Minny505

To me, Rosario looks like he is going to the plate for some PAs with an active, "don't swing" approach. He is not looking for a strike to do damage on and spitting on pitches outside the zone, he is just looking to take pitches. That's not really being disciplined. He needs to be identifying pitches as balls or strikes and, as Doug Latta says, deciding to NOT swing at balls. That is not what seems to be happening. This is probably better than him just swinging at everything every time. It may force pitchers to throw more strikes once the word is out. It may just mean pitchers begin to fish with their first pitch of a PA to see which approach Eddie has chosen to use this time up and then pitch accordingly. And maybe he actually develops better strike zone judgment by seeing more pitches per plate appearance and eventually learning what he should and should not be swinging at and this is just the first necessary step down that road. I'm hopeful.

Anyone know where we can watch the highlight of that defensive play in the 9th? I cannot find it anywhere online. That was pure entertainment.

Donaldson's swing looks all kinds of messed up right now. There is no one outside the AL Central I have watched swing as much as Donaldson over the past seven years. I absolutely love watching him swing the bat. It's gorgeous. The swing he is putting on the ball right now is not that swing I love. He is getting loaded late and not able to get his hands in his proper position. His hips are not as far into their rotation as they have been in the past when his bat is entering the hitting zone. As a result, he is rushing his bat thru the zone, looking like he is trying to catch up to the baseball while his feet are still "flat", swinging level or even down at a ball. We are seeing a lot of ground balls from him as a result. On his follow thru, his hands are often chest high, where in the past his hands have been at earhole height. This is THE guy that popularized the 10-15 degree swing plane in the pop culture of MLB fans. The camera caught him last night at a monitor in the dugout talking to guys about his swing and pointing something out. I'm sure he is as aware of this issue as I am. His last PA of the night he did have a better swing plane, but it was still off time. He swings so hard and he is still hitting the ball with great exit velos, but the launch angle is Eric Hosmer-like. I don't know if this is a timing issue with a short ramp-up or if he has some nagging leg issue going on. He has pulled up from a few runs looking like he has a cramp going on. He has a notorious history with calf issues so it is something to watch. I hope it's just rust. I have no doubt he can turn that around if that is the case. If it's a barking calf, this may not be as quick of a fix.

I heard one of the BP or Fangraphs writers (I think Jaffe but I'm not sure) on a podcast a few weeks ago about Arraez (I'm paraphrasing here): We're getting a little ahead of ourselves here but, he had the kind of rookie season that, if he performs like that for his career and stays healthy, he's a lock for the hall of fame. It's so rare that we see a kid come up at 22 and take ABs like him and make that kind of contact. It's not fair to say that yet of course, but he matches the comps perfectly. I really wish I could remember which pod & episode that was. ...And he's batting ninth for the Twins!!! That's how good this lineup is. GO TWINS!!!

It sounds like you took this strictly off projected WAR, so I'm surprised Moncada is projected as a better player than Jose Ramirez. Ramirez is a beast. As is Donaldson. Moncada doesn't even seem in the same tier as those two. A little surprised at Polanco over Adalberto Mondesi. While I am not surprised that Odo is projected to be better than Dick Mountain, I would bet even money that Hill finishes with a more impressive year...even before the Odo injury.

I'd put Donaldson & Buxton at 1/2. Losing one of them is likely a 3-4 win drop in production (over 162) with whoever replaces them. Losing Polanco, Kepler, or Berrios would probably be a 2-3 win drop (maybe I overestimate Adrianza), so they are on that next tier. I might put Rich Hill in that category as well. And while Cruz's production is replaceable with just a 1-2 win drop off, what he brings to the clubhouse and dugout is difficult to quantify. I'd give him another win or two for that leadership. So, my list would be: 1-Donaldson 2-Buxton 3-Polanco 4-Kepler 5-Cruz With Berrios and Hill being honorable mentions.

Is it Friday yet?

From the article: Is there any video of this? It sounds simultaneously fascinating and counter-intuitive. But baseball broadcast production teams are not in the habit, much to my constant chagrin, of showing anyone other than the pitcher, batter, catcher & ump as the pitch is hurling toward home plate. I'd love to see this in action!

Anyone know if and how to stream this after the game?

