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Turning the Tide: Twins Showing Signs of Life


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The Minnesota Twins are slowly climbing back to .500 on the season (16-20). This slow start has been attributed to injuries, inconsistencies in the lineup, and a few bullpen hiccups. With the weather warming up and the Twins getting to play some lighter competition, they have slowly turned the corner on their painful start to the season. 

 

Griffin Jax started the season with a few blown saves and two bad losses as he saw his ERA balloon to over 11. After his last loss against Atlanta, he has put together six scoreless appearances before giving up a solo home run to Wilyer Abreu on Sunday; he still picked up his ninth hold of the year. Griffin still ranks in the top 4% of all pitchers in K%, Whiff%, and Chase Rate. Griffin has gotten over his slow start and will likely keep his late-inning role the rest of the way. The good thing is the Twins will have options with Columbe, Sands, and Stewart should he struggle more.

Jorge Alcala has continued to have a disappointing season. With numbers to forget, we have already seen Coach Rocco Baldelli decrease Alcala's role. You might want to sit down for these numbers. This year, Alcala has given up 17 H, 13 ER, walked 10, and struck out 13 over 13 1/3 innings. His walk rate is among the highest of any reliever in the league. He's also registered a high Avg. EV (86.0) and a Hard Hit% % of (31.7). He can only get better. You would assume he can settle down and throw strikes in low-leverage situations, but if not, you might see him shipped back to St. Paul when Michael Tonkin returns from rehab. The Twins have a lot of other options if Alcala continues to struggle. They have a lefty in Funderburk that could give them some innings, Travis Adams, Darren McCaughan, or could bring up their two main starters, Zebby Mathews and David Festa, for some experience. All four of these pitchers have done well in Triple-A this year.

 

Chris Paddack had one of the worst starts of his career, giving up nine earned runs to a terrible Chicago White Sox lineup and three more runs in only four innings pitched against a Houston Astros team that has also struggled to score runs. As much as Twins fans don't care for Paddack, he has bounced back nicely.

 

Over his last five starts, he has only given up eight earned runs; while Paddack is your definition of a pitch-to-contact pitcher, he has managed well through his last five starts, suitable for a 2.88 ERA. He doesn't do anything significant but is a serviceable 4th or 5th option. He will need to cut down on the walks, as it has doubled from last year, 16 BB in 32 1/3 innings this year. His WHIP will be anywhere from 1.35-1.45, but could increase if he continues to walk batters. Paddack will also need to improve how he pitches on the road; he's given up 14 ER in four starts away from Target Field and six earned runs in three starts at home.

 

The hitting has been the most prominent sore spot for the Twins most of the season, but it has improved lately. After batting under .200 for about a month, Carlos Correa has finally shown some life at the plate. Over his last 10 games, Correa has been batting .349, with six multi-hit games. The two concerning statistics are that he only has two home runs and doesn't walk much. Correa has seen his average jump from .46 points to .233, and his OPS is almost up .100 points. Twins fans would like more power from Correa and a better ability to hit the ball in the gaps for extra bases.

Ryan Jeffers has also been hot in his last 10 games. Hitting .355 with five extra-base hits. His slash line is respectable for a catcher: .277/.358/.426 OPS of .784. He's reduced his K% from 20.2 to 17%, significantly improving at hitting changeups and breaking balls. Like Correa, you would think the power will come with only two long balls this year after hitting 21 taters last year, which was in the top 5 in the league at the catcher position.

 

Harrison Bader has also been swinging a hot bat, going 12-32 (.375 BA) over his last 10 games, raising his average to .280. Bader also carries an eight-game hitting streak. He's not a big power hitter but with a .362 OBP (he would be top-20 for all outfielders, but he comes up just short on qualified at-bats). He has proven so far that he can get on base without hitting the long ball, and his elite defense will essentially keep him in the lineup or as a defensive replacement if he doesn't start.

 

It will be interesting to see what the Twins do in the outfield once Wallner returns. Will they go with a Bader, Buxton, Wallner outfield and mix in Larnach? If they go with the first option, that would not only give the Twins one of the best outfields in baseball fielding-wise, but it would also be the best option hitting-wise, barring one of those guys doesn't get traded if the Twins fall farther out of the playoffs. It's good to have options.

 

Byron Buxton has quietly been one of MLB's best slugging outfielders. He ranks in the top 10 outfielders in SLG% (.519) and top 20 in OPS (.819). Considering Byron doesn't walk much due to his aggressive approach, he doesn't light it up in the OBP category to help his OPS. Buxton ranks in the top 10% in Barrel% (16.1) and Hard-Hit%(56.3). he also has a nice six-game hitting streak where his average has jumped up nicely to a respectable .267.

