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Has Joe Ryan vaulted himself into ace status?


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Joe Ryan came into the 2025 season with something to prove after his injury-shortened season last year. Ryan made 23 starts in 2024, going 7-7 with an ERA of 3.60 before cutting his season short with a right shoulder strain. He has been one of the most important pitchers in the rotation since making his debut in 2021. 

In the 2025 season, Ryan had been nothing short of dominant. Ryan has a nice five-pitch repertoire, which he features the four-seam fastball and sweeper 73% of the time. His fastball has averaged 93 MPH with 18 inches of movement. These two figures have allowed Joe to be at the top of the league in run value (6). The hitters haven't figured out how to successfully hit his fastball as he's holding batters to a .189 BA when throwing it. 

Ryan has always had a great fastball in getting hitters out and causing them to make weak contact. He's on pace to have a better run value than last year, when he finished in the top 5% when throwing his 4-seam fastball.

This year, he has tweaked his sweeper by adding more vertical drop from 39.2 inches to 43.6. Joe has also increased his spin rate on the sweeper to 68%, resulting in a 41.3 Whiff%. He's also relying on his sweeper to put away hitters; Increased Whiff% on both pitches has been an enormous strength. It also allows him to mix in his great fastball when needed.

 

 

Ryan is technically the #2 pitcher on the Twins' starting staff, but he deserves to be #1, not just on the Twins but on many other teams needing starting pitching. Not many teams have a #2 starter putting up numbers like Joe has through his first seven starts

Ryan's consistently throwing strikes and reliance on compelling secondary pitches help him gain an advantage over hitters. He has put up some more elite numbers across the league in his first seven starts despite having the seventh-worst run support in all of baseball (2.29).

 

Although Ryan threw some shade at the Twins hitters a few starts ago by saying he would like more time between innings. "It would be nice to have a little bit more time between innings," he said via the Minnesota Star Tribune's Bobby Nightengale. “I turned around and got my water bottle, and I was running back out there real quick. Like a minute or two would be nice.   The run support hasn't bothered the way he throws or his overall game plan when out on the mound. He still comes out hitting his spots, mixing in pitches, and throwing strikes, though it's frustrating not getting wins after throwing some of the gems he has this year.

 

Ryan also ranks top 25 in ERA (2.93), top 15 in K's (47), top 10 in K/9 (10.6), tied 8th in WAR (1.2), 6th in WHIP (0.90), and amazingly top 5 in BB% (3.2).

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These numbers suggest ace status; one thinks he will only get better at 28. Ryan has looked like he can pitch with the other aces in the league. He is 2-2 this year with a 2.93 ERA over 40 innings. There's also the question of whether management will look to trade Ryan? With the Twins not playing like a playoff team, and the owners not looking to improve much or wanting to compete, that has to be in the minds of us Twins fans. You would think they would want to hold on to Joe Ryan since he has come up through the organization from day one and has developed into a great pitcher. You never know what the Pohlads will do.

 

His next start will be against the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday at Target Field, where he's only given up five runs in his three starts at home. Ryan will look to keep his strong start going against an Orioles team that ranks near the bottom in batting average, hits, and runs.

3 Comments


Recommended Comments

LambchoP

Posted

If he keeps pitching like he has been he might be one of the Twins' only all stars this year. Pablo and Ryan are probably our only potential all stars so far...

Whitey333

Posted

Ryan has pitched great.  Do we need to analyze the validity in calling him an ace?  Does it matter?  Also he came to us in a trade with Tampa Bay.  I don't think he's been with the Twins organization since day one.  He has been awesome.  Ace status or not.

Otaknam

Posted

My definition of an ace is someone who dominates 60 % of the time, has above average starts 30%, and has one below average start or clunker 10% of the starts. Like a Verlander or Roger Clemons. An ace usually has a fastball that ticks above 96-97 mph.  BY my definition Ryan is a number two starter, not an ace. But if he keeps pitching like this who knows what he can accomplish? His command is fantastic, and that sweeper!

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