Tom Froemming

The more I look into the numbers, the more fascinating Hector Santiago becomes. Since 2013, there have been 81 pitchers who've thrown 500 innings. He ranks ... 1st with a 49.0 fly ball % 2nd with a 17.5 line drive % 6th with a 12.6 infield fly ball % 6th with a .271 BABIP 14th with a 76.8 LOB% He is elite in the areas he excels in. On the ugly side, only Liriano and Ubaldo have a worse BB/9 than Santiago's 3.94 over that span. But I think that may be part of his strategy. He keeps guys off balance and doesn't challenge hitters when the count's in their advantage ... or maybe he just has terrible command and has been scraping by on a high-wire act that's unsustainable.

Thank you for bringing that to the table. Of 152 pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings combined over the past two seasons, Santiago ranks 16th with a 78.3 LOB%. Nolasco is dead last at 62%. But Hector was particularly fantastic at leaving men on in 2015. This season is very solid, but definitely less impressive. Santiago's 75.9 LOB% is 39th among the 98 pitchers with at least 100 innings. Nolasco is 95th at 64.5%.

In the wake of the Twins acquiring Hector Santiago from the Angels, some have questioned how big of an upgrade he'll be over Ricky Nolasco, mainly pointing to Nolasco's vastly superior numbers in terms of FIP (fielding independent pitching). While the peripheral stats may be in Nolasco's favor, they don't tell the whole story. The biggest divide between these two players is how they bear down when things start to not go in their favor. If you take a look into how each pitcher performs with runners on, it's clear that while Nolasco crumbles, Santiago shines Career FIP vs. ERA Santiago: 4.63 FIP, 3.68 ERA (0.95 worse) Nolasco: 3.85 FIP, 4.58 ERA (0.73 better) So you can see that both pitchers have been FIP busters, with Santiago looking a great deal worse than the ERA he has pitched to. These kinds of gaps are abnormal for veteran pitchers. Just for reference, Ervin Santana's FIP and ERA are only off by a difference of 0.11 over his career (4.24 FIP, 4.13 ERA). FIP is a great indicator of pitcher performance because it only looks at home runs, walks, hit batsmen and strikeouts. As the name would indicate, any plays in which defense is a factor are not taken into account. Another thing FIP doesn't take into account, however, is game situation. Obviously, it's better to not allow batters to reach safely, but Santiago has limited damage with runners on at an elite level. Even just skimming the surface it's easy to see this is where Santiago gains a considerable amount of value over Nolasco. Career with men on base Santiago: .216/.322/.336 (.658 OPS) Nolasco: .294/.345/.448 (.793) Career with RISP Santiago: .184/.300/.271 (.571) Nolasco: .287/.347/.437 (.784) Career with 2 outs and RISP Santiago: .173/.310/.248 (.558) Nolasco: .264/.355/.397 (.752) To put some perspective on just how excellent those numbers are for Santiago, Johan Santana was only slightly better over his career with men on base (.647 OPS) but not nearly as good with RISP (.623) or with RISP and two outs (.606). Santiago's greatest weakness is walks, and looking at his excellent July it's a wonder how he managed to put up such great results with how many free passes he issued. But, while he did walk 21 batters, in the following at bat opponents went just 1-for-18 with eight strikeouts and two walks (for those of you tallying things up at home, he was pulled for a reliever after one of those walks). That is a small sample, but it shows a slice of how effective Santiago can be at stepping up, wiggling out of jams and neutralizing the walks. There are people who don't believe in the concept of clutch, or even pitchers adjusting their approach based on game situation (pitching to the score for example). But after over 650 career innings, it seems like a stretch to look at Santiago's excellent track record in adverse situations and just say he's just been lucky. He clearly is unfazed by the pressure of pitching with men on base. Hector Santiago plays with fire but rarely gets burned. If he can continue to demonstrate this skill, he should also continue to outperform Ricky Nolasco with ease.

