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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    And perhaps that's why the Twins will target Baker again next off season.
  2. nicksaviking
    Agreed, and there will be much consternation on this board about it. To be fair, depending on how the market plays out, it could be from me. His age and pedigree will get him at least what Edwin Jackson got and with the questionable free agent market and extra TV revenue every team is getting, I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to Anibal Sanchez's deal. To his agent's delight, people will be throwing out the schtick about how he was unfarily hurt by Yankee Stadium and his home/road splits will support the arguement. Of course once he gets his bloated contract, then everyone will be quick to point out what a terrible deal it was for the organization that was duped by the hype.
  3. nicksaviking
    Well the arguement is that if this team needs to hand out multi year deals to secure a bigger free agent fish, they need to do it now because if they wait until all the youngsters start needing contract attention, there will be not be enough money. Signing a good starting pitcher to a four year deal this offseason may mean he's on a poor team in 2014 but in theory he would be usefull for the competitive three seasons that follow. Besides, the international free agent market is well underway and all of the top players have signed deals. The Twins still have about $1.5 million in cap space left. The Twins will not necessarily spend international draft slot money even when they are able to.
  4. nicksaviking
    I think everyone can agree on that. Not that I would actively seek one, but even a deal up to 5 years should still fit into that window as far as arbitration is concerned
  5. nicksaviking
    Pelfrey was coming off TJ surgery and the Mets are no Yankees as far as hype goes. To add to my arguement, this thread has reached two pages in less than 3 hours. For Phil freaking Hughes.
  6. nicksaviking
    Because he plays in NY and was at one point a high prospect, Hughes has the advantage of being a much bigger name than his production warrents. I wouldn't be surprised if he snags a disgustingly undeserved contract next year due to his name appeal and lack of quality starters on the market.
  7. nicksaviking
    Yeah, the Cubs are going way over budget, they won't have a lot of money next year. Along with the Rangers, I wonder if there is something sneaky at play here. Are these teams really going to give up next year's ability to sign top international players? Or do they assume there will be a draft? Or have they already assessed next year's crop and decided it will be slim pickings? Either way, MLB needs to make sure flaunting the spirit of the rules is punished. Perhaps it's just jealousy in so far as my team looks to be sitting on something like $1.5 million and all the top guys are gone and my team didn't trade any of the cap space for prospects.
  8. nicksaviking
    Are you sure he won't count against the international cap? He wasn't 23 at the time he declared his eligibility. It would seem if MLB lets him slide, it would provide a pretty big loophole that every Cuban would take advantage of.
  9. nicksaviking
    I thought this would lead to a Vargas promotion.
  10. nicksaviking
    Tonkin has been discussed as a future replacement for Glen Perkins on this site. While this move clearly does not signify a trade, a solid performance **small sample size disclosure** could help convince management that there are options for the team's future.
  11. nicksaviking
    It's a fair arguement, but I'm still OK with going after better caliber pitchers even at the risk that they'll turn out to be an Edwin Jackson or Dan Haren. There is financial risk, but all it is really doing is limiting the ability to sign the future Carrolls, Pelreys and Correias. Those guys are easily replacable with AAA players and, while I'm not trying to be harsh, they are the true source of wasted payroll. Free agent money should be spent on upgrades, not depth. Thats what the minor leagues and waivers are for. As for changing the market; good. Why shouldn't the Twins be the team adjusting the market as opposed to the team that gets adjusted by the market. I've had enough of this team being reactive instead of proactive.
  12. nicksaviking
    Obviously there are things you can't always see with stats but the problem with the eyeball test is you then need a test for the guy who's eyeballs are doing the evaluation. Who's eyeballs are we using to grade these guys and are they reliable eyeballs. Numbers can tell you if Delmon Young needs to see more pitches per plate appearnce but the eyeball test to see if he is providing enough hustle down the 1st baseline is pretty subjective. I would think preconcieved notions have a tendancy to skew many eyeball tests.
  13. nicksaviking
    Um, Callan Pearce is a cricket player? Or is it a coincedence that the only news in South Africa I can find for Callan Pearce is about a cricket player, a sport similar to baseball? Glenwood Cricket Starts on Front Foot #HSSMCricket The Twins have a lot of foreign dollars to spend and they implied they would. Besides Tseng, who else is left to spend this on? I'd rather they spend big on a few big-time guys than spend little on a lot of smaller guys. Perhaps there is a chance there is some movement toward resolution on Aledmys Diaz? Last I heard he was likley looking to be eligible to sign next February but I hadn't heard if the age issue was resolved. If it has been resolved and he was found to be under 23, perhaps the Twins will save some international money for him. Normally lying about his age would require a year wait before he would be eligible and it was last February I believe that he declared he was coming. If he was lying about his age and was suspended, it seems odd it has not been widely circulated. Unless MLB believes he is under 23 but cannot prove it and thus have passively punished him by declaring he is eligible next February while the age is "under review."
