline so they'd probably prefer a full package of prospects. From there the question is what can the Twins offer in comparison to other teams, and how much are teams willing to pay for an "aging," oft-injured, expensive Trout.

I do think his contract lowers the prospect package they get if they don't eat a significant chunk. I'd guess they'd eat a chunk, and the amount would depend on what the prospect return would be. So its a little hard to get too specific, but I'd think a package likely starts with 2 of Lee, Jenkins, or ERod and the rest depends on what the Angels kick in for $. Probably looking at another top 10 system prospect (likely an arm) plus another 15-25 system type guy (again, likely an arm). I think that kind of package would be competitive compared to others, but not sure it'd be the winner.

Just Trout the player is worth more than any team could/would ever give up. But that contract, and his recent injuries, do change the calculus, and makes it pretty difficult to truly judge what he'd fetch in return.

I just realized this is an ESPN+ article...

Here is the Phillies package proposed:

Castellanos, outfield prospect Justin Crawford, pitching prospect Griff McGarry and $5 million in cash each year from 2024 to 2026 

[Linus]

5 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I respectfully disagree.  The Twins have prospect depth and quality, especially in the infield.  The biggest in a trade like this is dollars.  If the Twins would need to eat the entire contract, the prospect package would be smaller think.

I think we are pretty far off on this. I value Brooks Lee highly. A year of Kepler is worth something. SWR was not good and Canterino is a complete unknown. To me Festa is not a dominant pitching prospect which isn’t a popular opinion on these boards. When healthy Trout is a top 5 player in the league. 

[Parfigliano]

On 11/17/2023 at 3:46 PM, Linus said:

I think we are pretty far off on this. I value Brooks Lee highly. A year of Kepler is worth something. SWR was not good and Canterino is a complete unknown. To me Festa is not a dominant pitching prospect which isn’t a popular opinion on these boards. When healthy Trout is a top 5 player in the league. 

"When healthy" carrying a lot of weight in that sentence.