That 37 games in 38 day stretch looks rough. But if this actually goes down, it's going to be super fun for the rest of us!!!

That does seem to be the only real training camp question at this point: Dobnak or Bailey for the 5th spot in the rotation? I don't think it will matter much at the start of the season. Even if the stated 5th SP keeps his spot all season, I expect the 6th SP pitches to the tune of only 30% less innings than the 5th guy.

If we go six deep on the rotation, I'd rather the 6th be Dobnak than Smeltzer.

Can we make the fan experience in MLB more like the KBO? That looks like so much fun!!! Because, let's face it, MLB games are rather boring to be at. I'd rather watch amateur baseball in person.

I like the Joe Posnanski idea of running a full College World Series style tournament at the end. All teams in it, best of three, double elimination tourney, until the final four, then we go to seven games and single elimination. Best record to that point gets home field for all three games of matchup. If we end up with no agreement though, the playoffs will likely be the same as the last couple years with three division winners and a game 163 for the two wild cards. I'm also onboard with Vanimal. Let's make this season an outlier for how the competition is conducted. It would be so much fun.

I'd put Mauer in. I also think Posey is deserving. Molina is a hard no. That's like voting for Omar Vizquel. Those people are voting by reputation, not reality.

I support scaling salaries up the ladder to help owners pay for the massive influx of MLBPA players that are expected in the 2020 season now. That should only be something like 5% at the top. Those are unexpected labor costs that benefit members of the MLBPA. I do not support this concept with 47%ish cut from the top. You assume the risk of owning a business when you become an owner. All businesses owners do, whether investing in a publicly traded company or a privately held business. Contracts are honored regardless, unless settled in a court of law. That said, this is an initial offering and is fully understandable as such from the owners perspective, regardless of how ugly the optics are to the public. There does need to be negotiations though as the original agreement in March was to renegotiate pay should games be played with no fans. The MLBPA needs to honor that agreement and renegotiate, which I suspect they will. There seems to be a bit of overreaction by fans that this is some sort of final proposal when it is a starting point, albeit a one-sided proposal. Still, when I negotiate out large contracts for my business, I will often start with something extremely beneficial to my company and move down from there. The team owners are business people first and foremost. This one-sided rough draft should not surprise anyone.

If the DH is in play, the Cubs look to arguably get the biggest boost of any NL team, putting Schwarber at DH and replacing him with a better fielder. The Brewers also get a fairly substantial bump by having Braun in the daily lineup at DH, replacing him with a better fielder. The Reds, not so much. They are kind of like the White Sox: a lot of upside, but need a lot to go right. The Cardinals have that devil magic, so they probably bring up Jose Martinez 2.0 and have the best NL DH of them all. I'd confidently slot the Brewers at #5. I think the drop off after them is fairly noticeable, with the ChiSox and Reds chasing the top half of the Centrals.

This is so cool! Thank you for sharing.

Due to the season being projected to start right at the beginning of North America's hottest two month stretch, I expect offensive numbers to be off the charts at the outset. On top of that, hitters are always in front of the pitchers at the start of the season, further compounding that inflated offense. The only wild card here is the ball that MLB puts on the field. Even so, I still expect 10 run averages on games...and may invest on this theory. As such, here are my prop wagers you have on the board: 1: Buxton 60.5 GP - OVER This is pure optimism. The only reason to believe this is that my perception is he largely has missed games at the MLB level due to unproductive play, not to injury. Here's to hoping that unproductive play is a thing of the past. 2: Cruz 21.5 HR - OVER 22 or more is not outlandish and with my inflated offense theory, 21-25 HR's seems reasonable. 3: Arraez .320 BA - OVER While I think the league will adjust to him, I don't think it will be enough to hold him down that much in an inflated offensive environment. 4: Twins Cy Young Winner - UNDER Huh? The Twins are built on depth, not high end talent. I hope I am wrong here, but this one seems like the most obvious bet that cannot be even odds. 5: Garver OPS .888 - PUSH (Have you ever even ran a sports book? You can't use an attainable number. You need to go something like .8885 here!!! Just playing bud. I'll take the) OVER I expect Garver to play 50 or so games at catcher. His approach and swing seem like the kind of combo that is hard to pick apart, since pitchers will have to throw fastballs for strikes at some point. In an inflated offensive environment, I don't see .889 or higher as all that unlikely. Obviously, if I am wrong about the scoring environment, I'm losing my entire bankroll here...