  14. nicksaviking
    Congrats Parker, a great publication to be associated with! I'm curious about this quote from Radcliff: “For every player there is a productivity, analytical, sabermetric test that you would like to see,” Radcliff says. “But there’s the eyeball test, too. I wonder what exactly the "analytical" and "sabermetric" tests are? Or was Radcliff just very aware of his audience?
  15. nicksaviking
    Right because it was a 5-year deal, but every year the Twins just sign another group of replacement level players which are much less likely to play better than league-minimum guys in AAA. I'm OK if the by signing a Sanchez the Twins DON'T sign the Pelfreys, Marquis', Carrolls, and Correias for a few years and instead plug in a guy from the system.
  16. nicksaviking
    That would be nice, but Ryan doesn't appear to have the constitution to sign whatever substitutes for Anibal Sanchez in 2015. His MO is to spend the same yearly amount a GM normally would pay Sanchez and apply it to a bunch of replacement level players. Even though the long term deal is risky, I'm OK if it prohibits the team from spending on more dime-a-dozen free agents he tends to bring in to the fold instead. Edit: And then you post this which is agreeable enough for me to end my part of the discussion: "If Ryan refuses to spend money when the Twins are on the cusp of contention and the payroll is $60m, I'll be first in line to call for his head." "Will JR spend the money? Unfortunately, I have little faith in that happening but hey, it's possible."
  17. nicksaviking
    The $100 million arguement is a bit loaded. The Twins DO sign free agents, just not good ones. Terry Ryan is afraid of signing one quality free agent and intead nickle and dimes the hired hands. It's crazy to assume that the $13 million spent on Pelfrey, Correia and Carroll is more likely to yeild positive results than the $16 million spent on Sanchez. Everyone and their mother could predict that those three would produce results that likely could be duplicated by AAA players making league minimum. The $13 million spent on replacement level players is a much bigger waste of money.
  18. nicksaviking
    I'm at a loss how Ryan defenders can point to the Scott Baker singning as a poor one when his zero WAR is superior to the negative WAR of Mike Pelfrey. Baker, who has not played, has not produced negative results for his club. Both were a waste of money but at least Baker hasn't hurt his club.
  19. nicksaviking
    It's debatable but I'm in the camp that the average fan was much more in love with power Willingham provided last year than they were with the singles Span and Revere gave. The average fan may not realize how much a good table setter is worth but everyone knows 35 HR is awesome. Though I don't know that fan reaction was the biggest bugaboo, I'm not sure that Ryan didn't feel the same way. Willingham was a more valuable player last year though what good did his superior value do for the team? It still was a +90 loss season.
  20. nicksaviking
    I also prefer the text but I wanted to say that the effort in putting a video entry together was appreciated.
  21. nicksaviking
    Big indeed and although I don't like to stereotype guys, his game is as his body suggest. Boom or Bust. Hicks followed up his 4K performance on July 3rd by going 2-4 with a HR on Independence Day.
  22. nicksaviking
    They usually are. Of the 31 Australian raised players to ever play in the MLB, six were brought up by the Twins and a seventh played for the team. However, until MLB turns out a superstar from this continent it's going to be pretty hard to get amped up about them. Thus far Grant Balfour is likely the most accomplished Australian of all time.
  23. nicksaviking
    So is the requirement to be called an elite closer post season success or simply post season exposure? Because Joe Nathan has one but not the other yet every GM in baseball would label him elite. If he's available, I truly doubt there will be a more sought after bullpen arm than Perkins.
  24. nicksaviking
    I think Perkins will be moved and I think the return will be substantial. According to MLBTR the Phillies are expected to shop Jonathan Papelbon heavily. Jon Heyman earlier stated if the Phillies were to move Papelbon, the return would be "astronomical." This could easily play out similarly to last off season when teams preferred the cheaper Span/Revere to the pricey Bourn and Upton. Papelbon is two years older, has extra millage on his arm and has declining K numbers while Perkins are improving. More importantly Perkins has a contract of the same length as Papelbon but it is less than 1/4 the price and Perkins' final year is a team option while Papelbon's is a vesting option. Bonus: Perkins is also left-handed. I haven't said too many positive things about Terry Ryan recently, but I was very happy with how he leveraged his CF's against the free agent market last year. He can do it again by letting the Phillies establish the parameters and expectations of a deal while the Twins reap the benefits.
  25. nicksaviking
    No reason to complain really unless you know quite a bit about these guys. This isn't like the Rule IV draft, these guys are largely unknown. If you look at the various rankings "experts" have of these guys you'll see they are in no way similar, and how could they be? None of these experts have the resources to see all these guys play in person; I'd wager that most of their knowledge comes from second hand intel and shoddy video. Besides, MLB has Diaz ranked 10th, would people feel better about not getting their 4th ranked player if the Twins also signed Perez who is ranked 9th? Regarding Diaz, he excites me because reading between the lines, he is not a one tool player. The reports I've seen all say his size indicates the power will come, but actually at this point he is actually just a very strong hitter.
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