 

 

 

His 10 multi-hit games are tied for the 7th most in all of baseball. Put that with his great defense and ability to steal bases again, currently 7-7 on the season, and has the fastest sprint speed in the league (30.2), the Twins could be on the verge of a bigger offensive surge. He is still at the top of the league in strikeout (32.9) and BB (3.6), but this is who Buxton is: an aggressive hitter when he makes contact, which results in productive at-bats for Byron. Can Byron stay healthy? That is his most significant question, as he has only played over 100 games twice in his 10 years as a Twin.

 

With Royce Lewis and Willi Castro back, it should provide more chances for this Twins lineup to score more runs. Castro provides a great approach at the plate, and his versatility in playing multiple positions gives the Twins an advantage not many teams have. Lewis missed 58 games in 2013 with left oblique and hamstring strains and 81 games last year with a right quad strain and an adductor strain. He also missed the first 35 games this year with a left hamstring strain. Like Buxton, can Lewis stay healthy? If the Twins want to compete, he will be a critical piece of the lineup.

 

"I'm tired of being the guy on the IL," Lewis said. "Seems like these injury bugs; they just stick on one guy for a while. Hopefully, I got mine off."

 

Since the middle of April, the Twins have gone from the bottom of the league in almost every hitting category to the middle of the pack and still hold a +9 run differential, mainly because of the great starting pitching. They are 16-20 winners of their last seven out of eleven games and sit 6.5 games out of first place in the American League Central Division.

 

Now, most people will attribute the Twins' recent hitting success to playing bad teams and bad opposing pitching, but you have to give the Twins credit for improving and hanging in there despite the lack of backing from the front office. Weather could be a factor, but I have always said that other teams must also hit in cold weather.

 

If the Twins can continue this hot trend, and some other hitters step up and combine that with the way the starting pitching has done so far, we could see a big winning streak or even six out of ten or seven out of ten. It's not out of the question that the Twins could go on a run, but they need to do it now if they want to prove to the front office not to trade everyone at the deadline.

6 Comments


Recommended Comments

Muppet

Posted

They need to beat the bad teams, and they have. They took 2 of 3 from Boston, which seems to be an OK to good team. But man I'd feel a whole lot better about their recent success if they had just taken one more from Cleveland. 

stringer bell

Posted

If the Twins want to improve their chances of making the playoffs, they need to improve in their division, which currently has a net winning record. They are 3-8 against Detroit, Cleveland and KC. They need to just about reverse that to make a significant move in the division. They also need to play much better on the road (6-14 thus far).

The team is pretty healthy right now, with only Wallner out from the projected starters and only Tonkin out from the rostered pitchers. Alcalá can't be optioned without his permission, so if they want to send him to AAA, they would have to DFA him. I would guess that someone would take a flyer on his arm despite poor results this year.

LambchoP

Posted

Alcala is quickly becoming a liability, and when Tonkin is ready to be activated I think some kind of move will be made. 

stringer bell

Posted

Checking back to this blog entry after four straight wins. Continued good play would put the Twins in line for at least a wild card. Yes, the division is pretty strong and there are three teams in front of them, but they aren't buried. The coming schedule includes Baltimore and Milwaukee before the Twins get divisional opponents. 

The team is being carried by the pitching staff. The starters have been outstanding and the bullpen has mostly been solid. Matthews, Festa and perhaps Morris appear ready in AAA. Hitting and fielding have not been consistent, but both have been better of late.

Richie the Rally Goat

Posted

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Checking back to this blog entry after four straight wins. Continued good play would put the Twins in line for at least a wild card. Yes, the division is pretty strong and there are three teams in front of them, but they aren't buried. The coming schedule includes Baltimore and Milwaukee before the Twins get divisional opponents. 

The team is being carried by the pitching staff. The starters have been outstanding and the bullpen has mostly been solid. Matthews, Festa and perhaps Morris appear ready in AAA. Hitting and fielding have not been consistent, but both have been better of late.

139 runs allowed on the season 5th best MLB wide. Yes pitching, especially starting pitching, also this is a heavy flyball pitching team 44% ranked 3rd in MLB and has a MUCH improved outfield. I was skeptical of Bader, but happy he’s contributing well. Actually having left fielders with wheels in TF’s spacious LF is a good thing. More important than I have credit previously.

laloesch

Posted

On 5/11/2025 at 8:37 AM, stringer bell said:

Checking back to this blog entry after four straight wins. Continued good play would put the Twins in line for at least a wild card. Yes, the division is pretty strong and there are three teams in front of them, but they aren't buried. The coming schedule includes Baltimore and Milwaukee before the Twins get divisional opponents. 

The team is being carried by the pitching staff. The starters have been outstanding and the bullpen has mostly been solid. Matthews, Festa and perhaps Morris appear ready in AAA. Hitting and fielding have not been consistent, but both have been better of late.

Yes.  I would still like to see them move Paddack at some point for a bat, if possible. 

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