Predict the top 5 FA

[cmoss84]

Who do you think the top 5 FA players will go to and why?

(let's just the say the top 5 are Harper, Machado, Kimbrel, Corbin & Keuchel)

 

Mine:

Harper goes to SF. They are dying for some offense and someone who can supplement Posey. Also, could help Bad Bum re-sign. Who better than Harper to hit souvenirs into McCovey Cove?

8 years/300 million 

 

Machado stays in LA. Dodgers promise to keep him at SS and move Seager to 3B. Turner moves to 2nd...but those 3, along with Chris Taylor, can move all over the field. Dodgers all in for Kershaw's last years. He will be young enough to sign one last major deal after this deal is up. 

5 years/200 million

 

Kimbrel stays with Boston. This team is so good, and will be in "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" mode. More annual $ to keep him less years. Becomes the highest paid closer in those terms. 

3 years/60 million

 

Philly misses out on Harper and Machado and panics. They overspend on Corbin, thinking a rotation of Nola, Arrieta, Corbin, etc. will make up for it. 

6 years/150 million

 

Keuchel switches leagues and joins a rotation of deGrom/Syndergaard and Wheeler. One last chance before the Mets blow things up.

3 years/75 million

 

Who goes where??

[dbminn]

The only one of my five that has a good chance is Machado. Harper maybe. The other 3, IMO, are good fits but not expected. 

 

Bryce Harper energizes the Atlanta Braves, taking RF from fellow FA Nick Markakis. The Braves have young studs, top prospects, and plenty of money. Harper gets at least one contract opt-out and signs for 9yr/$288M. 

 

Manny Machado takes his sass to the home of bad attitude, Philadelphia. Same contract terms as Harper - 9yr/$288M.

 

Patrick Corbin stays out west after getting a surprise offer from the Angels. The team has Trout for only two more years and about $150M in payroll. It's now or never. It's a good deal for both - 5yr/$125M.

 

Dallas Keuchel sorts through a pile of offers and signs with the Chicago White Sox. He'll lead their young staff as their prospects arrive in the bigs. 4yr/$88M.

 

Nathan Eovaldi signs with the Washington Nationals. He slots into the rotation with a contract of 4yr/$64M. Nats have a lot of good players but need a 3rd starter behind Strassburg and Scherzer.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I like your projections a lot,other than Corbin for 5 years, though I get your point......

[Dr. Beanpole]

Harper: Takes forever to decide, turns half his suitors off, signs with Philly for 30M AAV. Turns down offers from the Yankees and Cubs for slightly less to get on the youth train before it takes off in Philly.

 

Machado: Doesn't get the big deal he was hoping for, postpones his FA one more year in hopes of scoring that mega contract. Machado signs with Cleveland or the Dodgers (can't decide yet) on a 1 year deal for about 40M AAV. 

 

Kimbrel: Stays put. Enough said. 

 

Corbin: Gets overpaid to be a replacement for Morton/McCullers/Kuechel in Houston, they lock him up for 5-6 years at around 24M AAV. 

 

Kuechel: Underwhelming offers force him to also take a lower deal, signs with Colorado on a 2 year deal for 20M AAV. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Harper: Takes forever to decide, turns half his suitors off, signs with Philly for 30M AAV. Turns down offers from the Yankees and Cubs for slightly less to get on the youth train before it takes off in Philly.

 

Machado: Doesn't get the big deal he was hoping for, postpones his FA one more year in hopes of scoring that mega contract. Machado signs with Cleveland or the Dodgers (can't decide yet) on a 1 year deal for about 40M AAV. 

 

Kimbrel: Stays put. Enough said. 

 

Corbin: Gets overpaid to be a replacement for Morton/McCullers/Kuechel in Houston, they lock him up for 5-6 years at around 24M AAV. 

 

Kuechel: Underwhelming offers force him to also take a lower deal, signs with Colorado on a 2 year deal for 20M AAV. 

 

20MM is low for Kuechel, but 24MM is high for Corbin?

