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Gray declines QO


Doctor Gast

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First, I congratulate Sonny Gray for coming in 2nd in the CY & thank you for what you accomplished as a Twin. As expected Gray turned down the Twins QO. In this thread I like to show how  Gray should appreciate the Twins.

Below is a '21 comparison between Gray & Mahle before the '22 offseason

 

Name G GS W L PCT ERA SV IP H ER R HR BB SO
                             
Sonny Gray 26 26 7 9 .438 4.19 0 135.1 115 63 67 19 50 155
                             
Tyler Mahle 33 33 13 6 .684 3.75 0 180.0 158 75 78 24 64 210

Here we see that Mahle was a better pitcher than Gray going into the '22 off season. Better record, better ERA & pitched more innings.

In the 1st half of the '22 season, Gray pitched 63 innings & Mahle pitched 96 innings. The Reds pushed Mahle & his arm fell off (figuratively speaking) when the Twins got him.

Let's supposed that roles were switched that Mahle was traded in the offseason to the Twins & Sonny stayed with Reds to be traded at the deadline. With the Reds wanting to showcase Gray they'd (with Gray's blessing) over-stretch him like Mahle. I'd imagine that Gray's arm would also fall off & prematurely ruin his chances to have anything to show coming into free agency, let alone 2nd in the CY. It'd be very hard to forecast what Mahle could have accomplished if he was properly managed by the Twins if he was traded in the off season. But he could have been just as good.

So Gray has a lot to thank the Twins for properly managing him against his stern grievances. And how grateful do you think Sonny should be?

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Good post. A couple of things to point out as additions, not arguments. 

Mahle kept having shoulder issues in the past few years. Then this past Spring, Mahle ripped his elbow up .... TJ surgery.

Gray has had some ups and downs and was able to fully focus last offseason on baseball after being heavily involved with labor negotiations the previous offseason. Additionally, Gray added a pitch. 

I believe you are correct that Sonny Gray was treated well by the Twins and Baldelli. Gray is likely very aware of this and those comments that suggested a rift between pitcher and manager were almost surely way off base. Gray is competitive and merely stated a preference for more innings..

Almost certainly, Sonny Gray is going to be receiving a number of offers for handsome money. I hope the Twins use the QO draft pick to find a keeper. (at least better than the one beautiful walleye versus many annoying northerns I managed last week out on the lake).

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In my analytic daydreams I run a stats group for a MLB team, and I task a tiger-team within it to develop best-in-breed analytics concerning pitcher health and longevity.  They bring me a trial version, I challenge every assumption about which pitchers are the best candidates and what the proper techniques are for preserving talent, they go back and rework it, I put it through the wringer again, they go back and fine tune it, and eventually it's ready for prime time.  I use their model to identify pitching trade targets, I trade for Mahle before it's too late and save his career, and I trade for Gray and get him to produce to maximum potential.

That's the dream anyway.

I think in reality we're pretty far from that point.  Yes it's interesting to compare two pitchers on one team who migrated differently to the same other team, but I'm skeptical that solid conclusions can be drawn.

But yes, Gray owns thanks to the Twins, and the Twins owe thanks to Gray.  Win-win.

And unfortunately, Mahle had worrisome shoulder woes, and then the elbow is what got 'im.  Lose-lose.

 

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1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Good post. A couple of things to point out as additions, not arguments. 

Mahle kept having shoulder issues in the past few years. Then this past Spring, Mahle ripped his elbow up .... TJ surgery.

Gray has had some ups and downs and was able to fully focus last offseason on baseball after being heavily involved with labor negotiations the previous offseason. Additionally, Gray added a pitch. 

I believe you are correct that Sonny Gray was treated well by the Twins and Baldelli. Gray is likely very aware of this and those comments that suggested a rift between pitcher and manager were almost surely way off base. Gray is competitive and merely stated a preference for more innings..

Almost certainly, Sonny Gray is going to be receiving a number of offers for handsome money. I hope the Twins use the QO draft pick to find a keeper. (at least better than the one beautiful walleye versus many annoying northerns I managed last week out on the lake).

Thanks tony & co. I appreciate it. Looking into Mahle's injury history, he didn't have any shoulder injuries until '22 when he was overextended by the Reds. He had a hamstring injury in '19.

I never mentioned a rift between Baldelli & Gray, I understand that Gray's grieviance was competitive motivated that could have been easily been taken differently or become frustated  & a manager could give in to the grieviance & pitch him much more but Baldelli wasn't bothered & stuck to his guns. Plus the new pitch he picked up with Twin. 

My point is that this Thanksgiving Gray has a lot to thank the Lord & Twins for. I hope he fully understands & appreciates how blessed he has been.

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5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I never mentioned a rift between Baldelli & Gray,

Good call on the hamstring (Mahle). I was incorrectly remembering  a shoulder. 

FWIW, I didn't think you had mentioned the supposed rift between Rocco and Sonny. I was only referencing that this has been often discussed. My own take is that they got along fine. Yes, i do think Sonny is grateful. Unfortunately, the big contracts talk if the team fits. I loved watching Gray pitch but he will pick a team that works. The Twins just don't go large on pitching contracts.

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