Tom Froemming

Thanks for reading. This has now been published on the front page, hopefully the discussion will continue there.

Quick update: Polanco is starting at short again tonight, so that's eight of the past 11 games.

Heading into this season, it appeared Eduardo Escobar had cemented himself as the Twins' starting shortstop. He'd put together two-straight above average offensive seasons and ended his 2015 season with a big exclamation point. With a poor showing thus far in 2016, however, Escobar's place on the team is now very much in question.Escobar performed admirably in 2014, taking over for Pedro Florimon and fending off rookie Danny Santana for playing time. He hit .275/.315/.406 and ranked 10th in the AL with 35 doubles. Still, he seemed like more of a bandaid at the position than an attractive long-term option. Santana re-entered the picture to start 2015, but once he faltered there was steady Eduardo to step in. At the time, it was disappointing to see the talented young Santana fail to take advantage of an opportunity and Escobar again just seemed to be a stop gap. The team was in contention and he was the best option. His performance over the last two months of the season changed that perception. Escobar hit .287 with eight homers, 27 RBI and 31 runs over his final 56 games played. Extrapolated over a 162 game period, that equates to 23 home runs, 78 RBI and 90 runs. He went from stop gap to the solution. Unfortunately, that performance appears to have been a mirage. A big element to Escobar's game that fueled his hot finish to 2015 was an improved approach at the plate. He has been unable to carry that over to 2016. 2014: 5.2 BB%, .315 OBP First half 2015: 3.7 BB%, .285 OBP Second half 2015: 8.7 BB%, .330 OBP 2016: 3.4 BB%, .283 OBP That second half spike from last season appears to simply be a huge outlier at this point. Escobar has an ugly triple slash of .259/.283/.380 this season and to top it off advanced defensive metrics suggest his glove work has declined, as well. The trade of Eduardo Nunez appeared to have opened the door back up for Escobar to take over at short, but instead Jorge Polanco has started six of the past nine games. The organization has always seemed hesitant to commit to Escobar, but now his performance has justified that stance. With an additional two seasons of team control which should come at modest prices, Escobar entered the year in a perfect position to slap a long-term stranglehold on the starting shortstop gig. No one could've seen the emergence of Nunez coming, but Escobar has also played himself out of the picture. With his ability to switch hit and play multiple positions, he's got an attractive skill set for a utility player, but with how far his performance has fallen off it's anyone's guess what the new front office regime will ultimately decide to do with Escobar. It's not too late to rule out another late season surge from Escobar, but at this point it certainly appears the franchises' instability at shortstop will continue. Over the past ten seasons the Twins have had nine different Opening Day shortstops. Click here to view the article

Among current internal options, Plouffe is the team's best option as an everyday 3B and I don't think it's really even close. I'm not happy about that fact, but it's true. Personally, I'm ready to see Miguel Sano's glove taken away permanently. Sure, that will cause issues for Vargas/Park, but who cares? If Polanco's arm is questionable for short, how is he an option for third? I suppose you could scoot Escobar over there, but he's been terrible and even when things were going well wasn't putting up numbers that would look good for a corner guy. I'm not opposed to a full on youth movement, but if this team wants to complete in '17 Plouffe is the guy for 3B. Sure, you could sign a free agent, but that would likely take a multi-year commitment. Addressing the position via a trade would be an option too, but I'd think there are bigger problems to fix.

I keep expecting Gonsalves to slip up at some point. Coming off that 100-pitch complete game I was thinking this may be the spot. Boy was I wrong. I'm in the camp that's ok with him staying at Double A, but what I'm wondering is what this guy has to do to jump over Tyler Jay in prospect rankings? I know the walks aren't where you'd like them to be, but he's been unhittable, giving up something like 5.1 hits per nine in Chattanooga.

That would be ideal. I'm just not confident at this point Polanco can be a solid defensive shortstop. Hopefully I'm wrong. Also, Esco as the utility guy would probably mean Danny Santana would need to go, which I don't have a problem with. But Danny is going to be a bit cheaper than Escobar next season. I wonder if that will play into the decision at all. I think there's a 50/50 chance the Twins 2017 Opening Day shortstop is someone not in the organization right now. Wouldn't surprise me if that's a position the new GM looks to address.

