Article: CAMPAIGN: Elect Joe Mauer for #2 Hitter

[Shane Wahl]

I really cannot entertain any arguments that Mauer should be the 3 hitter. He should be the leadoff hitter, if speed and power weren't the two vital components after OBP in terms of scoring runs. So failing 1 or 3, he should bat second.

 

One alternative that I would be willing to consider would be leading off Mastro (absent Hicks) against lefties only, and then either batting Mauer leadoff against righties, or um, Parmelee or something.

 

That leads to a further point: there is a way to really maximize this lineup based on R/L splits (especially if Herrmann and/or Colabello were on the roster, but alas). Gardy won't do that, we know, but still. For instance there is just ZERO reason not to have Mastro-Mauer-Willingham in most games against lefties (and some of those times substituting Mauer out for Carroll or whomever). Plouffe could bat 5th behind Morneau in such a situation.

[jokin]

Interesting to see the Parmelee and Nick Johnson discussion. I always liked Johnson a LOT when he was healthy. But therein lies the problem.

 

Parmelee batting second is interesting to me (if Gardenhire is simply unwilling to bat Mauer there).

Of the MI options, only Carroll could conceivably be considered in the top two spots. And I really fail to see any real reason to worry about Carroll's 401 plate appearances. Isn't it $2 million? Who cares?

 

Not yours or my money, so, yeah, "who cares?" The Twins FO certainly does and carrying the risk of a 40 year old utility guy at $2M when you will have plenty of alternative options for less than $1/2M by 2014 makes it likely that Carroll will be gone. If he is having a good season at the top of the order in 2013, the Twins would be guilty of malfeasance if they didn't consider moving him for a prospect before the deadline. You're correct, the only MI they should consider for the top 2 spots should be Carroll, but that won't stop Gardy from jamming square pegs (Dozier, Flori, Esco) into round holes- remember that Gardy loved himself a lot of Lil' Nicky's first-base sliding, lousy OPS/OPB in the #2-hole in Punto's early days with the Twins.

[jokin]

P.S. I really dislike even writing Escobar and Florimon's names in that sentence. Here's hoping a waiver claim or MiLB free agent can knock one of 'em off the depth chart.

 

The Rays have 6/7 SS on their 40-man roster, with Escobar, Zobrist and Elliot Johnson listed as the top 3 on their depth chart. They also have a superstar in the making on the 40-man in Hak-Ju Lee, just 22 years old. The Twins could trade a legit prospect to get him or get one of the 2 guys the Rays might be forced to waive due to the numbers game. I really like Sean Rodriguez (age 27), or take a strong look at former top draft choice, Tim Beckham, playing AAA ball at age 22 and in severe need of a fresh start with a new organization. Blacklisted Ryan Brett would be a great get at 2B, possibly available in an inconsequential trade and maybe only a year and a half away from taking over Second Base at age 22.

[SweetOne69]

I'm not sure there's a more worthless stat to judge a batter by than GDP.

 

I agree. Based on GDP, Miguel Cabrera is the worst hitter in baseball.

 

All the GDP tells you is that the batter puts the ball in play a lot. Mauer has a low K rate and gets out 67% of the time so that means that he puts the ball in play a lot.

 

Over his career, Mauer has 3933AB, 1270H, 475K and 130 GDP. Which means he grounded into a DP 130 times out of the 2188AB where he put the ball in play to record an out. Less than 6% of his non strikeout outs resulted in a DP. What a terrible hitter.

[ThePuck]

I agree. Based on GDP, Miguel Cabrera is the worst hitter in baseball.

 

All the GDP tells you is that the batter puts the ball in play a lot. Mauer has a low K rate and gets out 67% of the time so that means that he puts the ball in play a lot.

 

Over his career, Mauer has 3933AB, 1270H, 475K and 130 GDP. Which means he grounded into a DP 130 times out of the 2188AB where he put the ball in play to record an out. Less than 6% of his non strikeout outs resulted in a DP. What a terrible hitter.

 

exactly...hitters who strike out little, make a lot of contact, and have runners on base in front of them often will occasionally GDP. Last year, Mauer GDP in less than 4% of his plate appearances.

