Dave The Dastardly

You're the manager, you've run about 20 reports off your computer, had three statisticians, a data geek and a borrowed nun from St. Francis explain esoteric stuff that went right over your head and had you daydreaming like Goldie Hawn and you've now retreated to your manager's office and are debating about throwing darts at the player's roster, wondering who you're going to start at 1st Base. But Fast Frankie, the team's towel guy, has stuck a purple post-it note on your desk that you can't avoid:
Arraez   .346   .420   .499   .869
Miranda  .260   .299   .463   .762
Kirilloff   .269   .319   .407   .726
Sano   .093   . 231   .148   .379
And you wonder why Fast Frankie wants you to know the players' locker combinations.
Who would you start at 1st?

You're the manager, you've run about 20 reports off your computer, had three statisticians, a data geek and a borrowed nun from St. Francis explain esoteric stuff that went right over your head and had you daydreaming like Goldie Hawn and you've now retreated to your manager's office and are debating about throwing darts at the player's roster, wondering who you're going to start at 1st Base. But Fast Frankie, the team's towel guy, has stuck a purple post-it note on your desk that you can't avoid:
Arraez   .346   .420   .499   .869
Miranda  .260   .299   .463   .762
Kirilloff   .269   .319   .407   .726
Sano   .093   . 231   .148   .379
And you wonder why Fast Frankie wants you to know the players' locker combinations.
Who would you start at 1st?

The Years of the Rookies: 1982 and 2022

I’ve mentioned in several (okay, numerous) posts that as far as I was concerned the 2022 season is primarily a “look-and-see” season for the Minnesota Twins; a fish-or-cut-bait season for testing out those promising young players that have been shining at the minor league level. Are they ready to play at the major league level or aren’t they? If they are, we’re a contender in 2023. If not… back to the Baseball Trade Casino looking for “deals” followed by another couple seasons of wallowing in baseball hell.
That’s why I argued back before spring training even got started that the Twins needed to move Sano, Donaldson and Cave to make room for Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis and Miranda. Did I think these four rookies were sure things? No. But I did think they showed “promise”; that is, enough talent to be at least as good as the older players on the team and hopefully, better in the long term whereas Sano, Donaldson and Cave were all on the downhill slide of their careers. There is no future in the past.
Anyway, reminiscent of the early 1980’s Twins team, which also brought a number of rookies up to the major league level, I prepared a chart comparing the 2022 rookies to Gary Gaetti and Kent Hrbek so as to gain a perspective how this year’s “experiments” are doing as compared to a solid ball player like Gaetti and a star player like Hrbek, both mainstays on the team throughout the 1980’s.
Draw your own conclusions. Me, I think we’re headed to baseball’s Pearly Gates in 2023.
*Lewis I left off because of his latest ACL injury, though I think most of us were ready to declare him a future star before he went down.
* Stats are current as of 1:46 PM 6/29/22
* Hrbek finished second in Rookie of the Year Award in 1982 to Cal Ripken, Jr.  Gary Gaetti finished 5th.
 
Hitting Comparisons
Player
Games
ABs
Ave.
OPS
Larnach
51
160
.231
.712
Miranda
42
138
.239
.696
Kirilloff
21
65
.231
.560
 
 
 
 
 
Gaetti 1981
9
26
.192
.615
Gaetti 1982
145
508
.230
.723
 
 
 
 
 
Hrbek 1981
24
67
.239
.659
Hrbek 1982
140
532
.301
.848
 
 
 
 
 
* Interesting to note how many games Gaetti and Hrbek played that season.
 
 
 

The Years of the Rookies: 1982 and 2022

I’ve mentioned in several (okay, numerous) posts that as far as I was concerned the 2022 season is primarily a “look-and-see” season for the Minnesota Twins; a fish-or-cut-bait season for testing out those promising young players that have been shining at the minor league level. Are they ready to play at the major league level or aren’t they? If they are, we’re a contender in 2023. If not… back to the Baseball Trade Casino looking for “deals” followed by another couple seasons of wallowing in baseball hell.
That’s why I argued back before spring training even got started that the Twins needed to move Sano, Donaldson and Cave to make room for Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis and Miranda. Did I think these four rookies were sure things? No. But I did think they showed “promise”; that is, enough talent to be at least as good as the older players on the team and hopefully, better in the long term whereas Sano, Donaldson and Cave were all on the downhill slide of their careers. There is no future in the past.
Anyway, reminiscent of the early 1980’s Twins team, which also brought a number of rookies up to the major league level, I prepared a chart comparing the 2022 rookies to Gary Gaetti and Kent Hrbek so as to gain a perspective how this year’s “experiments” are doing as compared to a solid ball player like Gaetti and a star player like Hrbek, both mainstays on the team throughout the 1980’s.
Draw your own conclusions. Me, I think we’re headed to baseball’s Pearly Gates in 2023.
*Lewis I left off because of his latest ACL injury, though I think most of us were ready to declare him a future star before he went down.
* Stats are current as of 1:46 PM 6/29/22
* Hrbek finished second in Rookie of the Year Award in 1982 to Cal Ripken, Jr.  Gary Gaetti finished 5th.
 
Hitting Comparisons
Player
Games
ABs
Ave.
OPS
Larnach
51
160
.231
.712
Miranda
42
138
.239
.696
Kirilloff
21
65
.231
.560
 
 
 
 
 
Gaetti 1981
9
26
.192
.615
Gaetti 1982
145
508
.230
.723
 
 
 
 
 
Hrbek 1981
24
67
.239
.659
Hrbek 1982
140
532
.301
.848
 
 
 
 
 
* Interesting to note how many games Gaetti and Hrbek played that season.
 
 
 

Thanks to Apple TV, my family got to watch a Twins game for a change. As luck would have it, we got a good one. The Twins crushed the Rays nine to four. Dingers abounded. I silenced my yelps of delight so my daughter would stay asleep.
I enjoyed seeing some of the players I’d only heard about on the radio. I’m not sure I knew what Pagan or Larnach looked like. Watching Buxton hit a home run is a lot more fun than just hearing about it. He enjoys every second of his trot around the bases. I didn’t even know that Joe Smith was a sub-mariner.
Speaking of things I didn’t know – Nobody told me the “Ray” in “Tampa Bay Rays” referred to a ray of sunlight. A harmless, pleasant, butterflies and tweety-birds ray of sunshine. I mean, they try to have it stand for the rays they keep in a pen, too, but is that so much better? To have your mascot be an animal so docile and sweet children can pet it? These used to be DEVIL Rays! That sounds like something malevolent from the sea! Something to fear! Not a little burst of sunlight. Why don’t they just start singing “You Are My Sunshine” instead of “Take Me Out to the Ball Game?”
Before you say it, I realize the Twins do not exactly sound threatening. Seriously, though, take a good look at Minnie and Paul. They would mess you up if they wanted to. They are big, burly men with bats. And we have a bear. TC may be friendly, but he’s still a bear. You don’t see the Minnesota Twins putting a BEAR petting zoo out in the outfield bleachers.
The Twins have to be tough from here on out. Have you seen what we’re putting on the mound these days? If the Twins let a guy go for a bucket of balls for an off-season trade, that bucket of balls would probably be pitching a game right about now. It’s bad. We need to get some of our better pitchers off the IL. Soon. It seems like the Twins need to score seven runs a night if they want to win. That’s a lot of pressure on our offense.
Next up is a midnight series at Seattle. I remember when starting something at 9 PM seemed like a fine thing to do on a week day. Now I’m over forty with a kid. Nothing holy can happen after 9 PM.