Heading into this season, it appeared Eduardo Escobar had cemented himself as the Twins' starting shortstop. He'd put together two-straight above average offensive seasons and ended his 2015 season with a big exclamation point. With a poor showing thus far in 2016, however, Escobar's place on the team is now very much in question. Escobar performed admirably in 2014, taking over for Pedro Florimon and fending off rookie Danny Santana for playing time. He hit .275/.315/.406 and ranked 10th in the AL with 35 doubles. Still, he seemed like more of a band aid at the position than an attractive long-term option. Santana re-entered the picture to start 2015, but once he faltered there was steady Eduardo to step in. At the time, it was disappointing to see the talented young Santana fail to take advantage of an opportunity and Escobar again just seemed to be a stop gap. The team was in contention and he was the best option. His performance over the last two months of the season changed that perception. Escobar hit .287 with eight homers, 27 RBI and 31 runs over his final 56 games played. Extrapolated over a 162 game period, that equates to 23 home runs, 78 RBI and 90 runs. He went from stop gap to the solution. Unfortunately, that performance appears to have been a mirage. A big element to Escobar's game that fueled his hot finish to 2015 was an improved approach at the plate. He has been unable to carry that over to 2016. 2014: 5.2 BB%, .315 OBP First half 2015: 3.7 BB%, .285 OBP Second half 2015: 8.7 BB%, .330 OBP 2016: 3.4 BB%, .283 OBP That second half spike from last season appears to simply be a huge outlier at this point. Escobar has an ugly triple slash of .259/.283/.380 on the season and to top it off advanced defensive metrics suggest his glove work has declined, as well. The trade of Eduardo Nunez appeared to have opened the door back up for Escobar to take over at short, but instead Jorge Polanco has started six of the past nine games. The organization has always seemed hesitant to commit to Escobar, but now his performance has justified that stance. With an additional two seasons of team control which should come at modest prices, Escobar entered the year in a perfect position to slap a long-term stranglehold on the starting shortstop gig. No one could've seen the emergence of Nunez coming, but Escobar has also played himself out of the picture. With his ability to switch hit and play multiple positions, he's got an attractive skill set for a utility player, but with how far his performance has fallen off it's anyone's guess what the new front office regime will ultimately decide to do with Escobar. It's not too late to rule out another late season surge from Escobar, but at this point it certainly appears the franchises' instability at shortstop will continue. Over the past ten seasons the Twins have had nine different Opening Day shortstops.

Here is a link to that article by La Velle, which included this quote from DSP: “We said we’d like to have it completed by the end of the baseball season, but that’s more of a goal and certainly not a requirement,” St. Peter said. “We’re realistic enough to know that it might need to extend beyond that.”

The Twins have been very under the radar in their search for a new general manager, but could the team be in a position to announce a new hire before the end of the 2016 season? Recent remarks from Star Tribune reporter Phil Miller certainly make that sound like a real possibility. Miller joined host Michael Rand on the most recent episode of the Star Tribune's Twins Insider podcast, and had a couple of very interesting tidbits to share in regard to the team's search for a new gm. The topic comes up toward the end of the podcast, around the 41-minute-mark. Miller shares that inside the organization the "feeling has definitely set in that Rob (Antony) won't get the job" and added that the team has been very quietly doing their research and making progress. How soon could they be prepared to make a hire? "I would be surprised, actually, if it went beyond second week of September," Miller said. Miller even gave some insight into who one of the top candidates for the new GM may (or may not) be. He didn't name names, but Miller said while in Tampa he looked up one of the Rays' candidates for the job and was told by the teams PR department that individual wasn't interested in speaking with any media from Minnesota. Who may that mystery candidate be? This is complete speculation, but my guess would be the Rays Vice President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom. The Twins are working with the same search firm that led the Brewers GM search, in which Bloom as finalist. He was also considered for the Phillies GM opening this offseason. The Brewers actually interviewed Bloom last September, so we know the Rays aren't opposed to allowing members of their front office to interview for outside positions during the season. MLB Trade Rumors said this in regard to his fit in Milwaukee's search: "The 32-year-old Yale grad would seem to fit the team’s preference for a rising young executive that can bring a familiarity with analytics to their revamped front office." Bloom was promoted to his current position in October of 2014, but has been working for the Rays since 2005. Again, there is no concrete evidence that the Twins are tied to Bloom or even that the leading candidate is anyone the Rays organization, but it would certainly make a lot of sense.

