1 hour ago, P Meyer said:

1 hour ago, P Meyer said:

Selling high on an asset when you know you aren't going to keep it long term does not equal "tearing it down".  If the Twins FO feels like payroll will not permit re-signing Joe then trading him at a peak is the most prudent move. It's a good process and is up to your organization to stick the landing by taking those pieces and making them collectively better.

Maybe I need to be more precise.  My point is, the Twins aren't going to go anywhere outside of 2-5 games +.500 if they don't have enough good pitching.   They won't win enough games to get a good seed and they won't compete if they do squeak into the playoffs.

Is it really so binary as -- any other outcome than a deep playoff run sucks?   Well, yes, IMO, but I'm OK with people disagreeing on that point.  But if you get rid of 1 of your 2 solid pitchers, you're saying we're gonna hover at average, a little better, or maybe much worse and that's OK.  It's not OK with me.  It might be perfectly OK for ownership and the front office.

I'd rather go for broke and do a big rebuild than sit at 3 games +/- .500 every year and squeak into the playoffs and lose in the first round every 3-5 years.

2 hours ago, Julian Bernick said:

Maybe I need to be more precise.  My point is, the Twins aren't going to go anywhere outside of 2-5 games +.500 if they don't have enough good pitching.   They won't win enough games to get a good seed and they won't compete if they do squeak into the playoffs.

Is it really so binary as -- any other outcome than a deep playoff run sucks?   Well, yes, IMO, but I'm OK with people disagreeing on that point.  But if you get rid of 1 of your 2 solid pitchers, you're saying we're gonna hover at average, a little better, or maybe much worse and that's OK.  It's not OK with me.  It might be perfectly OK for ownership and the front office.

I'd rather go for broke and do a big rebuild than sit at 3 games +/- .500 every year and squeak into the playoffs and lose in the first round every 3-5 years.

This is a fair perspective, but I think this team kinda is what it is with Joe Ryan for the next two seasons. The Twins likely aren't going increase payroll in 2026 or 2027. Unless they can find a way to ship Correa, they aren't going to have payroll flexibility to add players who should have a large impact. Because of these things, they don't seem to financially be in a spot to re-sign Ryan after 2027. So, if the idea is deep playoff run or bust, trading Ryan appears to be the best path to getting there as long as Correa is on the books.

I hate getting rid of our best players but if we can't keep them, and the best hope for an increase in talent is at AA and AAA, 2026 and 2027 aren't likely going to produce a contender. 

31 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

This is a fair perspective, but I think this team kinda is what it is with Joe Ryan for the next two seasons. The Twins likely aren't going increase payroll in 2026 or 2027. Unless they can find a way to ship Correa, they aren't going to have payroll flexibility to add players who should have a large impact. Because of these things, they don't seem to financially be in a spot to re-sign Ryan after 2027. So, if the idea is deep playoff run or bust, trading Ryan appears to be the best path to getting there as long as Correa is on the books.

 

I guess I work from the assumption that we are carrying Correa through 2028.  We will not get any pitcher via free-agency or trades who will rival Joe Ryan before the end of 2028.  So how would trading Ryan put us in position for a serious (non-squeaker) playoff push before then?   My base assumption is that playoff series are won through really strong pitching.

IMO, the real way to make the team better in the short term is to trade Correa, eat a lot of the $$ but get prospects...  someone gets a solid defensive veteran SS with WS experience at relatively cheap cost and we hopefully get some worthy near-ready prospects since we'll eat most of the ****** contract.  

1 hour ago, Julian Bernick said:

I guess I work from the assumption that we are carrying Correa through 2028.  We will not get any pitcher via free-agency or trades who will rival Joe Ryan before the end of 2028.  So how would trading Ryan put us in position for a serious (non-squeaker) playoff push before then?   My base assumption is that playoff series are won through really strong pitching.

IMO, the real way to make the team better in the short term is to trade Correa, eat a lot of the $$ but get prospects...  someone gets a solid defensive veteran SS with WS experience at relatively cheap cost and we hopefully get some worthy near-ready prospects since we'll eat most of the ****** contract.  

The argument is that as long as the Twins are carrying Correa's contract, they aren't competing in 26 or 27 with or without Ryan. And Correa's contract would prohibit the Twins from re-signing him. So, you sell high and be mediocre in 26 and 27 OR you keep him and be mediocre in 26 and 27. With selling high, at least you have something once he is gone.

I agree that the best way to compete is to trade Correa, but no team would give you anything for him. It would just be a salary dump if he decided to waive his no trade (which I am pretty sure he has).

3 hours ago, P Meyer said:

The argument is that as long as the Twins are carrying Correa's contract, they aren't competing in 26 or 27 with or without Ryan. And Correa's contract would prohibit the Twins from re-signing him. So, you sell high and be mediocre in 26 and 27 OR you keep him and be mediocre in 26 and 27. With selling high, at least you have something once he is gone.

 

I mostly agree with you but where we part ways is whether to sell him High and be mediocre (No!) or sell him high and just get on with rebuilding, since who cares if you're mediocre or lousy for the next 2-3 years.  Sell Duran, Jax, Castro and Bader high while you're at it and take whatever you can get for Francey.