Tom Froemming

When the news broke of the Twins' trade of Aaron Hicks to the New York Yankees for John Ryan Murphy, the deal seamed reasonable enough. The club was dealing from an area of strength to address one of it's greatest weaknesses. After seeing the free agent and trade markets evolve, things are starting to look worse. There was no reason the team had to deal away a player who would have been of value to the 2016 roster in order to solve the catching problem. True, Matt Wieters, the expected top prize of this offseason's catching group, was surprisingly off the market after accepting the Orioles' qualifying offer. Another potential target, A.J. Pierzynksi, quickly resigned with the Braves. Did Terry Ryan overreact to that early activity? It's certainly starting to look like it. Here is a list of the other catchers who have signed so far: Tyler Flowers: 2 years, $5.8 million Brayan Pena: 2 years, $5 million Chris Iannetta: 1 year, $4.25 million Dioner Navarro: 1 year, $4 million Alex Avila: 1 year, $2.5 million Geovany Soto: 1 year, $2 million Josh Thole: 1 year, $0.8 million Jarrod Saltalamacchia: 1 year, $0.508 million Those are very reasonable prices for guys who you could consider serviceable backups at the very least. Another move that went down Thursday evening has me further convinced there is even more reason to question the Hicks-Murphy trade. The San Diego Padres acquired former top prospect Christian Bethancourt from the Braves, giving up basically nothing of value to their major league club for the '16 season. This move is especially notable because with Derek Norris and Austin Hedges already in the fold, San Diego is almost certainly shopping a catcher. Going to Atlanta in that deal is the perpetually busted Casey Kelly, a 26-year-old former prospect who had a 7.94 ERA in 11 1/3 innings with the Padres and a 5.16 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. The prize of the return for the Braves is 17-year-old catcher Ricardo Rodriguez. So, basically a long shot to ever be a significant contributor and a complete lottery ticket. Sounds like a lot better of a deal than giving up your starting center fielder. In 143 career games at Triple-A, Bethancourt has hit .299/.327/.435 with 12 homers and last season between Atlanta and Gwinette he thew out 23 of 52 base stealers (44%). The Braves soured on him over questions regarding his game calling and an increase in passed balls. The fact that San Diego jumped on him despite not having a need at the position shows they feel he was being undervalued by the Braves, and it seems to me like experience and instruction could go a long way in fixing those issues. While it's great that the Twins filled a huge hole in the organization by adding Murphy, who is a better long-term solution than any of the free agents listed above and has more of an MLB track record than Bethancourt, it's frustrating to think that hole could have been filled without having to part ways with Hicks.