I think Santiago isn't as good as his ERA has indicated over the past few years, but I like the flexibility he gives the club. If they decide they don't want him around next year, they can just non-tender him. With Nolasco they were gonna be on the hook for his 2017 salary either way. If they keep Santiago next year and are sellers again, he could be a decent trade chip at the '17 deadline. Or if they're contenders and he pitches well, Santiago could be a qualifying offer candidate after the end of next season and net the Twins a draft pick. Some will probably laugh that off, but if Ian Kennedy can reject a QO and sign a multi-year deal, anything's possible in my eyes. This is all obviously looking way far ahead, but it certainly appears Antony has opened up some doors with this move that were never going to be there with Nolasco.

Gotta be a Lucroy trade coming .. then Suzuki goes?

An Erv deal with Hutchison as the centerpiece would not excite me. He's only under team control for two more seasons, same as Santana. But I suppose that may be an indication the team isn't confident Ervin will hold up that much longer.

John Sickels took an in depth look at Pat Light this April, here's the link: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/4/25/11500342/boston-red-sox-rookie-pat-light-scouting-report His conclusion: "Overall, if Light maintains his control he should be a useful bullpen asset. If his command maxes out he could close games eventually."

Some quick thoughts ... -Twins are in a great position with Erv. Teams know we're not motivated to move him and the SP market appears to be pretty dry judging by the names on the rumor mill. -I'm sure the team has had advanced talks regarding Suzuki with multiple clubs. They have no incentive to hustle to get a deal done prior to Lucroy being traded. Wait for that shoe to drop and see if it makes anybody desperate. -I don't think anybody's drooling over Kintzler or Abad, but the RP market has already been thinned out more than any other position. I wouldn't expect much in return, but anytime you can flip a minor singing like that into a prospect it's a good deal. Even if they're not dealt today, I think either of these guys could be waiver trade candidates. -I love what Kennys Vargas has shown of late, but is now the time to sell high? There's not enough room for him, Mauer and Park all on the same roster, and I think Vargas has the most trade value of that group right now.

I say third base. If he could play short, they never would have moved him off the position. The team hopes to compete sometime over the next 2 years, so I expect Dozier to stay. Plouffe should be traded at next month's waiver trade deadline, and it's sinking in for me that Miguel Sano is going to be a man without a position. Instead of trying to fit him into the team's needs, they should put him in the best position to succeed, which unfortunately is DH. Obviously that's going to muddy things up for Vargas and Park (Mauer's not going anywhere), but it does open the door for Polanco to play 3B everyday.

Great to see a young but near MLB-ready starter coming back for Nunez. The ERA doesn't look as sterling since his promotion to Triple-A (4.20), but Mejia's 9.5 K/9 and 3.91 K/BB ratio over seven starts at Sacramento are very nice. Plus the PCL is a hitter's league. Atta boy Antony. Sad to see Nunie go, but I think he'll fit in nicely with the Giants.

Yeah I struggled with the best way to put that. Let me try to make that point again. In 2013 the Twins got Kohl Stewart at No. 4. That's great, he's got plenty of potential, and as a 21-year-old in Double-A the book's still out on him, obviously. But if the Twins were just a bit crappier that year and picked second, they would have had the opportunity to draft Kris Bryant, who is already a ROY, two-time All-Star and possibly the favorite for NL MVP. Who knows, maybe the Twins would've taken Stewart anyway. But the difference between going 66-96 in 2012 instead of 61-101 (the Cubs record that year) cost them the opportunity to even consider drafting Bryant. Was it worth 5 wins in a lost season? I'd definitely say no.

When I say tank, I'm thinking like in the movie Major League Ownership completely handcuffs the organization in an effort to lose as many games as possible. Except in this scenario we're trying to get the no. 1 pick/ International bonus slot, not move the team to Miami.

I've been struggling with Santana as well. Two more years of Erv is looking very attractive right now The rotation is still the biggest weakness in my eyes, so it doesn't seem smart to thin out that group even further. On the other hand, I do worry about him breaking down. He's 33 and has a lot of mileage on that arm. Would be a shame if he falls off and the team missed out on an opportunity to trade him at his peak.