Does the emphasis on strike outs also commit the teams to the ridiculous 4 – 5 inning starter and a dozen or more relief pitchers per year?  Are we straining the arms by demanding near 100 mph heaters and lots of curves and sliders?
I went to Brad Radtke’s baseball reference page.  He pitched 12 years for us and is one of the best pitchers in Twins history.  148 – 139 4.22 era is not HOF worthy, and he cannot be called a great pitcher, but he was a competent competitor for teams that needed him like today’s Twins.
What I wanted to see was his innings pitched – 2451 – an average of 221 per year with a peak of 261.  He struck out 1467 and walked 445.  His WHIP was not great – 1.26, but acceptable.
His complete games – 37 is only 10% of his starts.  His average start was 6.5 innings per start. 
Now comes my crazy comparison – a potential Hall of Famer – Clayton Kershaw – has pitched 14 years, 2454 inning – only three more than Radtke.  2670 strike outs and 606 walks.  25 complete games – 12 less than Radtke and he has started 379 games – 2 more than Radtke. 
Of course, his 185 – 84 makes him elite, but as you probably are well aware of, for many years he was worn out as the Dodgers got to post season and in the last few has been injured.  He is no longer the pitcher that he was and not even the Dodger Ace anymore. Obviously still a great pitcher, but that is not the issue.
The pitcher throws on average 62 – 65 % strikes.
If I extrapolate - no I am not a statistician - that means the pitcher is going to throw a minimum of 5 pitches per K and 6 per BB.  I think that is the difference between the Radtke and Kershaw stats.  More Ks and more BBs mean more pitches thrown - not even considering the arm stress of the faster pitches or the curve.  
I know Terry Ryan and pitch to contact are out, but I did want to look at some of the realities in todays baseball. 
Finally, I had to look at Warren Spahn, my all time favorite pitcher who lasted 21 years, pitched 5046 innings, started 635 games and relieved in 79 others and he completed 382 games. He struck out 2493 - just .5 per inning and averaged 8+ innings per start so this 363 win pitcher does not fit the current profile, but he does rank number 6 in wins all time despite serving in WWII missing three full seasons and serving at the Battle of the Bulge along with Yogi Berra, Ralph Houk, Cecil Travis, Hoyt Wilhelm and 21 other players from MLB.  The war has nothing to do with this topic except that it robbed some years from each.  Pitchers of Spahn's era had different expectations, I understand that.  Today with the HOF talk still in our minds Roger Clemens is often referred to in modern terms as the greatest pitcher (not by me) and he pitched 24 seasons - with the war years similar to what Spahn would have had.  He had 709 starts and completed 118. With almost as many Ks as innings pitched he was the beginning of the current era and Spahn was the end of the previous era.  Clemens averaged 6.9 innings per start. 

Okay, CBA negotiations are going nowhere fast, the start of spring training is only a wish, games are somewhere out there in the distant future, we're getting tired of reading about hypothetical trades, we're contemplating stepping in front of a pitching machine loaded with rocks... what can a fan do to get his baseball fix?
Some time ago, probably 20 or so years back, during another long Minnesota winter, I began writing a baseball novel. I dicked around with it every winter since, adding a little, revising a little, revising earlier revisions a little, etc. etc. Well, defying my wife's skepticism, (though she's usually right) I finally finished it. That's right... It's done. Miracle of miracles!
Anyway, being a Twins fan, I centered the story around a mythical Twins organization, so there's a contraction sub-plot cooked in there and you might recognize a fictional version of a well-known Minnesota character or two, but it mostly revolves a young pitching prospect that loses his way, overcomes some personal failures and eventually works his way back to what he was born to do; pitch in the major leagues.
Appropriately enough, it's entitled "The Prospect" and is slowly becoming available through a number of e-book stores including Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Apple, Kobi, ya da ya da ya da. Cost you less than half the price of a stadium beer ($3.39) but it's a long read that should last you through the baseball drought till spring. Then if the lock-out isn't yet over, well, I'll have to start writing another baseball book.
https://books2read.com/u/m2YaJ7

The Twins have some holes coming into the 2022 season, some question marks, and some big decisions to make. Whilst most offseasons of late seem to have been kind of quiet and at times last-minute in terms of moves, this offseason has the potential to be very busy for us. There is a clear need to upgrade the pitching - having penciled in Ober and Ryan as our only lock starters makes me more than a little anxious - and there is a big gaping hole opening up at shortstop. Where we don’t seem to need to put any money, though, is designated hitter. 
Let me get this out of the way - I love Nelson Cruz. What Twins fan doesn’t? For nostalgia’s sake, who wouldn’t love to see Nelly come back for another season at Target Field in ‘22? It would feel good, and we’d have pimp-robes back in the dugout and Miguel Sano would be the happiest man alive. He had a long lasting impact on the clubhouse culture and was an outstanding leader and player. But is it necessary? 
We managed the rest of the year without a true DH and we also saw Nelly’s numbers dip a little after he made it to Florida. It’s hard to tell whether he just didn’t feel right in Tampa or whether it was the inevitable beginning of Father Time making up ground and starting to catch up to him. Just looking at the dollars involved, we forked out $13M for Nelson Cruz in 2021 and whilst he was invaluable to us when we expected that we were truly contending, hitting is not the priority any more, not since the pitching staff exploded. The Twins have DH options that involve zero dollar investment above what’s already been committed, enough to rotate the DH through a few players without even thinking - even if we lose one or two as trade bait. 
Josh Donaldson - Even though he’s the best defensive 3B we have, and even though he was one of our more productive players in this disastrous 2021 season, he has a storied history of injury to his legs. He can still hit the snot out of a baseball, though, and still shows enough hustle that you trust him hitting for your team. Likely eventual third baseman Jose Miranda looks likely to get a big league callup this season after demolishing the minors, and having Donaldson on the roster while we blood the new guy isn’t a bad idea. He definitely stepped up as a leader after the departure of Cruz, and has repeatedly stated that he’s here to win, and he believes we can win. If the Twins go all in and want to contend next season, I believe Donaldson does need to be on the roster, and it goes double if Cruz isn’t on it. I’ll take him at third or designated hitter just to protect those calves, I’m not fussy.
Miguel Sano - He’s not a great defender, and he’s streakier than a good cut of bacon. We’re well aware that he strikes out a lot. A whole lot. But when he hits the ball, he murders it’s entire bloodline and obliterates it from history (see this shot from August where he murdered a baseball with the longest HR of the year). I’m banking that Kirilloff will be back in action next season and if he picks up right where he left off, he may well play himself into the 1B role regardless of how bad Sano wants it. Kirilloff struck out a little more than Josh Donaldson, a little less than Byron Buxton (and a lot less than Sano), and went out for wrist surgery carrying a higher average than Sano, Kepler and late season hero Nick Gordon. Sano would also find himself a possible (not probable due to aforementioned strikeouts) trade target if the NL adopts the DH as well.
Mitch Garver - I have a lot to say about catchers, and I have already posted about that here, but in my mind, Garver is the best catcher we have because of offense alone. He’s average to good as a catcher, not fantastic. Both Jeffers and Rortvedt have projected defensively better, but their bats are stone cold. That being said, Garver can’t (and shouldn’t) catch every game, and he could easily play a couple at DH to have a low stress day. He was having a good season until an unlucky injury landed him on a surgeon’s table, and was having flashes of that good even being great. I think he’s going to get interest from trade candidates but I like him hanging around. 
Brent Rooker - A lot of people like to mention Rooker sliding into the DH role, but his 2021 performance doesn’t paint a promising offensive picture. Baseball Savant has him profiled as a similar batter to Niko Goodrum and Chris Taylor - neither of those guys are superstars either, but they have him beat because they have defensive homes. Rooker would be trying to figure into an already crowded outfield situation and might very well find himself starting the season in St Paul. That isn’t to say he couldn’t fight his way back up, but he’s definitely at the back of the pack when we speak of designated hitters.
Luis Arraez - He certainly seems like the odd man out in a field full of hitters who’ve been known to crack one over the fence. But someone who puts the ball in play like Arraez, particularly against righties, shouldn’t be ignored. He has a phenomenal eye at the plate, with a tight 9.1% strikeout rate over his majors career, and he puts the ball in play with great consistency. He may not be the guy who hits you a walk off homer, but he would definitely put the ball in play for a runner to make their way home, and that’s just as valuable. Add into the mix he’s also jostling for playing time in a roster full of plug and play types (Miranda, Larnach, Gordon, Kirilloff) with admittedly better defensive upsides, and he might see some time at DH while other people are trying to slot into homes or spelling short injured stints for other players.
Now, as I mentioned above, there’s a solid chance a couple of these guys get traded this offseason. Donaldson would be prime candidate if someone was willing to take on his $21M paycheck, Sano is figured to earn $8M which isn’t bad, Garver will get plenty of sniffs since he’s projected to earn just $3M in his final year of arbitration, and Arraez is probably a good candidate to bundle with a prospect given how cloudy his future is becoming. Some of our up and comers could very well spend time in DH as well - if Miranda's bat holds up as well in the bigs as it did in the minors, he'd be a certainty to put in a few appearances there. But even if there is an aggressive trade market coming, I’m confident that we have enough bats around to not have to sign a designated hitter for the 2022 season. I’m not saying a Nelson Cruz reunion wouldn’t be beautiful, but it does seem like an extraneous pressure on the payroll that we could probably do without. 
 