 

In 2011, the top 5 in GDP were Pujols, AGone, Hunter, Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera.

 

I mean, seriously, you have to be grasping at straws to worry about GDP...

[jokin]

exactly...hitters who strike out little, make a lot of contact, and have runners on base in front of them often will occasionally GDP. Last year, Mauer GDP in less than 4% of his plate appearances.

 

In 2011, the top 5 in GDP were Pujols, AGone, Hunter, Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera.

 

I mean, seriously, you have to be grasping at straws to worry about GDP...

 

They don't call him "Grasping Gardy" for nothing.

[jokin]

exactly...hitters who strike out little, make a lot of contact, and have runners on base in front of them often will occasionally GDP. Last year, Mauer GDP in less than 4% of his plate appearances.

 

In 2011, the top 5 in GDP were Pujols, AGone, Hunter, Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera.

 

I mean, seriously, you have to be grasping at straws to worry about GDP...

 

GDPs as a negative stat are over-emphasised, to be sure. But on the downside and possibly somewhat concerning long-term, Mauer's GB/FB was almost as bad as his especially bad 2011 season (2.35 vs. 2.57), his GB% was 52.6% vs. his 2011 career-worst 55.4%, that and career lows the past 2 seasons in FB% indicate that he has adopted a somewhat consistently shorter and flatter plane on his swing. I would gladly trade some of those all-too-many seeing-eye carpet-crawling singles in exchange for a slightly lower OBP and more gap doubles and FBs off the wall from the #3 spot in the order. Also, his K% was a glaringly-noticeable career-high of 13.4%. That being said, minimizing his catching duties can help maintain him in producing a rich-man's version of a Wade Boggs-career set of numbers through the end of his contract (Mauer has a career OPS of .873 vs Bogg's .858 career OPS). All of this still strongly suggests that Mauer should be batting #1 or #2 ( It's arguable that Mauer should bat #1 depending on how quickly Hicks adapts to big-league pitching).

[ThePuck]

GDPs as a negative stat are over-emphasised, to be sure. But on the downside and possibly somewhat concerning long-term, Mauer's GB/FB was almost as bad as his especially bad 2011 season (2.35 vs. 2.57), his GB% was 52.6% vs. his 2011 career-worst 55.4%, that and career lows the past 2 seasons in FB% indicate that he has adopted a somewhat consistently shorter and flatter plane on his swing. I would gladly trade some of those all-too-many seeing-eye carpet-crawling singles in exchange for a slightly lower OBP and more gap doubles and FBs off the wall from the #3 spot in the order. Also, his K% was a glaringly-noticeable career-high of 13.4%. That being said, minimizing his catching duties can help maintain him in producing a rich-man's version of a Wade Boggs-career set of numbers through the end of his contract (Mauer has a career OPS of .873 vs Bogg's .858 career OPS). All of this still strongly suggests that Mauer should be batting #1 or #2 ( It's arguable that Mauer should bat #1 depending on how quickly Hicks adapts to big-league pitching).

 

He hits way too well with RISP to do that. He hits better than Willingham with RISP, even this last season in WIllingham's career year. I like Mauer in the 3 spot.

 

Mauer needs to stop listening to the masses and stop trying to pull the ball so much. Those GB rates would go back to normal.

[BrentMpls]

Not Gardy's way. While this might be his last year, and I wouldn't put it past him to finally make this change, I kinda doubt it.

[jokin]

He hits way too well with RISP to do that. He hits better than Willingham with RISP, even this last season in WIllingham's career year. I like Mauer in the 3 spot.

 

Mauer needs to stop listening to the masses and stop trying to pull the ball so much. Those GB rates would go back to normal.

 

Not much use for a high BAw/ RISP when there won't be many RISPs in the first place (and hitting W/ RISP has an element of luck, anyway), it can't be emphasised enough how bad the Twins project to be at the top of the order, I'm talking Seattle Mariners bad. BTW, I'm not one of the fans you're talking about in Mauer pulling the ball more, just take a few more cuts on a slight upward plane to get some more lift out of the infield. That's why the Red Sox were salivating about Mauer using the Green Monster like a billiard cushion.

