Klaw chat comments

[Dance with Disco Dan]

I think KLAW's push back on the original question (and mine as well) is the use of the term "bust."   Not to be hung up on semantics but, in my mind, there can be a real distinction between a player that does not live up to the expectations of his draft position and one that is a true bust.   In some cases, both statements can be true about a player (e.g. - Matt Bush, Josh Vitters, Tim Beckham, etc.).   In other cases, the player may not be what you'd want and expect from his draft position but, in no fair analysis, is the player a bust (e.g. - Brandon Morrow, Brian Matusz, Trevor Bauer, etc.).

 

I think its very fair at this point to question whether Stewart will become an elite starter like the Twins hoped when he was drafted 4th overall.   And, if he doesn't, I will be among those that are disappointed that such a premium draft choice did not result in a premium player.   I also think its very premature to start connecting Stewart's name to the term bust.   He was league average across most metrics in High-A (not Ks however) as a 20-year old that did a stint on the DL for elbow issues and came back to start 15 more games.   He also displayed some sort of power two-seamer that induces an elite amount of ground balls.   We'll all know more next season as Stewart moves up to AA but, even then, we won't know whether the term bust is appropriate for many years.

 

Take Trevor Plouffe as an example.   He was drafted in the first round in 2004 (20th overall) and did not establish himself as an MLB-regular until 2012.   As a 20-year old in his third professional season, he posted a slash-line of .236/.333/.347/.681 in High-A which was slightly below league average across the board.  Was the "bust" label appropriate at that time? Flash forward to 2015 and Plouffe is an established starting MLBer that has averaged 2.7 WAR over the last three seasons.   He's maybe not the player we hoped he'd be on draft day but he's far from a bust.

 

The expectations for a 4th overall pick are clearly much higher than the expectations for a 20th overall pick.   But, it seems that the term "bust" is often being used as short hand for "never-going-to-produce-at-a-level-commensurate-with-his-draft-position."   Labeling a prospect a bust at Stewart's stage of career makes me think we've all forgotten what a bust truly is - see e.g. Ryan Mills, B.J Garbe, Adam Johnson, and Matt Moses.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe we see Stewart in the bullpen this year. That should keep his fb velocity up, and keep him from tiring later in games (if that's what's happening).

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Good callbacks.

 

It's not entirely out of the realm of possibilities that I mis-remember or bought into felonious draft hype regarding his fastball.

 

I like the previous mentions of his power slider, but this summer I was under the impression from our posters in the know (I believe you are among them)  that his slider was actually poor and it did not look like it was improving, meanwhile his fastball generally sat 92-93.

I've might have seen Kohl throw the most of anyone here (from GCL, Extended Spring, Hi A Ft Myers) and it's evident that his mechanics have evolved over that time.  This season, his release point at the beginning of the year was inconsistent but improved in the second half.  His FB was usually around 91-93mph as he threw a sinker more often.  His changeup took a step forward but the slider was off for most of the season, don't know why; have to ask him.  Everyone's concentrating on his low K rate, but he did have one of the best groundball rates in the MiLB for a starter, and gave up low number of hard hit balls -  all things that are very encouraging.

 

[jimmer]

 

 Everyone's concentrating on his low K rate, but he did have one of the best groundball rates in the MiLB for a starter, and gave up low number of hard hit balls -  all things that are very encouraging.

Sounds like a classic Twins style pitcher to me.

[Willihammer]

Shoulder soreness in 2013, again in 2014, elbow in 2015, declining K-rate, changing mechanics...

 

is he hurt or in the process or pitching himself into an injury?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Shoulder soreness in 2013, again in 2014, elbow in 2015, declining K-rate, changing mechanics...

 

is he hurt or in the process or pitching himself into an injury?

 

Honestly at this point, this concerns me more than anything else.  He's had elbow/shoulder issues every year.  There may not be something structurally wrong per say (yet), but it doesn't appear that his arm/shoulder are holding up that well to major league workloads.

 

I get the conerns about the K rate.  Then again, we all knew he wasn't a polished pitcher when he was drafted.  That takes time.  He's got 2 more seasons till he's 40 man eligible and then 3 options at that point.  The Twins have plenty of time to turn him into a decent pitcher.   Whether he turns into that front of the rotation guy, we don't know, but based on what I'm reading if he gets there, he's likely to be more the Brandon Webb (much less Ks, not necessarily b/c the numbers line up) type ace than the Clayton Kershaw type. 

[gunnarthor]

On Stewart it's worth remembering how much fans wanted the Twins to start drafting guys like him - HS pitchers with huge ceilings.  But those guys are risks and they don't always pan out.  That's why it's risky to take a HS arm, period.  The same risk seems to be working out pretty well with Berrios.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Shoulder soreness in 2013, again in 2014, elbow in 2015, declining K-rate, changing mechanics...

