What the heck is Fangraphs, and why do people care?

[TheLeviathan]

 

While data needs a large sample to become reliable, the assessment of a skilled observer can be reliable in a small number of observations.

 

On some things, yes.  But particularly on defense you need the less common plays to really tell what a guy can or can't do.  Your average LF in 6 games probably isn't going to have an opportunity to show you much at all unless you get lucky.  

 

A lot of the defensive statistics take this into account as well, it's those uncommon plays that separate the "great" from the "good" from the "ok" from the "is your DH spot flexible"

[biggentleben]

On some things, yes. But particularly on defense you need the less common plays to really tell what a guy can or can't do. Your average LF in 6 games probably isn't going to have an opportunity to show you much at all unless you get lucky.

 

A lot of the defensive statistics take this into account as well, it's those uncommon plays that separate the "great" from the "good" from the "ok" from the "is your DH spot flexible"

That's where video scouting in my case gives me a good chance to really see that stuff. I can review stats and find ball placement data on hits and outs and watch how the guy responded. Showing up live for a handful of games is still random. Being able to know the days you're going to see a hitter work 30 pitches over the course of a day is a great day to see his ability to spoil pitches. Being able to use stats and game summaries to intentionally watch a guy gives you the chance to see a guy's top end and struggles both intentionally.

[TheLeviathan]

That's a smart way to scout Ben.

[biggentleben]

That's a smart way to scout Ben.

And on a pro level, it's a lot of what's done. Where I struggle vs. the guy at the game is watching the entire play. I rely on Milb.tv's feed, so many times its three to five broadcast cameras on the game instead of ten times that at an average MLB game. So when a ball goes to center, I see the ball off the bat and the eventual play as the ball lands, rarely can I see things like the read off the bat from the center fielder, how the ball is fading, and how runners reacted right away to the ball in air that could show great or poor natural instincts based on that first step. Those nuances require looking intentionally at video over and over to see the few times such things make the video by chance whereas the scout at agame could maybe catch that in the one viewing. At the pro level, they have both the guy at the game and the guy watching video.

 

We're working on a page for all "significant" minor leaguers for the site I write for which will include video, stats, and my scouting reports as they're done. Once that master page is up and publicly viewable, I'll link it so folks can take a look at what I see when I watch a game. I have a report each day coming out this week, then back to two per week until the season starts, at which point my focus turns to the action of the field. I'm coming to both Twins/Braves games in late July, and you can bet my seats will be strategically chosen. I've already got low behind home plate for Wednesday night.

[jokin]

 

I appreciate the sentiment, but I wasn't implying the Twins don't read it, I was just contradicting the idea that it wasn't worth reading. My guess is it is a commonly bookmarked website among front office personnel league wide, including the Twins.

 

Yep, no disagreement.

 

My point is who is bookmarking it, who actually reads it consistently, who understands some of the important implications, and finally, who takes action to integrate and employ the data most effectively.

 

I'd like the Twins to have a story at least once or twice during this upcoming run with this solid core group that contains in the headline a word or phrase such as: "innovative", "intrepid", "forward-thinking", "disciplined reliance on statistical analysis", or even just "baseball shibboleth buster".

[biggentleben]

We're still working on the mass page that will have all my reports in one locale, but here's one example of what I've done. Full disclosure, hitting is absolutely my weaker point in evaluating a player. Give me pitchers any day!

 

Scouting report on Rio Ruiz