rdehring

Interesting topic that drove me over the edge this year. Have no problem with their bringing the infield in with a runner on third with less than two outs and no on else on base. But with one out, why not play the middle infield deep and go for the inning ending double play. Too often saw them not do that and the runner scored on a dribbler thru the infield.

The problem isn't only the bad call, rather, how it affects the outcome of the game. A bad call that doesn't change an at bat or lead to a run scored or not scored is a bad call that you can live with. But, a bad call making the count 0-2 rather than 1-1 in a close game with no outs and a runner on first can be huge. The difference this year is that I remember way to many bad calls that led to shutting down an inning the Twins were looking at potentially scoring. For that reason, I believe MLB must go to robo umps as soon as 2022...assuming there is a 2022. Hopefully, there are enough Donaldson's out there so that the players union will push for this change in the next CBA.

Count me among those, John, who see the payroll down to the $100M to $110M range. With that restriction, I don't see them signing a big name starter. Also isn't room for Rosario or Cruz, unless Cruz is willing to come back for a max of $10M. I see Adrianza returning, provided he is willing to do so for a salary similar to last year or a $2M max. The other utility player after a month of seasoning at Rochester will be Lewis, playing 4-5 games a week at second, short, third and center. I bring back one of May or Clippard and resign Rogers as I think some of his problems this year were related to COVID and his role as player rep. Yes, that already puts me over $110M and I don't have a #4 starter. I see them getting that player via trade. Considering the numbers you presented above, the player I trade is Sano. Also would consider signing Rosario and then trading him along with a mid-prospect for a better prospect who is close. Expect the payroll will be around $110M on opening day and we will see two of Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach or Lewis on the opening day roster with Lewis joining them after playing a lot of second, short, third and center at Rochester for a month or so, becoming the new Marwin Gonzalez until he settles into his own spot in future years. On the COVID front, John, I don't see a lot of people in the stands on opening day unless both a vaccine and treatment is readily available to the masses. [And that likelihood is getting smaller every day.] Maybe a couple thousand, but nothing approaching full attendance. And with that uncertainty, the Twins and most clubs are going to be cutting their payrolls substantially, So maybe there is hope that most of the numbers you and others are presenting will be much higher than needed to sign someone like say, Odorizzi.

Now, let's get Berrios extended this winter, along with Buxton. Want to comment on everyone writing Dobnak off for the future. From what I saw, his problems late weren't that anyone was hitting him especially hard. Rather, his ball which normally moves a lot was moving way more than normal. Saw so many pitches move a lot and way out of the strike zone. Result was that he was constantly 2-0 or 3-0 in those last couple games. Not a clue what could have caused this, but certainly seems like something that can be fixed. Would be much more concerned if hitters were teeing off on him. Might also help a groundball pitcher if the Twins didn't shift as much or bring the infield in early in the game with a runner on third.

I normally cringe when I see comments proposing that the Twins spend big dollars on veteran starting pitchers. But your comment above actually makes sense, at least to me. I expect the Twins payroll in 2021 will be less than this year, perhaps a lot less. But should they cut ties with one of several players to make room for a prospect, they just might be able to free up $30mm for a one year contract with Bauer. And one year is the only way I would be comfortable with big dollars to a pitcher. And who knows, the Twins might be high on Bauer's list of teams he would like to play for. He is familiar with the Twins, they are a contender and he wouldn't have to pitch to Max Kepler.

The reasons you listed for trading this trio is the biggest reason why the Twins should keep them and build around them and Buxton. There are others on this team who could also be traded should the FO be serious about opening a spot for one of the young studs or part of a package for a top pitcher.

No one has been a bigger fan of Thorpe than I. But after watching him struggle this past season, am beginning to believe that with his stuff he has to be perfect on every pitch to be successful. And that just ain't gonna happen over a long season. So count me amongst those who remain hopeful...but a big doubter.

What happens to Max's power totals for this crazy, short year if the Reds had started Trevor Bauer in one of their three games this season? As crazy as my above comment is, this season was equally crazy. Other than the pain from going two and out again, let's put the entire year behind us and forget it. I believe Max was becoming the player he can be in 2019 and the best is yet to come. I honestly believe he has the potential to be very good for the next ten plus years, so good he could someday be considered for the HOF. So for me, he is as close to untouchable as any Twin should be. I also believe that of the three young studs coming up, Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach, Kirilloff is going to be special. But you don't need to trade away Kepler, or Rosario, to get him onto the diamond at Target Field. If anyone gets moved, put Kirilloff at first base and trade your K man in every other at bat. Watched most of the Rays game against that team from New York last night. Wow, that is an exciting team to watch. Sure made me question my thoughts all year that our bullpen was as good as any...not. Do have a question for the guys at TD. Could someone do a position by position comparison between the Rays starting 9 and the Twins? How many of the Rays starters would start if they were on the Twins. Yet, they are headed to the League championship series and sure looks like a favorite to me.

