Berardino: Twins close to extension with Dozier

[laloesch]

Which to me makes sense.  Seems odd that we haven't heard boo in about five days.

 

I agree.  Makes no sense to me either for the Twins to negotiate with Dozier this far in advance of arbitration. Next year maybe, 2017 for sure.

[jimmer]

 

 

You brought up Span, which only strengthens my point. My memory is hazy here and I could be wrong but I'm almost positive Span signed a contract that bought out one FA year with one team option year after that.

Speaking of one of my favorite Twins in recent memory, Denard Span is likely to miss the beginning of the season after having core surgery.  This is after he had surgery on his sports hernia in December.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I just saw that. Bummer. The guy needs a good year going into free agency and I've always liked Span.

[jimmer]

I just saw that. Bummer. The guy needs a good year going into free agency and I've always liked Span.

I know it doesn't make sense, but I kind of hope we can get him back.  He's still fairly young and playing at a decent a good level. Pipe dream, I'm sure, with the youth movement coming in, but one can hope.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I know it doesn't make sense, but I kind of hope we can get him back.  He's still fairly young and playing at a decent a good level. Pipe dream, I'm sure, with the youth movement coming in, but one can hope.

Carlos Gomez has to come back on a Twins reunion tour before we can consider Span. There's a natural order to these things.

[jimmer]

Carlos Gomez has to come back on a Twins reunion tour before we can consider Span. There's a natural order to these things.

Natural order indeed. HAHA!!

 

Now that he's learned how to throw to the right base and isn't airmailing throws into the stands, yeah it'd be great to have him back.  He's turned into a star though, he'd be pricey.  I believe he had to leave here to reach his full offensive potential.   Wasn't as sad to see him go as I was Span and I was excited about the return for Gomez.

 

Then we had to go and trade Hardy.

[kab21]

Okay, we'll just have to disagree here but... When is the last time we saw a 5 WAR player sign a contract that doesn't buy out FA years with guaranteed money but gives the team two options?

 

I can't recall it happening. One guaranteed year buyout with one team option, yeah... but I can't remember any deals with only two team options. That in itself says a lot about whether Dozier would accept that deal.

 

You brought up Span, which only strengthens my point. My memory is hazy here and I could be wrong but I'm almost positive Span signed a contract that bought out one FA year with one team option year after that.

Span was coming off of a 3.9 WAR season and he currently has 6.111 years of service.  This was his first year that he could have become a FA.  So this is very comparable to Dozier except they locked up Span one year earlier than Dozier is at now.

 

Two option years is rare for any kind of contract but it has happened.  Carl Crawford had his first two FA years bought out with team options.  Longoria's contract is even more famous and had 2 FA years bought out but that was rare circumstances (signed before he played a MLB game).  I'm sure there are other examples but I really don't care to go around and look for more examples.

[laloesch]

While i understand the WAR justification for an extension and he has been fairly solid at 2nd defensively, why do we lock him up through arbitration years?

 

He’s not a super star in the making batting in the low .240's and his salary through arbitration won’t be significantly higher than signing him to an extension now. Furthermore, locking him up through arbitration provides little value in a trade situation as he’s still under team control for the same period.

 

2014 Before and After All Star Break

.242/.340/.436 – OPS .776, 12.3% BB Rate, 18.6% K Rate, .194 ISO (Driver of OPS = highly unsustainable HR Rate + unsustainable BB rate)

.244/.352/.387 – OPS .739, 13.1% BB Rate, 17.7% K Rate, .143 ISO 

 

Fans tend to forget that Dozier has been very inconsistent at the plate throughout his career. His approach and batting style have changed over and over again as he's searched for the right formula to be a legitimate MLB hitter.  This is illustrated by the erratic batting averages as he rose from GCL in 2009 to ROC 2011/2012. 

 

Dozier’s power is borderline and his ISO is driven by his extreme tendency to pull the ball (something players tend to do at the end of their careers), but that’s also why his average is awful. From 2011 in AA New Britain through 2013, he sat at a maximum BB rate of 8.2% before jumping to 12.6% last year, and it’s not like he showed the eye in 2013 or even in the 2nd half of 2013 (the first glimpse he might belong in MLB).

 

The fact of the matter is that Dozier has just as much track record as a AAAA player as he does a MLB starter.  And while his 2014 OPS of .762 and OBP of .345 is absolutely intoxicating to some fans, it's probably a CAREER year that he will never come close to duplicating again.  If he continues to pull the ball like he does, opposing teams will catch onto him, similar to what happened to Lew Ford.

 

He’s not the kind of player the Twins need to be in a rush to lock up right now.  Let him play another year before making a decision. 

[KirbyHawk75]

I like Dozier.. I think he is a good player.  But, I hope the Twins wait another year before they sign him long term.  He is under team control for a couple of more years, so they are not going to lose him right now.