Twin Decision: Correa and Pena

[Game7-91]

This offseason, the Twins and Astros made radically different decisions about roster development and payroll distribution.

Perhaps none was more consequential, at least for Twins, than Houston releasing into UFA status All-Star Carlos Correa in favor of starting 24 year rookie Jeremy Pena at SS for 700K rookie scale pay, and the Twins choosing to commit at least 35M and possibly 70M or 105M  for 1-3 years of Correa, while choosing to keep Royce Lewis in AAA to start the regular season. See the Pena/ Correa comp chart attached below.

The Astros committed 32% of their payroll to the pitching staff, on a total adjusted payroll of 173M (includes injuries and deferred monies). The Twins settled on 23% commitment to the pitching staff, on an adjusted payroll of 139M (including injuries and deferred monies).

The comparative results as the dog days of August approach suggest Houston is seeing positive comparative production from their SS position at a fraction of the cost the Twins have committed, savings which are being rolled into protecting the superior quality of the pitching staff. 

The roster and payroll management philosophies of these two organizations could not seem to be farther apart.

Houston's record sits at 66-35 (+31), Twins at 52-47 (+5), leaving the Twins -14.5 games compared to Houston.  

Am I being unfair comparing payrolls with a 20% variance?

Am I wrong to say the Twins ownership and FO need to adjust their roster construction and payroll distribution philosophies going forward?

 

Jeremy Pena/Carlos Correa 2022 Batting Stats

 

Chart Key:

Line 1: Games–AB-R-H-2B-3B-HR-RBI’s-SB-CS-BB-K-HBP

Line 2: Sac Bunts–SF- IBB-GIDP-TB-PA-XBH-1B-OPS- Secondary Avg

Line 3: Iso Power-Bapip-Walk Per-K Per- K to BB-AB per HR

J Pena 2022         Houston Astros     AL     MLB  hou   --       --       ss     

 

79      297    43      77      11      1        15      38      6        1        17      79      5

 

4        0        0        3        135    323    27      50      .259   .310   .455   .765   .269

 

.195   .305   5.26   24.46 4.65   19.80  

 

WAR 2022: 3.3              Age: 24                 

Contract: $700K, team control through 2028

_________________________________________________________________________________

C Correa 2022      Minnesota Twins  AL     MLB  min   --       --       ss     

 

75      291    41      79      14      0        12      34      0        0        31      68      1       

 

2        0        0        12      129    325    26      53      .271   .344   .443   .787   .278  

 

.172   .318   9.54   20.92 2.19   24.25

 

WAR 2022; 2.4               Age: 27                

Contract: 1 yr/35M, player options 2023/24 up to 3 yrs/105M

 

 

Source: The Baseball Cube

 

Pena Correa Comp.docx

 

 

[ashbury]

Your analysis raises the question that comes to my mind every so often.  Allocating money to cover all organizational needs is a concern in any business.  What if I could ask the top guy (Chief of Baseball Operations, or whatever the job title) at each team, "does your organization use Linear Programming to maximize the use of your roster payroll budget?"  I'd expect a broad range of the 30 answers:

1. What is Linear Programming?  We do have computers, if that's what you're asking.
2. No.  I heard about it in Quant class when I was getting my MBA though.
3. My analytics team looked into it once but couldn't get it to give realistic guidance.
4. We use it or methods like it at times.  So do the Finance guys.  Forecasting matters more.
5. Hush!  Keep your voice down.  We use it and it's key.

Terry Ryan would have answered 1.  I fear Falvey would say 2 or 3.  I have a feeling that teams like the Astros will say 4 or 5.

 

[Linus]

I’m not sure this is a fair comparison. Houston knew Peña was ready and healthy. The Twins had no idea what Lewis would bring to the table. To bet on that would have been risky. 
 

I agree with the overarching point: if you don’t invest salary or draft capital in pitching you shouldn’t be surprised when your pitching sucks.