Hadn't been a big fan of Wade. But the more I saw last year, he grew on me. Think I would agree with those who prefer him to Cave as the 4th outfielder.

Yes, we found out how useless RBI were in the recent Houston series. I'll take a guy that drives em in...and yes, I understand that no one on the team other than Cruz had any RBI in that series.

Love Eddie and would be happy should the Twins extend him and he remains a Twin. With that said, understand the need/desire to open a spot(s) for Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach. With a desire to find at least one of those at the beginning of next year, will be curious to see what the Twins do. Truth is they can probably create a spot by keeping one of their most exciting players (most exciting when Buxton is not in the lineup)...IMO.

Yes, no, maybe? A lot depends on whether he is willing to accept a one year deal or one year with an option. When players get to his age, isn't smart for teams to be guaranteeing two years unless the total dollars is near what you would pay for one good year. Also depends on the insider knowledge management has regarding his health and general physical condition towards the end of last year. No question, he began wearing down the last several weeks. And that was only a two month season. Should he begin wearing down after 6 weeks of a six month season it could be ugly. We just don't have the knowledge needed to know.

As with all of us, my opinion doesn't matter. But what will the Twins do? We just don't know what effect this crazy, crazy season had on the performance of all Twins players. Although many had very disappointing seasons, we just don't know if the Twins are giving all of them a 'mulligan.' With that said, I have a feeling there may be less significant moves than we think should be. For example, how can you plan to have Sano playing every day after striking out 50% of the time. How much did Polanco's ankle effect what he did this year? Why was Garver so bad after being so good? What is the problem with Arraez' knee? Will it go away with rest or does he need another surgery? There is little question that Jeffers will most likely be penciled in to about 50% of games behind the plate. There is no question that albeit in small samples, both Rooker and Kirilloff appear to have made claim for a spot on the opening day roster. How those spots are made available remains to be seen and I for one eagerly await their moves.

Wanted to respond to MNTWINSWINAGAIN, but didn't want to copy that entire post. Found your thought process to be interesting, very interesting. No one will know until we get to spring if there will be any fans in the stands, thus budgeting 2021 revenue is a crap shoot. So I will be shocked if we don't see the Twins payroll reduced substantially, much lower than most of the above projections. Did find one thing in your post that I had to do a double take on. That was including Javier with your infielders to bring up. He didn't play anywhere in 2020 and most recent season was a total failure with the bat in 2019 at Cedar Rapids. Certainly not ready for the big leagues and is probably buried deep in their depth chart at shortstop. Now Lewis, he could be another story.

With all the talk about hitting coaches I began wondering about something I must have heard several times during every broadcast. That is that they were not allowed to use some type of video during games that they had relied upon in previous years. Assume it had something to do with Houston prior transgressions, but not sure of that either Will that video be back next year? Did it make that much of a difference to be the cause of so many good hitters throughout the league doing poorly?

Thanks for another great article, Nick. Don't know how you keep them coming day after day, but they are appreciated. Expect the first question is the biggie that everything else will be subject to. Opening day is now less than six months away. Looking back six months, really not much has changed. Yes, there is hope for a vaccine in the coming months and perhaps some better treatments. But COVID-19 isn't going away, we are gonna have to learn to live and yes, die with it. That means old fahrts like me and my wife don't have much of a life making Twins games on tv so very important. It also means that there will most certainly be both limitations and restrictions on fans at Target Field next April. With that a strong probability and a large loss in 2020, don't see how the Twins payroll budget won't be much smaller in 2021, probably down to $100M or even less. Actually, the worst scenario for their CFO is that there is a full season with attendance limited to 15%-25% which would likely generate bigger losses than this year. Gonna be an interesting winter as players and the union gripe about not receiving those big long-term deals. So I see the Twins doing more tinkering along with a few smart trades rather than any BIG free agent signings. Would love to see Nellie back, but on a one year deal. Agree with you that it is probably 50-50. A big need is getting several players who play best on the big stage when needed the most. But their biggest need may be a new manager. I cannot believe that an entire team goes in the tank on the biggest stage because all of their key players are losers. I refuse to believe that both Maeda and Berrios needed to be removed and the outcome wouldn't have been different had they stayed in. I cannot understand the constant shifting and bringing the infield in early in a game when a double play would end the inning. Two key runs were scored by Houston on weak ground balls that were outs for the first 100+ years this game has been played. Those are all the Manager's decisions, and they weren't good. As for the hitting coach, I wasn't around the team and have no way of knowing whether he should stay or go. It appears the Twins have a half dozen players ready to step up and play. Rooker, Jeffers, and Kirilloff all look to be ready. Jeffers spot is easy, the others will require that another player be moved. Don't know what form it will take, but they are gonna have to start getting some of these guys playing time. Thanks, Nick.