It is out of the ordinary. Here's a quote from Gonsalves in the milb.com game story: "I was going out with 91 pitches, and I think normally there's a Twins rule that you're not allowed to start an inning after 85 pitches," Gonsalves said. "Doug was confident in me and I appreciate that. I was waiting, watching him out of the corner of my eye in the dugout. He walked by and was sitting by the water jug, taking little glances at me."

I like Robbie, but to me the hope is that the young guys play him out of the picture. Ideally next season I'd like to see Kepler in RF, Buxton in CF and either Walker or Palka in LF with Rosario as the 4th OF. Walker is yet again leading his league in homers. The Ks are obviously a huge concern, and he's not known for his defense, but he deserves a look with the big club at some point next season. You can basically say all the same things about Palka, but Walker has a lot more of a track record in the upper minors (987 PAs between Double A & Triple A vs. Palka's 468). Both Walker and Palka turn 25 in October. If you're not going to leave the door open for them next season then at least one of them needs to be traded.

Nailed it. I think Geovany Soto would be the guy I'd most like them to target. He signed last offseason with the Angels for 1 year, $2.8 M and has had an injury plagued season (a common thing for him, unfortunately), so I'd imagine you could get him on a similar deal. His career OPS+ is actually the same as Wilson Ramos and better than Matt Weiters, though that's boosted by excellent numbers he put up with the Cubs early in his career. Also, his caught stealing % is right about league average. But the main point is guys like him -- 30-something major league catchers -- are available on one-year deals every offseason. I have no problem with the team just going with those guys for a few years. And then if one of the minor leaguers blossoms or you can swing a trade for another young catcher, you don't have that position blocked by an overpaid veteran on the decline.

I hope he sees plenty of playing time behind the plate. Do you know why Stuart Turner has gotten more reps at catcher than Garver in Double A this year? Has Garver been banged up?

Well it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to keep both Darin Mastroianni and Logan Schafer in Triple-A. Maybe it's one of those two who'll be out the door. Buxton, Walker and Palka should be getting the bulk of the playing time in the OF.

I decided against trying to write something bigger connecting those two because they really aren't that similar, outside of being center fielders who struggled in their first exposure to MLB. The way they got to that point was way different. I think it's important to remember that Bradley was only advancing from High A to Double A during his age 22 season.

Couple of interesting tidbits I came across ... - Of 337 hitters with at least 350 PAs over the past two seasons, Buxton has the 64th lowest Z-Swing % (swings at pitches in the zone). So, being inside the top 20% in that category, I'd say he's actually been too passive in regard to pitches in the zone. - I was thinking about maybe writing a blog post relating Buxton to Jackie Bradley Jr., but last month Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal already connected those dots. Most interesting thing to me from his article was Bruno's quotes: "You look over on that side (to the Boston Red Sox), and they’ve got quite a few mentors over there. They can take these young kids and explain to them how they can do it, how they’re going to go through it, how to get out of it. They have a lot of tutelage there. You see the maturity and the development." That's a pretty damning quote in my eyes. As the hitting coach, isn't it kinda Bruno's job to be to do that stuff? That quote also doesn't make the vets like Mauer or Dozier look good, either. If Bruno feels like Byron needs a mentor how come those guys aren't stepping up?

The Wings TV guy did a great job of pointing out how Mejia's delivery looks a lot like Liriano's. They're incredibly similar.

LOL

It's possible, but I don't believe that to be the case. I think it has more to do with his approach. I think with bases empty he tries to kinda save his arm and let hitters get themselves out and with men on he really bears down. Whether that means he adds some velo, puts some more snap on his breaking balls or somehow alters his pitch selection I'm not sure. For his career, he's given up a homer 4.12% of the time with the bases empty (68 HR over 1,654 PAs) but only 1.99% of the time with runners on (23 HR over 1,161 PAs).

I agree with everything you're saying, but the numbers shocked me. Over the past three seasons with the Angels he's given up more homers at home (34) than on the road (30) with a huge split this year (13 home vs. 7 road). And it's not like he has pitched more at home, it's 43 home appearances vs. 42 on the road.