Back in March, Matthew Trueblood wrote an excellent article on Twins Daily about what a potential Byron Buxton extension would look like. Now, obviously this was before Buxton’s phenomenal (injury plagued, but still phenomenal) 2021 campaign. After the season Buxton had, his value for a future extension skyrocketed.
With Byron Buxton up until about 2019, the main question was always: “Will he be able to hit major league pitching?”. He always played phenomenal defense, ran the bases ridiculously well, and had an incredibly strong arm. He just had to put it together at the plate. Well, since the start of 2019, Buxton is 20th in the MLB in OPS and 4th in the MLB in slugging percentage. Buxton has really put it together at the plate in the last 3 seasons and it has been a joy to watch. 
Before we get into his contract specifics, let’s highlight how special Byron Buxton is.
5-Tool Player
Byron Buxton helps the Twins win games, plain and simple. Since the beginning of 2019, the Twins are 104-68 when Buxton plays, and 106-106 when he does not. This means that they play at roughly a 98 win pace when he is on the field and an 81 win pace when he is not. This is the difference between not making the playoffs at all and getting home-field advantage in the playoffs. Let’s take a dive into what makes Buxton such a difference-maker for the Twins.
Hitting
I mentioned earlier how Buxton has really found his stride with his swing. Back in May of 2019, towards the beginning of Buxton’s outbreak, Parker Hageman wrote a phenomenal article about Byron Buxton’s swing. He took a deep dive into the swing adjustments Buxton had made that year that led to his success. Ever since then, his career has taken off.
Buxton has been riddled with injuries his entire career, that is no secret. But since 2019, out of all players with a maximum of 700 plate appearances, Buxton leads with 102 extra base hits. The next closest player is Buxton’s teammate, Mitch Garver with 79 extra base hits. With limited appearances, Buxton is thriving.
Using Baseball Savant’s handy Affinity feature, you can see which players have the most similar batted ball profiles to each other. In 2021, the most similar batters to Buxton were Yordan Alvarez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Rafael Devers, Salvador Perez, Josh Donaldson, and Aaron Judge. Buxton is up there with the cream of the crop. If you follow baseball at all, you know all of these guys are absolute stars and Buxton’s name belongs in that conversation as well.
2021 was his best year yet. He had a 169 wRC+, had 42 extra base hits (19 home runs), and a 1.005 OPS. Buxton proved in 2021 that he couldn’t just hit, but absolutely MASH major league pitching.
Defense
Buxton has always been elite defensively, winning a platinum glove as the AL’s best defensive player in 2017. Since 2016, Buxton has 58 outs above average (OAA), the 5th most among all center fielders. All of the players ahead of him (Lorenzo Cain, Kevin Kiermaier, Billy Hamilton, and Ender Inciarte) played at least 140 more games than Buxton in that span. If Buxton had played 140 more games, he would have the most OAA by 10 outs. It is safe to say that when Buxton is healthy he is the best defensive CF in baseball. He also has an absolute cannon in the outfield. His arm strength has been measured at 99 MPH before, so he definitely has an above average arm.
Speed
Buxton has always been one of the fastest players in the MLB. In 2021, Buxton was in the 99th percentile in sprint speed. His average sprint speed was 30 ft/sec and he had the fastest average home to first time at 4.00 sec. Buxton is a game-changer on the bases and has made a huge impact on many games on the basepaths, most notably walking off the Detroit Tigers on a seemingly routine ground ball to the shortstop. 
Overall Value
Since 2019, Buxton has been worth 8.1 fWAR in 187 games, or a pace of 7 fWAR per 162 games. To put that number into perspective, there were zero position players with a WAR of 7 or over in 2021. In the last full season, 2019, the only players with a WAR 7 or above were Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Marcus Semien, and Anthony Rendon.
Buxton’s WAR in 2021 was 4.2 over 61 games. Extrapolated to 162 games, that would be the equivalent of 11.2. That is absolutely ridiculous. That would be tied for the 17th best single season of all time in terms of WAR.
Injuries
Just looking at his raw per 162 numbers, you would think that the Twins should sign Buxton to a 10 year, $500 million extension. Unfortunately, Buxton has been injury prone throughout his career. As of July 2021, Buxton had only played 181 of 484 possible games since 2018. It is hard to justify giving him a big extension if he isn’t going to be healthy for a majority of it.
Extension structure
In short, I would offer Buxton an extension over seven years. It will start in 2023 and go through 2029, his age 29 through 35 season. As Buxton ages, his defense and speed will most likely deteriorate and he will not be as valuable. You also have to factor in his injury history so you won’t be paying full price.
Consider the following:
Since 2019, Buxton has played 187 of a possible 384 games, or 48% of possible games.  Since 2019, Buxton has accumulated 8.1 WAR in 187 games, or 7 WAR/162 games According to Fangraphs, you should pay $8M/WAR. So,
If Buxton were to play 162 games, he would be worth 7 WAR x $8M/WAR = $56M/year This is obviously egregious, especially considering the Twins usually have a payroll from 125-140M.
According to spotrac, with the exception of the Dodgers, the top payrolls are right around $200M. We are going to assume those teams are able to use the $8M/WAR calculation
Since the Twins will use maximum 140M of payroll, 70% of what the top payrolls use, we will also use 0.7 as our multiplier for the WAR value calculation.
$8M/WAR x 0.7 = $5.6M/WAR
Using our new 5.6M/WAR, he would be worth roughly $39M a year if he played 162. I think this is fair for a player of his caliber. He has been an MVP level player the last 3 seasons, and shows no signs of stopping.
Besides injuries.
Since Buxton has only played about 48% of possible games, I would pay him 48% of that $39M per year.
39M x 0.48 = about $19M a year. This is the base salary I would give Buxton. His base contract should be 7 years, $133 million
However, we should account for the fact that there is a chance he remains healthy. This is where it gets tricky. This is where I bring in incentives to the contract.
Buxton’s 7 WAR per 162 is worth 0.043 WAR per game. The current contract is assuming he plays 80 games If Buxton plays 120 games, he will get the original 19 million plus an additional amount of money We will determine this amount of money by multiplying his WAR per game by the additional 40 games he will be playing
40 games x 0.043 WAR per game = 1.7 WAR x $5.6M per WAR = $9.5M If Buxton plays 120 games, he should earn an additional 10 million.
For 130 games, he will be worth an additional 2.4 million using that formula For 140 games, he will be worth another 2.4 million And for 150, he will be worth 2.4 million more. Contract Summary
Base contract: 7 years, $133 million ($19M AAV)
120 games incentive: $9.5M/yr ($28.5M AAV)
130 games incentive: $2.4M/yr ($30.9M AAV)
140 games incentive: $2.4M/yr ($33.3M AAV)
150 games incentive: $2.4M/yr ($35.7M AAV)
If Buxton plays 150 games, he could be making up to $35.7 million per year. This is the contract I would propose to Buxton because he would be getting a good amount of guaranteed money and it also helps him understand that playing a certain amount of games could get him an absurd amount of money.
How does this contract compare?
A salary of 19M per year (if he meets no incentives) would make him the 27th highest paid position player in baseball. Since 2019, he is 33rd in WAR among all position players, so this base contract would be just about right. If he meets all of the incentives, he would be the highest paid position player in baseball, which is fair considering the amount of talent he has and his production over a full healthy season would be at an MVP level. I think at his peak, he will play about 120-130 games, making his salary between 28 and 31 million. This would put him in the range of the 5th to 8th highest position player in the league. 
TL: DR version
Pay Buxton a base salary of $19 million a year for 7 years, with games played incentives from 120 games to 150 games of various amounts that could net him up to $35.7 million per year.
Conclusion
Byron Buxton is a generational type of talent and I haven’t seen anyone like him in a Twins uniform my whole life. It would be a mistake to let him go just because of financial concerns. He is a player that you would rather overpay than not pay at all, so priority number ONE this offseason needs to be extending him. If there’s one player to offer this type of contract to, it’s Buck.
Thank you for reading, and Go Twins.
 

