2017 offseason blueprint

[markos]

Sorry this is in a bit of a ragged state. I have always wanted to do an offseason blueprint, but life interferes and it always gets overcome by the offseason moves. Ideally, I would have stronger takes on roster details (this plan has 40-man issues...) and payroll (which I ignore completely), but there isn't enough time... 

 

Overview:
As I see the current state of the organization, 2017 should be focused on determining whether or not the seeds of a 90+ win team exists. First, is there a core of 4-6 players that can be penciled in for 20+ WAR per season? Second, is there enough depth fill out the rest of the 25-man roster with better-than-replacement-level depth?

Even the most optimistic projections indicate that the current roster isn’t very good. The early consensus indicates that the squad should be somewhere in the 75ish win range. This leaves a lot of work to get to the level of a perennial contender - enough work that realistically the organization is building for 2019 rather than 2017 or 2018. Given that, it is likely that Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana will not be part of the next good Twins team.

My plan, broadly speaking, is has three areas of focus:
- Give playing time to the potential core players
- Clear out veterans and replacement-level fodder
- Add quality depth to support (hopefully) elite core

40-man roster decisions:
Removed everyone who is on the old side and who I consider replacement-level at best.
Pat Dean
Buddy Boshers
Andrew Albers
Alex Wimmers
Logan Schafer
James Beresford
Danny Santana (legitimate case as the worst MLB player for the past two seasons…)
Ryan O’Rourke

Arbitration Decisions:
Brandon Kintzler: No. Need room for to give younger bullpen arms a shot.
Trevor Plouffe: No. Too expensive.
Hector Santiago: Yes. Want 1 tradeable starter. At 1-yr/$8M, Santiago is as good as any other similarly priced pitcher on FA market.
Tommy Milone: No.
Eduardo Escobar: Yes.
Kyle Gibson: Yes.
Ryan Pressly: Yes.

31 spots if my math is correct...

Rule 5 adds:
Fernando Romero
Felix Jorge
Jason Wheeler
Zach Granite
Daniel Palka
Mitch Garver

37 spots...

Trades:
Most of my blueprint hinges on the trades of Dozier and Santana. I am on record on being a Dozier optimist, and I am fully aware that both of these trades are on the optimistic side. And my own preference is to focus on depth rather than sell-out for upside. So your mileage may vary on these trades...
Dozier -> Dodger
Most obvious fit right now. Dodgers have a big hole at 2B; they are in a win-now mode; and they have plenty of prospects to burn. My return is:
Jose De Leon - top-50 pitching prospect. May not have #1 upside, but dominated AAA. Ready for majors.
Brock Stewart - backend starter with 6 years of team control remaining. Has potential to be an average starter.
Chris Taylor - 26yo SS. 5 years of team control remaining. Like Stewart, should be above replacement-level, but league-average is probably his ceiling.
Santana + Vargas -> Texas
Texas had the worst 1B/DH combo in the league, and they also need starting pitching. It seems like a good fit to clear out some of the DH/1B logjam and move Santana. In return:
Jurickson Profar - 24yo SS. 3 years of team control remaining. Former #1 prospect, but multiple shoulder injuries have derailed career.
Cole Ragans - 19yo LHP. 2016 #30 pick.

38 spots...

Rule 5 pick:
Definitely pick someone in the Rule 5 draft

39 spots...

Free Agency:
1 - Sign Jason Castro. He has the potential to be a great fit. He has really struggled against lefties, but a smart platoon with Murphy or Garver could mitigate that weakness. He receives top marks for his pitch-framing and defense. 
2 - reclamation bullpen arms
One or two ‘used to be good’ arms on 1 or 2 year deals. Options include Greg Holland, Neftali Feliz, Drew Storen, Luke Hochevar.
One or two ‘hey, maybe something will happen’ arms on minor league deals. Options include moving Mat Latos to bullpen, reclamation of former top-prospects Casey Kelly and Jacob Turner, trying Jorge de la Rosa as a LOOGY.

42 spots…
Not sure how to count Perkins and Hughes. With Hughes in particular, there is a decent chance that his career is over. Perkins is a question mark as well.