The dominoes began to fall in terms of the market for starting pitchers when David Price signed with the Boston Red Sox earlier this week. There has been a flurry of moves in the aftermath, both in free agency and on the trade market, but one of the top options heading into the winter is still available: Johnny Cueto. With so many moves going down of late, it's starting to feel like Cueto may be running out of landing spots. Tuesday, SB Nation's Grant Brisbee took a look at potential destinations for the 29-year-old right-hander and came to the conclusion Minnesota would be an ideal fit. It's not that he feels particularly strongly about that opinion, however, calling it a dumb idea, but he defended it by saying Cueto to any team seems like a dumb idea at this point. Which is kinda true. The freshest images of Cueto in our minds is him being wildly inconsistent after a deadline move to Kansas City. But last I checked things worked out pretty well for those guys, though. In 13 regular season starts with the Royals, Cueto had a 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. That was before October, when things got especially weird. He had a poor first start against the Astros in the ALDS, pitched a gem with his team facing elimination in Game 5 of that series, got absolutely shelled in an ALCS start against Toronto before pitching a complete game two hitter against the Mets in Game 2 of the World Series. Throw in some past concerns about his arm and back and you get a very confusing picture. Taking a look back further at his excellent run with the Cincinnati Reds makes things look a heck of a lot more exciting, but his uneven performance with KC seems to have left a bad impression, despite his dominant performance on the grandest stage. Prior to being dealt, Cueto had a 2.62 ERA and 0.93 WHIP for the Reds. He would have been the 2014 NL Cy Young if it wasn't for Clayton Kershaw's historic MVP season. He missed most of 2013, but finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2012. That kind of resume would have made him the top free agent in some years. It was reported that Cueto rejected a six-year, $126 million offer from the Arizona Diamondbacks. They were so heartbroken they gave all their money to Zack Greinke and all their prospects to the Braves for Shelby Miller. So we know what Cueto hopes to get. The real question is what will it actually take to get him? Many of the big market teams have already made moves to solidify their rotations. The Cardinals are unlikely to be open to signing Cueto due to bad blood over a brawl a few seasons back. There will still be plenty of suitors, his agent made a good point that all 30 teams could use a Johnny Cueto, but the market has already shrunk to some extent. The money going to some of these pitchers ($90 million for Jeff Samardzija!?!?!?) is getting crazy, but it would not shock me if Cueto fails to beat that offer from Arizona. The big hangup will be that whoever signs him will have to forfeit a draft pick. For the Twins, that would be the 16th overall pick. The Twins already have quantity when it comes to options to fill their rotation. Adding another middle of the road veteran would make little sense. Guys like Mike Leake or Wei-Yin Chen are not going to vastly improve the Twins chances at winning over the next few years. What the club could use is some quality at the top, and when you look at Cueto's resume it's undeniable that he's been among the best pitchers in baseball If you don't think now's the time to spend money on a starter, just take a look at next year's market and try to find your guy there. Stephen Strasburg is the headliner, after that it's ... I don't know, Brett Anderson? The Twins could trade prospects for a starter instead, but did you see what Arizona gave up for Miller or what Miami wants for Jose Fernandez? No thanks. So unless you like the idea of the unknown and want to see the team make a run at Japanese righty Kenta Maeda, Cueto is the club's best bet to move the needle in terms of making a splash in free agency between now and the 2017 offseason. What do you think? Is the price plus the pick too much, or would it be worth it to add an ace?

I think ultimately that's who Santana will be for the '16 Twins, which is valuable since the club likes to carry a short bench. But, I have no confidence of his plate discipline ever improving if he's a part-time player. He's probably going to feel more pressure to do something in his limited at bats and remain overly aggressive.

Very true, that statement was aimed to be more about him still not taking walks against inferior pitching. I originally had that note higher up in the article, moved it back and didn't tweak the lead in.

Last we saw Danny Santana he was riding the bench, lucky to get a handful of at- bats a week as a September call-up. After a frustrating regular season, he decided to go back to playing winter ball in the Dominican. The results have not been encouraging so far, with many of the 25-year-old's weaknesses still being exposed despite facing inferior talent.The Monte Plata product has had a particularly lousy week with the glove. Tuesday evening, Santana committed his fifth error in as many contests. All five of those errors have come at second base, a position he's only seen limited time at in the minors, but the poor glove work serves as further evidence that Santana is ill- equipped as an infielder. Obviously, you can't read much into any winter league stats, but taking Santana's 2015 regular season showing into account, I think it would be best if the Twins completely gave up on him ever becoming an everyday major league shortstop. I had assumed the club made that determination when Santana was sent down to Rochester in late July, handing the everyday job back to the steady Eduardo Escobar. But when game 162 came around and Paul Molitor was filling out a lineup card of mostly reserves, he penciled Santana in at short, moving Escobar over to second base. That indicated to me that the club is neither sold of\n Escobar as its shortstop nor convinced that Santana is doomed at the position. With how poorly Santana hit in 2015, it almost went unnoticed that he also managed to commit the ninth-most errors of any shortstop despite making only 65 starts at the position. So, what's ahead for Santana in 2016? Aaron Hicks is out of the picture and it couldn't hurt to get Byron Buxton some more playing time at Triple-A, so I believe Danny Santana's last shot as an everyday player with the Twins (barring injury of course) is as the Opening Day center fielder next season. With a crowded outfield and prospects on the verge, his chance may not last long, but I would like to see Santana get one more real shot as an everyday player, assuming he shows us something between now and Opening Day. It's almost difficult to remember now, but Santana was every bit as electrifying a rookie in 2014 as Eddie Rosario was this past season. That same talent is still there. Things haven't been as disastrous at the dish for Santana in the Dominican, but it also does not appear as though he's is improving on his greatest weakness, either. Including Tuesday night's action, the notoriously aggressive Santana had drawn just one walk in 81 at-bats. Plate discipline often gets better as a player ages, and to find an example of a player turning things around quickly in that department you have to look no further than Eduardo Escobar. After drawing just eight walks over 216 plate appearances in the first half, Escobar managed to tally 20 walks over 230 plate appearances after the break. Obviously that's a small sample, but if Santana could take a similar step forward it would make him much more difficult for opposing pitchers to attack. While it's disappointing to see Santana fail to make strides so far this winter, I'm sure Molitor will give him every opportunity to impress during spring training. But if he can't even make strides in the Dominican League or even the Grapefruit League, his fate could be sealed as a bench player for the rest of his career. Click here to view the article