Horse and rider emerged from the yawning chasm beneath the field, as if escaping the jaws of some unfeeling limestone beast. He sat his horse and glassed downcountry. Through a veil of dust coppered by bloodred sunset he could make out the number 411 painted on a fence. Just beyond that number, swaddled in bootblack darkness, lay his warrant. A place whose dominion belonged neither to God nor man but a purgatory of whose provenance none were certain and all feared but him. He would go to the bullpen and exact a confession of all its truths. 
He scabbarded his rifle and put bootheel to horse’s flanks and they rode on. As they rode he looked up at the flags mounted atop the edifice surrounding him, flags that pointed downward sullenly like some ancient penitents. They bore the crude markings of years once thought remarkable and now thought of not at all, as though they belonged to another world entire. 1965. 1987. 1991. A world beyond imagining, preserved only in ancient scribes’ faded memories, palimpsests upon which now showed only the bottomless abyss of now, faint tracings of Jeff Reardon giving way to the stark outline of Alexander Colomé. Though lately he hadn’t been too bad. They rode on.
He looked into the stands at the fans, their brokenness unable to be hidden by the grotesqueries they were committing with the barrelsized ales and meats lacquered with sauce embalmed in bread they unceasingly lifted to their mouths, trying without recompense to atone for what they were witnessing of their own free will. Is this how one baseballs? No it is not. Only the damned baseball such as this.
Here was another. He held a crude placard aloft, beseeching an unseeable and unknowable God, Circle Me Bert. A plea for a faithless arbiter to encase him in a telastractic orb, thus consecrating him as worthy of notice on the sprawling contraption electric, so that all his kin may know his life was of some brief consequence before his vanishing from the world, yet unaware this judge had been judged himself to be without merit and banished from the Hadean landscape upon which he now trod. 
He arrived. He pulled up the reins and dismounted and knocked on the door. From within he heard low murmurs and scuffling of metal on dirt. Sounds unencumbered by bravery. No answer. He knocked again. Silence. There will not be a third knock, he said. 
He heard a thump, a creak, and the door swung open. The reckoning was at hand.

By David Weinshilboum
 
In 2013, the Golden State Warriors basketball team seemed on the verge. A franchise that had been a laughingstock for decades had been to the playoffs two years in a row. Led by coach Mark Jackson and a young injury-prone sharpshooter by the name of Stephen Curry, the steam had suddenly thrust itself into relevancy.
 
Yet, just three days after a playoff loss in 2013, the Warriors fired Jackson (who had a year left on his contract). He was a good coach who had many positive attributes. The team was headed in the right direction. Why fire him?
 
The Warriors hired Steve Kerr who implemented a new offense that maximized Curry’s long-range shooting abilities. The team went on to win Championships in three of the next four seasons. As the tired sports cliché goes, the rest is history.
The Minnesota Twins – until this train-wreck of a year—were a team and organization on the rise. Then rookie manager Rocco Baldelli led the Twins to a 100-win season in 2019 and another division championship in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
 
Today the Twins are mired in a disaster season that simply isn’t going to get better. Their best player is injured and half a dozen others are playing well below expectations (Sano, Maeda, Kepler, Polanco and, sorry to put this in print, Colome). When the Twins 2021 season comes to a close, they will be a failure: no playoffs and well below expectations of 90-plus wins.
 
In October, the Twins will have to ask themselves an important question: is Baldelli the leader who can take this team and franchise to the next level? I would argue that, for some very rational, logical reasons, the answer is no.
 
The Twins Twitterverse wants Rocco’s head now, and a few days ago, during a television broadcast, a fan wandered behind home plate and held a sign calling for a managerial change. There’s a lot of emotion going into the Fire Rocco movement. Baldelli has NEVER been a good in-game manager, oftentimes making fans scratch their heads or, at times, yank tufts of hair from scalp. His choice of defensive substitutions, pinch hitters and pinch runners feels arbitrary at best. The most obvious example was a couple weeks ago in Oakland when, in extra innings, Baldelli pinch ran Travis Blankenhorn for Josh Donaldson. The move compromised defense in a big way. And Baldelli made matters worse when he put second-baseman Luis Arraez at third and Blankenhorn at second – eroding the leather at TWO positions instead of just one. The game ended when Blankenhorn booted one grounder and Arraez air-mailed a routine throw to first.
 
Another reason fans might dislike him is his press conference demeanor: he is dullard diplomat who makes former Vikings Coach/statue Bud Grant look emotional. Worse, he never calls out terrible plays – both physical or mental – and seems to dismiss garbage baseball as “part of the game.”
 
Neither of these negative attributes are fireable offenses, though.
 
Baldelli is a good manager. Players love him. They want to play for him. He is flexible and allows them to select preparation that fits their needs. He maximized player abilities in 2019, getting the most out of Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver and Max Kepler.
 
All good things must come to an end, though. And Baldelli’s millennial approach to players might not be as conducive to good baseball as it once was. This year, many players aren’t properly prepared for games. Too often, players seem to be using their first at-bat to “learn” about a pitcher’s repertoire instead of reviewing the scouting reports. Players appear ok with early-inning strikeouts since they’ve seen the stuff. It’s not a stretch to assume many Twins are taking advantage of Rocco’s laissez faire approach to being game ready.
 
Also, Rocco’s concern for injured players seems incredibly detrimental to the team, particularly given how the roster has been assembled. The Front Office has routinely preferred more pitchers and a short bench. But Red-Cross Rocco sits players if they report a hangnail. Worse, he won’t even consider them for pinch hitting or late-inning defense. There have been over a dozen instances this season when Baldelli has chosen to pinch hit a weaker bat instead of a resting star who is at 90 percent. All for the sake of future health. In a year where rosters are 26 players deep, the Twins have been playing with 22 or 23 players.
 
Is Baldelli having a bad year? Absolutely. When the leader of the team forgets how many mound visits have been made, it’s a bad, bad look. The Twins in many ways have played the way Baldelli has managed this year: haphazardly, unevenly and obliviously. Baldelli certainly has the ability to manage better than he has. But when his contract ends, the Twins must decide whether he is the best fit for the club. Their decision will be huge because this team is on the precipice of irrelevancy.
 
David Weinshilboum lives in California and bemoans this year’s Twins ineptitude from afar. Follow @weinshie on Twitter.

The Twins play their 30th game this afternoon and are currently 11-18. They've been beset by bad luck, bad play and have taken a beating with two rule changes (extra-inning runner on second, 7-inning games for doubleheaders). How do they get out of this funk? I'm sure many in the organization will preach patience and they may be right, but that isn't any fun. Here are some possibilities for change that might help the team:
 
Role change. We've already seen one role change. At least temporarily Alexander Columé is not going to see high-leverage innings. Columé has been a huge disappointment and even when he has worked scoreless innings, he's been shaky. The problem is that taking Columé out of high leverage situations leaves the Twins with few good options, particularly when going 6 or more innings for a starter is a rarity. I think one pitching role change that should be made is to use Taylor Rogers in non-save high leverage situations as happened early in 2019 and sometimes use him for multiple innings. Rogers shouldn't be used in back-to-back days. Moving Alcala to high leverage situations seems to be gradually happening. If things continue to go bad, it makes sense to have him give a shot as a closer. Position players--it seems to me that both Polanco and Kepler should have their roles diminished from full-time regular to something different. Kepler can play a corner and center and Polanco has played short and second, maybe Max should be slotted as the fourth OF or at least platooned with Garlick. I think giving Polanco the role of three-position infielder wouldn't be a stretch. He could get some at-bats as a platoon partner for my choice of regular second baseman (Arraez) and left-handed at-bats in place of Simmons and when Donaldson takes a day off (or is injured).
 
Promotions/demotions. Assuming that Alex Kirilloff is in the big leagues to stay, when healthy the Twins have one extra position player and someone will have to be sent to the minor leagues or released. Discussion has centered on Jake Cave. Several others could be sent down and that doesn't begin to discuss the pitching staff. Many pitchers'performances could merit their demotion.
 
Trades. It is unlikely that anyone will make a significant trade this early in the year. However, the Twins would be a good candidate for a major trade nearer the trade deadline. They have some redundancy (left handed hitting corner outfielders) and holes that need patching (bullpen, perhaps catching) and many candidates to trade. They also have a lot of players who would be free agents after this season. I do wonder if someone who was considered a cornerstone (Polanco, Kepler, Sanó) could be traded. None of these guys have performed remotely well so far but an uptick could make them more marketable. I have to believe that the Twins will bring in new pitchers either in the bullpen or the rotation. What they have at this time in the bullpen just hasn't worked.
 
Personally, I think the Twins will need to do a little bit of everything to turn the corner. I am a proponent of changing roles. I think Kepler and Polanco could be candidates to have limited roles. The Twins need to add at least one strong arm in the bullpen, most likely by trade and Trevor Larnach is reputed to be nearly as much a sure thing as a hitter as Alex Kirilloff, plus he is a better outfielder. There is too much talent for the club to continue to play sub.400 baseball, but I think they need to make changes immediately.