[TheLeviathan]

Not Gardy's way. While this might be his last year, and I wouldn't put it past him to finally make this change, I kinda doubt it.

 

To be fair, there is only one manager in the entire league I believe would bat Mauer second given this lineup. (Maddon) So I'm not sure Gardy-bashing is appropriate.

[ThePuck]

Not much use for a high BAw/ RISP when there won't be many RISPs in the first place (and RISP has an element of luck, anyway), it can't be emphasised enough how bad the Twins project to be at the top of the order, I'm talking Seattle Mariners bad. BTW, I'm not one of the fans you're talking about in Mauer pulling the ball more, just take a few more cuts on a slight upward plane to get some more lift out of the infield. That's why the Red Sox were salivating about Mauer using the Green Monster like a billiard cushion.

 

Not just a high BA w/RISP, a high OBP with RISP (.500) and a pretty good slg% w/RISP as well (.514).

[jokin]

Not just a high BA w/RISP, a high OBP with RISP (.500) and a pretty good slg% w/RISP as well (.514).

 

All great, but his RISP opportunities will likely be cut by at least one-third this year.

[BrentMpls]

To be fair, there is only one manager in the entire league I believe would bat Mauer second given this lineup. (Maddon) So I'm not sure Gardy-bashing is appropriate.

 

Disagree with you there, especially if you look at the past several years where making that change would have been a good move.

 

Also, I wasn't Gardy-bashing, simply stating his (very firm) stance on the subject and unlikelihood of its change.

[ThePuck]

All great, but his RISP opportunities will likely be cut by at least one-third this year.

 

Perhaps...perhaps...but really, Span and Revere's OBPs weren't THAT good last year...were they?

[TheLeviathan]

Disagree with you there, especially if you look at the past several years where making that change would have been a good move.

 

Most managers are far more conventional or Gardy-like than I think people realize. I would suggest the vast majority of MLB managers would hit him third.

[jokin]

Perhaps...perhaps...but really, Span and Revere's OBPs weren't THAT good last year...were they?

 

Span had an OBP of .339 in the Leadoff spot. That would have been 6th overall in AL team comparisons.

Revere had an OBP of .340 in the 2-Hole. That would have been 4th overall in AL team comparisons.

 

The Twins led the AL in Stolen Bases in the 1 & 2 spots combined with 72- finishing #1 in the 2-hole and #5 at Leadoff. Their percentages were high, too, around an 80% success rate.

 

Span and Revere provided $32.6M worth of value to the Twins. Mastro turns 28 this year and has never played significantly in the majors until last year's 77 games played. Carroll turns 39 next month. Hicks has played only AA ball and historically has taken time to adjust at each level of progression. You think he will get a cup of coffee at Rochester and then come in right away and produce numbers like Span? Again, expecting a drop-off to Mariner-type numbers (.281 OBP leadoff/ .286 OBP in the 2-hole) might be too harsh a prediction as Carroll produced a .327 OBP in the #1 and #2 spots, combined. But there's no doubt there's going to be a significant drop-off, regardless, unless Hicks and Mastroianni miraculously defy the odds. Don't forget that Gardy will experiment with Dozier, Flori and Esco up at the top of the order, too.

[ThePuck]

Span had an OBP of .339 in the Leadoff spot. That would have been 6th overall in AL team comparisons.

Revere had an OBP of .340 in the 2-Hole. That would have been 4th overall in AL team comparisons.

 

The Twins led the AL in Stolen Bases in the 1 & 2 spots combined with 72- finishing #1 in the 2-hole and #5 at Leadoff. Their percentages were high, too, around an 80% success rate.

 

Span and Revere provided $32.6M worth of value to the Twins. Mastro turns 28 next year and has never played significantly in the majors until last year's 77 games played. Carroll turns 39 next month. Hicks has played only AA ball and historically has taken time to adjust at each level of progression. You think he will get a cup of coffee at Rochester and then come in right away and produce numbers like Span? Again, expecting a drop-off to Mariner-type numbers (.281 OBP leadoff/ .286 OBP in the 2-hole) might be too harsh a prediction as Carroll produced a .327 OBP in the #1 and #2 spots, combined. But there's no doubt there's going to be a significant drop-off, regardless, unless Hicks and Mastroianni miraculously defy the odds. Don't forget that Gardy will experiment with Dozier, Flori and Esco up at the top of the order, too.