Thanks tobi, secret sauce is a good way to put it. What I wonder is if the Twins should just kinda let him do his thing and hope for continued success or if they should try to uncover what that secret sauce is and see if they can help him take the next step. Personally, I hope they do as little tinkering as possible. My worry is that they'll try to get him to lower that walk rate/pitch count in the hopes that he can go deeper into games. I fear if he stays in the zone more and tries to attack hitters he'd just get clobbered.

Santiago hasn't been quite as impressive in the LOB% this year. His 75.9 LOB% is 39th among the 98 pitchers with at least 100 innings. Nolasco is 95th at 64.5%. But if you look back to when he became a starter (2013), there have been 81 pitchers who've thrown 500 innings and he ranks 14th with a 76.8 LOB%. Also over that stretch ... He has the highest fly ball rate at 49.0% Second lowest line drive rate at 17.5% Sixth highest infield fly ball rate at 12.6% Sixth lowest BABIP at .271 He is elite in the areas he excels in. On the ugly side, only Liriano and Ubaldo have a worse BB/9 than Santiago's 3.94 over that span. But I think that may be part of his strategy. He keeps guys off balance and doesn't challenge hitters when the count's in their favor. Obviously, that's a dangerous game to play, and I'm sure will be infuriating to watch from time to time, but it has been working for him.

In the wake of the Twins acquiring Hector Santiago from the Angels, some have questioned how big of an upgrade he'll be over Ricky Nolasco, mainly pointing to Nolasco's vastly superior numbers in terms of FIP (fielding independent pitching). While the peripheral stats may be in Nolasco's favor, they don't tell the whole story.The biggest divide between these two players is how they bear down when things start to not go in their favor. If you take a look into how each pitcher performs with runners on, it's clear that while Nolasco crumbles, Santiago shines Career FIP vs. ERA Santiago: 4.63 FIP, 3.68 ERA (0.95 worse) Nolasco: 3.85 FIP, 4.58 ERA (0.73 better) So you can see that both pitchers have been FIP busters, with Santiago looking a great deal worse than the ERA he has pitched to. These kinds of gaps are abnormal for veteran pitchers. Just for reference, Ervin Santana's FIP and ERA are only off by a difference of 0.11 over his career (4.24 FIP, 4.13 ERA). FIP is a great indicator of pitcher performance because it only looks at home runs, walks, hit batsmen and strikeouts. As the name indicates, any plays in which defense is a factor are not taken into account. Another thing FIP doesn't take into account, however, is game situation. Obviously, it's better to not allow batters to reach safely, but Santiago has limited damage with runners on at an elite level. Even just skimming the surface it's easy to see this is where Santiago gains a considerable amount of value over Nolasco. Career with men on base Santiago: .216/.322/.336 (.658 OPS) Nolasco: .294/.345/.448 (.793) Career with RISP Santiago: .184/.300/.271 (.571) Nolasco: .287/.347/.437 (.784) Career with 2 outs and RISP Santiago: .173/.310/.248 (.558) Nolasco: .264/.355/.397 (.752) To put some perspective on just how excellent these numbers are for Santiago, Johan Santana was only slightly better over his career with men on base (.647 OPS) but not nearly as good with RISP (.623) or with RISP and two outs (.606). Santiago's greatest weakness is walks, and looking at his excellent July it's a wonder how he managed to put up such great results with how many free passes he issued. But, while he did walk 21 batters, in the following at-bat opponents went just 1-for-18 with eight strikeouts and two walks (for those of you tallying things up at home, he was pulled for a reliever after one of those walks). That is a small sample, but it shows a slice of how effective Santiago can be at stepping up, wiggling out of jams and neutralizing the walks. There are people who don't believe in the concept of clutch, or even pitchers adjusting their approach based on game situation (pitching to the score for example). But after over 650 career innings, it seems like a stretch to look at Santiago's excellent track record in adverse situations and just say he's just been lucky. He clearly is unfazed by the pressure of pitching with men on base. Hector Santiago plays with fire but rarely gets burned. If he can continue to demonstrate this skill, he should also continue to outperform Ricky Nolasco with ease. Click here to view the article