Kirby's "Kirse": Introducing One Explanation for Three Decades of Sports Futility (and counting)

[alexlegge]

 

EXAMINING MISFORTUNES

I recently revisited some of the depressing statistics regarding Minnesota big four sports teams' futility over the past 30 years.

A couple of the numbers jumped out at me. Namely, when accounting for league sizes, etc. the probability on any given year of no MN sports team winning a championship since the 1991 WS, is approximately 87%. But the probability of no MN big four sports team even *appearing * in a championship game during that time is substantially lower,  approximately 0.91%. That's before accounting for relatively large media market size (ironically among the big four sports the smallest media market is Green Bay).

Looking at those data points, admittedly calculated somewhat inaccurately, I was struck by the numbers 87 and 91, which of course are meaningful for MN sports fans.

Things quickly get more depressing if you're a Twins fan. Indeed, there seems to be a pattern of championship futility that follows the Twins and the Vikings franchises in particular, and seems to be STRONGLY connected to the centerfield Metrodome territory.

What I propose based on the subsequent data points, is "strong" evidence in support for what I call The Kirse of Kirby. You may say, curses don't exist. Look at the Cubs and Red Sox, they both proved that. However, do *kirses* exist?? Let me attempt to convince you.

A TERRIFYING REALIZATION

What is the KIrse of Kirby? An anti-championship hex that affects Minnesota sports teams and players, current and past, based on their relationship to Kirby Puckett and the Metrodome centerfield area. The curse may have started in 1991, or it may have  started with Kirby's freak accident, getting hit in the eye. Regardless, part of his baseball soul left him when he retired, a more demonic and anti-Minnesota baseball presence and continued to wreak havoc after he passed away. Those who were affected most notably were teams, players and fans, who have unwittingly invaded Kirby's territory in CF, especially during gameplay. Kirby's soul was upset that he had to retire. And since his death, the baseball gods have been making him pay penance for his baseball sins (see below).

The curse applies to all Minnesota sports teams, but most significantly the Vikings and Twins, both of whom played games in the Metrodome and used that part of the field during gameplay. Many Twin Cities fans used that part of the Metrodome in the post-Puckett era, which is why the Kirse extends to their hometown teams. The Lynx weren't even founded until after Kirby's career - plus, we all know that Kirby wasn't exactly thoughtful when it came to women. So they haven't been affected. Certainly, however, the Gophers, who played in the Metrodome, have been. 

Again, the curse is most highly specific to the CF territory at the Metrodome, and those who would've frequented that area during the post-Kirby years. Here are the oddly-consistent, and legitimately creepy specific rules:

- The Kirse of Kirby affects mostly championship probability for those impacted. But it also impacts the ways in which that probability decreases. Teams and moments most closely related to Kirby's CF territory have been devastated by this repeatedly. Following Kirby's death in spring 2006, things seemed to get much worse for the Twins *and* for any Twins player who ever manned CF at the dome. 

- Because it affects championship probability, the Kirse definitely applies more and more to teams and players as they progress through the playoffs en route to the championship - er, the inevitable heartbreak before reaching the championship game, High probability moments have the potential to be very strongly impacted. Because things really only get meaningful during the postseason, it's the only time that teams are affected. So don't blame the Kirse for the Timberwolves failure to make the playoffs. Just for their inability to win anything meaningful when they've infrequently made it. 

- By far the most notable moment single play involved Kirby's territory and a ton of championship probability but NOT the Twins! Indeed, this moment involved a team on the brink of advancing to the championship and a play that occupied a critical part of Kirby's CF territory - namely left-center field, near the landing spot of his Game 6 homer. As you may already have guessed, I'm speaking of Gary Anderson's missed field goal in the 1998 NFC championship, which likely traversed over area which was frequented by Kirby and undoubtedly required use of that portion of the outfield during play.