 

I don't put much value in stolen bases...Bill James did a great study that showed the minimal value of the stolen base. Believe me when I tell you, I get the value of Span (was my favorite Twin behind Morny) and Revere but a lot of that was defense...and we aren't talking defense right now.

 

Yeah, we're gonna take a hit in the one and two spot, Mauer would likely have a dropoff of RISP situation, but it's not gonna be a third.

[Shane Wahl]

I am still flabbergasted that anyone thinks Mauer should bat third. It just seems like such a preposterous thing. Oh well.

[ThePuck]

From Fangraphs when talking about an offensive comparison for the MVP:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trout-versus-cabrera-offense-only-context-included/

 

This metric is called RE24. It’s been on the site for years, and is available as part of our Win Probability section. We don’t use it a lot, because in general we prefer to talk about players from a context-neutral perspective, but for the purpose of this discussion, it might just be the perfect metric. RE24 is essentially the difference between the run expectancy when a hitter comes to the plate and when his at-bat ends. For example, September 16th, Cabrera came to the plate against Joe Smith with runners at first and second and two outs, a situation where the Tigers would be expected to score 0.33 runs on average. Cabrera hit a three run home run, so they actually scored three runs, and RE24 gives Cabrera credit for +2.67 runs, the gap between what they were expected to score and what they actually scored.

 

Unlike with context-neutral statistics like wRC+, RE24 takes the number of outs and number of baserunners into account. It does not assume that all home runs are equal, nor does it treat a strikeout with a man on third base and one out as just another out. The rewards for performing with men on base are higher, and the blame for failing in those same situations is steeper as well. This is a metric that essentially quantifies the total offensive value of a player based on the situations that he actually faced.

 

This is not a theoretical metric. If you hit a three run home run, you get more credit than if you hit a solo home run. If you are consistently getting hits with two outs to drive in runs, you get more credit than if those hits come with no outs and the bases empty. And, of course, it’s only an offensive metric, so there’s no defensive component, no position adjustments, and no replacement level. This is just straight up offense, adjusted for the context of the situations that they faced.

 

Mauer finished 6th in the AL.

 

Of course, that's SABR stuff, so if we look at normal stats...

 

He had an OPS over 1.000 with RISP. He hit better than WIllingham did with RISP. And you are surprised some think that on this team, he should bat third?

[jokin]

I don't put much value in stolen bases...Bill James did a great study that showed the minimal value of the stolen base. Believe me when I tell you, I get the value of Span (was my favorite Twin behind Morny) and Revere but a lot of that was defense...and we aren't talking defense right now.

 

Yeah, we're gonna take a hit in the one and two spot, Mauer would likely have a dropoff of RISP situation, but it's not gonna be a third.

 

Mauer had only 192 PAs w/RISP in 2012. Span and Revere reached base 183 & 182 times, totaling 365 reaches. Combining their abilities to reach base at a high proficiency in the first place, hit for Doubles and Triples 61 times combined, efficiently steal a base, take the extra base on balls in play, and run out of the DP situations at both 1B & 2B, you don't see a chance for a significant drop off in Mauer RISP opportunities? The 192 PAs w/RISP works out to 1.31 RISP chances per game for Mauer's 147 games played in 2012, I can easily see that number dropping to 1.00 or lower in 2013. Simply put, there are going to be a lot more outs made by the 9,1 & 2 hitters in 2013..... (FYI, hitting in front of Span, Carroll was a great #9 hitter @ .357OBP! The Twins were 3rd in the league at OBP in the #9 slot @ .303. I can easily envision our #9 OBP dropping to the bottom close to Oakland As levels of OBP .258, or worse)...... combined with a lot less extra bases taken in those 3 slots just in front of Mauer.

