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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    I'm not sure if Atlanta is on to something, or if they've just got their blinders on. Free agent relievers bombed like never before last year, which seemed odd because at first glance there seemed to be so many good ams available AND nearly every team seemed mostly disinterested. It seemed to me that most clubs had picked up on something with these bullpen guys. I'd like to see the Twins get some free agents early, but after last year the bullpen is the last place I hope that happens. I don't think much about Atlanta's front office but I guess we'll have to wait to see if these were smart moves.
  2. nicksaviking
    I want them to spend on free agents, but I think there's still a need to get cute. There are a lot of free agent pitchers who can help the team get to the playoffs, but only a couple, at least in my view, that can help the Twins win in the playoffs. Guys like Keuchel, Ryu and Hamels would certainly help solidify a rotation, but at this point in their careers I don't think any of them could logically turn into a front line starter. If you rank those guys with Archer based on floor, Archer would likely be at the bottom, but he's still got the velocity and the wipe-out slider, he'd still have the highest ceiling of any of those guys, I don't think it's even close.
  3. nicksaviking
    Cole wasn't a stud, he'd come off of two average seasons which was extremely disappointing considering his pedigree, his velocity and his movement. I get the Archer comp, but from a bit of a different angle. The guy had never thrown a sinker before, but that's the Pittsburgh staple and as soon as he got there they had him throwing this new pitch at the expense of his superior four seamer and slider. Houston had Cole do the exact opposite and he took off. For what it's worth, I think Archer clearly knows that was an issue because the last two months of the season he stopped throwing the sinker. Yeah, I'd take a flyer on him. But that wasn't going to be the pitcher I thought Nick was going to bring up. I thought it was going to be Jon Gray, another top draft pick with elite velocity, and good but not great results that may or may not be heavily influenced by his organization and environment.
  4. nicksaviking
    I want Boyd. But only after he’s non-tendered. He is or at least should be a slider/FB bullpen guy and I think he’ll be lights out when he finally makes that move. No interest as a starter though; minimizing his poor off speed pitches worked for about two months last year until everyone caught on.
  5. nicksaviking
    Polanco is a DH playing the outfield in the NL and still guaranteed 24M while only once being an above average batter. I think Pittsburgh would give him away if someone would take his whole salary.
  6. nicksaviking
    They may have changed or they may have been a fib to keep their intentions of trading for starting pitching, not trading away, was kept obscure.
  7. nicksaviking
    I hope not, Graterol is the only guy who makes me think good thoughts about the future. I want them to sign free agents this year as there is a hole in the rotation, but I guess to more concisely state my point, I don't think it was unreasonable for the front office to think one or two other rotation spots for 2020 would have been filled internally. Unfortunately most options disappointed last year. Also, while I'll take Bumgarner or Wheeler, I'm not a big fan of the typical 2nd tier starting pitching free agents. The Santana/Nolasco/Hughes/Lynn type deals don't really seem to work out any better than the third or fourth tier free agent pitchers. There's rarely any real talent difference while there is minimal upside to these types of arms and the contract length more often than not has an inherent risk. I'd rather go year to year with the bounce back pitcher du jour. Or L' annee I guess, I'd hope he's good for more than one day.
  8. nicksaviking
    The team had and still has a bunch of pitchers under team control for more than 1 year. Most are still under team control for up to seven. Presumably they planned last year for some young guys to step up eventually. It can be debated whether or not that was a good plan, but aside from Berrios, Perez's 2020 option and the possibility of Gibson, Pineda and/or Odorizzi becoming worthy of a QO, it probably wasn't terribly out of line to think that one or two of Gonsalves, Thorpe, Romero, Graterol, Stewart, Smeltzer or Dobnak would have taken the steps needed to compete for a rotation spot in 2020. I agree that most teams don't have three open rotation spots at the conclusion of a season, but most teams also don't have a rotation that is 4/5ths free agents. Most teams do expect to produce enough of their own starters so they don't have to blow their free agent budget on starters every year, which this team has had to do more often than not due to about two decades of poor pitching development, which finally appears to be on the upswing.
  9. nicksaviking
    I think we will get a pretty fair estimation of his value once we start hearing contract offers for Marcel Ozuna and Nick Castellanos.
  10. nicksaviking
    This could also indicate that at least as far as Odorizzi’s research goes, free agent pitchers may not be getting paid as much was the pundits expect. Which is also good for the Twins.
  11. nicksaviking
    I'd think the assumption being made is that Hamels + Odorizzi more likely means the Twins don't get Wheeler or Bumgarner.
  12. nicksaviking
    Older pitchers with good velocity seem to have the best staying power, with Verlander, Scherzer, Morton and Lynn being the best examples from last year. And it's starting to seem like holding your velocity is something guys are better at doing these days.