I've only glanced through some 2017 draft coverage, but it doesn't look like there's an automatic 1st pick. But, even picking as high as they have recently, the Twins have missed out on the opportunity to draft the likes of Carlos Correa , Kris Bryant, Carlos Rodon and Kyle Schwarber, just to cherry pick the big names with MLB experience. It's certainly possible the team would've still taken Buxton, Stewart and Gordon over those guys in their respective drafts anyway (and it's still way too early to make conclusions on any of those players yet) but it's always nice to have your pick of the litter, even when there's not an obvious choice at No. 1 overall.

That was a fun win. Hopefully that performance will help Gibby turn the corner. To me, he's is one of the more important players to the Twins future, as he isn't a free agent until 2020.

Correct, this was originally posted to the blogs section Thursday afternoon, prior to the start of the Boston series.

After getting off to the worst start in franchise history, the Twins appear to be turning things around this month, but is that something fans should be excited about? It seems like a crazy question, but when you look at the big picture could it be in the best interest of the team's future to tank the rest of the season?In MLB there is nothing but incentive to tanking a season. The worse your record is the higher up you draft and the bigger your allotted bonus pool is to divvy out to those picks. Same deal with international spending, the worse you do the more money you can spend without incurring penalties. And it's not like these are small margins. The Phillies, who were the worst team in baseball last year, had over $4 million more to spend in the draft (per MLB.com) and over $1.5 million to spend on the international market (per Baseball America) than the Brewers, who were the 5th-worst team last season. The moral of the story is if you're going to be terrible it pays off to be the worst. With the 2016 season already sunk, is there any reason to root for the Twins to turn things around? Personally, I'm not so sure, and the team's performance over its last 15 games has me feeling conflicted. Beginning with their 17-5 rout of the Rangers on July 2, the Twins are 10-5 and have outscored their opponents 94-53. The pitching staff hasn't given up more than 6 runs in any game over that stretch, and the offense is clicking after a number of personnel changes. Max Kepler and Brian Dozier have been two of the best hitters in baseball over that stretch and the pitching staff has the fourth-lowest ERA (3.23) this month. In a lost season, you're put in an awkward position as a fan. Rooting against your own team seems like a rotten, unthinkable thing to do, but tanking may be the best thing for the future. But how does a team tank? You're never going to get the manager, coaches or any of the players behind the idea of giving away games. I suppose a massive, roster-crippling fire sale could do the trick. On the other hand, if the team keeps performing well it's certainly possible that a strong finish to 2016 could carry over. A positive finish to the season could make the long winter seem a little brighter and is only going to help the team attract free agents, if that's the route the new GM decides to take to improving the roster. Nobody is going to want to sign with the worst team in the league. Speaking of the new GM, could the way the Twins perform over the next two months also have an influence over what kind of candidates would be interested in the job? And if that's the case, which would be more attractive to the future GM: a young team on the upswing or the No. 1 pick in the draft? It's definitely something to keep in mind. What do you think? Would you rather see the Twins tank, or end on a high note? Click here to view the article

I've only glanced through some 2017 draft coverage, but it doesn't look like there's a Bryce Harper-type automatic 1st pick. But, even picking as high as they have recently, the Twins have missed out on the opportunity to draft the likes of Carlos Correa , Kris Bryant, Carlos Rodon and Kyle Schwarber, just to cherry pick the big names with MLB experience. It's certainly possible the team would've still taken Buxton, Stewart and Gordon over those guys in their respective drafts, but it's always nice to have your pick of the litter, even when there's not an obvious choice at No. 1 overall.

Sounds good to me! One way or another the prospects need to come up/stay in the lineup. Who cares if Buxton hits .200 and Berrios has an ERA over 10 the next two months? Those guys have nothing to prove or learn in Triple-A, and if we lose because of their struggles it's not like it matters at this point anyway. It would be great to see some of the other guys mentioned in Seth's recent "It's Time!" piece come up too.