Starting Lineup:

C - Castro
1B - Mauer
2B - Polanco
SS - Profar
3B - Sano
LF - Rosario
CF - Buxton
RF - Kepler
DH - Park

Bench:
Murphy
Escobar
Grossman
Taylor

 

I like this lineup because it has a ton of flexibility and depth. Four switch-hitters. Four guys who can play shortstop. I envision Profar in a Zobrist-esque role, playing all over the diamond, including as the nominal 4th OF. Grossman is primarily a backup DH, PH and occasional OF. He has a short leash; at the very least, he needs to crush lefties. The roster also has lots of good options for late-inning defensive replacements. Without Dozier, the lineup relies a ton on Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Polanco developing. But that is kind of baked into the cake right now anyway... Granite, Palka and Walker provide OF and DH depth if needed.

Starters:
Gibson
Santiago
Berrios
May
Stewart
----
De Leon
Meija
Gonsalves

 

The team will mostly likely need more than five starters, so I don't think it will be a big problem to get everyone enough trial innings. Trevor May is moved back to the rotation. He, Berrios and newly acquired Brock Stewart get the starts out of spring training. If any of the falter, De Leon is the first guy up. One way or another, Santiago is traded in July. That makes room for Meija or Gonsalves. The hope is that by the end of the season, the Twins have 3 or 4 spots in the rotation locked down with at least average arms. 

Bullpen:
FA #1
FA #2
Pressly
Rogers
Tonkin
Chargois
Light

 

The plan here is to provide innings to the FAs, and hopefully one or more will be flippable at the deadline. Joe Smith, Tyler Clippard, Brad Ziegler all returns some interesting pieces at the deadline last year. The Twins should try to take advantage of that. Beyond the free agents, the hope is that the long list of minor league relievers will finally start to have a positive impact with the big league team. At the very least, there will be room for them. If either Perkins or Hughes ends up returning to good health, they probably end up here as well.

[70charger]

This is good stuff, and I think I'm on the same page with most of this.

 

Quick question though - does Trevor May have any options left? Somehow I thought he had used his up, but I could be wrong.

[GMinTraining]

 

Sorry this is in a bit of a ragged state. I have always wanted to do an offseason blueprint, but life interferes and it always gets overcome by the offseason moves. Ideally, I would have stronger takes on roster details (this plan has 40-man issues...) and payroll (which I ignore completely), but there isn't enough time... 

 

Overview:
As I see the current state of the organization, 2017 should be focused on determining whether or not the seeds of a 90+ win team exists. First, is there a core of 4-6 players that can be penciled in for 20+ WAR per season? Second, is there enough depth fill out the rest of the 25-man roster with better-than-replacement-level depth?

Even the most optimistic projections indicate that the current roster isn’t very good. The early consensus indicates that the squad should be somewhere in the 75ish win range. This leaves a lot of work to get to the level of a perennial contender - enough work that realistically the organization is building for 2019 rather than 2017 or 2018. Given that, it is likely that Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana will not be part of the next good Twins team.

My plan, broadly speaking, is has three areas of focus:
- Give playing time to the potential core players
- Clear out veterans and replacement-level fodder
- Add quality depth to support (hopefully) elite core

40-man roster decisions:
Removed everyone who is on the old side and who I consider replacement-level at best.
Pat Dean
Buddy Boshers
Andrew Albers
Alex Wimmers
Logan Schafer
James Beresford
Danny Santana (legitimate case as the worst MLB player for the past two seasons…)
Ryan O’Rourke

Arbitration Decisions:
Brandon Kintzler: No. Need room for to give younger bullpen arms a shot.
Trevor Plouffe: No. Too expensive.
Hector Santiago: Yes. Want 1 tradeable starter. At 1-yr/$8M, Santiago is as good as any other similarly priced pitcher on FA market.
Tommy Milone: No.
Eduardo Escobar: Yes.
Kyle Gibson: Yes.
Ryan Pressly: Yes.

31 spots if my math is correct...

Rule 5 adds:
Fernando Romero
Felix Jorge
Jason Wheeler
Zach Granite
Daniel Palka
Mitch Garver

37 spots...

