E Santana and the Twins, just for perspective and fun

[DocBauer]

There has certainly been a lot of hope, thought and debate about the Twins signing a FA SP for 2015. And one name that has been brought up a lot is Ervin Santana. I believe his name comes up for two primary reasons: 1) he would appear more affordable in dollars and years that the "top tier" FA options like Lester and Scherzer and others and 2) the Twins were tied to Santana last off season and actually made at least a cursory run at him. I find him an intriguing possibility and decided to take a closer look.

 

I broke down Santana's last 7 seasons, roughly, for perspective. He hasn't exactly been a model of consistency in the W-L column, but his peripherals in a few of his seasons indicated he pitched well enough for a better record than he ended up with. Over the past 7 seasons he has averaged 12 wins and 10 losses, has averaged 199 IP per, and has pitched 190 innings plus 6 of those 7 seasons. Twice he won 16 games, 17 once.

 

For comparison sake, I also examined Nolasco. In Nolasco's case, I examined the 6 years BEFORE this season as it was largely a lost season due to injury. Over those 6 seasons, he proved to be a greater model of consistency year to year in the win column, though never experienced the highs of Santana. Still over those 6 seasons he averaged 13 wins and 10 losses with an average of 191 2/3 IP, and has pitched 185 plus innings 5 times, 190 plus 4 times.

 

Each had a down year, 2009 for Santana, 2010 for Nolasco, where their starts and IP took a dive. So that equals out.

 

The whole point is that Santana might have had a couple higher highs, Nolasco may have been more overall consistent, (maybe more impressive playing for some bad Miami teams), but the overall production of these two veterans is very, very comparable. Overall, is Santana perhaps the more potentially explosive and dynamic of the two? Probably. But I also think this offers an interesting perspective for those who are so down on Nolasco after this last season. I think it's important to guard against disappointment vs potential.

 

Comparing Santana's overall numbers in regard to 2013 vs 2014, pitching for the Royals and the Braves respectably, he started one more game for KC in 2013 than he did for Atlanta in 2014, but other than SO's, his numbers for KC in '13 were all better, though his wins were 14 to 9 in favor of this season. This all despite pitching in what is generally considered an "easier" league to pitch in. Not a knock on Santana, who I think could be an awesome fit for the Twins in 2015, rather, a real hope for Nolasco to return to form next season, and what each could mean to the Twins next season if they pulled the trigger.

 

Could Santana have won 14 games were he with the Twins in 2013, consider we did take a shot? We'll never know. But Gibson won 13 and Hughes won 16. Our offense was solid, though sometimes inconsistent in its sporadic nature, and the pen did fade the last third of the season. But could Santana's presence have saved the pen some? I think that's entirely possible.

 

For a moment, let's play with Santana and his 14 wins and 196 IP being with the Twins. And let's take it one more step and just say he hit his 7 year average of 12 wins. And we'll go one step further and have a healthy Nolasco and his 6 year average of 13 wins. Between those two, and Hughes, and Gibson, Correia while with the Twins, and May's time after Correia, and the Twins would have 62 wins from their starting rotation with 3 SP eclipsing the 190 IP mark, and a 4th just shy of 180.

 

Yes this is pure fantasy. And I don't know that you could ever call Hughes or Santana an ACE pitcher, though they both have the ability to be dominant at times. But I also think this shows just how close the Twins could be to a winning club with a pitcher of Santana's ability, (though not an ace), combined with what we have, along with Nolasco just healthy and pitching to normal levels.

 

Like I said, just for fun.