After getting off to the worst start in franchise history, the Twins appear to be turning things around this month, but is that something fans should be excited about? It seems like a crazy question, but when you look at the big picture could it be in the best interest of the team's future to tank the rest of the season? In the MLB there is nothing but incentives to tanking a season. The worse your record is the higher up you draft and the bigger your allotted bonus pool is to divvy out to those picks. Same deal with international spending, the worse you do the more money you can spend without incurring penalties. And it's not like these are small margins. The Phillies, who were the worst team in baseball last year, had over $4 million more to spend in the draft (per MLB.com) and over $1.5 million to spend on the international market (per Baseball America) than the Brewers, who were the 5th-worst team last season. The moral of the story is if you're going to be terrible it pays off to be the worst. With the 2016 season already sunk, is there any reason to root for the Twins to turn things around? Personally, I'm not so sure, and the team's performance over its last 15 games has me feeling conflicted. Beginning with their 17-5 rout of the Rangers on July 2, the Twins are 10-5 and have outscored their opponents 94-53. The pitching staff hasn't given up more than 6 runs in any game over that stretch, and the offense is clicking after a number of personnel changes. Max Kepler and Brian Dozier have been two of the best hitters in baseball over that stretch and the pitching staff has the fourth-lowest ERA (3.23) this month. In a lost season, you're put in an awkward position as a fan. Rooting against your own team seems like a rotten, unthinkable thing to do, but tanking may be the best thing for the future. But how does a team tank? You're never going to get the manager, coaches or any of the players behind the idea of giving away games. I suppose a massive, roster-crippling fire sale could do the trick. On the other hand, if the team keeps performing well it's certainly possible that a strong finish to 2016 could carry over. A positive finish to the season could make the long winter seem a little brighter and is only going to help the team attract free agents, if that's the route the new GM decides to take in improving the roster. Nobody is going to want to sign with the worst team in the league. Speaking of the new GM, could the way the Twins perform over the next two months also have an influence over what kind of candidates would be interested in the job? And if that's the case, which would be more attractive to the future GM: a young team on the upswing or the No. 1 pick in the draft? It's definitely something to keep in mind. What do you think? Would you rather see the Twins tank, or end on a high note?

Nice work here Seth. This really highlights how many guys there are already in their mid-20s in the upper levels of the Twins system. What are they waiting for? I didn't realize Garver was already 25. I know catchers take longer to develop than other positions, but at the very least he needs to be promoted to Triple A. Along with those nice batting lines you referenced, he's thrown out 51% of would be base stealers, which is elite.

When Ryan walked away in '07 the timing always struck me as odd. Seems awfully convenient for the guy to step down prior to an offseason in which Hunter was leaving and Johan was going to be traded. I'm sure he had his reasons, but it was a tough spot for Bill Smith to step into. I agree with some of the other comments suggesting this change means a big roster turnover is coming. I bet Ryan was hoping to hold on to any assets that could be of value next season (which is understandable from his point of view) while other high-ranking decision makers are prepared for more of a rebuild.

It's never good when a baseball team leads you to research the stages of grief, but that's exactly the type of thing the 2016 Twins are inspiring. Here's how my grieving through the 2016 season has gone so far. Stage 1: Denial and Isolation Last time I checked in, I was looking for hope with the Twins at 0-8. I wrote that there was plenty of time to turn things around and way too early to be looking for the panic button. When the turnaround didn't happen, I had no interest in investigating why until I went through some further stages of grief. Stage 2: Anger I haven't punched through any walls, burned my Twins gear or anything like that, but lets just say my language has deteriorated and I get a certain twitch in the corner of my left eye anytime someone asks about the Twins. Stage 3: Bargaining Also in my last article, I did some optimistic math. It was almost as if I was trying to convince myself 0-8 was a non-issue. "Well, it took 86 wins to get into the postseason last year. So if you were expecting the Twins to hit that mark, through eight games you would have projected them to have, what, four maybe five wins. So basically all they have to do is win one extra game each month than you would have originally expected." Stage 4: Depression My low point here came during Wednesday's 9-2 defeat at the hands of the Orioles. It was rainy, cold and the team played like garbage. There were several big school groups of kids cheering their little hearts out to no avail, which somehow made everything even more sad. But hey, a day at the ballpark always beats a day at the office and my wife and I got put on the kiss cam, so there's that. Stage 5: Acceptance I think I'm finally starting my journey into accepting the fact the 2016 Twins are a bad team. Furthermore, I'm starting to question if it was foolish to have ever expected them to compete for the playoffs. I have many fond memories from last season, but the way things were at the end of that magical May definitely overshadowed everything else and seems to have blinded me from the bigger picture. Unfortunately, that was a mirage. At the end of last May, the Twins were 30-19. From there, they went 53-60. Another part of my bargaining revolved around how the bad start was just a small sample size. And through just 34 games this season, you could still pound that drum to some extent. But, if we combine their 8-26 record so far this year with the poor finish in '15, you get a 61-86 (.415) record. Tough to call a 147 game stretch a small sample size. Uh oh, I think I'm slipping back into the depression stage. Of course, this is just a tongue and cheek look into the season so far. If a lousy baseball team is most depressing thing in my life right now, things are going pretty darn well. Plus, the Twins will play better. There's no way they lose 120 games this season, right? Oh boy, am I back to denial? I thought I was doing so well. It's a process.