The month of April for the Twins felt like the entire 2020 year as we watched the Twins battle injury, Covid-19 protocols, and sluggish bats. It felt like the remaining six months of baseball were going to be long and painful, but nevertheless, we showed up. Whether it’s to cling to that last bit of hope, or to complain and feel validated in our complaint, we show up. Eventually the Twins also showed up, giving us the feeling that things are starting to finally come together.
April 28th, the Twins or the management decided enough was enough and the team awoke. Since April 28th, we have been hitting .272 and have one four out of the five games. What’s been the change? Is it Simmon’s coming back to us? Donaldson finally hitting the ball and finding the zone, or Kepler getting back into his groove? A combination of all of it and finding chemistry behind the plate, young team members showing up, and defense makes a huge difference.
 
Kenta Maeda, who last night (May 3, 2020) showed us that he is stronger than the demons that kept him from having a winning April. Last night, Kenta laid his demons to rest and gave us the fire we have been waiting for, 7 scoreless innings and a little more variety in his pitches. Kenta has been struggling and most of his pitches have been right over the plate giving the batter’s the perfect chance to hit dingers off the all-star. Maeda was the perfect puzzle piece to fit into the offense's game last night to bolster back.
 
With Nelly, Buck, and Kepler in a slump, it left us to wonder if the Bomba Squad was dead, but like everything else this week, we have seen a complete 180 turn to the life of this team. The bats have been on fire, bombas are flying and the newest member of the team, Kiriloff is showing this team what he is capable of. Kiriloff seemed to have paved the way for the Bomba squad to find their mo-jo as he continued to rake in the homeruns and the others followed suit giving the Twins some of the best leads of the season.
 
It’s early, I get it, it’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon, but if you can’t even get off the starting block, what are you doing? With the central division being as messy as it is, the talent the Twins have, we should not be second to last. I truly believe with the chemistry we have seen the past five games, we are fully equipped and capable to handle the sixteen day stretch of games. They will need all the strength, rest and power to get through this month. May the Force be with them….and May the Fourth be with you.

The last time I witnessed the Minnesota Twins play in person was almost two years ago. Back then Corona was an alcoholic beverage; police brutality was a back-burner issue; the likes of Kobe Bryant, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Alex Trebek all had tomorrows to experience. On the diamond, the Twins were the talk of the nation. They destroyed baseballs and home run records en route to a 100-win season.
 
I attended a game in Oakland (as I am a displaced Minnesotan). It was July 2019. The Twins' offense did its part: Sano launched a towering bomb to left field and catcher Jason Castro rocketed two homers into the Oakland night. Jake Odorizzi was about to be named to the All Star Game, but he didn't fare well, giving up a grand slam to former Twin Chris Herrmann. The A's won 8-6. Granted, the final score was not what I'd wanted, but that didn't overshadow the joy of being a fan, being present.
 
I tried to attend a game last year, was ready for the 2020 Oakland home opener against Minnesota. Of course, we all know how that turned out. The country -- in an attempt to slow the pandemic -- went on lockdown. The baseball season hit pause. The only thing that filled stadiums were the echoes of emptiness.
 
When I purchased tickets to attend today's game, I was certain my baseball drought would be over. Like over 200 million Americans, I had been vaccinated. Normalcy felt so close; hope infused my soul.
 
Then reality.
 
First Andrelton Simmons. Then others. Later, Kyle Garlick. An outbreak had infiltrated my team's clubhouse. This wasn't supposed to happen. Game after game postponed. The Twins' west-coast swing was turning into a swing and miss.
 
I was certain that the baseball gods had it out for me.
 
Then late word: Twins baseball was a go. The Twins would travel to Oakland and take the field. Hope. Normalcy. Baseball.
 
So my jaded self will be in the stands, observing it all. Yes, I'll shake my head at any Twin miscues and just might curse a certain closer if a bullpen collapse occurs. I'll complain, cheer then complain some more. But I'll appreciate it, all of it: the big swings, line drives and flashes of leather. Tomorrow's not promised, so I'll enjoy today.
***
 
Follow this jaded Twins fan --who most certainly will get a contact high at the Oakland Coliseum on 4/20 -- on Twitter. I'm @weinshie

Baseball Books!?
 
During these down days away from Twins baseball -- when I'm not so sure I even want to see the Twins play baseball again -- I accidentally read a book about baseball. How do you accidentally read a book about baseball?
 
Well, I know of this author, John Fante, but I hadn't read 1933 Was a Bad Year, which happens to be about a high school senior (it's not a children's book at all), presumably written in the 1930s. A fun short novel about a left-armed high school boy in Colorado who believes without a doubt that he's destined for the Big Leagues, and the narrator is crafty enough to not let us know if he's honestly good or if he’s deluding himself. The book is set during is a snowy spring and not an actual baseball is thrown.
 
A book I really like, and have read twice, is The Universal Baseball Association, Inc. J. Henry Waugh Proprietor, by Robert Coover. All about the dark obsessive underbelly of a baseball fan. Mr. Waugh lives increasingly in a fantasy world in which he creates entire sports teams, but not only that, he creates their wives, their after-game dinners, their drinking habits, the owners who own and trade and trade them, etc. The whole nine imaginary yards. It's based on a dice game J. Henry plays, which determines the course of action – similar to Strat-o-Matic baseball. But what happens when the outcome that is necessary to keep the illusion alive is not what in the dice roll?
 
When I was in Junior High (full disclosure: I’m 63) I read Going, Going Gone, and then, this winter, I found it on Amazon and I reread it. It’s still pretty good, surprisingly. About a high school boy who’s a confident home run slugger who willfully ignores his defensive weaknesses. He just assumes his hitting will get him to the Bigs. He learns, after being benched by a his tough-minded coach, and support from his teammates, that defense is as important as offense.
 
The Kid Who Batted 1.000, written by Bob Allison, tickled me when I was a kid. (No, not that Bob Allison.) A country boy can’t hit, but he sure can take a walk ... Hey, Astudillo, you ought to read this one! ... He walks and walks and walks. He’s a miracle walker! But when push comes to shove, and a hit is needed and a walk won't do, will the kid come through? It's a children’s book, after all.
 
The Science of Hitting by Ted Williams. Man, I wish I’d known about this book when I was in high school! Ted was knowledgeable about the craft of beyond belief. It’s a must read for any age, 1975 or 2075. Was he not the greatest hitter of all time? Perhaps, knowing that he missed whole seasons flying fighter jets in both WWII and Korea.
 
The Teammates: A Portrait of a Friendship by David Halberstam. About the enduring friendship between four Red Sox greats, Williams, Pesky, Dom DiMaggio and some other guy. As I recall it tells of their youthful on-the-field exploits as well as it explores their lifelong friendship as they age out of their playing days into old age. I loved this book but don't remember much about it.
 
The Natural by Bernard Malamud. I found the prose dull as dust, didn’t get very far into it before I put it down. Same with The Art of Fielding, published just a couple of years ago, and quite popular; I expected to like it but lost interest and laid it down to rest next to The Natural.
 
Like a chicken, I've just scratched the surface of possible baseball books ...
 
Have you read any of these books?
 
What did you think?
 
What other baseball books have you read that you would recommend or steer us away from?

After suffering a 4 day break in baseball for COVID 19 precautions, I had been looking forward to Tuesday night. It seems that the Twins while having a great cohesion had issues since day one. The Twins have played through Donaldson’s day 1 injury, missing Buck due to a stomach virus (jury is still out on that one) and Simmons stepping out for COVID protocol on April 14th, but the one thing the Twins still cannot seem to play through is their pitching. The double headers, late nights and early games gassed out our pitching to the point where Willians Astudillo would step into the pitching line up - in an already losing game - to the Angels showing his skills and fast pitch form to the MLB.
 
Matt Shoemaker, a pitcher the Twins acquired in February 2021, was an all-star in his own right when he played in 2014 as a rookie. As reported by Do-Hyoung Park, Shoemaker has been struggling with an onslaught of injuries since 2017 and has been continuing to fall further down after 2019 when he tore his ACL. The Twins, fully expecting him to be healthy and the No. 4 contributor to the rotation, spent 2 million dollars on the 34 year old right hander, who barely had played any games since 2017.
 
Shoemaker has only pitched in 2 games thus far for the Twins and neither were truly magical or anything that showed promise. His first game on the road in Detroit, where he pitched six innings and only one run got let in the 5th in the 22 batters he saw. He would take home the win in that game. In the next game against Seattle, he would pitch 5 innings and give up 4 runs and 7 hits leaving the game with an ERA of 4.09. The longer he stayed in the more damage that got done.
 
