Nick Gordon - 2017

[markos]

History

 

The Twins selected Nick Gordon with the 5th overall pick in the 2014 draft out of Olympia HS in Florida. He is the son of former major league pitcher Tom Gordon, and brother of current major leaguer Dee Gordon. Immediately after signing, Gordon was assigned to the Twins Rookie-ball affiliate in Elizabethton. This was a reasonably aggressive move for the organization, as they often start their HS draftees in the Gulf Coast League at Fort Myers. In 255 plate appearances, he hit .294/.333/.366, good for a 101 wRC+. Gordon spent the entire 2015 season at Cedar Rapids where he hit a solid-but-not-spectacular .277/.336/.360, which was good for a 104 wRC+. In 2016, Gordon moved up to Fort Myers. In 493 PAs, he hit .291/.335/.386, good for a 112 wRC+. To cap off his season, he was selected by the Twins to play in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit a robust .346/.404/.444. Gordon is starting the 2017 season at Chattanooga, the Twins AA affiliate.

 

Pre-2017 Prospect Rankings

Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen): #66

“Gordon’s actions at shortstop were not as polished in the Fall League as I’d hoped to see, but he clearly has the physical ability to play a solid shortstop while being competent, but not impactful, with the bat.”

 

ESPN (Keith Law): #53

“The tools say he’ll be an average big leaguer, but I believe his instincts and understanding of the game will allow him to be more.”

 

Baseball America: #60

“Gordon’s game is predicated more on fundamentals than flash, and he’ll need to continue to refine those fundamentals for him to stick at shortstop. Gordon’s instincts and feel for the game are ahead of many players his age—thanks in part to his big league genetics—and that aptitude helps him play above his raw tools.”

 

Baseball Prospectus: #48

"You’ve had ham and cheese sandwiches on white bread that were more exciting than Gordon, but hey, ham and cheese sandwiches get the job done when you’re hungry."
 

Minor League Ball (John Sickels): #43 (B+)

“Projects as a regular shortstop with an above-average glove who will hit for average, show some pop to the gaps, and steal 15-20 bases a year.”

 

MLB Pipeline: #48

“Gordon continues to be more high floor than high ceiling, a prospect who doesn't have one "wow" tool, but who can do everything relatively well. He'll continue his path toward being a solid everyday big leaguer with a move to the upper levels.”

 

As you can see, there is a strong consensus with Gordon right now. He is a good prospect, but a high-floor/low-ceiling one. He is very clearly a second-tier shortstop prospect now behind guys like Gleyber Torres, Amed Rosario, JP Crawford and Brendan Rodgers. His future value is strongly dependent on being average-ish at basically everything, as there aren't a lot of signs right now that he will end up above-average or plus in many areas.

 

Keys for 2017:

There are three areas that I will be keeping a close eye with regard to Gordon:

Power: Gordon has yet to have an ISO above .100 in any full season, though he was close last year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. While he doesn’t need to have a lot of power to be a productive big leaguer, even a small jump in power would definitely improve his outlook. There is an expectation that he will show more power as he fills into his frame, but that hasn't really happened yet.

Plate Discipline: As mentioned in several of his prospect writeups, Gordon has pretty good bat-on-ball skills, but has a tendency to chase and expand the zone. His career K% is reasonable (~17%) but his walk rate is a little on the low side (<6%). If he isn’t able to improve his power, then it is imperative that he is able to add more value with the plate by walking at a higher frequency.

Defense: This is probably the most difficult skill to judge, but it is the linchpin of his entire profile. If Gordon isn’t an average or better shortstop, it is unlikely that he will hit enough to make up for his defensive liabilities, or to switch to an easier position on the defensive spectrum.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW's update this week has Gordon at #44 of those still in the minors, with a possible ETA of 2018.

[markos]

54 plate appearances into the season, Nick Gordon is off to a hot start. Now, it is only 54 plate appearances, so please don't adjust your priors too much. But the early results are encouraging.

AVG: .333
OBP: .389
SLG: .458

 

ISO: .125
BABIP: .385
wRC+: 157

 

K%: 16.7%
BB%: 9.3%

 

Now his overall batting line is inflated by a high BABIP, but the key factor right now is that he is hitting for power and his walk-rate is up without an increase in is strikeout-rate. He has played the majority of games at SS (8), but has a few starts at 2B as well (4).

It's still early, but so far so good.

[markos]

Nick Gordon has continued his torrid start. After 154 plate appearances:
AVG: .319
OBP: .383
SLG: .464

ISO: .145
BABIP: .396
wRC+: 145

K%: 20.1%
BB%: 9.7%

It is still the case that his overall slash line is bouyed by an un-sustainable BABIP, but his early season improvements in walk rate and power have held up. His K% is creeping up a little bit, which is worrisome, but for now the tradeoff for more walks and more power is one worth making. Overall one has to be happy with the improvements so far. It is also worth pointing out that he is still running a 50-50 platoon with Veilma between SS and 2B.

[markos]

Nick Gordon has continued his torrid start. After 283 plate appearances:
AVG: .318
OBP: .382
SLG: .510

ISO: .192
BABIP: .397
wRC+: 157

K%: 21.6%
BB%: 9.2%

 

Positives:
Too many to list? A power uptick wasn't completely unexpected, but this current surge has certainly been beyound my wildest expectations. His ISO currently has him at 7th in all of the Southern League. His wRC+ has him currently at 13th in all of AA. As a 21-year-old SS, this is incredibly good.

 

Cautions:
It is still the case that his overall slash line is bouyed by an un-sustainable BABIP, so take it with a grain of salt. More concerning is that his strikeout and walk rates are slipping in the wrong direction. Over the last month, his K% has been closer to 25%, while his BB% has been down near 8%. This isn't a huge red flag, but it is a reason to hedge against Gordon a little bit.

[Oxtung]

I wish we had statcast data for him. It would be interesting to know if his uptick in ISO was due to physical maturing or a mechanical change that resulted in a new swing plane/launch angle/exit velocity.

[markos]

After neglecting Gordon for too long, here is an update after 466 plate appearances:
AVG: .282
OBP: .356
SLG: .436
ISO: .154
BABIP: .354
wRC+: 130
K%: 21.7%
BB%: 9.9%

 

Cautions:
Gordon has really struggled over the past 178 PAs - a .643 OPS and just a 90 wRC+. This recent stretch has put a damper on his overall line.

Positives:
Optimisitically, this recent swoon is mostly BABIP induced. He has a .284 BABIP since my last update despite being a career .350 BABIP guy. His walk rate has actually ticked up a little bit during this stretch, and his ISO, while lower than his torrid start, is still higher than his previous career high.

 

Ranking updates:
During the past month several prospect analysts have re-ranked players, and Gordon has moved up. Gordon now comfortably sits in the top-40 across the board:
BA - #19
MLB - #34
Keith Law - #30

He also sits at #49 in the statistically-inclined KATOH+ projection system.

[DocBauer]

Repeating myself from previous posts elsewhere, wasn't the biggest fan of his initial selection as scouting reports all had his scores in the 50's and touching 60. For someone drafted that high?

 

But his work, dedication, his last two seasons and ALF appearances, he's made me a believer. Not too concerned about a recent slump. As you stated, his BABIP is lower than normal, other stats are good, and slumps happen. Also, still not worried about errors at this point. Milb fields and milb 1B, plus...as I've pointed out many times in other threads...look up errors made by top SS early in their careers, even at the ML level and you will be surprised.

 

Whether or not his ultimate position is SS or 2B, I sure hope we can hold on to him and not include him in a trade.