 

Example: Tampa Bay's primary #3 hitter, Ben Zobrist got only 100 RISP opportunities with the Rays- with their right around 10th or 11th best OBP numbers- in the 9,1 & 2 slots.

[ThePuck]

Mauer had only 192 PAs w/RISP in 2012. Span and Revere reached base 183 & 182 times, totaling 365 reaches. Combining their abilities to reach base at a high proficiency in the first place, hit for Doubles and Triples 61 times combined, efficiently steal a base, take the extra base on balls in play, and run out of the DP situations at both 1B & 2B, you don't see a chance for a significant drop off in Mauer RISP opportunities? The 192 PAs w/RISP works out to 1.31 RISP chances per game for Mauer's 147 games played in 2012, I can easily see that number dropping to 1.00 or lower in 2013. Simply put, there are going to be a lot more outs made by the 9,1 & 2 hitters in 2013..... (FYI, hitting in front of Span, Carroll was a great #9 hitter @ .357OBP! The Twins were 3rd in the league at OBP in the #9 slot @ .303. I can easily envision our #9 OBP dropping to the bottom close to Oakland As levels of OBP .258, or worse)...... combined with a lot less extra bases taken in those 3 slots just in front of Mauer.

 

Example: Tampa Bay's primary #3 hitter, Ben Zobrist got only 100 RISP opportunities with the Rays- with their right around 10th or 11th best OBP numbers- in the 9,1 & 2 slots.

 

You're switching from plate appearances to ABs. You mention Mauer's plate appearances with RISP to get the larger number, then Zobrists ABs to get the lower number.

 

Zobrist had 142 plate appearances with RISP and only had 40% of his overall plate appearances were in the 3 spot. He also had 144 PAs combined between 1 and 2 spots...

 

So, you're saying if Mauer gets roughly the same amount of plate appearances (641) as he did last year, he's only going to have, at MOST, 128 plate appearances with RISP...in the 3 spot. That would be 'at least one-third' of a dropoff, which is what you had said. Something to watch for that's for sure. He had more than that in 2007 when he only played 109 games and had 170 less plate appearances.

[fairweather]

Obviously a hell yes from me.

 

The old adage is wrong. The best OBP and overall hitters should be batting 1,2, and 4, with a speedier type batting first and a power guy 4th. The guy batting 3rd should be a slugger because he often comes up with no one on base and two out in the first inning (Willingham). Batting fifth should be another slugger, but one who shouldn't live and die with it and simply be a HR or K guy.

 

Disclaimer: lineup construction is somewhat overrated and does really only take shape in the first inning (though it can still be the case in 1-4 innings in tight games).

 

That said:

 

X

Mauer

Willingham

Morneau (here's to hoping that he returns to form in 2013.

Doumit

Plouffe

Parmelee

X

X

 

would seem to make the most sense.

 

I have to think Justin would be the guy to hit 3rd because you want someone in the 3 hole who can hit for average and power. Willingham is a photo-typical #4. The lineup I want to see goes like this.

 

Hicks

Mauer

Morneau

Willingham

Doumit

Parmalee

Plouffe

Dozier

Florimon

Especially if you're going to lead off with a rookie you want Mauer and Morneau immediately behind him so he see plenty of fastballs.

[jokin]

I have to think Justin would be the guy to hit 3rd because you want someone in the 3 hole who can hit for average and power. Willingham is a photo-typical #4. The lineup I want to see goes like this.

 

Hicks

Mauer

Morneau

Willingham

Doumit

Parmalee

Plouffe

Dozier

Florimon

Especially if you're going to lead off with a rookie you want Mauer and Morneau immediately behind him so he see plenty of fastballs.

 

This is the actual lineup I'd endorse (w/ the exception of Carroll substituting for Dozier) when the next manager of the Twins takes over at the All-Star break...

[Willihammer]

Here is the thing, a PA with no outs and nobody on base is twice as important as a PA with 2 outs and nobody on base, and 50% more important than a PA with 1 out and nobody on base. So, if you want to argue that your best OBP guy should be hitting anywhere other than leadoff, you need to prove that he will produce enough times with enough men on base to justify forfeiting all those no out-no men on, 1st inning PAs.