There isn't a whole lot you can look back at and be positive about from the Twins 0-8 start this season, but here comes the sun (do do do do). There's a string of 70-degree temperatures coming up, and things can only go up from here for the Twins. Yes, it's lame to write about the weather, but you can't be a Minnesotan and not talk about the weather, especially when it's good. Just like you can't say here comes the sun and not add in the do do do do part. Anyway, the biggest bright spot for the Twins is there are 154 games left. Let that really sink in. I don't think even lifelong, hardcore baseball fans are good at truly wrapping their minds around how ridiculously long the season is. You wouldn't make a conclusion about a football team after the first 3 quarters of their opening game, right? That's roughly the equivalent of where the Twins are in their season. Things look bad, but I promise it's not time to hit the panic button yet. You'll surely hear all sorts of depressing stats about the history of teams who started 0-8. But you know what? The history of those teams has absolutely nothing to do with how the 2016 Minnesota Twins are going to play over their next 154 games. An 0-8 team has never done this, an 0-8 team has never done that ... who cares? While they didn't start 0-8, there are examples of teams that ended up with good seasons after getting off on the wrong foot. The 2011 Tampa Bay Rays started the year 1-8 and ended up making the playoffs with 91 wins. Last season, the Texas Rangers got off to a 7-15 start and were eventually the AL West champions. If you want to stick with Twins history, the 1991 team got off to a 2-9 start. Anybody remember how that team ended up? Of course you do, but I'm going to remind you anyway because in times like these we need to remember baseball can be fun. That team got things straightened out, but it took time. Even at the end of May their record was only 23-25. From there on, they went 72-42, taking the AL West and eventually becoming World Series Champions. It's true. The Twins were really good once upon a time. Like, the best in the World. Seems hard to believe right now, I know, but you can Google it if you don't want to take my word for it. Looking for something more recent? Well, I would argue that the 2015 Twins actually had a worse first eight games than this season's team. Sure, they at least won two games over that span, but the 2015 Twins were outscored 46-19. This year's club has a slightly more palatable 33-13 deficit in the runs scored column. And I know you remember what happened to that team. Those guys, who look a heck of a lot like this year's guys, won 83 games. No, there is no ring ceremony for finishing over .500, but it was a really fun season. Time is still on the Twins' side. I, like I'm sure many of you, was expecting to see the Twins win a Wild Card this season. After the slow start, what do they have to do to get there? Well, it took 86 wins to get into the postseason last year. So if you were expecting the Twins to hit that mark, through eight games you would have projected them to have, what, four maybe five wins. So basically all they have to do is win one extra game each month than you would have originally expected. Doesn't seem crazy when you break it down like that right? Of course all this is ignoring the myriad problems from the first eight games and assuming this has just been a series of games played by the bizarro Twins, and the real team we expected for 2016 will show up at any moment. But, when you're sitting at 0-8 it's a heck of a lot more fun to look forward in hope than it is to look back in disgust.