Article: Twins 3, Tigers 4: The Value of Each Play

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1648-Twins-3-Tigers-4-The-Value-of-Each-Play

[snepp]

If anyone else is interested in win probability stuff, Fangraphs provides all the dirty work for every game in near real time, as well as providing some glossary info and links to articles discussing it.

 

 

Here's the link to last night's game.

[Wheresatom]

Nice write up. This Win Probability stat is kind of new to me but very interesting. I might keep an eye on the fangraphs page for a game or two for some extra info.

[savvyspy]

This way of looking at games seems to place a ton of value on power hitting. If accurate, the front office insistence for putting together a roster that consistently finishes in the Bottom 5 in HRs seems counterproductive to assembling a winning team.

[sorney]

This way of looking at games seems to place a ton of value on power hitting. If accurate, the front office insistence for putting together a roster that consistently finishes in the Bottom 5 in HRs seems counterproductive to assembling a winning team.

 

 

Power hitting SHOULD be valued as it's the quickest way to put runs on the board...last I checked, more runs scored generally means more wins. What I don't get, is the game has changed from the 70's/80's way of playing ball, and the Twins just now are slowly starting to move away from that. What has taken them so long?!?! Oh well, more of a half hearted rant while enjoying a super surprising 500 team for as long as possible.

[jimbo92107]

From this chart I gather that what the Twins really need is guys that make lots of great defensive plays and hit lots of home runs, especially late in games.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Very interesting. Like all stats, of course, it has to be taken inside a larger context.

 

According to fangraphs, Scherzer had a WPA last night of 0.88; Smyly had one of .193. Yet somehow I still think Scherzer added more to the Tigers win than Smyly. It also gives Pelfrey the lion's share of responsibility for the defeat, yet there were plenty of key Twins bats that were completely silent and could have made a significant difference.

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, I don't think WPA is a good statistical thing for pitchers.

[snepp]

It also gives Pelfrey the lion's share of responsibility for the defeat, yet there were plenty of key Twins bats that were completely silent and could have made a significant difference.

 

Huh?

 

Pelfrey was credited with -.323 WPA

 

The hitters were credited with -.318 WPA

 

 

That's effectively identical responsibility for the loss.

[ThejacKmp]

Power hitting SHOULD be valued as it's the quickest way to put runs on the board...last I checked, more runs scored generally means more wins. What I don't get, is the game has changed from the 70's/80's way of playing ball, and the Twins just now are slowly starting to move away from that. What has taken them so long?!?! Oh well, more of a half hearted rant while enjoying a super surprising 500 team for as long as possible.

 

Well this is where the author's criticism of not taking into account who is up (and up after that) comes into play. Though Joe Mauer doesn't hit a lot of homeruns, I think most Twins fans would love to see him up with guys on 1st and 2nd in a two run game. He's not likely to hit a three run bomb but he's very likely to put the next batter in an advantageous position.

 

It's not necessarily that you should get the 9 best home run hitters in your lineup - though that seems fun you'd have a lot of solo HR driven games. The tool seems like it needs some help - for example, the Tigers win % should probably have been higher given who was coming up. Having a higher OBP guy followed by their big bats is better than having Don Kelly coming up.

[ashbury]

It also gives Pelfrey the lion's share of responsibility for the defeat

 

In Aesop's story, the lion decided how much everyone's share was. Usually it would be 100% for himself, but here I think he'd be generous and take zero.