nicksaviking

Can anyone share where Appel, Gray and Bryant landed?

I agree and I've often put "overpay" "overpaid" in sarcastic quotes.

This is MLB not the NFL, I don't think championship rings mean a whole lot to the voters, but even if they do, he's on a contending team now. I've made this arguement before, I think Nathan will end up getting in after some Blylevenian wait and SABR debate. I think he'll get in due to his dominance during his peak years. Considering the innings pitched, closers generally don't produce a ton of WAR. I know, WAR sucks, blah blah, but considering how few variables there are for a closer, it actually matches up well for this position. A 2.0 WAR is a pretty good season for a closer. Joe Nathan is in the middle of what looks to be his 6th 2.8 WAR season. Mariano Rivera is far and away the best closer ever, but HOF'ers Rollie Fingers and Dennis Eckersly have a total of four 2.8 WAR years. Combined. Trevor Hoffman only had 3. The aforementioned Billy Wagner had 3. Other contemporary top closers Jonathan Paplebon, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Valverde have six years with a 2.8 WAR. Combined. This of course this isn't an end all be all arguement but I think it shows how much more dominant Nathan was than his contemporaries save Rivera. He'll likely still need to pitch well a couple more years to pad his stats, as HOF voters like traditional stats too, but only 14 more saves from the top 10 is a big number. I think 72 more saves to get to 400 would be hard to argue against and barring a complete nose dive in 2014, I think he's a shoe in to get there in 2015. 4th all time in saves is well within the realm of possibility.

Yeah, but the other KC situation was NOT trading their prospects and watching them flame out for the better part of 2 decades. I agree with you and I don't want to trade any youngsters but to be fair, both scenarios tend to produce flops and KC failed using the first scenario for a very, very long time. Solution: Hold on to the prospcets and fill the holes in free agency. Seems pretty simple. The cheap youngsters balance out the free agent upgrades that generally require an overpay.

And the similarly small marke Reds regret Aroldis Chapman. The Rangers probably regret Yu Darvish also.

Yeah, they're not doing that either, hence Reusse's complaint about not signing Tseng.

The international scouting did expand, but only because it needed to. The Twins were among the last to have a regular presence in the Carribean. It was once again a reactionary move as the Twins were trying to keep up with the rest of the league. Reusse's article boiled my blood last night when I read it even though it's the same stuff we say here daily. Our frustration just seems more justified when someone who gets paid to say it, says it. You don't get the hot girl to dance if you sit in the corner of the gym with your science club buddies texting your mom to come pick you up. Get off your butt and make a bold move Ryan. There is no room in this league for a functioning passive-holic.

St. Louis is actually one of the smallest markets. No one has mentioned that Detroit was also in the lottery. They have one of the smallest revenues. No teams are forced to open their books, but of course as the name implies, the Competitive Draft Lottery indicates the Twins are in a stronger financial situation than both the Cardinals and the Tigers.

I would happily comment on it.

Not to mention the 30 starts from the replacement level pitchers all too often ends up a dozen starts from said pitcher and 18 from the AAAA guys that replace him once he's been DFA'd.

Well the injury history actually is why I think he is more likely. Because of his age and health, I would not be surprised if Hughes gets a 4-5 year deal. With his injury history, I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson had to take a 2-3, perhaps even a 1-year prove-it deal depending on how he finishes the season. I think it's a safe assumption that if on the off chance Ryan was going to gamble, it would be with money, not with years.

The pick probably. The pick and the money? Not in my opinion. If the Twins give away their 2nd rounder, I'd think Josh Johnson would be the target. Though I would be surprised if Ryan would be willing to give up a high 2nd rounder for anyone. He's probably going to be a sneaky decent pitcher away from Yankee Stadium, but baseball genius is not exclusive to this board. If we think it, likely it will cross the mind of every GM. I would wager he is going to get a contract in length and in money that we will all be disgusted by this off season due to his age, big name status, and splits that support a likely improvement away from NY.

And hopefully Rosario, Tonkin, DJ Hicks and DJ Baxendale end up proving that the team is drafting better lately. However since 2003, it appears that Brain Dozier is the best MLB player the Twins have drafted past the 3rd round. If you want to expand it to include the 3rd round, then LOOGY Brian Duensing is the best player drafted in that span. I'm guessing nearly every team can claim better success stories and multiple ones at that. It's not acceptable for a team that implies it's scouting is the most improtant part of a rebuild. Edit: Just going through random team's yearly draft results will show the disparity.

Which is why he'll turn it down. The Yankees will offer it to him, he'll turn it down and the Twins won't be interested as they won't want to give up a draft pick. Nor would I want them to. If the Twins can't get anything with upside for Morneau, they still need to consider doing the same. I will not be happy with another Liriano trade. I know, I know, "He wasn't that good and we shouldn't have expected that much for him!" but that wasn't the point. The Twins can't be taking on more AAAA players to take up 40-man roster spots. Considering what is coming through the system and the fact that a couple of the guys will need to be added before their service time requires, means they need to manage their roster better. Mis-managing the 40-man and clogging it with low upside AAAA players is going to cause this team to lose better players than Joe Benson going forward. Wasting roster spots on more Hernadez/Escobar types may at some point do more damage than letting Morneau go for nothing.

I don't believe I do. I already mentioned that I believe the Twins have done fine with the first round. Obviously later picks tend to fail at a high percentage, but for more than a decade, this team has shown almost no ability to spot someone later than round 2 or 3. The top guys are the names every team knows and scouts. For a team that prides itself on scouting, they have not been very good and discovering talent on their own.

However I don't like many of the Yankee farm hands past the top guys. And the Twins aren't getting a top guy. The Rays and Pirates have depth.

It better be. For a GM who won't play the free agent game and talks about building from within, this is the best chance in years to get a upper level prospect mid-season. I don't think many closers get traded in the off season, there generally are a half dozen available in free agency anyway and that's when teams become rational about whether a top closer is worth that much more than an average one.

Yeah, but all it would take is for Hughes to pitch modestly well for him to get a multi-year offer Ryan would never feel comfortable matching. A re-signing would be more likely if he tanked. That's the kind of pitcher Ryan targets on a one year deal.

Swarzak probably has earned himself a bit of appreciation. As for Hicks and Parmelee, I think there is promise there, but WAR isn't supposed to grade on projection.

I like the fact that the Rays are in on Morneau. His value is down, but the Rays have a bunch of pitchers with upside and several shortstops who are not among their top prospects.

I hadn't heard that one. In my opinion, only one of those statements is foolish for a GM to make.

I would and wouldn't think twice about it. Stewart is where Fernandez was two years ago, the odds are slim he will get to Fernandez' level.

Yeah, to teams making the offer, "not enough" likely sounds the same as "no." Ryan has already said everyone is available.

Yeah, but that's counting Yonder Alonso who had every intention of going to college. Three other 1.0+ WAR guys are Chris Parmelee, Anthony Swarzak and Aaron Hicks. I think that is more an indictment on WAR than anything. Clearly the guys going toward the top of the draft are more likely to succeed, but the Twins inability to find many useful players past the 2nd round is terrible. The guys at the top are the obvious names everyone team has heard of. The guys going past round two are often players many teams have discovered by themselves and many other teams have not seen and may be completely unaware of. For a team that thinks they specialize in scouting, they have not been discovering their own talent very well.

And I doubt anyone believes Hicks strikeouts will be remedied at any level. If Hicks succeeds, it will be inspite of his strikeouts.