Last we saw Danny Santana he was riding the bench, lucky to get a handful of at bats a week as a September call up. After a frustrating regular season, he decided to go back to playing winter ball in the Dominican. The results have not been encouraging so far, with many of the 25-year-old's weaknesses still being exposed despite facing inferior talent. The Monte Plata product has had a particularly lousy week with the glove. Tuesday evening, Santana committed his fifth error in as many contests. All five of those errors have come at second base, a position he's only seen limited time at in the minors, but the poor glove work serves as further evidence that Santana is ill equipped as an infielder. Obviously, you can't read much into any winter league stats, but taking Santana's 2015 regular season showing into account, I think it would be best if the Twins completely gave up on him ever becoming an everyday Major League shortstop. I had assumed the club made that determination when Santana was sent down to Rochester in late July, handing the everyday job back to the steady Eduardo Escobar. But when Game 162 came around and Paul Molitor was filling out a lineup card of mostly reserves, he penciled Santana in at short, moving Escobar over to second base. That indicated to me that the club is neither sold of Escobar as its shortstop nor convinced that Santana is doomed at the position. With how poorly Santana hit in 2015, it almost went unnoticed that he also managed to commit the ninth-most errors of any shortstop despite making only 65 starts at the position. So, what's ahead for Santana in 2016? Aaron Hicks is out of the picture and it couldn't hurt to get Byron Buxton some more playing time at Triple-A, so I believe Danny Santana's last shot as an everyday player with the Twins (barring injury of course) is as the Opening Day center fielder next season. With a crowded outfield and prospects on the verge, his chance may not last long, but I would like to see Santana get one more real shot as an everyday player assuming he shows us something between now and Opening Day. It's almost difficult to remember now, but Santana was every bit as electrifying a rookie in 2014 as Eddie Rosario was this season. That same talent is still there. Things haven't been as disastrous at the dish for Santana in the Dominican, but it also does not appear as though he's is improving on his greatest weakness, either. Including Tuesday night's action, the notoriously aggressive Santana had drawn just one walk in 81 at bats. Plate discipline often gets better as a player ages, and to find an example of a player turning things around quickly in that department you have to look no further than Eduardo Escobar. After drawing just eight walks over 216 plate appearances in the first half, Escobar managed to tally 20 walks over 230 plate appearances after the break. Obviously that's a small sample, but if Santana could take a similar step forward it would obviously make him much more difficult for opposing pitchers to attack. While it's disappointing to see Santana fail to make strides so far this winter, I'm sure Molitor will give him every opportunity to impress during spring training. But if he can't even make strides in the Dominican League or even the Grapefruit League, his fate could be sealed as a bench player for the rest of his career.

That's a good point, and there's definitely an argument Shields isn't even better than those guys today. Combining Duffy and May's starts (disregarding May's relief work), you get a 3.88 ERA, 1.35 WHIP. Shields had a 3.91 ERA and 1.33 WHIP last year ... in the NL ... pitching his home games in a notorious pitcher's park.

