Zulgad: Dozier Has a Plan and A New Position

[drjim]

Im guessing he is refering to Rons urnning to have multipul positions per player and continued musical position game he plays .

 

To which I would respond how many times in the Gardy's tenure did he have players good enough to play every day in the infield? And during those times did he move them around constantly?

[stringer bell]

To which I would respond how many times in the Gardy's tenure did he have players good enough to play every day in the infield? And during those times did he move them around constantly?

When Hudson and Hardy were healthy, they played. That is the last time, and one of the few times when Gardy had big league regulars at second and short. Dozier should develop into a much better hitter than Florimon or Escobar. He has a moderate amount of power and will steal a few bases. Considering the lack of power at so many positions, Brian should be given the longest look as a middle infield starter. I was hoping that the team would give him another fair shot at shortstop. While he didn't play well defensively, I thought he showed enough hands, range and arm to be an adequate major league shortstop.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Dozier in 2011 - .895 OPS in Fort Myers, .885 OPS in New Britain.

His only time in AAA was last year. 200 PA, .623 OPS. OK, that was a tough year.

Decent chance he can be very productive in MLB. I'd be amazed if they don't give him every opportunity.

[TheLeviathan]

He is a marginal major league regular. It is not uncommon to struggle the first go round, the key is the adjustments he makes this offseason. It might help that he is at an easier position.

 

Yeah, that's fine and I'm not saying he can't do that. I'm just correcting the assertion some have made about Dozier that he was good defensively or offensively last year. He wasn't, he was pretty brutal. Just calling a spade a spade, not making any pronouncements about his future based on that.

[Willihammer]

Except he wasn't brutal defensively. On balance, he was neutral

[TheLeviathan]

Except he wasn't brutal defensively. On balance, he was neutral

 

Based on what? As just one example, if he had continued at the pace he established in his 83 games over the full season he would have led the entire league in errors at shortstop. What are you basing your assessment on?

[The Wise One]

We had, what, 18 or 19 different lineups in the first 20 games last year...and people were fairly healthy at that point. Wasn't out of necessity...wasn't because people were tired and needed a rest...

 

3B was unsettled, Right still unsettled as well as the middle infield because Casilla played like Casilla. So what is your point?

[Willihammer]

Based on what? As just one example, if he had continued at the pace he established in his 83 games over the full season he would have led the entire league in errors at shortstop. What are you basing your assessment on?

 

He also would have lead baseball in plays per inning if he'd stayed on his current pace.

[TheLeviathan]

He also would have lead baseball in plays per inning if he'd stayed on his current pace.

 

And his fielding percentage would've tied Castro's for worst in the league. Again, where is a stat that puts him at "neutral"?

[snepp]

He also would have lead baseball in plays per inning if he'd stayed on his current pace.

 

I don't suppose having a putrid pitching staff that led the league in balls in play would have anything to do with that?

[Willihammer]

And his fielding percentage would've tied Castro's for worst in the league. Again, where is a stat that puts him at "neutral"?

Any zone based data puts Dozier in the middle of the pack. RZR has him 18th of 29. UZR says he's worth -1.4 runs per 150 games. DRS likes him for +1 runs. RF/9 likes him. Baseball reference likes his defense for 1/2 a win. All on his profile pages on fangraphs or baseball-reference.

[TheLeviathan]

Any zone based data puts Dozier in the middle of the pack. RZR has him 18th of 29. UZR says he's worth -1.4 runs per 150 games. DRS likes him for +1 runs. RF/9 likes him. Baseball reference likes his defense for 1/2 a win. All on his profile pages on fangraphs or baseball-reference.

 

You realize that pretty much all of these stats are best used over larger spans of data right? Even the loudest proponents of these systems acknowledge one season of data can be faulty and therefore the numbers are best used in a larger context. So you're quoting a half a season's worth of data using stats best employed within the context of multiple seasons.

 

Doesn't seem like a real sound argument to me. Fact is, the kid was committing a lot of errors, his defense was hardly neutral.

[Willihammer]

I don't suppose having a putrid pitching staff that led the league in balls in play would have anything to do with that?

 

Yes, but we're talking about 1 extra ball hit into one of his "zones" per 9 innings, compared to the players who saw the least action. Scaling everything up to 1440 innings, and holding RZR constant at .796, Dozier would make 407 of 511 "in zone" plays, 30 less than the most efficient player Ian Desmond (according to RZR). I don't know what that equate to in terms of runs. Something like 8-12 maybe.

 

I bring it up because its disingenuous to look at errors without at least weighing them against plays made. Dozier may have the high error total because the PTC staff induces a lot of ground balls his way. Or, he just may be getting to balls that players don't often get to. The eye test tells me its the former but again, we're talking pretty small scale differences in terms of efficiency at converting these balls into outs.

[Willihammer]

You realize that pretty much all of these stats are best used over larger spans of data right? Even the loudest proponents of these systems acknowledge one season of data can be faulty and therefore the numbers are best used in a larger context. So you're quoting a half a season's worth of data using stats best employed within the context of multiple seasons.

 

Doesn't seem like a real sound argument to me. Fact is, the kid was committing a lot of errors, his defense was hardly neutral.

 

RZR is a pretty straightforward metric. At least it provides some context to what plays he was or wasn't making, which fielding percentage doesn't try to do.

 

But, if you're going to site a stat like fielding percentage instead, put it in some context to the rest of the league. He was a whopping -.013 worse than average.

[TheLeviathan]

But, if you're going to site a stat like fielding percentage instead, put it in some context to the rest of the league. He was a whopping -.013 worse than average.

 

You mean like when I said he would tie Castro for worst in the entire league?

[Willihammer]

Worst was not that bad last year. Castro is an alright defender.

[TheLeviathan]

Worst was not that bad last year. Castro is an alright defender.

 

Either way he wasnt very good. I hope he can play better though.

[John Bonnes]

Either way he wasnt very good. I hope he can play better though.

 

I think he will. According to nearly everyone in the Twins organization, Dozier is a much better defender than we saw last year. Gardy's enthusiasm regarding Dozier prior to the year would seem to confirm that. (I can't imagine Gardy loving the kid if his defense wasn't solid.) It's one of the reasons I'm dubious about the Twins playing Dozier at 2B this spring. I'd rather he play SS in AAA than 2B in MLB.

[snepp]

It's one of the reasons I'm dubious about the Twins playing Dozier at 2B this spring. I'd rather he play SS in AAA than 2B in MLB.

 

Have they soured on his ability to ever be an everyday shortstop? Or is it more a matter of their apparent love of Florimon's defense?

[John Bonnes]

Have they soured on his ability to ever be an everyday shortstop? Or is it more a matter of their apparent love of Florimon's defense?

 

I don't know. I might go with option C: they're just so desperate to find solutions for their middle infield spots that they're jousting windmills.

[snepp]

Or tilting windmills, for the medieval nerds among us.