 

- Also mysterious is that the Kirse of Kirby seems to follow athletes that ever played in the centerfield region of the Metrodome; Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Shannon Stewart, Jason Kubel, Jacque Jones, Shane Mack, Marty Cordova, and most notably Torii Hunter have played in a cumulative total of zero World Series games. Neither has Ben Revere nor Aaron Hicks, who never played in that part of CF at the dome during the regular season though who I suspect did play there in spring training/exhibition games. If nothing else, they are also part of the Twins classic 'lineage' of centerfielders following Kirby. Very few notable ex-Vikings from the Metrodome era have won a championship, and in many cases have been part of notable championship losses - in particular Randy Moss who was part of the Patriots' perfect season that resulted in Super Bowl misery. Did any Twin play CF in the dome since 1995 and go onto win a World Series at any point after occupying Kirby's territory? I've found only two that ever even played in a World Series game. They both lost and performed abysmally. One was Otis Nixon, who played for the Twins in 1998, then the Braves in 1999. The baseball gods apparently preferred to penalize Kirby over rewarding the Braves (one championship was enough). Naturally, the only other Twin who ever would've manned metrodome CF and made the WS was Michael Cuddyer. And he was a magician! He played in only one World Series game as part of the Mets' 2015 losing effort. Here's his batting line that game: 3 plate appearances, 3 strikeouts. 

- Conversely,  *avoidance* of the Metrodome's centerfield region seems to have been an excellent strategy, both spatially and temporally: among the list of ex-Twins who have experienced playoff success with seemingly little effort are guys who would never have had to play in that part of the field. The most successful has been David Ortiz, obviously. But several dome-era Twins who never would have been in CF won the WS rather quickly and/or easily after departing the Twins - Jack Morris, Kyle Lohse, AJ Pierzynski, and Doug Mientkiewicz, just to name a few. Many other Twins have played exclusively in the post-Dome era.

 

- Players who were predominantly middle-infielders at the Metrodome seem to have a mixed-bag of postseason success, as one might expect given the above two bullet points (they had to back up into CF to catch a lot of pop-ups, but probably were able to dance around it a bit). As one might expect, the Kurse has applied more to shortstops than second basemen. Jason Bartlett appeared in the Rays' 2008 WS loss and performed abysmally. Christian Guzman never played in a World Series game. Chuck Knoblauch, in contrast, went onto win several rings with the Yankees, and Nick Punto won with Cardinals in 2011. 

 

- Performance isn't all about winning and losing either - note that regardless of outcome, it has generally been those who avoided Kirby's territory who have had success with the Twins in the playoffs. Dozier and Rosario both hit homers in the wild card game against the Yankees. Mauer and Santana performed strongly in the postseason for the Twins. And the last playoff series they actually won was because of huge ninth inning hits from AJ Pierzynski and David Ortiz. 

 

- The Twins have lost 18  consecutive playoff games, though recall that they actually won Game 1 of the ALDS back in 2004, the same year the streak started. Since Kirby passed away in spring 2006: 15 baseball seasons, 15 postseason losses, 0 postseason wins. Indeed, the very first ball hit to a Twin in centerfield during postseason play after Kirby's death resulted in a freakish misplay by Torii Hunter and an inside-the-park home run by Ray Durham. Yikes.

 

 

WHY CAN WE NOT BE SPARED???

Why the Kirse of Kirby? What cruel world would do this to such a beloved player? Why would the sports gods need to punish Minnesota? And why does it have anything to do with Kirby Puckett in particular? What were Kirby's 'baseball sins?' 2 possible reasons here, neither of which has been proven publicly but neither of which is wholly unlikely either:

- Reason 1: The baseball gods needed to get back at the Twins for unfairly disadvantaging opposing World Series teams during '87 and '91 via selected use of the ballpark fan systems. This would explain why the 'Kirse' is somewhat specific to the Metrodome. But why should it only affect Kirby? Kirby hit the biggest home run in either of those two world series, and he hit it out to centerfield territory (left-center). Let's not forget how he robbed Ron Gant of a double by jumping up against that silly plexiglass (which I believe was only present during the postseason).