Tonight, after sitting out for 9 days, the RHP would once again take the mound against the A’s. The Oakland A’s are barely over .500 - a game that could have been our first W on the road since April 7th against the Tigers - and get us back on track for what started out as looking like a winning season. Shoemaker came out and pitched 3.1 innings and in that time allowed two runs and had 67 pitches before Alcala came in as the relief pitcher in the 4th. The Twins would fall 7-0 in game one of a double header after a grand slam served up by Alcala, accompanied by the runners left on base from when Shoemaker was on the mound. Not the start to the night the team and the fans were looking forward to.
 
In his first three games Shoemaker has continued to slide down hill. It may be just acclimating to the team, maybe it’s the 9 day rest...but the trend is showing that once again, the Twins took a chance on an arm that isn’t truly benefiting the roster and is leaving us with leaning on other utility players like Astudillo to come in and give us the outs we need. This “Shoe” just may not be the right fit.

The Twins have Jorge Polanco at SS. In 2019 he was an all star. Now all of Twins fandom wants him at utility and hope for the team to sign another SS. I am not sure why. Our number one prospect remains Royce Lewis who is still listed as a SS who should be ready by the end of the year at least. So why do we want to demote Polanco and block Lewis? This is reasoning that does not work for me.
 
Then we have Wander Javier who came to us in the same international draft that produced Vladimir Guerrero, jr. and Yordan Alvarez. To say that he is behind them on the development level is an understatement. I am still not sure why he is rated so high as a prospect. He has had a hamstring injury during his 2016 debut, a torn labrum costing him all of 2018 and a strained quad keeping him from making his full-season debut in 2019. Then he came in and looked lost for 300 at bats. And MLB.com still has him listed at number nine.
 
Above him on the mlb.com site is Keoni Cavaco who is given great grades for athleticism, which is fine in the Olympics, but batting and fielding count in baseball. I am not sold on him. He was a fast riser in HS according to his notes. Another prospect who does not make my list.
 
At 17 is Nick Gordon. He seems to be on a slippery slope to a forgotten prospect, but I hope he will find a way to get to the majors someday. He just isn’t going to make the team as a starter.
 
Will Holland is next on the prospect list at 19. Notes about him say that he was doing great at Auburn until his Junior year where he bombed and slipped to fifth round. Then he came to rookie ball and still bombed. Not looking good.
 
Today the Twins made an big international signing – Danny De Andrade who is 16. He could be projected to arrive when Lewis runs out of arbitration and signs elsewhere. He is big, potential middle of the order project (typically that means not staying at SS). At 16 he is a project. I know what my grandsons are like at that age – I would not sign them for $2.2 million and I love them. If he makes it he will probably replace Donaldson and not Lewis.
 
Finally the second signing is Fredy LaFlor who is already projected in the mlb.com writeup to shift to second or CF. He said to be a high energy top of the lineup prospect.
 
So there is the Twins SS list. I would like to see us develop one of them into the next great SS rather than sign one who is already down the road of his career and will be overpaid. How do you see these names playing out?
 
The Athletic summary of international signings did not include the Twins - disappointing. https://theathletic.com/2326602/2021/01/16/mlb-international-signing-period-day-1/?source=weeklyemail For those of us who do not know who they are it is important to have outside opinions.

Over the past couple of weeks, it has been rumored that the Twins are acting as a shark circling blood in the water. Waiting for an opportunity to make a big move like they did last offseason, it’s been anyone’s guess as to what that may be. Today it was reported that the move could come up the middle.
 
Trevor Bauer is the premier free agent this winter, but shortstop talent is aplenty as well. Andrelton Simmons is a perennial Gold Glove type, while both Didi Gregorious and Marcus Semien bring a more balanced offering in a stopgap type situation. Ken Rosenthal reported today that Minnesota is considering moving Luis Arraez and shifting Jorge Polanco to second base. The question then becomes, who plays short?
 
Arraez broke onto the scene in 2019 and immediately became a fan favorite that looked the part of a Tony Gwynn clone. With great command of the zone and an innate ability to make strong contact, multiple batting titles were projected for his future. Dealing with a slow start in 2020, and lingering knee issues, he finished the year off fine. It’s probably fair to describe him as virtually what we see being who he is. There’s going to be a high average, he won’t strike out, and he’s passable at best on defense. On its own, that works fine for Minnesota.
 
The problem here is that Jorge Polanco is miscast as a shortstop. His arm strength is questionable, and while improved in 2020, his range is suspect. That’s easier to overlook when the power production is what it was in 2019, but he dealt with a nagging ankle issue last season and just underwent another surgery to correct it. There was some talk he could take over as Minnesota’s replacement for Marwin Gonzalez, but you’d probably be sacrificing lineup prowess in that scenario. Moving him to second base seems like a much more fluid fit.
 
So, what happens at short? Royce Lewis is obviously seen as the heir, but there’s plenty of warts to dissect there. His 2019 was not good, and despite glowing reports from the CHS Field alternate site last season, 2020 featured no real game action. A handful of national names continue to suggest he’s not a fit at short long term, and a spot in centerfield makes more sense. That alone isn’t enough to bump him off the position now, but it might be worthy to consider him less than untouchable.
 
At the current juncture two of the game’s best shortstops are on the trade market. Cleveland is going to move Francisco Lindor this offseason, and the Colorado Rockies should be sending Trevor Story out. Neither are under team control past 2022 and as always you have the Coors effect in play (.760 OPS away .994 OPS home) for Story. Both players are going to command an absolute premium and depending on what Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are willing to give up, the hope would likely be an extension works out following a swap.
 
Despite lost revenues in 2020, the Minnesota Twins can’t afford to wait out their next move. The farm system has some very good top prospects, and the depth is also pretty solid. It’s this core however that the front office has been fine tuning, and the window to go all in is the immediate future. With Josh Donaldson having three years left on his mega deal, pairing him and the homegrown core should be of the utmost importance. What impact Royce Lewis or Jordan Balazovic have as key pieces two or three years from now could be the start of an entirely new competitive cycle.
 
This front office can’t go all in and throw care to the wind, but they’ve also never shown a reason to believe that’s how they would operate. Donaldson seemed like a great fit for Minnesota all along last winter, and the Twins picked their spot to get the deal done. Nothing may be imminent on a big splash front right now, but the makings of smoke seem to be billowing and there’s plenty of reason to fan for some flame.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

There’s been no larger point of contention for the Minnesota Twins in 2019 than the bullpen. While the starting rotation has dealt with ebbs and flows, it was the relief corps that constantly faced criticism. After acquiring Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson at the deadline, the group improved. Brusdar Graterol has now debuted, and both Trevor May and Tyler Duffey have stepped up. It’s a September call up that could be among the most beneficial though.
 
Midway through the summer of 2018 Paul Molitor’s best and most trusted relief arm was Trevor Hildenberger. The side-armer owned a 2.80 ERA and .661 OPS against through his first 42 appearances a season ago. Unfortunately, those came in the Twins first 79 games. By all measures, Molitor had run him into the ground, and things went drastically off the tracks from there.
 
Hildenberger blew his first save on July 15 last year. He made 31 appearances from that point forward totaling a 9.64 ERA and 9.95 OPS against. Opposing batters teed off on his pitches and it carried over to the 2019 season. Starting the year in Rocco Baldelli’s pen, Trevor owned an 8.36 ERA through 14.0 IP before being optioned to Triple-A Rochester. The ineffectiveness continued there, and he was eventually put on the shelf.
 
Fast forward a few months and back to full health, Minnesota’s former high leverage on was on the track back to the bigs. Across eight post IL appearances (12.1 IP), Hildenberger owned a 0.73 ERA and .315 OPS against. He struck out ten batters and walked one while giving up just a single run on six hits. That’s obviously an incredibly small sample size, and almost half of that work came in the Gulf Coast League, but if we want encouraging signs then this is it.
 
There’s a lot we don’t yet know, and Baldelli doesn’t have much runway to figure things out. We can assume that Hildenberger will get something less than 15 innings the rest of the way to prove his value. What we do know is that this is a guy who has gotten it done for the Twins in the biggest of spots previously. Adding that type of arm to a Postseason run could be something substantial, and completely out of the question even a month ago.
 
With a lineup as good as Minnesota has, they’ll never find themselves out of a game. Now having significant options on the mound, they also find themselves in a much better position to make a run into October that had some serious uncertainties prior to the trade deadline. Adding pieces from outside of the organization was always going to happen. Arms emerging from within, and especially those who have previously shown a strong ability, is a testament to hard work and internal development.
 
If Hildenberger is truly back for Minnesota, that’s something everyone can get on board with.
 
For more from . Follow @tlschwerz

With two months gone in the season, the Minnesota Twins big league club has the best record in baseball. In the minors, unfortunately, many big prospects are injured, some for a long period including Brusdar Graterol, Akil Baddoo, Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Wells and Yunior Severino. However, there have been a number of bright spots in the minor league system. Many players have deservedly been already promoted this season. This list is for the players who should be moved up, and likely will be sometime relatively soon.
 
