In Defense of Emilio Pagan

[IaBeanCounter]

On 6/27 I posted that I didn't think Pagan could step to fill the void of Stewart going on IL.  He has appeared in 12 games since (7 against Balt & Sea: 5 against KC, OAK and CWS).  He is 2-0 (one win coming in Seattle on the scorer's opinion) 2 holds and 1 BS.  If he hadn't got the scorer's awarded win he would have gotten another hold.  So in games on the line he has an 80% success rate.   He has allowed 2 of 6 inherited runners to score (67% strand rate) this includes coming into a bases loaded situation in Baltimore after a Duran blowup and getting the last out to give the Twins a chance to win down one.  They didn't.  His ERA over 11 innings is 1.64.

For the season he has allowed 8 of 22 inherited runners and  strand rate of 64% while Jax for the season has allowed 4 of 6 inherited runners to score (33% strand rate).

Do I feel confident when Pagan comes in?  Absolutely not!  But I believe that he has shown to be an above average reliever and has responded well to the increased responsibility.  I am willing to admit that I was wrong about Pagan having the ability to step it up.  Like it or not the Twins need Pagan to continue his recent performance.  JMHO

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

List the facts! You said it yourself, you could rattle off 10 positives categories that aren't being properly weighted. If you've got a glut of info that says Pagan is more than a low leverage, clean inning guy I'm all ears!

You're going to complain about arguments being skirted or shifted, but toss Jax out as a comp? Hmmm.

Whataboutism aside, yep, Jax was brutal for about a month but there was certainly plenty of hand wringing over his performance. He's been stellar since mid May, and he's pitching late innings/high leverage, i.e. he's an actual weapon, hence he's not viewed similarly to Pagan. 

There's no "yeah but," here. The case against Pagan is straight forward; he can't handle leverage, he doesn't pitch well when inheriting runners, the need to shield him has a domino effect, and his role is best suited for guys auditioning. Do you have an actual rebuttal to any of that, or is this a never ending tap dance? 

Again, this is what I am talking about.  You aren't reading what I am typing.

The positive items were already listed in the article.

I said when Jax was bad, there was not the vitriol that Pagan receives.  The comments on Pagan are more emotional and less based on his performance.

Continuing this thread is fruitless when you don't even read or consider the other pieces.  

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

13 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

The next time Duran blows a game, you better be out here screaming from the rooftops.

If a guy like Jorge Alcala or Brent Headrick were putting up the same performances as Emilio Pagan and had the same stat line, he would not receive 1/10th the vitriol and disgust that Pagan receives. Every reliever, even Duran, is going to blow games. If you can pitch well on days when you don't blow up and reduce the number of blow-ups, you'll add value to your team, which is exactly what Pagan has done for the Twins. You can bitch and moan about blown losses, but they happen; it's part of the sport. If you want to watch baseball where no one makes mistakes, you can play MLB The Show and turn off the system whenever you give up a run.

Woah!  I'm just a smarta$$ Twins fan commenting on your post.  Relax.

[Cris E]

The other thing to consider is that managers don't get to choose pitchers from a clean slate each game. They have to play the guys that are available, balancing game situations against players' health and effectiveness on a daily basis. You don't think Rocco and Maki know this stuff? They want to put him in with no one on to try to get the best Pagan every time out, but sometimes things go badly wrong.  He got tossed in to clean up after Duran in BAL, he got jammed in after Moran's explosion to stop the bleeding, and results varied.

Gladden is right: some of you guys just aren't rational when it comes to Pagan. Jax has two blown saves this week fer crying out loud. Accept the volatile nature of relievers and be at peace. Emilio is not the problem you're making him out to be.

[T.O.]

On 7/25/2023 at 12:23 PM, AceWrigley said:

Ummm ... well ... ok. If I'm Rocco I still get the yips when I'm pushing the Pagan bullpen button.

AND QUOTE 2
He has had 3 clunkers in 40 appearances (43.1IP).  In the other 37 he has given up a total of 4 ER.

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My head says one thing, my gut says another.

 

[KirbyDome89]

22 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Again, this is what I am talking about.  You aren't reading what I am typing.

The positive items were already listed in the article.

I said when Jax was bad, there was not the vitriol that Pagan receives.  The comments on Pagan are more emotional and less based on his performance.

Continuing this thread is fruitless when you don't even read or consider the other pieces.  

No I'm reading your posts. That's why I'm asking you to list all these positive contributions, or "other pieces," that aren't getting the credit they deserve. You've already backed down from your claim you could throw out 10, and now you're just defaulting to what the OP listed. Appearances and IPs? Stop. His (negative) WPA is a good thing? Do you realize that the LI (another listed positive) tells us exactly what I previously said? He's pitching almost exclusively in low leverage. 

Anybody using data to make a case against Pagan is a "hater," but it's everybody else who is being emotional? Ok....

I agree, this is fruitless. You've backed yourself into a corner and I guess the last card to play is victimhood.