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Bill Brown69

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Everything posted by Bill Brown69

  1. Bill Brown69
    Because nobody has ever been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in April. Because I own a pair of rose colored glasses and I am convinced this team will win 81-85 games. The most important thing my Dad ever taught me is the cost of being positive and negative is the same. The rewards of being positive are higher though.
  2. Bill Brown69
    While I agree that Joe shouldn't play much against lefty starters I don't know how you can sit Kepler, Rosario and Joe so I predict he plays more than most of the posters think. My ideal lineup has Joe batting 5th to split Sano and Park who are interchangeable depending on who is hot. With that in mind and my rose colored (March) glasses on,,, 535PA .287BA /23 2B/ 12HR/115 BB/ 79RBI/ 94Runs Logic for that, pitching to Mauer with a strikeout prone hitter behind him with a runner on 2nd and 2 out is stupid so Joe takes a ton of walks. That leads to a .439 OB% If he is on base that much he will score. Career high in walks, 2nd highest OB%, tied for second highest in Runs and TD posters will be all over him for lack of RBI from the 5 hole!
  3. Bill Brown69
    I don't mind the lineup much. In the other thread I had Park/Sano as 4&6 interchangeable with Mauer as the 5 hitter just to break up the strikeout prone righties and with Mauer's OB% the 6 hole guy should get ample opportunities to hit a 2 run homer. The only other thing I had different was catcher at 7 just to put all the base cloggers in 1 bunch.
  4. Bill Brown69
    I will give it a shot IF Defense -5 OF Defense +35 You must have forget how awful last year really was. If Grossman spends 2/3 of the year on the DL then +50. Catching +20 Zuke was bad Starters +60 And that number still says it is not a good rotation, just not historically bad Relievers +20 Hitters +40 This team will score a lot. That equals a -2 run differential or a +13 if Grossman is on the DL. 81-84 wins! Now I am going to spend at least this week enjoying my rose colored glasses!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  5. Bill Brown69
    The #4 hitter leads of the second inning 33% of the time. The #3 hitter is AB with nobody on 50% of the time in the first inning. That is why I had Polonco and Rosario batting 8 and 9. No matter where you are most of your RBIs come from the guys hitting before you getting on and preferably standing on 2nd.
  6. Bill Brown69
    But the most revealent because it was last year.
  7. Bill Brown69
    I would like to agree but if Grossman plays OF against lefties to sit either Kepler or Rosario then you end up with EE as DH if Park moves to first. I tried to make a stab at it but I think it might change every couple weeks based on performance among several. That being said, the lineup I would have against the first righty with the right to change Dozier Kepler Buxton Park Mauer Sano Castro Polonco Rosario Park and Sano are likely to switch early in the season when Sano starts hitting. Kepler and Rosario are interchangeable. Castro is there with the idea that Polonco and/or Rosario can get on base for Dozier's later AB's. If he hits with runners on Dozier and Buxton switch. IMHO this team should score. There are always more runs scored than RBI so when you project somebody to have 100 RBI you have to be able to project someone to score at lest 100. I can see 4 guys in this lineup that if batting 1 or 2 could score 100. Dozier has, Buxton, Polonco and also Kepler could if he can keep himself in the lineup against lefties. With this lineup I could also see Park, Sano and Dozier having 100 RBI.
  8. Bill Brown69
    I am concerned about Sano but I won't be worried until after the AS break as long as he stays healthy. While he has never been my favorite prospect nobody can argue that he has the potential to hit 500+ homers. He does also have the potential to do a Ryan Howard and flame out.
  9. Bill Brown69
    First thing with Dozier is baseball is not played in a vacuum. He just flat out hits better and strikes out less with nobody on base.
  10. Bill Brown69
    Everyone get ready for this. Berrios an whoever loses from the Duffy/Mejia battle will pitch as far apart in the rotation as possible and the first call will likely be determined by who is closest to stay on their normal schedule. And that is the way it should be assuming they are comparable performance wise.
  11. Bill Brown69
    I posted a year ago that I was not and will not be concerned by the "lack" of spending the Twins have exhibited in the last couple years AS LONG AS THEY USE IT LATER. Roster wise you have Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano and Polanco with A maybe for Dozier. Pitching wise There aren't many here yet but Berrios, Mejia, Chargois, with a May and Pressly and a few others in the mix. I want 4 of them to spend 10 big league years in a Twins uniform. I for one am tired of the assumption that everyone leaves at free agency and am sick of trying to "project" the next group of prospects to be great. I don't know which ones but there are people in the front office who are paid big $$ to figure it out and make a decision. Does Sano turn into Ryan Howard with his weight? Does Buxton kill himself with his aggressive play? Does Dozier turn back into a pumpkin? Is Rosario actually on the cusp of being a solid player for 10 years? Will Kepler ever turn his tools into an Ellis Burks type and have a 75 WAR career? Can Polonco hold a position or is he destined for super utility? Every position player has question marks just like every pitcher but get at least 2 of them signed forever. And guess what, it is my money paying the salaries and I don't care what it costs, just pick the right ones and sign them. Don't tell me how much the Mauer and Puckett contracts hamstrung the team. How much has the decreased interest over the last 4 years hurt? Fans want a few familiar names to go root for so give it to us!!!!!!!!!!!