In this list, I avoided putting players in their first year with the level. Because of that, I did not put either Austin Schulfer or Gabe Snyder on this list, even though they have dominated at Low-A Cedar Rapids. Maybe they’ll make my August edition, if they are still with the Kernels at that time.
 
Honorable Mentions:
Michael Davis, SS, Cedar Rapids
Jared Akins, RF, Cedar Rapids
 
5. Gabriel Maciel, CF, Cedar Rapids
 
Maciel arrived in a July trade last season that sent Eduardo Escobar to Arizona. The 20-year-old is in the midst of his best year of full-season baseball. In his 30 games with the Kernels after the trade last season, he hit .263 and had an OPS of .683. He isn’t a power hitter, so his OPS will never be super high, but his OBP is .389, which is the best of his pro career, and his .728 OPS is the second-highest of his career. As a matter of fact, his OBP is the among the best in the Twins system, just behind Luis Arraez and Kernels teammate Gabe Snyder. Part of that strong OBP is his ability to draw walks, having coaxed 17 already this season. If Maciel keeps it up, I see him in Fort Myers sooner rather than later.
 
4. Jaylin Davis, RF, Pensacola
 
Davis is having one of his best seasons of pro ball. Not only is he hitting for power, his OBP is by far the best of his pro career at .386. That is helped by him cutting down on his strikeouts a bit and walking a lot more this season. In Fort Myers and Chattanooga last season, he combined to walk 44 times in 439 at-bats. However, in 142 at-bats this season, he already has 22 walks. Not only that, but his .430 slugging percentage is the best since he put up a .486 slugging percentage in 66 games with Cedar Rapids in the first half of 2017. He has a good batting average of .282 as well. Last year, in those 439 ABs, he had 11 homers, and he already has five this season. His numbers are up across the board, and should make an appearance in Rochester this season. However, Rochester is loaded at OF, so he might be blocked for the time being with Brent Rooker, LaMonte Wade, Luke Raley, Zander Wiel and Jake Cave all in New York.
 
3. Bryan Sammons, LHP, Fort Myers
 
Sammons has pitched extremely well in his first full season with the Miracle. Last year, he started the year in Cedar Rapids and dominated, going 5-5 with a 2.32 ERA, before being promoted to Fort Myers. In his first stint with the Miracle, he struggled, going 1-2 with an 8.49 ERA. He got a start with the Chattanooga Lookouts, but was knocked around there as well. He returned to Fort Myers to start 2019, and has been virtually unhittable. In his eight starts, he has given up four runs.....total. Sammons is 4-0 with a sparkling 0.94 ERA. He keeps the ball in the yard, having allowed just nine in his minor league career in 201.1 innings, and has given up just one in 38.1 innings this season. His strikeouts per nine innings is really good, as well, with 46 strikeouts in those 38.1 frames (10.8 K/9). Sammons’ .227 opposing batting average is impressive, and it is only a matter of time before he takes his talents to Pensacola to join the Blue Wahoos.
 
2. Hector Lujan, RHP, Fort Myers
 
Lujan got off to a slow start in 2019, as he allowed three runs in three innings in his first appearance of the season, and he allowed five in his first eight innings. Since then, he has been lights out. In his last 11 outings (21.1 innings), he has allowed just one earned run (0.43 ERA). Last season, he had a solid showing for the Miracle, going 5-5 with a 2.64 ERA. Although his numbers were solid across the board last year, he has improved significantly upon those numbers. He has a 1.84 ERA in 14 appearances. His strikeouts per nine innings rate has improved from 8.5 to nearly nine strikeouts per nine and from a 3.09/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio to 4.14/1. His batting average against has gone down significantly, from .248 in 2018 to .198 in 2019, and his WHIP has improved from 1.26 in 2018 to 0.95 in 2019. It is time for a challenge for Lujan, and I expect him to get that sometime in June.
 
1. Lewin Diaz, 1B, Fort Myers
 
Diaz was a big International Free Agent signing, and has had an up-and-down career so far with the Twins. He is just 22 years old, and doesn’t turn 23 until November. After a down season with the Miracle in 2018, he has turned the Florida State League into his personal launching pad. Diaz hasn’t put up numbers like this since his time in Rookie ball with Elizabethton. He already has more homers this year (9) than he had all 2018 (6) in half the at-bats. Diaz is still strikeout prone, but he has drawn more walks this season (8) and he drew 10 in all of 2018. I don’t know what has clicked, but numbers are so much better than 2018, even in a pitcher-friendly league. His OPS was just .598 last season, but that has sky-rocketed to an outstanding .911 this season. Diaz has shown he can be dominant, and he should move up to Pensacola relatively soon, especially with Taylor Grzelakowski struggling at first.

Means 9 trips through the rotation for each starter, and got me to questioning what would be the best way to appropriate those starts from now - 117 games in - through the rest of the season.
The clear emphasis must be on 2019 and 2020 and what will best serve the club moving forward. That is not to say that you stop pitching Berrios, Odorizzi, or Gibson; those guys need to stay in rotation and continue to demonstrate that they can last an entire season and get their 30+ starts in. Injuries create opportunities but lack of injuries cannot serve to block those same opportunities.
I don't intend to break down every match-up and start, but more to the point, who do I want to see and how many times between now and season's end? Let's start by saying that if we maintain the existing rotation of Odorizzi, Berrios, Santana, Gibson and Stewart, that each would pitch 9 more times and the chart would look like this:
 
Odorizzi (9)
Berrios (9)
Santana (9)
Gibson (9)
Stewart (9)
 
First, I would identify those starters I want to see pitch (whose names do not appear on the above list). I have 4: Adalberto Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Michael Pineda. At this point, Pineda can continue his rehab until he is a little more stretched out, but I would like to see him for the last month, so (in an ideal world) I'll put his number at 5. Romero can continue to pitch in AAA, though I would like him to get a taste of regular rotation work for the next few weeks until he hits his innings limit (he's at 129.1 now), so I would pencil him in to start 4 more times at the mlb level, starting now, and see where that puts him. That might, honestly, dovetail into the Pineda starts as a timetable.
I am most interested in seeing Gonsalves pitch, so would put him down for 7 trips through the rotation between now and season's end.
 
The only way to get to the final numbers below is to switch to a 6-man rotation immediately, to rest the arms of the regulars and give opportunities to the newcomers, so that's what I do. It still does not create sufficient opportunities for all four so something else has to give. The victim in all this is Ervin; until and unless he can get his FB back up to 92 (which he won't), he is injured and on a rehab assignment. There is an argument that you continue to pitch him to see if someone will give you a C prospect for him or save a million dollars with a pass through waivers and a trade, but I don't see that happening either.
 
So here is what it looks like:
Odorizzi (7)
Berrios (7)
Gibson (7)
Gonsalves (7)
Romero (4)
Pineda (5)
Mejia (4)
Stewart (4)
Santana (0)
 
So I have my six-man rotation, with Odorizzi, Berrios, Gibson and Gonsalves getting regular rotation work through the end of the season. I have Romero pitch the next 4 times he is scheduled on regular (or 6-man) rest, followed by Pineda starting the remaining games through the end of the season, and Romero potentially available out of the BP for long relief and to ensure he gets to the innings limit they have set for him. I have Mejia and Stewart rotate through the final spot (Stewart for 4 more now, and then a well-rested Mejia for the last 4 while Stewart finishes out the season in the expanded BP as an additional long man).
 
Not only will this give me a look at the 2019 candidates, but it will inform me whether the above group is sufficient to attack the upcoming season (and yes, we can always use a frontline starter, but the question is whether or not we need another pitcher in the Odorizzi/Lynn/Stewart mode as a veteran who will take regular turns in the rotation but provide fairly middling results, if we're not being too optimistic about them).
 
The lost season is quickly dwindling away, and the vague notion that we'll get a chance to see all of these guys when rosters expand is not accurate. This needs to start now if we are to get any meaningful feedback - and any valuable information - from the wreckage of 2018.