Twins fans have been trying to dream up ways to get rid of Ricky Nolasco and his nightmare contract basically from the moment the ink dried on his signature.That exercise has usually entailed finding a similarly terrible contract to swap. After a disappointing first season in San Diego, James Shields' name has been often floated out as a target of late.My immediate reaction to a potential Nolasco for Shields trade is it would be a dream swap for the Twins. After looking into it further, and considering the long-term ramifications, I'm not even convinced I'd pull the trigger on a straight up swap if I was Terry Ryan. Yes, Shields is the superior pitcher, but his contract carries far more risk going forward. The Twins still owe Nolasco $25 million ($12 million the next two seasons followed by a $1 million buyout), but Shields still has $65 million left on his deal ($21 million over the next three years and a $2 million buyout for the fourth). That $40 extra million surely could be better spent elsewhere, and while getting rid of Nolasco is an enticing idea, taking on Shields may be a subtraction by addition. Beyond the financial commitment, there are huge question marks surrounding Shields and some reason for optimism for Nolasco. Shields had a 3.91 ERA, gave up a league-high 33 homers and actually had a higher FIP (4.45) in 2015 than the mark Nolasco has posted over his two seasons in Minnesota (4.15). He also had a worse strikeout-to-walk ratio over the same time frames (2.67 to Nolasco's 2.88). Nolasco has been a disaster so far in his time with the Twins, but he may have been a victim of some bad luck as well. His BABIPs the past two seasons have been .392 and .351. He is always going to give up a higher than average amount of hard contact, but I would expect his BABIP to fall more toward his career mark of .314. Shields, in case you were wondering, had a .299 BABIP last season. With all that said, I would certainly still expect Shields to be the superior pitcher in 2016. He also has a reputation of being a positive influence on a pitching staff and has been an absolute horse, pitching more than 200 innings nine-straight seasons. My worry is in '15 we started seeing the beginning of the end and all that work has started to pile up on his arm. If nothing else, Nolasco should be at least have a fresh arm after throwing just 37.1 innings last season. And if we're going to address intangibles and credit Shields for his leadership, Nolasco should also get a tip of the cap for working his way back from an ankle injury to start the final game of the season when he had very little incentive to push to return prior to the season's end. Also, if I'm the Twins I'm trying to move Nolasco for anything but another starting pitcher. There's no question Tyler Duffey deserves to start the '16 season in the rotation, I would also prefer to see Trevor May starting again and Jose Berrios has very little (if anything ) to prove in the minors. What do you think? Am I crazy? Would you trade Nolasco for Shields straight up? Click here to view the article

Twins fans have been trying to dream up ways to get rid of Ricky Nolasco and his nightmare contract basically from the moment the ink dried on his signature. That exercise has usually entailed finding a similarly terrible contract to swap. After a disappointing first season in San Diego, James Shields' name has been often floated out as a target of late. My immediate reaction to a potential Nolasco for Shields trade is it would be a dream swap for the Twins. After looking into it further, and considering the long-term ramifications, I'm not even convinced I'd pull the trigger on a straight up swap if I was Terry Ryan. Yes, Shields is the superior pitcher, but his contract carries far more risk going forward. The Twins still owe Nolasco $25 million ($12 million the next two seasons followed by a $1 million buyout), but Shields still has $65 million left on his deal ($21 million over the next three years and a $2 million buyout for the fourth). That $40 extra million surely could be better spent elsewhere, and while getting rid of Nolasco is an enticing idea, taking on Shields may be a subtraction by addition. Beyond the financial commitment, there are huge question marks surrounding Shields and some reason for optimism for Nolasco. Shields had a 3.91 ERA, gave up a league-high 33 homers and actually had a higher FIP (4.45) in 2015 than the mark Nolasco has posted over his two seasons in Minnesota (4.15). He also had a worse strikeout-to-walk ratio over the same time frames (2.67 to Nolasco's 2.88). Nolasco has been a disaster so far in his time with the Twins, but he may have been a victim of some bad luck as well. His BABIPs the past two seasons have been .392 and .351. He is always going to give up a higher than average amount of hard contact, but I would expect his BABIP to fall more toward his career mark of .314. Shields, in case you were wondering, had a .299 BABIP last season. With all that said, I would certainly still expect Shields to be the superior pitcher in 2016. He also has a reputation of being a positive influence on a pitching staff and has been an absolute horse, pitching more than 200 innings nine-straight seasons. My worry is in '15 we started seeing the beginning of the end and all that work has started to pile up on his arm. If nothing else, Nolasco should be at least have a fresh arm after throwing just 37 1/3 innings last season. And if we're going to address intangibles and credit Shields for his leadership, Nolasco should also get a tip of the cap for working his way back from an ankle injury to start the final game of the season when he had very little incentive to push to return prior to the season's end. Also, if I'm the Twins I'm trying to move Nolasco for anything but another starting pitcher. There's no question Tyler Duffey deserves to start the '16 season in the rotation, I would also prefer to see Trevor May starting again and Jose Berrios has very little (if anything ) to prove in the minors. What do you think? Am I crazy? Would you trade Nolasco for Shields straight up?