I gotta admit, I am shocked that Bieber was taken so low for a pitcher. I would think him solidly in the top 10 pitchers for the next decade, maybe even as high as #3. I took him in the MLB decade contest as the player to win the most Cy Young awards, so you can see where I stand on him. And in an effort to be objective, I would also think Clevinger gets taken in front of Berrios. I strongly believe that the Indians have the four best players in the AL Central right now. This is not to say Berrios should not be in the top 10 pitchers taken as well, just that I think he is probably in the 8-10 range while Bieber is in the 3-5 range and Clevinger is in the 6-8 range. And also, I hope that I am wrong. Dead wrong.

I want the highest level of tension in every AB of a baseball game. A DH delivers that desired experience. Pitchers hitting lowers the tension for, sometimes significant, periods of the game. This lowering of tension makes a baseball game less interesting. Baseball, and all forms of entertainment, need more tension, not less. In the game of baseball, tension creates drama. Drama creates a better baseball viewing experience for the observers of that game. To use a Gleeman-esque terrible analogy of the day, it's like having an automatic garage door opener. We all take it for granted that we'd prefer an automatic garage door opener, but back when they came out, some people probably didn't want one, thinking it's so unnecessary and even diminishes the experience of garage & car ownership. But once you have one and no longer need to expose yourself to the procedural drudgery of leaving your car to park it safely away in your garage, you realize you love it. That is what the DH will be like for NL fans. Ultimately, I am happy for the fans of NL teams that will get to experience the heightened tension and added drama that the DH adds to an observed baseball game. Especially being the I just moved to Phoenix and would like to have more tension in those games I will be watching in the future. The only downside will be that there are less opportunities to go hit the can while at the ballpark watching a game.

As MikeLink pointed out, I think the Dbacks deserve a spot in the Top 15...arguably at #12. I would probably drop the White Sox out. I'm probably a little low on them, but, with the exception of Grandal, they seemed to have a quantity-over-quality offseason. It established a floor and they have the most variance on this list, but I just don't see enough breakthrus for them to be noticeably better than .500. You could talk me into dropping the Angels or Padres as well. Just get the Dbacks on this list already!!! ;o)

First, thank you for introducing Pitch Type Liner Weights to me. That is a stat I was not familiar with. Very cool!!! And now, with that said, I feel like wPT/C would be better for an exercise like this, since it is a rate stat while wPT is a counting stat. I doubt it changes any of the leaders except maybe the changeup. It would like demonstrate further just how good Trevor May's fastball really is. Cuz damn, that is a dominant pitch! This was a super rad article. Thank you!!!

I can't believe no one has said it yet. It's probably because we are the small sliver of the fan base that did not feel this way, but the correct answer is... Joe Mauer It makes me sad that Joe is the answer to this question, but he is. It seems the plurality of Twins fans could talk about nothing else regarding the Twins during the dog years of the 2010's except how they were terrible because of the Joe Mauer contract. How he was not worth the money, as if he took it from them himself without asking. I have never noticed a player the Twins general fan base absolutely loves to hate. In fact, if I sat down at a bar outside of Twins Territory and started chatting with a complete stranger about MLB history and brought up Joe Mauer, I would describe him exactly like this... "He was one of the five best players to ever wear a Twins uniform. I loved him. Most Twins fans loved-to-hate him. I still don't really understand why."

I would love if you put ERA+ in the stats for context. Eyeballing it: -Radke is around a 120 -Baker is around a 110 -Silva is around 100 -Milton is around 90 -Santana is more of a guess. Maybe 160? That's kind of sad that we can't come up with better SPs than Milton and Silva for a decade that saw so many division championships. It's not a surprise they got bounced in so many playoff series. Not that I think pitching is the remedy for playoff losses per se, but league average pitching is. If this is the best team was running out on the bump to start each game, that means the team was likely starting league average, at best, SPs for most games. That is something I did not realize at the time. I understood we had worse pitching than the opposing team, but I always chalked it up to the opponent having really good SPs, not the Twins having below average SPs. The things you learn...