- Reason 2: Seriously, though. Kent Hrbek hit a Grand Slam in '87 and wouldn't have been caught dead in CF. So why Kirby so specifically? This is the more painful one, and perhaps the more weighty from the baseball gods' perspective: he may be the only Hall of Famer who used steroids, or at least the Hall of Famer whose success was most dependent on steroids. Jose Canseco has stated that there are juicers in the Hall of Fame, and if he's to be believed (which he probably should be - he has been accurate about most of this) then unfortunately Kirby would fit the profile disturbingly well - a guy whose body and power changed early in his career at the peak of the steroid era. And it makes sense that nobody has come public  with this. A dead guy who was beloved amongst his peers is not someone likely to be accused in that kind of forum. Yet based on Kirby's fall from grace, we can extrapolate that he wasn't always the most ethically sound man. I actually suspect he was using steroids for much of his career, including both years worth of Twins Championships. He was one of those guys that started off slim and fast, then got more jacked and added power somewhat suddenly. And I don't say this lightly, since I grew up idolizing him. I even owned his children's book "Be The Best You Can Be." And to be frank, if we're taking that title quite literally, a major leaguer in the 80s and 90s couldn't really be the best he could be without some frequent injections of the clear. Sad but true.

Also notable is the Twins failure to acknowledge Kirby's darker moments that became apparent after his retirement. To some extent, his early death might've made it easer to ignore these as a community. Indeed, the Twins have been essentially silent about it for years, instead putting up statues of him. I don't completely disagree with this approach, but it certainly leaves something to be desired if we're going for emotional honesty. Maybe coming to terms with that, on an emotional and community-wide level, is a necessary part of lifting the Kirse and bringing the trophy to Target Field. Regardless of whether Kirby ever laid a finger on a steroid, we do know that his legacy is oddly less complex publicly than it probably should be. I don't say this to demonize him. Kirby came from nothing, lived a whirlwind of a dream life which was cut short, perhaps before he was fully able to process his misgivings. He made mistakes, and he should be remembered as a flawed human, but also a human who brought millions of people joy. Perhaps the day this mindset is prevalent across the Twin Cities, our next period of sports dominance will be ushered in.

 

 

BUT REALLY - HOW ARE WE SUPPOSED TO BREAK THE KIRSE

Other than the above, don't ask me. I'm just speculating based on known data points. I don't know what the baseball gods need, if anything. Hopefully fewer than 108 seasons. Goat meat? Some corollary to a Bartman or Buckner moment? Maybe the next Twins World Series victory needs to feature an outfield without any homegrown talent? The Buxtons of the world are too close to Kirby's centerfield lineage. Or maybe it'll just be a 34 year drought in honor of Kirby? That wouldn't be so bad. We can only hope. What about MLS? And the Falvine administration - heck, maybe the Kirse has already been broken, we just genuinely don't have the right talent in place. Maybe you don't believe in kirses, or curses, or any of this mumbo-jumbo, just in the love of the game. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

7 hours ago, alexlegge said:

Let's not forget how he robbed Ron Gant of a double by jumping up against that silly plexiglass (which I believe was only present during the postseason).

The plexiglass was present on the Dome's left field wall at the 1985 All-Star Game -- see the 19:13 mark of this video where it is discussed:

The plexiglass was removed before the 1994 season, as mentioned at the 16 second mark of this news report of the Scott Erickson no-hitter:

Maybe the simple removal of the plexiglass caused the curse?  In 1994, I remember blaming the Twins awful pitching on the plexiglass removal.

[alexlegge]

Ha! Yeah, "Curse of the Plexiglass Removal" doesn't quite have the same ring to it, but for whatever reason strikes me as something inherently Minnesota-sounding. 

[Aichiman]

Now it's not Kirby's curse; it's Calvin's.  They removed his statue, and the curse won't be lifted until it's replaced in it's rightful spot in Twin's history.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

4 hours ago, Aichiman said:

Now it's not Kirby's curse; it's Calvin's.  They removed his statue, and the curse won't be lifted until it's replaced in it's rightful spot in Twin's history.

I've got news for you: we were 0-7 in the postseason while the Griffith statue was up. (And we had already lost 9 postseason games in a row when the statue was first installed in 2010 with the opening of Target Field, and we've lost 2 since it was taken down.)