Beginning to think another misconception is that Plouffe has real value on the trade market. Maybe other teams are just not interested.

The first domino has fallen for the Minnesota Twins' 2015-16 offseason, and while some feel the club's (pending) addition of Korean homer machine Byung-ho Park will force the front office to trade Trevor Plouffe, I think it will actually give the front office more flexibility for the year ahead. The Twins still have to sign Park to a contract, they've only won exclusive rights to negotiate with him at this point, but from what reputable media outlets are reporting that shouldn't be an issue. Park's addition would give the Twins another option in an already extremely crowded first base/designated hitter field. Yes, trading Plouffe and inserting Miguel Sano as the everyday third baseman would solve that problem (if you can call it that). The thing I'd be scared about is what happens then if Sano misses some time, or just can't cut it defensively? Do we see Eduardo Escobar slide over to third and Danny Santana or Jorge Polanco get a shot at shortstop? Everyday Eduardo Nunez? Ugh. Trading Plouffe would be a big hit to the team's depth. The "problem" with keeping Plouffe and moving Sano to the outfield is there is already depth there, though admittedly a lack of anyone I'd consider established. Off the Baggy did a great breakdown of what Sano in the outfield would mean to the rest of the guys in the picture, so I'll direct you there instead of rehashing that post. The Pittsburgh Pirates created a similar roster jam of their own when they signed Jung-ho Kang out of Korea last season. Kang started the year on the Pirates' bench serving as a utility player, but a combination of injuries to other infielders and continued improvement resulted him becoming an everyday player. He was one of Pittsburgh's best hitters down the stretch, posting a .931 OPS in the second half. Perhaps the Twins would be best served to put Park in a similar low pressure, low expectation role to begin 2016. After all, even the biggest Park supporters are admitting he'll likely go through an adjustment period. I see him starting the season playing regularly but not everyday at DH while getting a cameo at 1B here and there. Keeping Plouffe and giving Sano a look in the OF would also give Paul Molitor plenty of options to ride out streaks, give guys extra days off or survive an injury or two. One thing about the 2015 Twins lineup is it was remarkably healthy, that may not be the case again in '16. There will very likely come a time in which trading Plouffe will be the right thing to do for the Twins. It may be as soon as the 2016 trade deadline, but it's not right now. This team still has huge holes at catcher and in the bullpen, but why not hold on to in house assets and fill those in free agency? Keeping Plouffe around gives the team time to figure out where Sano's going to end up in the field, evaluate the young guys who have shown flashes but are not established and allows for Park to have an adjustment period. It's the right move. For now.

I really like Bethancourt as a potential long-term solution at catcher. I know Atlanta is down on his handling of the staff and game calling, but those are Kurt Suzuki's strengths, so pairing them together for 2016 could result in some further development in those areas. In 143 career games at Triple-A, Bethancourt has hit .299/.327/.435 with 12 homers and last season between Atlanta and Gwinette he thew out 23 of 52 base stealers (44%).

I'd have to agree that Hicks is locked into a spot, but should he be? He's had one really good month in three seasons. I hope we see more of what he did this July, but with so many other options he should be on a short leash going forward.

I'd rather see them hold on to talent that's already in house than make trades, and it seems like a safer bet to spend on a catcher than a reliever (those being the biggest areas of need). I wouldn't be shocked if Wieters' best days are ahead of him. He was raking before getting hurt in '14 and finished strong this season. Anybody else see that potential, or am I seeing a mirage?