Trades:
Most of my blueprint hinges on the trades of Dozier and Santana. I am on record on being a Dozier optimist, and I am fully aware that both of these trades are on the optimistic side. And my own preference is to focus on depth rather than sell-out for upside. So your mileage may vary on these trades...
Dozier -> Dodger
Most obvious fit right now. Dodgers have a big hole at 2B; they are in a win-now mode; and they have plenty of prospects to burn. My return is:
Jose De Leon - top-50 pitching prospect. May not have #1 upside, but dominated AAA. Ready for majors.
Brock Stewart - backend starter with 6 years of team control remaining. Has potential to be an average starter.
Chris Taylor - 26yo SS. 5 years of team control remaining. Like Stewart, should be above replacement-level, but league-average is probably his ceiling.
Santana + Vargas -> Texas
Texas had the worst 1B/DH combo in the league, and they also need starting pitching. It seems like a good fit to clear out some of the DH/1B logjam and move Santana. In return:
Jurickson Profar - 24yo SS. 3 years of team control remaining. Former #1 prospect, but multiple shoulder injuries have derailed career.
Cole Ragans - 19yo LHP. 2016 #30 pick.

38 spots...

Rule 5 pick:
Definitely pick someone in the Rule 5 draft

39 spots...

Free Agency:
1 - Sign Jason Castro. He has the potential to be a great fit. He has really struggled against lefties, but a smart platoon with Murphy or Garver could mitigate that weakness. He receives top marks for his pitch-framing and defense. 
2 - reclamation bullpen arms
One or two ‘used to be good’ arms on 1 or 2 year deals. Options include Greg Holland, Neftali Feliz, Drew Storen, Luke Hochevar.
One or two ‘hey, maybe something will happen’ arms on minor league deals. Options include moving Mat Latos to bullpen, reclamation of former top-prospects Casey Kelly and Jacob Turner, trying Jorge de la Rosa as a LOOGY.

42 spots…
Not sure how to count Perkins and Hughes. With Hughes in particular, there is a decent chance that his career is over. Perkins is a question mark as well.

Starting Lineup:

C - Castro
1B - Mauer
2B - Polanco
SS - Profar
3B - Sano
LF - Rosario
CF - Buxton
RF - Kepler
DH - Park

Bench:
Murphy
Escobar
Grossman
Taylor

 

I like this lineup because it has a ton of flexibility and depth. Four switch-hitters. Four guys who can play shortstop. I envision Profar in a Zobrist-esque role, playing all over the diamond, including as the nominal 4th OF. Grossman is primarily a backup DH, PH and occasional OF. He has a short leash; at the very least, he needs to crush lefties. The roster also has lots of good options for late-inning defensive replacements. Without Dozier, the lineup relies a ton on Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Polanco developing. But that is kind of baked into the cake right now anyway... Granite, Palka and Walker provide OF and DH depth if needed.

Starters:
Gibson
Santiago
Berrios
May
Stewart
----
De Leon
Meija
Gonsalves

 

The team will mostly likely need more than five starters, so I don't think it will be a big problem to get everyone enough trial innings. Trevor May is moved back to the rotation. He, Berrios and newly acquired Brock Stewart get the starts out of spring training. If any of the falter, De Leon is the first guy up. One way or another, Santiago is traded in July. That makes room for Meija or Gonsalves. The hope is that by the end of the season, the Twins have 3 or 4 spots in the rotation locked down with at least average arms. 

Bullpen:
FA #1
FA #2
Pressly
Rogers
Tonkin
Chargois
Light

 

The plan here is to provide innings to the FAs, and hopefully one or more will be flippable at the deadline. Joe Smith, Tyler Clippard, Brad Ziegler all returns some interesting pieces at the deadline last year. The Twins should try to take advantage of that. Beyond the free agents, the hope is that the long list of minor league relievers will finally start to have a positive impact with the big league team. At the very least, there will be room for them. If either Perkins or Hughes ends up returning to good health, they probably end up here as well.

No Duffey - Not even in the pen?