 

Why wouldn't Machado get a huge deal, do you think? I really doubt you are right on that one, so I'm curious why you think that.

[Dr. Beanpole]

 

20MM is low for Kuechel, but 24MM is high for Corbin?

 

Why wouldn't Machado get a huge deal, do you think? I really doubt you are right on that one, so I'm curious why you think that.

I see Corbin's price getting inflated by having the Yankees in on the bidding, but I could see Kuechel going for a little more depending on who wants him. I haven't heard a lot on his front yet so I have the feeling he's not going to have much to choose from.

 

I can't come up with the team that coughs up 30M for Machado, that's really the problem I have. If it's not the Dodgers, I don't see it. With the amount of teams selling this offseason and the limited spots to put him in, I've got it narrowed down to the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, and maybe the Cards. I think Angels and Yankees go for pitching instead, and I just don't see the Cardinals being that big of players in the market this year for some reason. So unless the Dodgers are ready to pony up for Machado I think he gets underwhelming offers from the Pirates and maybe the Phillies, and he decides to try his luck next year at a crazy expensive 1 year deal. 

 

I could be very wrong, but I just don't see where he goes this offseason with so many teams already deciding they're not competing next year. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I see Corbin's price getting inflated by having the Yankees in on the bidding, but I could see Kuechel going for a little more depending on who wants him. I haven't heard a lot on his front yet so I have the feeling he's not going to have much to choose from.

 

I can't come up with the team that coughs up 30M for Machado, that's really the problem I have. If it's not the Dodgers, I don't see it. With the amount of teams selling this offseason and the limited spots to put him in, I've got it narrowed down to the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, and maybe the Cards. I think Angels and Yankees go for pitching instead, and I just don't see the Cardinals being that big of players in the market this year for some reason. So unless the Dodgers are ready to pony up for Machado I think he gets underwhelming offers from the Pirates and maybe the Phillies, and he decides to try his luck next year at a crazy expensive 1 year deal. 

 

I could be very wrong, but I just don't see where he goes this offseason with so many teams already deciding they're not competing next year. 

 

thanks for the reply. I think the White Sox and Phillies should be on your list for sure. Possibly the Red Sox, but that seems unlikely to me. Possibly the Cubs, but I doubt they spend the money. I also think the Gians are somewhat in on him. And, why not San Diego? 

[Dr. Beanpole]

 

thanks for the reply. I think the White Sox and Phillies should be on your list for sure. Possibly the Red Sox, but that seems unlikely to me. Possibly the Cubs, but I doubt they spend the money. I also think the Gians are somewhat in on him. And, why not San Diego? 

I guess the White Sox could be in on him, although I don't see them spending a ton of money this year with the FA class next year being strong and they're still out of competing for a while. Phillies probably can't afford both Harper and Machado, so that's what took them out of it for me. 

 

I would agree the Red Sox don't touch their team, especially after resigning Pearce. Cubs don't really have a spot for him to play unless they move Bryant to the OF permanently or Baez back to 2B, and I'm not sold that they want to do that. Giants seem to be sellers at the moment, not sure they will be able to afford him, and even if they could they would need to create a spot for him with Longoria and Crawford taking up his 2 places to play. And San Diego is a couple years out of contention still and probably can't afford to overpay for another FA. 

 

End of the day, anything can happen. That's just how I see those teams shaking down. The interesting one to me is Cleveland, they could afford him but it would likely mean they would need to trade Jose Ramirez before his contract expires because they wouldn't be able to afford him at that point. So it buys them a couple of years to try to win it all before they are forced to give up their 2nd best player. I could potentially see that, but I don't think it would be a smart move on their part. 

[cmoss84]

Philly misses out on Harper and Machado and panics. They overspend on Corbin, thinking a rotation of Nola, Arrieta, Corbin, etc. will make up for it.

6 years/150 million

 

Close on $. Very wrong on the team.

Max

Strasburg

Corbin

Roark

Who cares

 

Nice little rotation...I guess they are trying to soften the blow of losing Harper.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, Corbin to the Nats for 6 years and 140MM.....