The Minnesota Twins had their worst season in team history in 2016 losing 103 games. What might of been harder to see than the Twins poor play on the field, was watching the Pohlad family and Dave St. Peter select a replacement for Terry Ryan. The Twins hired the firm Korn Ferry to conduct the search. The Twins decided they wanted a Chief Baseball Officer and eventually narrowed their search down to two candidates. Scouting/Player-Development Chief Jason McLeod from the Chicago Cubs and Assistant General Manager Derek Falvey from the Cleveland Indians. The Twins brass decided on the 33 year old Derek Falvey to lead the team. The Pohlad family has never openly discussed money but one has to wonder if it played a part in their decision. McLeod was the only minority candidate, had more experience, and is a brilliant baseball mind who helped put Cubs baseball back on the map. He also signed a lucrative 5-year extension with the Cubs after not getting the top job with the Twins. Falvey was young but literally had more time as a intern with the Indians than as Assistant General Manager.
 
When Falvey took over the Twins he hired Thad Levine in November 2016 to be his General Manager. He also for some unknown reason decided to keep around many of Ryan's guys like Rob Antony, Mike Radcliffe, Brad Steil, and former director of scouting Deron Johnson. The fans all thought the team was in full rebuild mode but Falvey and Levine refused to accept that. The Twins had a slow winter with trade rumors surrounding second baseman Brian Dozier. The Twins wisely chose not to trade their all around best player for the meager offers they received. Dozier had his best year as a professional in 2017 and helped the Twins make it to the AL Wild Card game. Falvey also had a terrific draft by selecting players like Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker, and Blayne Enlow in the 2017 MLB draft. The team improved by 26 games and many fans thought the future looked bright. There are times when Falvey looks like another Andy Mcphail but there are also times when he looks and sounds like a used car salesman.
 
All fans were optimistic about 2018 being better than ever. Falvey wasted no time by signing Manager Paul Molitor to a 3-year contract extension. There were many who had hoped Molitor would be replaced. One name that surfaced was Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway. He ended up being hired by the NY Mets and he is already on the hot seat in his first season in Queens. The Twins had another slow winter with rumors swirling around Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish. They decided not to pay the hefty price tag for Darvish but instead traded a minor league player with some promise for starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi. The front office shocked many when they signed free agents Logan Morrison, Lance Lynn, and Addison Reed. They also surprised nobody by inking deals with relievers Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke. The Twins spiked their payroll to almost $130 million and were ready to compete. The only problem is from the beginning it's been nothing short of a disaster. The training staff made a mistake diagnosing the finger issues with pitcher Ervin Santana and he had surgery in February right before spring training started. Miguel Sano was accused of sexual assault in January and came into camp looking like he could play middle linebacker for the Chicago Bears than third base for the Twins. Byron Buxton has struggled to stay healthy and continues to look lost at the plate. Throughout the losing years of 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 we were all told just wait for Buxton & Sano. It appears we are still waiting and one has to wonder are they potential superstars or busts who can't live up to the hype. My biggest concern has always been player development. Why do players leave the Twins and find more success with other teams? It is a legitimate question.
 
The Twins are approaching the 2018 trade deadline with a 35-44 record and have been all but eliminated from the playoff race. Of course fans are clamoring for them to sell, sell, sell. I have no issues with them trading away Mauer, Dozier, Rodney, Lynn, or Morrison. However I take exception to trading Eduardo Escobar. Escobar continues to improve, plays multiple positions for the team, stays healthy, and is a clubhouse leader. He is also a free agent at the end of the year. Since Escobar was traded to the Twins by the Chicago White Sox he has progressed from a mediocre hitter in the utility role to a very good everyday player. It seems year after year fans keep saying we need to trade Escobar because his value will never be higher. Well guess what he just keeps on getting better and better. The Twins should not trade Escobar they sign him to a 3-4 year deal. We traded Eduardo Nunez back in 2016 for LHP Alberto Mejia. The trade does not look very good right now. How about Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer for Hector Santiago and Alan Busenitz in 2016. We gave up Meyer the prized prospect we got in the Denard Span trade, to get rid of Nolasco. Who can forget the day all Twins fans cried when Justin Morneau was traded for Alex Presley and a PTBNL back in August 2013. Truthfully the last trade deadline deal that worked for the Twins is when they acquired Escobar in 2012. A trade of Escobar signals to me the team is in full rebuild mode. I have been a loyal season ticket holder for thirteen years and the team is not any closer to winning a World Series now than in 2005. The Twins need to restock not rebuild.

Byron Buxton practicing his catching in front of a US border wall prototype in June, 2018
 
SAN DIEGO – After suffering for months with severe migraines and with a history of concussions, Byron Buxton announced on Twitter (@OfficialBuck103) yesterday that he’s officially stepping away from Major League Baseball.
 
“We’ll miss his presence on the field and in the clubhouse. He’s definitely one of the best center fielders of all time. We wish him the best in his future endeavors,” said Derek Falvey, Minnesota Twins Executive Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer.
 
Buxton later announced that he’s been working out at a U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) facility in San Diego, California where he’s training to catch bags of drugs, typically heroin, being thrown over the border walls from Mexico to the United States.
 
When asked about the new work he’s preparing for, Buxton said “At least I don’t need to hit anymore.” He added, “I was born to climb walls and catch. And this way, I can also do it while proudly serving my country.”
 
But, is catching baggies of drugs going to be as easy as catching baseballs? Buxton stated, “The tricky part is that all of the bags can come in different sizes and weights. But if it fits in my glove, I’m going to catch it. Just as long as the border wall is not 55 or 60 feet tall like I’ve heard some people are proposing.”
 
Carla Provost, Acting Chief for the U.S. Border Patrol division of the DHS, said that they have had their eye on Buxton for a while, and contacted him when he went on the disabled list in April for migraines. “Last year we really dove into the analytics of border security. We have this new metric, abbreviated DRS, which stands for Drug Rings Squandered. We expect that Byron will step right in and lead the division in DRS.”
 
We caught up with Border Patrol Assistant Chief, Percy Woolbright, to ask about Buxton. “He’ll be a natural at this. He’s really talented. He can cover a lot of wall, too, because I saw his sprint speed has been measured at over 30 feet per second. Also, Byron can come to work every day knowing that the weather along the US-Mexico border is much more predictable than in Minnesota. And if Florida ever decides to secede from the Union like it did in 1861, we’ll set up a new border wall along the US and Florida, and Byron can work close to his family in Georgia.”
 
One might assume that because of the orientation of catching fly balls against the fence in baseball, he should technically be positioned on the south (foreign) side of the wall to catch drugs being catapulted from Mexico. Commenting on this, Woolbright said, “Umm…Oops.”

Instead of writing an original piece of HIGH STRANGENESS to satisfy your curiosity, I am sharing a most EDIFYING piece in praise of the one solitary run the Twins are allowed to score in most games. 4 out of 6 since last we talked.
 
Gather, ye ball fans
As I make all clear
The most mirthful joy
Of our ONE run cheer!
 
To score runs PLURAL
Cannot be much fun
Compared to sheer glee
From scoring just one!
 
Teams - not the Twins, no
They love the long ball
They hammer and drive
They score, one and all!
 
Bless’d fans of TC
How lucky are we?
To score just a run
And not two or three?
 
That one run, and how!
When we see it plate,
To bed we can go
Needn’t stay up late.
 
Our run! It’s our run!
It’s the only we get!
You must love the run!
When your teams plays not so very good.
 
⁃ The Bard Axel Kohagen

I just finished reading Jim Kaat's essay on ESPN - http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23474497/jim-kaat-says-mlb-adapt-7-inning-games-effort-improve-sport and I really liked it. I think it is well thought out and he strengthens it with some notes about how the game has already changed so drastically over the years. This is a good change and I would love to see it, but won't because it will be resisted by the union, the league, the traditionalists.
 
​But what is tradition? Is it a pitcher throwing half the games and winning 50? Is it one pitcher winning 511 games? Is it an era of 400 hitters? Is it the murderers row and the sluggers who followed (sluggers who could also get hits and not strike out all the time)? Is it the war years when a 15 year old starts for Cincinnati? Can we say it is when Jackie Robinson integrated baseball and changed the rosters and stars? Is it the Bronx Bombers who dominated the 50's? Maybe it is the expansion era when lots of new records were set and we went from 154 to 162 games but kept all the same records? Is it PEDs? Is it the era of Latin ballplayers? Perhaps we can say it is the era of wildcard teams. Is it the demise of starters and rosters of all relief pitchers? Is it the era of big Ks and lots of HRs? There is no true tradition. Each season stands alone.
 
 
That's why we can argue about eras and great players without winning or losing. Its why the HOF is merely an annual pissing contest of my era was better than your era and your stats don't count because now we do not care about BA and ERA and Wins.
 
 
 
The very discussion that games are too long is a reasonable topic and a serious one. Change is not going to come by the little things that have been done. Shaving 3 minutes off the game is not the answer. Go Jim. I hope someone else is listening. And by the way - I would put you in the HOF!