I maintain not trading at the deadline nor the injuries is the major problem this team faced. What drives me nuts is the shift for nearly every hitter and bringing the infield in early in the game when a double play would end the inning. Although my recollection isn't what it used to be, I recall two key runs scoring in the playoffs on slow grounders that would have been outs in days past. The biggest question facing this team is have they taken analytics too bloody far?

Considering the subject, Nick, I really don't want to say it was a great post. But the fact is you nailed it. I had moved on to 2021 after Tuesday's loss that shouldn't have been. I see lots of talk above about 2021, but no one has mentioned the ugly truth. Yes, this team needs lots of changes to get over that last hurdle. But planning for 2021 is going to be almost impossible for the people that will be doing it. There are many questions the FO and owner will be facing. Will there be a normal 2021 spring training and season? If there is a 162 game season, will there be fans in the stands? And if so, how many? Will there be any progress towards a new CBA during the season? Or will baseball come to a halt after next year's post season? Considering the players unwillingness to give a nickel on their per game compensation during a pandemic, it sure seems like a strong possibility. And on a related note, will there be a minor league season? If not, baseball may have lost an entire group of players who were well into their development and won't be there to replace aging veterans over the coming years. And none of the above questions has much to do with any decisions about filling out a 2021 roster. But with that uncertainty, I don't see the Twins (or most teams) spending like normal. I will be surprised if lots of players don't end up on one year contracts for a lot less than they want. Likewise, I will be surprised if the Twins 2021 opening day payroll, assuming there is an opening day, is much over $100,000,000. And with Donaldson making $21,000,000, that doesn't leave room for any big free agent contracts.

Will be an interesting fall/winter at Target Field. Does the FO understand that this team has problems? Will they take a hint from over in St. Paul and decide that some serious changes are needed? Don't know how they will react, but am doubtful they will make serious changes and if they do, what those changes are. Should be interesting seeing what team takes the field in Fort Myers come March...assuming there is a spring training. And until we know for a fact that there will be lots of fans in the stands, what will their budget for payroll be next year? My over under is $100,000,000.

In total agreement with all your points, Ted. Was scratching my head when Garver pinch hit, then again when Avila came on to catch. Stopped scratching when Astudillo pinch hit as I knew the Manager believed he needed to get all four catchers into the game. I have to believe that Garver will be better in 2021. Maybe not 2019 good, but certainly better than this year. That puts Garver and Jeffers splitting starts about 50-50. Expect Astudillo will either be gone or in Rochester, assuming the World has returned to some degree of normal. That will help the Twins cut payroll for 2021, which I expect will be down from projected 2020 by at least a quarter or more. Notice how I have already turned the page to next year.

They talked about a few of these decisions over at the Twins site. Wade isn't eligible having been optioned to the ALT site on Saturday. They also were concerned with how well Houston knows Alcala, having gotten him from them in the 2018 trade. Personally, that was over two years ago and I doubt Houston would have an advantage from his time there.

Very interesting. Have to believe that it is related to some player(s) injury. Wouldn't surprise me to learn at some point that one of several Twins have been playing thru some nagging injury. Maybe Sano? Cruz? Could see Kirilloff getting at bats in either case.

Great recap, Nick. Wrote elsewhere that I watched the games in Columbus, Ohio listening to the Reds tv crew. They were raving about Arraez, including comparisons to Pete Rose. Can't remember if I heard it there or read it online, but one comment was that Arraez could wake up on Christmas morning and go out and get a couple hits...or something like that. To be honest, the biggest surprise for me has been that MLB actually got thru this season with all teams playing 60 or close to 60 games. Hell of a job by the players and management to have a great COVID plan in place and sticking to it.

Watched the game yesterday at my son's home in Columbus, Ohio. Was fun listening to the Cincinnati crew do the game. Found it interesting when they were raving about Arraez with comparison's to Pete Rose. Isn't it great that he ended the season hitting for a .321 average? I think this season confirms that he is going to be special for a long time. Had a feeling late in the game that Baldelli wasn't going all-in to get the win. As for the pessimism above, think a lot is based on the poor performance of several hitters who did unbelievably well last year. This year, not so good. Yet, as I look around the league many of the big name hitters are also doing poorly. Just look at the Cubs, Brewers, etc. Gotta believe the short summer training, schedule and conditions players are living with have a lot to do with it. Now on to victory versus the Stro's.

Add to four NL Central teams in the playoffs and our division was the best, no questions.