  13. nicksaviking
    If Odorizzi does accept the QO, and if the rumors that his agent had already met with Toronto are true (they may not have been, his agent also represents Randall Grichuck), then it probably means Odorizzi already had a feel that at best Toronto's hypothetical offer would be only a minimal improvement to the QO salary. If so, that probably is a pretty good indicator that salaries, particularly to pitchers, are going to be lower than expected once again this offseason. Which probably means the Twins can be in play for anyone with mutual interest, but also probably means there won't be much free agent action until 2020.
  14. nicksaviking
    Especially because there's a good chance most of the top tier don't sign until late in the winter, at which point if you don't get one, you're left with nothing.
  15. nicksaviking
    I'd take Wheeler or Bumgarner and I really like the idea of Wheeler, but no one has been talking about Ryu. The initial internal thought that pops into my mind when thinking about him typically is "Eh", but the guy has been very consistent. He can throw every pitch and he's a lefty, while I don't like the idea of him leading the rotation like I would Wheeler, Ryu doesn't seem like a poor option either.
  16. nicksaviking
    I think Hamels' lower innings per outing was likely a product of being in the NL and/or game planning by the Cubs. At least last year, he was an uncommon pitcher and actually pitched BETTER to batters the third time he faced them holding them to a .706 OPS as opposed to the .896 OPS the 2nd time through the order. My interest in Hamels is minimal, but it's not because I think he'd tax the bullpen any more than most other pitchers. Though, going forward it's very possible the Twins intentionally restrict a starters innings.
  17. nicksaviking
    I'll accept that many players will take the highest dollar amount, if you accept that not every player is the staunch capitalist that you make them out to be. We don't know the motivations of every player and we never will, but we do know that they're all different humans and humans don't all operate the same way.
  18. nicksaviking
    I agree the dollars are light on the pitchers. And in fact with Pomeranz, I'd want him with an option year if not at least a 2nd guaranteed year, I think as a full time reliever he's going to be very good and expensive if he's a free agent again this time next year. I also previously thought Rosario wouldn't have a ton of trade value, but I now see MLBTR is predicting $15M/year 3 and 4 year deals for Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. I tend to think MLBTR is way off, but if they're not, Rosario probably actually does have quite a bit of value. Though I'd think the Twins might still have to chip in at least a 3rd piece to get Gray. Romo didn't excite me at the deadline, but his smoke and mirrors has lasted for a long time. They can bring him back if they want. If they don't, that'd be fine too.
  19. nicksaviking
    I've previously said that corner bats are easy to find in free agency, but I see MLBTR is predicting large multi year deals for both Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna, with both guys getting about $15M per. Both are similar .800+ish OPS corner guys with suspect defense, with Castellanos' defense being notoriously bad. I'd tend to think MLBTR is overestimating the two free agent's values, but I guess we'll see.
  20. nicksaviking
    I'm not itching for Gibson back, but I suspect there's a proximity bias here. Most likely you'd feel the same about everyone ranked below Gibson had you watched them pitch for the Twins the last half decade as well.
  21. nicksaviking
    I was going to say the opposite thinking Cash did so much with so much less, but you're right, as much as I dislike the Yankees, that record with all those injuries was pretty impressive.
  22. nicksaviking
    He kind of came out of nowhere, I think it's a bit premature to call him really good. And how do you know they passed? He was traded for a top 60 prospect and a SS at that. If the Twins are going to be trading Royce Lewis, I'd want it to be for a better pitcher than Zac Gallan
  23. nicksaviking
    I'm never big on sacrificing offense for defense. I know, that's not terribly popular. I really liked the regular offensive lineup last year as it didn't have any holes. I don't really want a glove only SS, even as a stop gap. Another unpopular take coming: If I was actively going to improve the defense, I'd move Sano and Polanco to the right side, and use everyone's favorite rookie 2B as trade bait in a package for a starting pitcher or to fill the newly created holes on the left side of the infield.
  24. nicksaviking
    Excellent write up and encouraging data. More efficient pitch usage sounds much easier to remedy then say control or velocity.
  25. nicksaviking
    This is an exciting blueprint, though I kind of think there won't be nearly the bullpen revamp as suggested. The Twins were fully able to snag multiple of what appeared to be high end, yet affordable relievers last year and then they didn't. And while most of the fans (me included) bemoaned coming up empty, the team was pretty astute in their inaction. Even though most of us were upset with the pen by the middle of the year, 90% of the free agent relievers turned out to be busts, and I don't think 90% is hyperbolic. The Yankees were about the only team that didn't eat dirt on free agent relievers last year. So I'd guess that's how things go with building a pen now until league-wide relievers start showing more consistency, which is hard, because if they were able to do that they'd probably be starters.
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