Article: The Fifth Starter

[ltwedt]

I believe that the 2013 edition of the Twins is compilation of players that TR is hoping will all have career years. I can not believe that he could expect Willingham will have a season like last year, and that Plouffe will have a year like his July and early August, but that's the way it appears.

 

On the pitching side, I really think that there are pitchers that will excel at Rochester, yet fail at the major league level - read here - De Vries, Hendricks, Blackie, et al. The hope that Diamond (most probably a legit 3 or 4 in any other mlb rotation), Worley (a stretch #2 or 3), and Correia can anchor this staff is scary! Like beyond hope scary!

 

I am still holding out hope that we make a trade - but who and from where?

[jimbo92107]

I'll call it for Deduno and DeVries to start the season as 5th and 6th starters, with Gibson starting in AAA, then moving to the rotation sometime mid season. Gibson could push Deduno and DeVries into the pen for relief and spot starts, of which there will be many.

 

Blackburn is now on the outside, looking in. I liked him, but his career is winding down fast. Outside shots for Alex Meyer or Esmerling Vasquez sometime during the season. This rotation is full of guys that have had arm trouble in the past, and half of them will go down if Twins luck holds true.

[3up3down]

i agree with Lew, devries pitched the most consistent & he is right he has earned a chance to compete for a spot & there is no doubt he will compete with others like deduno, walters,hendricks, etc..but out of all those the better pitcher was walters, when he 1st came up he was very impressive & then he was injured, if healthy he will be in the mix, and i dont think a 40 man spot matters at all , TR made it clear he doesnt mind clearing a spot...and when the ones that dont make the team go to rochester there is no #6,7 or 8 , the only thing that matters then is who is pitching the best & most consistent & possibly whos day it lines up with..and harden will never see rochester, he either makes the team or if not ready stays in extended getting healthy & goes up, if a spot doesnt open up he opts out, no way he pitches in rochester..

[DelawareTwinsFan]

I think Correia is looking more and more like money out the window. I hope I'm wrong but my inkling is that he will be another Marquis. I expect he is DFA's by June. I expect Hendriks to get a spot, Pelfrey should get spot starts but is probably best suited in the bullpen. As much as I'd like to see Gibson get a shot, without AAA experience, and excess other arms with starting potential, he should refine his skills at Rochester. It also concerns me that he still admits to not really feeling "right" though he's throwing the heck out of the ball, he is still figuring out what he has with regards to ball movement and bite on his breaking pitches. Perfect reason to pitch AAA. Deduno and DeVries need to develop another pitch to really be ready up here. Deduno needs to figure out where his two seamer ends up, controlling the fastball is critical to his success. He's got so much movement, he might benefit from working on a cutter, something a bit easier to control. DeVries has a good curve but it's far from knee buckling so another pitch should help him. Maybe improve the changeup. Harden will be closely watched in spring training. Wonder how hard he's throwing. I realize Diamond had a great 2012 but his stuff isn't particularly nasty, just consistent. I suspect he's only locked up a spot because no one else seems to be able to eat innings. Sure hope they sign Joe Saunders. Need some stability in the rotation and he's certainly the kind of guy to do it.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I fear that the only thing the Rich Harden of 2013 has in common with the Rich Harden of 2004 is, well, the name itself. The track record is that if he's in the rotation, he'll be in and out of it. I am very optimistic that the braintrust can figure out a useful role for him and get productive innings without disrupting anyone else. I just don't see it as being in the rotation, except maybe later on in the year.

 

I agree--stick a fork in Harden--he is done. Maybe he occupies 5th spot till Pelfrey/Gibson is totally recovered--but maybe not.

 

My rotation--Diamond, Worley, Corriea, Hendricks (last shot) then Pelfrey/Gibson, skip 5th starter for a while (when needed use Deduno) insert Pelfrey/Gibson May. If Gibson is going to be on an innings limit--pitch him weekly--shuffle the rest and when needed give Deduno a start.

[ThePuck]

Even if Gardy was inclined to skip a starter, it's unlikely to happen at the beginning of the season when it's early and colder. Our pitchers have even lower pitch counts than normal during the first month, not gonna skip a starter.

[Nick Nelson]

Even if Gardy was inclined to skip a starter, it's unlikely to happen at the beginning of the season when it's early and colder. Our pitchers have even lower pitch counts than normal during the first month, not gonna skip a starter.

