Might the Minnesota Twins Consider a 6-Man Rotation in 2020?

[Nine of twelve]

 

I think the next development in the post-Hader and opener era will be a few specialist swingmen who start a dozen games a year and alternately pitch in high leverage situations.

 

But like Hader and Andrew Miller before him, there will only be a few noteworthy pitchers to take a new role like that while everybody else calls it the next big thing.

The problem with this is that it's very rare that a pitcher who is conditioned to pitch an inning or less can, without a period of time to recondition himself, start a game and go 5+ innings. It's somewhat akin to the difference between a sprinter and a marathoner.

[Linus]

I support RBs theory. Get your 13 best pitchers and use them whenever and however you need them to get outs. Maybe that means guys whose job is to piggyback and it likely means almost everyone has the conditioning to go multiple innings.

[stockdogg]

Well in the case of Odorizzi, he most certainly falls off 3rd time through the lineup.  Berrios last year went from about .670 OPS to .750 OPS 3rd time through, Odorizzi low .600's first 2 , .850 the 3rd time through. Which was better than the year before.  My hope is that he continues to "stretch out" and continue to be just as effective around 100 pitches and 3rd time through lineup as he is early on.  At least, close the gap.  Jake can be dominant first 4-5 innings of games, piling up strikeouts.

   But Rocco most definitely has commented on the "3rd time thru" theory, I just can't find it anywhere at the moment. 

[stockdogg]

I believe our bullpen got into trouble partly because Odorizzi and other starters, while not having bad starts, were only lasting 5 innings, maybe getting pulled in the 6th.  A whole pitching staff can't rely on having good starts max out at 6 innings and expect 3-4 guys to remain fresh and effective for long stretches.  Which, yes, I think maybe that's where this "6 man rotation" idea comes from, but I still don't think its a good idea.  If Odorizzi is your ace and he gives you a solid 5 and a third, then Berrios goes 6, that puts a lot of strain on the bottom 3 guys as well as bullpen.

[jorgenswest]

Well in the case of Odorizzi, he most certainly falls off 3rd time through the lineup.  Berrios last year went from about .670 OPS to .750 OPS 3rd time through, Odorizzi low .600's first 2 , .850 the 3rd time through. Which was better than the year before.  My hope is that he continues to "stretch out" and continue to be just as effective around 100 pitches and 3rd time through lineup as he is early on.  At least, close the gap.  Jake can be dominant first 4-5 innings of games, piling up strikeouts.

   But Rocco most definitely has commented on the "3rd time thru" theory, I just can't find it anywhere at the moment.

 

There is an important difference driving the data.

 

Odorizzi uses more pitches per plate appearance and ends up averaging 21.9 batters faced per game. Berrios uses fewer pitches and averages 26.3 batters per game. The end result is that the Berrios third time through data has much more of the bottom of the line up than the Odorizzi data.

 

Berrios faces more batters per game and that is a benefit. It is a benefit with a hidden cost. Berrios is crushed when batters hit him with 0-0 and 1-0 counts. Odorizzi does not give in early in counts and has many fewer plate appearances of 1 or 2 pitches. The result is facing fewer batters per outing and a set of batters the third time through that is heavily skewed by the top three batters in the line up and an absence of the bottom third.