 

is he hurt or in the process or pitching himself into an injury?

I wouldn't be surprised if he's either.  As a Chiropractor, I see shoulder issues in various ages and to varying degrees of severity.  I've also seen where minor issues such as tenderness evolve into shoulder impingement that turn into rotator cuff damage.  The following is just my own speculation:

 

On the eye test alone, I'd say Kohl has a "rolled right shoulder" which can mean nothing or could be precursor for a snowball of other shoulder/arm issues.  But I wouldn't be shocked that he has scapular dyskinesis (shoulder blade doesn't move right), in fact 76% of college athletes have some form of dyskinesis - a good portion aymptomatic.  The most common origin of scapular dyskinesis is due to muscular imbalance - tight pec and bicep muscles create an increased pull on the coracoid process.  Which in turn creates weak and elongated lower traps and serratus anterior.  

 

The longer the mechanics are altered, the more it leads into serious injury.  The usual sequela is the lessening of the subacromial space which then leads to decreased rotator cuff strength followed by impingement syndrome and finally a rotator cuff tear.  Like I said just pure speculation based off posture and small injury history sample, but I wouldn't be surprised

 

[Willihammer]

I wouldn't be surprised if he's either.  As a Chiropractor, I see shoulder issues in various ages and to varying degrees of severity.  I've also seen where minor issues such as tenderness evolve into shoulder impingement that turn into rotator cuff damage.  The following is just my own speculation:

 

On the eye test alone, I'd say Kohl has a "rolled right shoulder" which can mean nothing or could be precursor for a snowball of other shoulder/arm issues.  But I wouldn't be shocked that he has scapular dyskinesis (shoulder blade doesn't move right), in fact 76% of college athletes have some form of dyskinesis - a good portion aymptomatic.  The most common origin of scapular dyskinesis is due to muscular imbalance - tight pec and bicep muscles create an increased pull on the coracoid process.  Which in turn creates weak and elongated lower traps and serratus anterior.  

 

The longer the mechanics are altered, the more it leads into serious injury.  The usual sequela is the lessening of the subacromial space which then leads to decreased rotator cuff strength followed by impingement syndrome and finally a rotator cuff tear.  Like I said just pure speculation based off posture and small injury history sample, but I wouldn't be surprised

 

Thanks, that is great info. What do you recommend for dyskinesis? Back and lat strengthening perhaps?

 

Can you elaborate on Stewart's mechanical changes?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Thanks, that is great info. What do you recommend for dyskinesis? Back and lat strengthening perhaps?

Can you elaborate on Stewart's mechanical changes?

First part is identifying the cause of the dyskinesis, if it's the more common type of muscular imbalance then step one is stretching and/or soft tissue manipulation (deep trigger points, active release technique, Graston, etc) to the pec, biceps, upper trap, levator scapular.  The second step is strengthening the middle and lower traps as well as serratus anterior with exercises such as YTWL Scapular Depression, Low row with scapular depression, Brugger's posture with a resist band, etc.  I'd also check out the rest of the distal kinetic chain (thoracic hyperkyphosis, hip abductors, and core) for dysfuction/weakness as the they can be contributors as well to the Scapular Dyskinesis.

 

Regarding Stewart's mechanics change over the last couple of seasons, the first thing I've seen are the hips coming open sooner and sooner.  The sooner it's open, the less forward momentum thus decreasing velocity because the shoulder and arm are brought forward sooner and you get less of a "whip motion".  My other postulation is that his scapula isn't retracting as much as it used to which in turn is less energy stored up for the "whip motion".  If the shoulder muscles are imbalanced it puts more and more strain and stress on the labrum and rotator cuff muscles to hold the joint in place.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

On Stewart it's worth remembering how much fans wanted the Twins to start drafting guys like him - HS pitchers with huge ceilings.  But those guys are risks and they don't always pan out.  That's why it's risky to take a HS arm, period.  The same risk seems to be working out pretty well with Berrios.

 

I remember being a bit surprised when Sickles to Frasier over Stewart in his shadow league.  Not sure I agreed with the selection given that he needed high end pitching too, but I do think this statement does recognize something that we don't see often.  Drafting HS pitchers is very risky.  Most don't make it.  The ones that do tend to be better than their college counterparts.  At 4 overall, the Twins assumed a lot of risk.  That isn't a bad thing, there's upside there, but sometimes that's what you get when you want it.  It's probably why they chose Jay this year over Allard. Similar upsides with a lot less risk.