 

Because of the way off days are arranged in the early weeks of the season, a team can usually roll with four starters and keep them on regular rest for the first couple turns through the rotation. Pretty sure this happened just last year, when Marquis was away.

[ThePuck]

Because of the way off days are arranged in the early weeks of the season, a team can usually roll with four starters and keep them on regular rest for the first couple turns through the rotation. Pretty sure this happened just last year, when Marquis was away.

 

Are you saying that, as a rule, most teams do that?

 

There's 4 days off in April this year. 26 games played. 8 days straight, 6 games straight, 5 games straight, and 6 games straight.

 

Only two days off in May. 29 games in May, including streaks of 13 and 15 games straight.

 

6 days off the first two months.

 

And he said skip a starter for awhile, wasn't specific to a couple rounds.

[cmathewson]

Where have you heard this about Pelfrey? It seems unlikely to me, since he has incentives in his contract and while I haven't seen the specifics I doubt they start below 120 innings. He's going to want to pitch as much as he can and since it's a one-year deal, the Twins don't have much reason not to let him.

 

I suppose Pelfrey won't be treated with kid gloves. This is most likely his audition for other teams. It's a long shot he pitches for the Twins next year, so why not throw him out there until he gets a dead arm? That said, 120 innings is a common benchmark for guys to start getting dead arm a year after Tommy John.

 

So let's start Gibson as the long man in the bullpen (instead of Swarzak). Give him about 50 innings in that role. When Pelfrey wears out, move Gibson to the rotation and move Pelfrey back to the bullpen (or trade him for a prospect). That'll give Gibson 15 starts or so and 120 innings overall.

[cmathewson]

It will come down to Pelfrey, Haren and Hendriks. Possibly Pelfrey will start the season on the dl and Haren in the minors (they would have to find a 40-man spot for him). Gibson will start in long-relief in the minors and become a starter if/when Haren moves to the big leagues. Deduno is a long, long shot...not being on the 40-man.

 

The Twins have very limited 40-man movement. They have a Rule 5. They have Wood or Roeinke taking spaces who need to stay or be removed. They can drop DeVries and probably not have him claimed by anyone. Swarzak is out of options.

 

Butera could always be sent away to free a roster spot, but think the Twins want Hermann to spend more time at AAA.

 

And everything is blown apart if the Twins sign Saunders.

 

Almost more curious to see who is in the rotation at Rochester, assuming Pelfrey and Haren would start there, Blackburn on a delay, Walters, Deduno, DeVries, maybe May and Meyer, Vasquez and Martis in the mix, maybe Hermsen. Too many bodies there. Maybe the Twins needed to Rule 5 a catching prospect or back-up infielder, of even another, heaven forbid, outfielder!

 

I doubt Swarzak survives, and he'll get claimed. That's one spot. I hope they don't need three catchers out of the chute. So they could drop Butters, and he won't get claimed. Haren will start the year in AAA. I doubt they sign Saunders, though I hope they can. If they do, DeVries would need to get DFAed.

[Nick Nelson]

Are you saying that, as a rule, most teams do that?

 

No, I said that quite often teams have the option of doing it.

 

So let's start Gibson as the long man in the bullpen (instead of Swarzak). Give him about 50 innings in that role. When Pelfrey wears out, move Gibson to the rotation and move Pelfrey back to the bullpen (or trade him for a prospect). That'll give Gibson 15 starts or so and 120 innings overall.

 

I could get behind that. Problem is that Pelfrey seems somewhat unlikely to be ready to step in at the start of the season, unless his rehab goes extremely well.

[Gaettifan]

Has there ever been a rotation where no starter ever made it to the 8th inning? Maybe this team does have a chance to make history.

[greengoblinrulz]

Liam Hendriks goes in spring training as the 5th starter & its his job to win or lose.

[cmathewson]

I could get behind that. Problem is that Pelfrey seems somewhat unlikely to be ready to step in at the start of the season, unless his rehab goes extremely well.

 

Ryan said he expects Pelfrey to be fully ready for Spring Training and to start the year with the team. Perhapsthat's over-optimistic. But I trust he has some medical reason for saying that. Pelfrey did have to pass an extensive physical before the contract was official.

[SweetOne69]

Pelfrey is a veteran and is basically in the same boat as Baker. Pelfrey's TJ surgery was only 2 weeks after Baker's. So if the Twins expected Baker to be ready by opening day there is no reason Pelfrey won't be. Also since Pelfrey is a 5+ year veteran he won't have the innings restrictions as the rookie Gibson.