  12. Bill Brown69
    I do agree, they need someone to fill this kind of role. I'd just prefer it be someone you can move to the minors if/when needed. If it becomes an issue just let Haley go back to Boston and it really didn't cost you much. However that is the key. If he pitches 25 innings early with a 4.8 era in mop and we need somebody to replace him then replace him and let him walk. Don't look at the cost in $$$ but just tell yourself that pitcher xyz that you did't have to abuse that way doesn't need TJ. Sometimes you really just need to focus on how much you can lose in a day, not what you make.
  13. Bill Brown69
    Biggest trouble with Mauer in the 2 hole is he seems to be a guy that is bothered by somebody trying to steal. I have seen more crappy swings from him in those situations that every other AB combined in his career. It is almost like when the runner takes off there is a switch in his head that forces him to swing. The biggest problem is he is such a good hitter that he does make contact and fouls off a lot of pitches that would have been balls and that he would have never swung at otherwise.
  14. Bill Brown69
    I agree that you use every off day for ANY left handed hitter against a lefty starter if at all possible. I was not a Gardy basher but that was my one issue with him and Mauer sitting a day game against a righty after playing a night game against a guy like Sale. (Sale may not have happened but you get the drift) My point is that it seems like a lot of posters here have pegged Kepler as a .255-.270 guy with a little pop end of story. I don't think that the growing pains of adjusting last year mean we know what he can be. I see a guy fully capable (on his best years) of hitting .300 with 70 xbh and playing slightly above average D in right field. That would get national notice and I think he will get it, although probably not this year. I will predict this year at .278/ 33 2B/ 23HR.
  15. Bill Brown69
    I hit the like button on Brock's above post BUT I think everyone here is a little too down on Kepler. He is still a little raw around the edges but I see him turning into a left handed version of Ellis Burks which isn't too shabby. Probably won't make it this year but 2018 will be the get noticed around the league year with even better things to follow.
  16. Bill Brown69
    I doubt that all 6 will come out of ST healthy so I am not going to concern myself with the decision yet. I just hope that 5 come out fully healthy.
  17. Bill Brown69
    One other thought and this has been a thing for a while but the title,,,,, Twins means Minnesota,,,,,, franchise can mean Senators IF you want.
  18. Bill Brown69
    What! No Gladden?!?! Sorry I just had to. He is a polarizing guy but was involved in the 9th inning in both series wins.
  19. Bill Brown69
  20. Bill Brown69
    Sorry Brock but I think pitching staff/ hitters for the home team can sway the park factor by a ton. Put Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in Target field and see what happens. Or maybe put Bonds, Willingham, Dozier and Joeybats all on their best years and see what that turns it into. Sometimes a team comes together with monster pitching and not a lot of O and then "its a pitchers park" but if the home team has no pitching but a couple guys who can/will try to homer to get back in the game then "its a hitters park"
  21. Bill Brown69
    Can I vote like I will in November and pick none of the above? JT is the only closer in the bunch and has massive upside but I really think he should be 8th inning guy next year so flip a coin and see how it falls and hope for the best.
  22. Bill Brown69
    I know Cuddy was the last but not sure on any of the others.
  23. Bill Brown69
    I can go either way on this. Not a huge fan of trading just to be "in the game" i.e. Synd for RA Dickey but I will give him the pass for being in the AL East and having to compete there. Most on here won't like this but give me a 10 year run of division titles and I will take my chance on winning it all a time or 2. Don't forget the Braves only won 1. A World Series title is hard but I would way rather win enough for every game to be meaningful than be a Marlins fan even with their 2 titles. I won't be in the room for the interview so,,,,,,, I guess that all I will be able to offer is the 20/20 hindsight!!!!!
  24. Bill Brown69
    How about we make the kids lay ball or else you get sent down. I get frustration but after the last 2 weeks the only choices are 1 every starter pitches at least 6 innings no matter the pitch count or 2 schedule surgery for 1/2 of the bullpen in the offseason. I personally hate the way the season has gone but we are talking about careers here. Maybe it is not a concern to anybody else but it damb well better be to anybody who thinks they are going to employ any of my children because I was employed by somebody that did't care. Maybe that doesn't matter but maybe next years top 2-5 draft pick has a father that looks at the Twins as a team that will protect the players and we get the new version of Trevor Hoffman BECAUSE.
  25. Bill Brown69
    Until somebody steps up and throws 7 innings everybody's job should be in jepordy! Duffy has been rocked nearly every start and with Berrios it has been every start.
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